Bracketology 11/20

Here's my Bracketology. (I apologize in advance for Mathematical errors, please correct them. I gave the at-large bids with as little bias as possible.) Opinions?

31 Conference Champions (Automatic Bids)
Atlantic Coast-(Florida State or Miami, the loser WILL receive an at-large bid)
America East-Binghamton
Atlantic Sun-East Tennessee State
Atlantic 10-Dayton
Big 10-Penn State
Big 12-Texas
Big East-Louisville
Big Sky-(1 bid conference, only tournament winner will advance)
Big South-Liberty
Big West-Hawaii
Colonial-Hofstra
Conference USA-Tulsa
Horizon-Cleveland St
Ivy League-Yale
Metro Atlantic-Fairfield
Mid American-Bowling Green
Mid Eastern-UMES
Missouri Valley Conference- (Creighton is #1 seed for tournament – but they will burst a bubble if they lose to UNI, Wichita, or anyone else for that matter!)
Mountain West Conference- (Colorado State tied 1st – if they win their last game they are champs)
Northeast-Long Island
Ohio Valley-Belmont
Patriot-Colgate
SEC-Florida
Southern Conference – College of Charleston
Southland-Central Arkansas
Summit-IPFW
Sun Belt-Western Kentucky
SWAC-Jackson St
PAC12-Stanford
WAC--(1 bid conference, only tournament winner will advance)
West Coast-BYU


16 Seeded Teams

Berkeley Regional: (God bless everyone in this regional)
1. Stanford vs. 16. Hawai'i
8. UCLA vs. 9. Southern California

Purdue Regional:
2. Penn State vs. 15. Tennessee
7. Minnesota vs. 10. Florida State

Austin Regional:
3. Texas vs. 14. Florida
6. Kansas vs. 11. Oregon

Omaha Regional:
4. Louisville vs. 13 Brigham Young
5. Nebraska vs. 12 Washington

That leaves 33 spots for the Committee to select at-large bids. Let’s go teams that I consider are locks to the NCAA tournament.

LOCKS

Southern California – PAC 12
UCLA– PAC 12
Oregon– PAC 12
Washington– PAC 12

San Diego - WCC
Saint Mary’s - WCC

(Miami or Florida State) – ACC
North Carolina – ACC

Tennessee – SEC
Texas A&M – SEC
Kentucky – SEC
Arkansas – SEC

Marquette – Big East

Michigan State – Big Ten
Michigan – Big Ten
Purdue – Big Ten
Nebraska – Big Ten
Minnesota –Big Ten
Ohio State – Big Ten

Kansas – Big 12
Kansas State – Big 12
Iowa State – Big 12
Oklahoma – Big 12


After 23 locks – That means there are 10 more spots for bubble teams.

These are all of the Bubble teams by Conference (according to me): 18 total teams

ACC (Clemson, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech)
Big 10 (Northwestern)
Big 12 (Baylor)
Big East (Notre Dame)
Big West (Long Beach State)
WCC (Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara, San Francisco)
PAC-12 (California, Arizona State, Arizona)
SEC (Missouri)
MVC (Northern Iowa, Wichita State)
Mountain West (San Diego State)

What does Pablo think of the bubble teams?

24. California
34. Arizona
36. San Diego State
37. Loyola Marymount
38. Arizona State
39. Northern Iowa
40. Long Beach State
43. Pepperdine
45. NC State
46. Clemson would be the last team in the NCAA tournament if we cutoff using strictly Pablo.
47. Santa Clara
47. Missouri
51. Northwestern
53. Notre Dame
54. Wichita State
56. San Francisco
60. Georgia Tech
62. Baylor


What does the RPI think of the Bubble Teams?

36. Notre Dame
37. Pepperdine
39. California
40. San Diego State
41. Arizona
42. NC State
43. Northern Iowa
44. Wichita State
45. Arizona State
45 Santa Clara
47 Northwestern
48 Loyola Marymount
50 Missouri
51 Baylor
57 Clemson
59 San Francisco
61 Long Beach State
63 Georgia Tech

Now the fun part – what would I do if I were a selection member?

I’ll start by getting rid of the bubble pretenders.

Long Beach State should not make the NCAA tournament. Their RPI is too high for their Pablo to save them and they don’t have any significant victories. Best Win: UC Davis

Georgia Tech should not make the NCAA tournament. Their RPI/pablo are both too high for their Pablo to even be considered really. I'm only listing them because the bubble watch list by IdahoBoy had them on there saying if they finished 4th in ACC they would get in and i'm not sure why? Besides a win over North Carolina their resume is shaky at best.

