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Post by volleytology on Nov 25, 2011 15:11:53 GMT -5
Automatic Qualifiers (31):
AEC Albany
A10 Dayton
ACC FSU
ASun Lipscomb
B12 Texas
BE Cincinnati
BSky Northern Colorado
BSouth Liberty
B10 Nebraska
BWest Long Beach St
CAA Delaware
CUSA Tulsa
HL UW-Milwaukee
Ivy Yale
MAAC Niagara
MAC CMU
MEAC MD-Eastern Shore
MVC Northern Iowa
MWC CSU
NEC Sacred Heart
OVC Morehead St
PAC12 USC
Patriot American
SEC Tennessee
Southern Samford
Southland Tex State
SWAC Jax St
Summit NDSU
Sun Belt WKU
WCC Pepperdine
WAC Hawaii
At-Large IN (RPI):
1. Illinois 1
2. Iowa St 2
3. Purdue 5
4. Minnesota 10
5. Penn St 11
6. Kentucky 12
7. UCLA 15
8. Stanford 16
9. Northern Illinois 17
10. Texas A&M 19
11. Florida 20
12. Michigan 23
13. Miami 24
14. Oregon 25
15. San Diego 26
16. K-State 27
17. Oklahoma 28
18. Michigan St 29
19. Washington 30
20. Missouri 32
21. North Carolina 33
22. Cal 34
23. Arizona 43
24. Ohio State 49
25. Baylor 45
26. Louisville 38 bubble in
27. Duke 41 bubble in
28. Wichita St 46 bubble in
29. St. Mary's 51 bubble in
30. Middle Tennessee St 48 bubble in
31. Western Michigan 35 bubble in
32. Marquette 39 bubble in
33. Ball State 36 bubble in
6 teams for 3 spots
*West Mich 35 bubble: 3-4 top 50; best OOC wins Marq, UWMil
*Ball State 36 bubble: 2-5 top 50; best OOC win IPFW
*Marquette 39 bubble: 2-8 top 50; best OOC wins MTSU, UWMil
Notre Dame 54 bubble: 2-8 top 50; best OOC wins Wisc, WMU
Clemson 55 bubble: 2-8 top 50; best OOC win Furman
TCU 58 bubble: 2-2 top 50; best OOC win Baylor
Burst bubbles: Missouri State (42), Kansas (47), UCSB (56), Ohio (57), BYU (59), NMSU (62), Arkansas (63)
Seeded Teams:
1 USC
16 Florida*
8 UCLA
9 Florida State
4 Texas
13 Minnesota*
5 Illinois
12 Northern Iowa
2 Nebraska
15 Kentucky*
7 Purdue
10 Iowa State
3 Hawaii*
14 Stanford
6 Penn State
11 Tennessee
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Post by abugslife on Nov 25, 2011 16:09:33 GMT -5
Here are how the top 16 are seeded by RPI which would change the seedings you have:
1 Illinois Big Ten 25-4 9-3 4- 0 12-1 0-0
2 Iowa St. Big 12 22-4 11-3 2- 0 9-1 0-0
3 Nebraska Big Ten 23-3 7-3 2- 0 14-0 0-0
4 Texas Big 12 20-4 7-3 1- 1 12-0 0-0
5 Purdue Big Ten 25-4 6-3 4- 0 15-1 0-0
6 UNI Missouri Valley 30-1 12-0 4- 0 14-1 0-0
7 Hawaii Western Athletic 26-1 7-0 0- 0 19-1 0-0
8 Florida St. Atlantic Coast 24-5 11-2 1- 3 12-0 0-0
9 Southern California Pac-12 24-4 11-2 3- 1 10-1 0-0
10 Minnesota Big Ten 16-11 7-5 3- 2 6-4 0-0
11 Penn St. Big Ten 21-7 6-4 2- 1 13-2 0-0
12 Kentucky Southeastern 26-4 7-3 2- 0 17-1 0-0
13 Tennessee Southeastern 26-3 11-2 3- 1 12-0 0-0
14 Pepperdine West Coast 21-6 8-4 2- 1 11-1 0-0
15 UCLA Pac-12 24-5 10-4 4- 0 10-1 0-0
16 Stanford Pac-12 21-6 8-4 1- 0 12-2 0-0
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Post by volleytology on Nov 25, 2011 16:14:14 GMT -5
You are correct, my seedings are based on what I think the committee will do. I do not believe the RPI will be followed exactly in regards to seeding teams this year. I also believe it's a strong possibility that higher ranked at-large teams may get passed over this year as well.
