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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 27, 2011 12:13:46 GMT -5
Two sets of rankings. The first is the set you will find at richkern.com whenever they get posted. The second is a different model, one that gave the best results for the tournament over the last 5 years. No HCA or time aspect to it. That's the difference.
Full model
HCA about 215
1 USC 7500
2 Texas 7455
3 Penn State 7320
4 Purdue 7225
5 Nebraska 7175
6 Iowa State 7100
7 Florida 6995
8 Hawaii 6985
9 Tennessee 6970
10 Illinois 6945
11 Pepperdine 6900
12 Texas A&M 6835
13 UCLA 6830
14 Oregon 6770
15 Northern Iowa 6760
16 Colorado State 6690
16 Minnesota 6690
18 Long Beach State 6660
19 California 6640
20 Miami-FL 6625
21 Kentucky 6620
21 Washington 6620
23 Florida State 6600
24 San Diego 6570
25 Stanford 6550
26 Western Kentucky 6520
26 Michigan State 6520
28 Michigan 6450
28 Northern Illinois 6450
30 Saint Marys 6440
31 Tulsa 6420
32 Ohio State 6410
33 Northwestern 6335
34 Kansas State 6330
34 Dayton 6330
36 Duke 6325
37 Cincinnati 6320
38 North Dakota State 6315
39 Oklahoma 6280
40 Wichita State 6275
40 Arizona 6275
42 North Carolina 6225
43 Wisconsin 6195
44 Louisville 6110
45 LSU 6070
46 Clemson 6060
47 Kansas 6045
48 Ole Miss 6040
48 Arkansas 6040
50 UCSB 6015
50 BYU 6015
50 TCU 6015
53 Missouri 6010
53 Western Michigan 6010
55 Middle Tennessee 6000
56 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5990
57 Central Michigan 5975
58 Northern Colorado 5970
59 Ball State 5965
59 New Mexico State 5965
61 Oregon State 5925
62 Baylor 5910
63 Ohio 5900
64 Missouri State 5890
65 North Dakota 5860
66 Arizona State 5850
67 Virginia Tech 5825
68 Marquette 5820
69 Wyoming 5810
70 Texas State 5805
71 Cal State Northridge 5800
71 San Francisco 5800
73 SMU 5795
74 San Diego State 5765
75 Rice 5750
76 UCF 5745
77 NC State 5730
78 Texas-San Antonio 5720
79 Utah 5715
80 Idaho 5695
81 Notre Dame 5680
82 Pacific 5650
82 Delaware 5650
84 Xavier 5640
85 Eastern Michigan 5625
86 Oakland 5620
87 Samford 5615
88 Southern Miss 5590
89 Utah Valley 5565
89 Albany 5565
91 Loyola Marymount 5555
92 Portland State 5550
92 IPFW 5550
94 Santa Clara 5530
95 UC Davis 5515
95 Georgia Tech 5515
97 Cal Poly 5510
98 Fresno State 5480
98 South Carolina 5480
100 Cal State Fullerton 5465
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 27, 2011 12:15:39 GMT -5
Second model. This one gave the best results for the NCAA tournament over the last 5 years (although the difference between this and the one above is less than 1 match/season)
1 Nebraska 7375
2 USC 7305
3 UCLA 7210
4 Purdue 7195
5 Illinois 7180
6 Texas 7175
7 Hawaii 7155
8 Penn State 7115
9 Iowa State 7105
10 Florida 7050
11 Stanford 6990
12 Pepperdine 6925
12 Washington 6925
14 California 6895
15 Northern Iowa 6825
16 Minnesota 6820
17 Tennessee 6805
18 Florida State 6760
18 Oregon 6760
20 San Diego 6735
21 Michigan 6675
21 Miami-FL 6675
23 Kentucky 6655
24 Texas A&M 6610
25 Long Beach State 6555
26 Tulsa 6500
27 Michigan State 6490
28 Colorado State 6475
29 Dayton 6465
30 Western Kentucky 6455
31 Oklahoma 6445
32 North Carolina 6420
33 Arizona 6370
34 BYU 6350
35 Ohio State 6340
36 Northern Illinois 6320
36 Kansas State 6320
38 Cincinnati 6305
39 Louisville 6300
40 Duke 6265
41 Wichita State 6225
42 Northwestern 6215
43 Saint Marys 6205
44 Wisconsin 6165
45 Kansas 6085
46 LSU 6070
46 Missouri State 6070
48 Western Michigan 6050
49 Marquette 6045
50 UCSB 6035
51 North Dakota State 6030
52 Clemson 6025
52 Arkansas 6025
54 Missouri 6015
55 Baylor 5980
56 TCU 5975
57 Ball State 5970
58 Middle Tennessee 5960
59 San Francisco 5930
60 Notre Dame 5925
