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Volley Talk :: Volleyball :: Women's/Girls' Volleyball Forum :: Breaking down 5-game matches Author Topic: Breaking down 5-game matches (Read 893 times) alantech Fab 50 member is offline Joined: Oct 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 34 Breaking down 5-game matches « Thread Started on Dec 25, 2007, 4:29pm » When a match goes to 5 games, does the team that won Game 4 (or Games 3 and 4, if it lost the first 2) have a momentum-related advantage going into Game 5? My latest VolleyMetrics analysis looks at conference games from the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC during this past women's season, to find out what happened in 5-game matches... http://volleymetrics.blogspot.com/ Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged Chance All-American member is offline "Julie Knytych wants to win, so they are." -TDCincy Joined: Oct 2005 Gender: Male Posts: 1,533 Location: IHTFP Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #1 on Dec 25, 2007, 5:13pm » Is it possible to dig up last year's data to add to that? Anybody have any theories for the statistical advantage of A in ABBA? Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged http://www.tiny.cc/Knytych _________ Rich Kern Volleyball 'Champion' member is offline "Technology; No place for wimps." - Dilbert Joined: Oct 2002 Gender: Male Posts: 389 Location: Lincoln, NE Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #2 on Dec 25, 2007, 6:35pm » I didn't do the 2007 season but I did do this on the 2002 season back in 2003. It is no longer posted and I did a LOT more stats than just what I am showing below but here are some that relate to this subject: Count of matches in database - 3288 Percent of the matches lasting only three games - 55.1% Percent of the matches lasting four games - 28.7% Percent of the matches that go the distance - 16.2% Percent times lose game 1 and win match - 17.8% Percent times lose game 1 and win match in 4 games - 9.5% Percent times lose game 1 and win match in 5 games - 8.3% Percent times lose game 1 & 2 and win match - 3.8% Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged Information on RichKern.com will only continue to be available with your support. Please consider subscribing. schmohawk Fab 50 member is offline Joined: Feb 2005 Posts: 40 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #3 on Dec 26, 2007, 2:42am » every match is different as is each team and their respective matchups-this years final between PS-Stanford showed that-find the answer and you'll have something that every coach will purchase Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged p-dub Volleyball 'Champion' member is offline Bad spellers of the world - untie Joined: Oct 2002 Gender: Female Posts: 8,232 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #4 on Dec 26, 2007, 7:25am » I've done this analysis before, but the search function on this board is lousy so it's hard to find. For the years 2001 - 2005 (4005 5 game matches total), here is how often team A wins given the breakdown AABB: 697-660 = .514 ABAB: 613-633 = .492 ABBA: 711-691 = .507 I don't need significance tests to know that there's no indication that winning game 4 does not provide much (if any) "momentum" into game 5. OTOH, a better idea is to look at the point differential in the first 4 games. For example, if team A outscores team B by more than 15 points, they win 65% of the time. Here is the breakdown > 15: 135-72 = .652 10-15: 324-239 = .575 5-10: 657-515 = .561 2-5: 578-463 = .555 Playing at home gives a little advantage, but not much. Home team records in game 5 were 1637-1569 = .511 Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged udflyerskw Sophomore member is offline Joined: Nov 2007 Posts: 157 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #5 on Dec 26, 2007, 10:20am » I would think that within the power conferences, the result of game five would be more random than taking the total results from all conferences. One of the big differences between power-conference teams and non-power conference teams is mental toughness, knowing how to win and just will to win. Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged chipNdink All-American member is offline Joined: Sept 2004 Posts: 2,396 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #6 on Dec 26, 2007, 1:11pm » I hate the 5th game being only to 15 points. In a rally scoring game, first to 15 is really just a coin toss in my opinion and doesn't prove anything. They should really just play a regular game to 30 (or 25 for international rules), but just with the added switching sides at the halfway mark. Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged ADIDAVB Senior member is offline Joined: Jul 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 571 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #7 on Dec 26, 2007, 2:12pm » Quote: I've done this analysis before, but the search function on this board is lousy so it's hard to find. For the years 2001 - 2005 (4005 5 game matches total), here is how often team A wins given the breakdown AABB: 697-660 = .514 ABAB: 613-633 = .492 ABBA: 711-691 = .507 I don't need significance tests to know that there's no indication that winning game 4 does not provide much (if any) "momentum" into game 5. OTOH, a better idea is to look at the point differential in the first 4 games. For example, if team A outscores team B by more than 15 points, they win 65% of the time. Here is the breakdown > 15: 135-72 = .652 10-15: 324-239 = .575 5-10: 657-515 = .561 2-5: 578-463 = .555 Playing at home gives a little advantage, but not much. Home team records in game 5 were 1637-1569 = .511 so what happens if it goes like this:? BAAB BABA BBAA « Last Edit: Dec 26, 2007, 2:13pm by ADIDAVB » Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged jgrout Cardinal Crowd member is offline Joined: Dec 2004 Gender: Male Posts: 2,258 Location: San Mateo, CA Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #8 on Dec 26, 2007, 5:07pm » Quote: Quote: I've done this analysis before, but the search function on this board is lousy so it's hard to find. For the years 2001 - 2005 (4005 5 game matches total), here is how often team A wins given the breakdown AABB: 697-660 = .514 ABAB: 613-633 = .492 ABBA: 711-691 = .507 I don't need significance tests to know that there's no indication that winning game 4 does not provide much (if any) "momentum" into game 5. OTOH, a better idea is to look at the point differential in the first 4 games. For example, if team A outscores team B by more than 15 points, they win 65% of the time. Here is the breakdown > 15: 135-72 = .652 10-15: 324-239 = .575 5-10: 657-515 = .561 2-5: 578-463 = .555 Playing at home gives a little advantage, but not much. Home team records in game 5 were 1637-1569 = .511 so what happens if it goes like this:? BAAB BABA BBAA BBAA and AABB are the same! BBAA, Humbug! Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged "Leben Sie jetzt die Fragen. Vielleicht leben Sie dann allmählich, ohne es zu merken, eines fernen Tages in die Antwort hinein."... Rilke (R)uffda! Professional member is offline Genuinely Athenian. Joined: May 2009 Gender: Male Posts: 2,553 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #9 on Dec 26, 2007, 5:43pm » It takes a lot out of a team to come back from 0-2. I'd guess any momentum gained is offset by energy spent. Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged All downhill from here. morkfromork Junior member is offline Joined: Jan 2007 Posts: 261 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #10 on Dec 26, 2007, 6:00pm » The 1st team to 8 has an advantage but the 1st team to 15 has the most momentum and advantage:) Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged mikegarrison Professional member is offline Joined: Nov 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 4,264 Location: Covington, WA Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #11 on Dec 26, 2007, 9:49pm » Quote: I've done this analysis before, but the search function on this board is lousy so it's hard to find. For the years 2001 - 2005 (4005 5 game matches total), here is how often team A wins given the breakdown AABB: 697-660 = .514 ABAB: 613-633 = .492 ABBA: 711-691 = .507 I don't need significance tests to know that there's no indication that winning game 4 does not provide much (if any) "momentum" into game 5. OTOH, a better idea is to look at the point differential in the first 4 games. For example, if team A outscores team B by more than 15 points, they win 65% of the time. Here is the breakdown > 15: 135-72 = .652 10-15: 324-239 = .575 5-10: 657-515 = .561 2-5: 578-463 = .555 Playing at home gives a little advantage, but not much. Home team records in game 5 were 1637-1569 = .511 Is the advantage that playing at home give in game 5 more than the advantage it gives in the other games? If not, then the point spread should include it anyway. Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged mikegarrison Professional member is offline Joined: Nov 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 4,264 Location: Covington, WA Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #12 on Dec 26, 2007, 9:54pm » Quote: It takes a lot out of a team to come back from 0-2. I'd guess any momentum gained is offset by energy spent. Either that, or there is no such thing as momentum that transfers across games. Perhaps what can be seen as "momentum" is actually just team A having a bad start for some reason. Once they start playing up to par, the viewers think the team has "gained momentum" and then just rolls. You need some way of being able to tell whether a team is playing below or above expectation. Then you can see if there really is such a thing as "momentum" that enables them to play farther and farther above expectation as the match progresses. Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged ADIDAVB Senior member is offline Joined: Jul 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 571 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #13 on Dec 26, 2007, 11:34pm » Quote: Quote: so what happens if it goes like this:? BAAB BABA BBAA BBAA and AABB are the same! BBAA, Humbug! I know, i was just messing around, being sarcastic, joking, etc...geeeez Link to Post - Back to Top   Logged p-dub Volleyball 'Champion' member is offline Bad spellers of the world - untie Joined: Oct 2002 Gender: Female Posts: 8,232 Re: Breaking down 5-game matches « Reply #14 on Dec 27, 2007, 7:00am » Quote: Is the advantage that playing at home give in game 5 more than the advantage it gives in the other games? If not, then the point spread should include it anyway. Don't know the answer to that. I do know the HCA in game 5 is much smaller than the overal match HCA, but I don't have a game-by-game breakdown. 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