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Post by ugopher on Nov 25, 2011 16:22:37 GMT -5
I like those seedings. Makes for some good regionals, barring upsets.
The one change I could see is switching Illinois and Purdue. That would put Illinois in Kentucky's regional and Purdue in Minnesota's regional. Only since Illinois and MN have played twice this season while MN and Purdue once.
Maybe switch USC and Nebraska to set up a potential Illinois/Nebraska rematch.
But that would have USC and UCLA flying clear across the country.
What I like, though, is that this could be a wide open tournament.
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Post by volleytology on Nov 25, 2011 16:28:26 GMT -5
I also considered switching Purdue and Illinois, but gave Illinois the higher seed based on their number 1 rpi position. I believe the committee will reward the winners of the Big Ten, PAC 12 and Big 12 with 3 of the top 4 seeds with Hawaii also being seeded very high but will have to escape Stanford, then PSU to make it to San Antonio.
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Post by baywatcher on Nov 25, 2011 16:45:35 GMT -5
If you use Rich Kern's site, he is updating RKPI on a daily basis, so today's ratings, as shown in the RKPI Estimator link, show updated RKPI rank (Stanford out (17), UCLA out (19) before their matches tonight!). But looking at your rankings; I agree in analysis of teams, but by the numbers; Iowa State is #2 RPI; I agree Texas, who beat them twice, will be higher, but Cyclones won't fall 8 places. Probably to the 4-6 range. USC as champs will be high, but RPI is 9 now, so I'm betting to the 4-5 range. Hawaii at 3 is conceivable, but I bet they get plugged in to whatever needs a host and filling from 3-7 or 8. Nebraska as #1 seed seems sound. UCLA could be much lower than 8, down by 13-16, even if they win. Stanford, Kentucky and Florida in the 14-16 range makes sense, filling out the brackets. Waiting to see how the Pac 12 matches go tonight before filling out my seeds and all the brackets.
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Post by ugopher on Nov 25, 2011 16:50:02 GMT -5
I can see the committee saying these are our teams 1-8, these are our teams 9-16 and manuvering them around to meet different travel or match-up desires.
Or, even 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, and 13-16.
In looking at the proposed regions, it could be the that the seedings will be based more upon how the committee sees Minnesota, Florida, and Kentucky than they do Nebraska, USC, Texas, and Hawaii.
Hopefully, they learned their lesson from last year and see three, or even four, of the seeds in a particular region are from the same conference, they move them around a bit.
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Post by volleytology on Nov 25, 2011 16:54:57 GMT -5
Good analysis Baywatcher and UGopher, but I believe UCLA is a much better team than their RPI this year and I believe Iowa State is not nearly as good as their RPI indicates. The committee will evaluate (based on actual results) the top 8 teams and arrange them accordingly so we get the best possible Elite 8 matchups, so the four that emerge will create the best possible Final Four. Traditionally if you look at the top 2-3 teams in the Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC 12, along with Hawaii, you have your top 8-10 seeds every year regardless of RPI.
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Post by vbcoach12 on Nov 25, 2011 16:57:00 GMT -5
Two RPI rankings ago, Missouri State was #38. They've won four more since then, and they're dropped to #42 and ultimately out of this string's NCAA tournament. They've also won 8 of their 10 this year (as opposed to losing four of their last seven going into the tourney in 2010).
I look at MTSU, and they beat Missouri. That makes them in? Even with a loss against #109 Arkansas State? Missouri State beat ASU….
I look at Saint Mary's, and they beat Pepperdine and San Diego, but have a loss to #132 Loyola Marymount. So Saint Mary's beat a team Missouri State lost to, and THEY'RE in for that reason?