61 New Mexico State 5910
62 Oregon State 5905
63 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5885
64 UC Davis 5880
65 Pacific 5850
66 San Diego State 5835
67 North Dakota 5825
68 Virginia Tech 5820
69 Ole Miss 5805
70 UCF 5790
71 Utah 5785
72 Arizona State 5775
73 Texas-San Antonio 5760
73 Rice 5760
75 Cal Poly 5740
76 NC State 5730
77 Houston 5715
78 Northern Colorado 5710
79 Georgia Tech 5705
80 Cal State Northridge 5700
81 Loyola Marymount 5690
82 Wyoming 5660
82 Xavier 5660
84 UAB 5650
85 Creighton 5645
85 Santa Clara 5645
87 Idaho 5640
87 Ohio 5640
89 Texas State 5620
90 Eastern Michigan 5610
91 Central Michigan 5600
91 Washington State 5600
93 Utah Valley 5580
93 SMU 5580
95 Samford 5560
96 Cal State Fullerton 5530
96 Texas Tech 5530
98 Cleveland State 5520
99 Albany 5515
100 Villanova 5505
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Post by johnbar on Nov 27, 2011 12:20:10 GMT -5
Stanford moves from #25 in the standard rankings to #11. Seems like a big swing, but I guess that's really only one match in the tournament. Exiting in the second round or the third.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 27, 2011 12:25:05 GMT -5
Stanford moves from #25 in the standard rankings to #11. Seems like a big swing, but I guess that's really only one match in the tournament. Exiting in the second round or the third. With no time component, Stanford will be tied tighter to Penn St. I think that accounts for them. |
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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Nov 27, 2011 12:49:17 GMT -5
Consolidating the top 16 from Pablo, Pablo 2, RKPI and AVCA: | Rank | Pablo Full | "Pablo 2" | RKPI | AVCA (last week) | | 1 | USC | Nebraska | Illinois | USC | | 2 | Texas | USC | Texas | Nebraska | | 3 | Penn State | UCLA | Iowa State | Hawai'i | | 4 | Purdue | Purdue | Nebraska | UCLA | | 5 | Nebraska | Illinois | Northern Iowa | Texas | | 6 | Iowa State | Texas | Purdue | Stanford | | 7 | Florida | Hawaii | Hawaii | Illinois | | 8 | Hawaii | Penn State | USC | Purdue | | 9 | Tennessee | Iowa State | Tennessee | Penn State | | 10 | Illinois | Florida | Florida State | California | | 11 | Pepperdine | Stanford | Penn State | Washington | | 12 | Texas A&M | Pepperdine(tie) | Minnesota | Northern Iowa | | 13 | UCLA | Washington (tie #12) | Kentucky | Oregon | | 14 | Oregon | California | Northern Illinois | Iowa State | | 15 | Northern Iowa | Northern Iowa | UCLA | Tennessee | | 16 | Colorado State (tie) | Minnesota | Pepperdine | Kentucky | | Minnesota (tie) |
There, now we're ready to create better brackets than the selection comittee. VT, you have 6 hours; Go!  Edit: ties mess things up, don't they? |
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Post by Pirate VB Fan on Nov 27, 2011 12:54:56 GMT -5
Consolidating the top 16 from Pablo, Pablo 2, RKPI and AVCA... YOD: You did not account for the two ties, one each in the Pablo charts (#16 in the original and #12 in Pablo 2). |
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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Nov 27, 2011 13:19:11 GMT -5
Consolidating the top 16 from Pablo, Pablo 2, RKPI and AVCA... YOD: You did not account for the two ties, one each in the Pablo charts (#16 in the original and #12 in Pablo 2). My bad. Fixed it. |
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Post by baywatcher on Nov 27, 2011 13:38:37 GMT -5
Any particular reason the NCAA couldn't use one of these databases? They are math models, right? No subjective rational? I agree with excluding the polls from consideration, as this season has shown, the polls are loony.