Clemson should not receive an at-large. Their RPI is too high and their Pablo would just barely squeak them in. They do not have a great victory all season, they just don’t have anything to push them into the tournament compared to other bubble teams. Best win: Duke or Xavier


Baylor is an interesting case. They have a win over California and a win over Kansas – but they don’t have a push in either of the rankings to get in. The other bubble teams look better simply put. The lone victory over Kansas is not near enough.

Missouri has a case with their victory over Tennessee – but losses to Morehead State, Ole Miss, and Georgia will keep them out of the NCAA tournament. They needed some push from Pablo or the RPI.

Northwestern – Going 5-13 over your last 18 games will NOT get you into the NCAA tournament. Sorry Cats.

Now that I’ve eliminated 6 bubble teams – I’d like to say a few that have the advantage on the bubble.



Notre Dame – Notre Dame was ranked much higher but has dropped recently. They have a dangerously high Pablo ranking of 53, but their RPI at 36 should give them a push. That win over Louisville looks good on paper, and they also beat Kansas. No losses that are absolutely horrible.

Pepperdine – The Waves are in. An RPI of 37 with Pablo 43 are borderline rankings – but their wins over Florida State, Saint Mary’s and Ohio State are better than any other bubble teams.

Arizona – The Wildcats are IN the NCAA Tournament. Here’s why: They haven’t lost games they shouldn’t have. They took care of business against Utah (twice), Colorado (twice), and beat ASU. They did however lose to Cal twice which doesn’t look great when fighting with California for a post-season bid. Their win over UCLA does look great for that bid, though.

Arizona State – They have a good chance, I’d put them in over California. Why? Because they beat Cal twice, they have a win over USC, and their losses are not too terrible. Colorado and Wyoming are borderline “very bad losses”. Now – Here’s my reason for not putting them in: They are 5-10 in their last 15 games, with losses coming to Colorado, Utah (twice), and Arizona. But even if they lose to Arizona again and finish 16-15, I still think the Devils will make it into the NCAA tournament.

What does that leave us with? 7 teams fighting for five spots. Who gets them and who sits out of the NCAA tournament?

California – I have California in the NCAA tournament because of their wins over Saint Mary’s, Oregon, and Hawai’i. Those are three great wins that no other bubble team can compare to. Pepperdine comes close, but I’d take Cal’s wins in a heartbeat. The real reason why California is in is that when you look at their losses – they are all reasonable. Their worst loss is Baylor, who is a bubble team.

Loyola Marymount – I might miss on this one, but the Lions are a tournament team to me. Their Pablo is 37 and the Lions earned that. Their Pablo is better than their RPI because of their margin of victory. They lost quite a few games in 5 sets – and played BYU and San Diego closely in 4 matches which they lost. But I am putting Loyola Marymount in the tournament because they have 5 really solid victories: Pepperdine, Santa Clara (twice they SWEPT the Broncos), Saint Mary’s, and Notre Dame. They do have a bad loss to UCSB who’s RPI is 103, but that was the 3rd game of the season.

Santa Clara: How could you deny a team with these victories: They beat BYU, San Diego, Pepperdine, San Diego State, and San Francisco twice. They did lose to LMU twice. But their worst loss is against Pacific – Pablo 79.

For my official prediction of the last three spots of 5 bubble teams – I will have to wait until the conclusion of the MVC tournament. I can’t decide who deserves it more.

It comes down to San Francisco, Northern Iowa, NC State, Wichita State, and San Diego State

Right now – I think I would give the nod to Wichita State and San Diego State because of their impressive victories. San Diego State has an absolutely terrible loss to Nevada whose RPI is in the 250s!!!!


NC State is in a tough spot. They have a recent loss to RPI 153 Wake Forest, also lost to Duke, and are 5-5 in their last 5 games. Here’s what could save their season: Another victory against North Carolina. If they can win again – put them on probably the last team in.

Northern Iowa doesn’t have the victories to match up, but has a good record to make them a good bubble discussion. We'll see how the MVC tourney plays out

I think San Francisco is in a tough place – after beating California (twice), Loyola Marymount (twice) and watching those two teams get NCAA tournament berths. San Francisco also beat Pepperdine. The problem is – their rankings. San Francisco is 59 RPI / 56 Pablo. That’s not going to cut it Dons. Sorry. Also, this is a good year for the West Coast Conference but seven bids from this conference would be insane. San Francisco

Last Four in: Loyola Marymount, San Diego State, Wichita State, Northern Iowa.

First Four out: NC State, Missouri, San Francisco, Baylor