The argument about leaving Missouri State out LAST year was that they had no significant wins away from home. Didn't finish the season well, this board said. Yeah, yeah, they beat UNC ("at home") and Texas A&M ("at home, when A&M was down") and Utah (who people THOUGHT were better than they ended up) but they shouldn't be in. Look how they did against lowly Auburn?!? Lost to Illinois State TWICE last year, but people failed to mention that.
Now, we leave Missouri State out because they didn't beat anyone of significance. Kansas State and San Diego were losses, so since there wasn't a win, they should be out.
Just seems like shifting rules to this whole "Who's in" and "Who's out" debate that rages on every year. I'm confused.
Did I get that right? Or am I way off base here?
Better yet, I'll let the people actually qualified to do this to do it…..on Sunday evening when it counts.
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Post by volleytology on Nov 25, 2011 17:02:28 GMT -5
vbcoach, the last 4 teams in this year are very difficult to call. None have a great case. The problem Missouri State has is that they are only 1-6 vs the top 50 and that pales in comparison to some of the other teams they are up against. Also, who a team loses to is really not an important factor, only who they beat. Missouri State is up against Marquette and Ball State for that last spot. If Wisconsin beats Purdue, it eliminates a bubble team I already have in there.
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Post by vbnerd on Nov 25, 2011 17:02:51 GMT -5
I get queasy thinking that Western Michigan and Marquette could make this field. I think Missouri State is probably better than each, as well as the other teams you knocked out, but they didn't score any "big" wins so its tough to make a case for them. I'd even feel better about UCSB (beat St. Mary and Beach) and TCU (beat Baylor and Colorado St) who actually play each other tomorrow. If both win today, I might take that game as a play-in match.
And while we are waiting on results, Marquette plays Northern Illinois tonight. If they can win that one, that would help them pass some of these other teams in my mind.
Also, Hawaii is too high. I suppose it doesn't really matter if they host at the 3 or as the 6, but I don't think Hawaii gets that high. Even with those critiques, I'm nit picking. If we could take this now and send the committee home I think many of us would do just that.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 25, 2011 17:03:51 GMT -5
Good analysis Baywatcher and UGopher, but I believe UCLA is a much better team than their RPI this year and I believe Iowa State is not nearly as good as their RPI indicates. The committee will evaluate (based on actual results) the top 8 teams and arrange them accordingly so we get the best possible Elite 8 matchups, so the four that emerge will create the best possible Final Four. Traditionally if you look at the top 2-3 teams in the Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC 12, along with Hawaii, you have your top 8-10 seeds every year regardless of RPI. history does not show a strong emphasis on the committee giving us "the best possible elite 8 matchups".... If this were the case there would be some pretty big deviations from the rpi. As it's rare that the elite 8 doesn't consist almost entirely of the AVCA top 10 (with perhaps 1 anomaly) whereas it's common that the elite 8 are almost never the top 8 seeds (RPI). |
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 25, 2011 17:06:39 GMT -5
Seeded Teams:
1 Nebraska
16 Florida*
8 UCLA
9 Florida State
4 Texas
13 Minnesota*
5 Illinois
12 Northern Iowa
2 USC
15 Kentucky*
7 Purdue
10 Iowa State
3 Hawaii*
14 Stanford
6 Penn State
11 Tennessee
Co-Sign for this draw, although I don't think it will happen because of the committee's reliance on rpi and some very big moves (like UCLA up to #8 and Iowa State down to #10) but I do like the general matchups.
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Post by volleytology on Nov 25, 2011 17:09:40 GMT -5
AY, I think in your response, you actually made a point against my point, then in the next sentance made my point for me. I think it's hard to make generalizations year to year on the top 8 and whether they are appropriate. Last year was poorly seeded without much "eyeball" tests being done by the committee. I believe a Jim Stone, Andy Banakowski and Cecile Reynaud assisting the committee would be a huge benefit.
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Post by OverAndUnder on Nov 25, 2011 17:13:59 GMT -5
I don't think Hawai'i will get promoted that much higher than their actual RPI unless the Committee does (as some people here claim) try to arrange seeds to help host teams make it back to their Regional.
But since there isn't a ridiculously over-estimated affirmative action east coast RPI team like FSU this year, I think the most likely result is that the 4 #1 seeds will be the top 3 teams in the PAC/B1G/BigXII plus one more team from those conferences given an "at large" #1 seed.
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