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Post by DaDawgFather on Nov 6, 2006 20:51:42 GMT -5
Is it conceivable that the NCAA career assist record could be broken this year by 2 different setters? Courtney is 563 away and Kamana'o is 711 away. If they can extend their seasons long enough, that would be an amazing feat for the 2006 season.
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Post by BearClause on Nov 6, 2006 21:06:52 GMT -5
Is the record really meaningful? I think it would be helpful to separate it into players who played under 15 point sideout scoring, 15 point sideout scoring with 5th game rally scoring, and 30 point rally scoring.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 6, 2006 21:13:15 GMT -5
Agreed, BearClause, these two will be two of few freshman starting setters who played their entire career during rally-scoring period.
I think that Kanoe's chances are slim, especially given only 7-remaining regular season matches. Getting to the sweet 16 would give her 10, but that means 71-assists per match.
Courtney has only 5-regular season matches remaining. Washington making it deep would give her 5-6 more matches. She'll need to average 112 during regular season matches or 56 per match if they make the Final Four.
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Post by DaDawgFather on Nov 6, 2006 21:46:17 GMT -5
Well, lets see. I actually think that it is more of a feat now than it was before the 30 point games.
Sideout percentages haven't really changed between sideout games and 30 point rally games. The good teams are still siding out about 60+% and the bad teams about 50-55%. So if in the 15 point game a team is getting scored on 4 points out of every 10 serves it is taking just under 40 serves to score 15 points. Somewhere between 35 and 40. Going both ways that's about 70-80 serves per game. Any more of a blowout and the number of serves is going down.
In the current format you're serving 29-30 times unless the game goes long. So in close games somewhere between 50 and 60 serves going both ways. So it seems to me the games are shorter under the new format unless your average margin of victory is huge in which case the games will be longer.
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Post by pedro el leon on Nov 6, 2006 22:27:20 GMT -5
CT is probably on pace to break the Assist per game mark, no?
I know she's basically going to in the pac10...
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 7, 2006 8:15:19 GMT -5
So let's see...
I know that currently in DI, the average match is 187 total points. Assuming a 60% side-out efficiency, that means that would mean about 75 SOS points per match. The average game in about 30 - 24. That puts the average match 15% more than an average game (due to 4 and 5 game matches)
I don't have the averages of SOS matches, but a 3 game match that goes 15 - 10, 15 - 10, 15 - 10 is 75 points. I don't know if this was average or not, but I am guessing that 15 - 10 or so is pretty close to an average game (I used to have this comparison, and it might still be in my drawer but I didn't see it). However, assuming 15% higher would give about 86 SOS points per match, which would be more like 216 rally scoring points.
OK, this depends on my assessment of sideout rate, but I think 60% is about right for NCAA DI (from what I get talking to people who know these things). Similarly, it depends on the average score in sideout, which I will have to see if I can find.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 7, 2006 10:45:00 GMT -5
I went back and have checked into the scoring averages in SOS. In 1999-2000, the average number of points per match was about 83.5. However, that was in the days where game 5 was rally, so the points break down as 79.5 in pure SOS and 4.in rally scoring. If I make the same assumption of a 60% sideout rate, then that makes the estimated sideout points of 81, which is about 8% more than in rally scoring, but it is close. If the average sideout rate in DI is more like 57%, then they would be equal.
However, I think it is closer to 60 on average.
Thus, in terms of total number of serves, I estimate that there were more per match, on average, in SOS scoring than in rally scoring.
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Post by Pirate VB Fan on Nov 7, 2006 11:19:12 GMT -5
This may be stating the obvious, but Court plays on a team that plays very few games/match (or is that sets/game or whatever the correct terminology is these days). Last year they played only 10 games over the minimum. Yes, you would assume the assist leader would have to be on a very good to great team, but with so many 3-0 games in her career it is a little surprising she is is so close to breaking an "absolute number" stat like total assists and not just the "relative stat" like assist/game.
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Post by DaDawgFather on Nov 7, 2006 11:28:50 GMT -5
This may be stating the obvious, but Court plays on a team that plays very few games/match (or is that sets/game or whatever the correct terminology is these days). Last year they played only 10 games over the minimum. Yes, you would assume the assist leader would have to be on a very good to great team, but with so many 3-0 games in her career it is a little surprising she is is so close to breaking an "absolute number" stat like total assists and not just the "relative stat" like assist/game. Acutally, your instincts are correct. I believe if CT's season were to end now, she would hold the NCAA record in career assists per game. Although... I haven't kept track of any other setters in the US so I don't know that for sure.
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Post by roy on Nov 7, 2006 13:31:56 GMT -5
This may be stating the obvious, but Court plays on a team that plays very few games/match (or is that sets/game or whatever the correct terminology is these days). Last year they played only 10 games over the minimum. Yes, you would assume the assist leader would have to be on a very good to great team, but with so many 3-0 games in her career it is a little surprising she is is so close to breaking an "absolute number" stat like total assists and not just the "relative stat" like assist/game. I agree and disagree with this. Yes, Thompson has played in fewer matches that went over 3 games last season. But you have to consider the span of her whole career. In her freshman year, I believe 10 of the 18 Pac 10 matches went over 3 games. Her sophomore year, 9 matches against Pac 10 teams went over 3 games. However, on the flip side, those matches did hurt her assist/game average. Every match that doesn't end up in a sweep tends to lower your assist average. Also, Washington has had a lighter preseason schedule. Against stronger competition, Washington would have played more 4 or 5 game matches and thus, her total assists would have been higher. But on the flip side of that, her assist per game average would be lower due to the stronger competition.
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Post by Ye Olde Dawg on Nov 7, 2006 15:33:11 GMT -5
This year the Huskies are playing more games per match. According to their 2006 stats (updated yesterday), they've played 83 games in 24 matches -- 11 games over the bare minimum already. I'm sure they'll have more "extra games" before the season's over. One way to look at it is that Courtney is averaging about 52 assists per match. At this rate she may come close to the record but not break it.
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Post by Pirate VB Fan on Nov 7, 2006 17:48:58 GMT -5
One way to look at it is that Courtney is averaging about 52 assists per match. At this rate she may come close to the record but not break it. In the last four matches she has had: 75 in a five game match 50 in a three game match 70 in a four game match 64 in a four game match That is 259 in four matches or 64.75 assists per match. Preseason tends to depress Court's numbers because the other teams tend to "give" us more points than a typical PAC-10 team (errors, aces, etc) so no assists on those, plus this year Court did not play all of six games.
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Post by Mix Breed-TEXAS,HI,LBSU on Nov 7, 2006 19:20:08 GMT -5
I think both will break the record this year... I love both of these setter's, two of the nations finest right now. Both are fun to watch...
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Post by DaDawgFather on Nov 9, 2006 15:43:01 GMT -5
One way to look at it is that Courtney is averaging about 52 assists per match. At this rate she may come close to the record but not break it. She is averaging 15 assists per game. So her best chance is if the remaining opponents can take a game off of them extending the match although I'm sure they wouldn't want that.
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Post by DaDawgFather on Nov 12, 2006 23:07:30 GMT -5
562 to go to tie.
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