By the way, Bofa, thanks for putting the work in on Pablo. Hope your local sports book survived the recent poker troubles so you can cash in on your homework.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 27, 2011 14:05:19 GMT -5
Any particular reason the NCAA couldn't use one of these databases? They are math models, right? No subjective rational? Could they? Sure. Will they? Don't count on it. Why not? Good question. Likely because they didn't come up with it. They figure RPI works for everything else so why should vball be any different? |
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Post by BoilerUp! on Nov 27, 2011 14:29:12 GMT -5
Thanks, Pablo!  |
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Post by OverAndUnder on Nov 27, 2011 18:06:56 GMT -5
Two sets of rankings. The first is the set you will find at richkern.com whenever they get posted. The second is a different model, one that gave the best results for the tournament over the last 5 years. No HCA or time aspect to it. That's the difference. Full model HCA about 215 1 USC 7500 2 Texas 7455 3 Penn State 7320 4 Purdue 7225 5 Nebraska 7175 6 Iowa State 7100 7 Florida 6995 8 Hawaii 6985 9 Tennessee 6970 10 Illinois 6945 11 Pepperdine 6900 12 Texas A&M 6835 13 UCLA 6830 14 Oregon 6770 15 Northern Iowa 6760 16 Colorado State 6690 16 Minnesota 6690 18 Long Beach State 6660 19 California 6640 20 Miami-FL 6625 21 Kentucky 6620 21 Washington 6620 23 Florida State 6600 24 San Diego 6570 25 Stanford 6550 26 Western Kentucky 6520 26 Michigan State 6520 28 Michigan 6450 28 Northern Illinois 6450 30 Saint Marys 6440 31 Tulsa 6420 32 Ohio State 6410 33 Northwestern 6335 34 Kansas State 6330 34 Dayton 6330 36 Duke 6325 37 Cincinnati 6320 38 North Dakota State 6315 39 Oklahoma 6280 40 Wichita State 6275 40 Arizona 6275 42 North Carolina 6225 43 Wisconsin 6195 44 Louisville 6110 45 LSU 6070 46 Clemson 6060 47 Kansas 6045 48 Ole Miss 6040 48 Arkansas 6040 50 UCSB 6015 50 BYU 6015 50 TCU 6015 53 Missouri 6010 53 Western Michigan 6010 55 Middle Tennessee 6000 56 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5990 57 Central Michigan 5975 58 Northern Colorado 5970 59 Ball State 5965 59 New Mexico State 5965 61 Oregon State 5925 62 Baylor 5910 63 Ohio 5900 64 Missouri State 5890 65 North Dakota 5860 66 Arizona State 5850 67 Virginia Tech 5825 68 Marquette 5820 69 Wyoming 5810 70 Texas State 5805 71 Cal State Northridge 5800 71 San Francisco 5800 73 SMU 5795 74 San Diego State 5765 75 Rice 5750 76 UCF 5745 77 NC State 5730 78 Texas-San Antonio 5720 79 Utah 5715 80 Idaho 5695 81 Notre Dame 5680 82 Pacific 5650 82 Delaware 5650 84 Xavier 5640 85 Eastern Michigan 5625 86 Oakland 5620 87 Samford 5615 88 Southern Miss 5590 89 Utah Valley 5565 89 Albany 5565 91 Loyola Marymount 5555 92 Portland State 5550 92 IPFW 5550 94 Santa Clara 5530 95 UC Davis 5515 95 Georgia Tech 5515 97 Cal Poly 5510 98 Fresno State 5480 98 South Carolina 5480 100 Cal State Fullerton 5465 The team that comes out of Full Pablo looking the best is Texas. There are no regional hosts within the HCA of Texas's rating, and they are well within the full HCA of the only team ahead of them, and we gotta think there's some fraction of HCA that would apply to a venue only an hour's drive away from Gregory. |
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Post by pogoball on Nov 27, 2011 20:13:21 GMT -5
Using the second model, here are the top Pablo teams to not get invited:
34 BYU
42 Northwestern
43 St Mary's
44 Wisconsin (not eligible)
45 Kansas
46 LSU
Here are the worst at-large teams according to Pablo:
48 Western Michigan
49 Marquette
54 Missouri
55 Baylor
57 Ball State
58 Middle Tennessee
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Post by pogoball on Nov 27, 2011 21:00:54 GMT -5
Okay, my last post went into the cloud...
The final four according to 2nd pablo and adding in 215 HCA when applicable:
UCLA narrowly over Texas
Purdue over Iowa State
Illinois over Stanford
Nebraska over Hawaii -- a total of 5 pablo points. About the equivalent of 33-31 in set 5. That might be the most viewed volleytalk match thread in history.
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Post by sanchez on Nov 28, 2011 22:50:14 GMT -5
Can't find Yale in all of this. Not in the top 100?
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Post by FreeBall on Nov 28, 2011 23:00:37 GMT -5
Here are the 11/28 numbers for tournament teams with Pablo rankings >100:
105 Yale
112 Lipscomb
114 Morehead State
130 Sacred Heart
147 American
152 Niagara
169 Liberty
216 Jackson State
222 Maryland Eastern Shore
It seems to me that there are fewer teams in the field this year with really high RPI/Pablo rankings. Is that true?
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