Final Bracketology (all matches concluded)

[trojansc]

This is my final prediction on the 33 at-large participants of the NCAA tournament.

The Final Bracketology

31 Conference Champions (Automatic Bids)
Atlantic Coast- Florida State
America East-Binghamton
Atlantic Sun-East Tennessee State
Atlantic 10-Dayton
Big 10-Penn State
Big 12-Texas
Big East-Louisville
Big Sky-Northern Colorado
Big South-Liberty
Big West-Hawaii
Colonial-Hofstra
Conference USA-Tulsa
Horizon-Cleveland St
Ivy League-Yale
Metro Atlantic-Fairfield
Mid American-Bowling Green
Mid Eastern-UMES
Missouri Valley Conference- Creighton
Mountain West Conference- Colorado State
Northeast-Long Island
Ohio Valley-Belmont
Patriot-Colgate
SEC-Florida
Southern Conference – College of Charleston
Southland-Central Arkansas
Summit-IPFW
Sun Belt-Western Kentucky
SWAC-Jackson St
PAC12-Stanford
WAC--New Mexico State
West Coast-BYU

LOCKS (24)

Southern California – PAC 12
UCLA– PAC 12
Oregon– PAC 12
Washington– PAC 12

San Diego - WCC
Saint Mary’s - WCC

Miami– ACC
North Carolina – ACC

Tennessee – SEC
Texas A&M – SEC
Kentucky – SEC
Arkansas – SEC

Marquette – Big East
Notre Dame - Big East

Michigan State – Big Ten
Michigan – Big Ten
Purdue – Big Ten
Nebraska – Big Ten
Minnesota –Big Ten
Ohio State – Big Ten

Kansas – Big 12
Kansas State – Big 12
Iowa State – Big 12
Oklahoma – Big 12

Amongst Locks and Conference Champions,

Sixteen Seeds
Berkeley Regional
(1) Stanford vs. (16) Hawai'i
(8) Kansas vs. (9) Oregon

Omaha Regional
(4) Nebraska vs. (13) Washington
(5) UCLA vs. (12) Brigham Young

West Lafayette Regional
(2) Penn State vs. (15) Tennessee
(7) Louisville vs. (10) Florida State

Austin Regional
(3) Texas vs. (14) Florida
(6) Minnesota vs. (11) Southern California


That leaves 9 at-large spots for 19 legitimate at-large contenders. (19 at-large contenders have RPI ranging from 37-63)

ACC
North Carolina State
Georgia Tech
Clemson

Atlantic 10
Xavier

Big 10
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Big 12
Baylor

Missouri Valley Conference
Wichita State
Northern Iowa

Mountain West
San Diego State

Pac-12
California
Arizona
Arizona State

SEC
Missouri
Auburn

WCC
Pepperdine
Santa Clara
Loyola Marymount
San Francisco


Here are their Tournament Resume's in no particular order:
Green is impressive, will help them get into tournament.
Yellow is not as impressive, but still good.
Red is bad, may possibly keep them out of the tournament.

Arizona (16-15, 8-12 7th-Pac-12)

Pablo: 34 RPI: 41 SOS: 64.9
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 8 UCLA, 45 Arizona State, 58 Oregon State
Significant losses (71+ RPI): 78 Cal St. Northridge, 132 Washington State
Last 10: 4-6

San Diego State (23-7, 13-3 2nd-Mountain West)

Pablo: 36 RPI: 40 SOS: 112.5
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 25 San Diego, 34 Colorado State, 39 California,
Significant losses (71+ RPI): 144 Boise State, 238 Nevada
Last 10: 10-0

Arizona State (20-13, 9-11 5th-Pac-12)

Pablo: 38 RPI: 45 SOS: 69.1
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 10 USC, 12 Washington, 39 California(x2), 48 Loyola Marymount
Significant losses (71+ RPI): 80 Utah (x2), 94 Wyoming, 102 Colorado
Last 10: 6-4

Pepperdine (19-13,8-8 T5th-West Coast)

Pablo: 43 RPI: 37 SOS: 73.6
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 9 Florida State, 20 Ohio State, 31 Saint Mary's, 38 Illinois, 41 Arizona, 45 Santa Clara, 48 Loyola Marymount 59 San Francisco, 62 Ohio
Significant Losses (71+ RPI): NONE
Last 10: 6-4

Northern Iowa (24-9, 15-4 2nd-Missouri Valley Conference)

Pablo: 39 RPI: 43 SOS: 117.2
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 32 Marquette, 44 Wichita State, 61 Long Beach State
Significant losses (71+ RPI): 91 Missouri State, 117 Arkansas State
Last 10: 7-3

North Carolina State (22-9, 12-8 ACC)

Pablo: 45 RPI: 42 SOS: 108.2
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 19 North Carolina, 55 College of Charleston, 57 Clemson, 63 Georgia Tech, 64 Virginia Tech(x2), 68 Duke
Bad losseS(71+ RPI): 156 Wake Forest
Last 10: 4-6

Clemson (21-10, 12-8 ACC)

Pablo: 46 RPI: 57 SOS: 120.9
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 53 Xavier, 63 Georgia Tech, 64 Virginia Tech(x2), 68 Duke (x2)
Bad losseS(71+ RPI): 84 Maryland, 87 Furman, 95 South Carolina
Last 10: 7-3

Santa Clara (20-11, 9-7 4TH-West Coast)

Pablo: 47 RPI: 45 SOS: 90.0
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 13 BYU, 25 San Diego, 37 Pepperdine, 40 San Diego State, 59 San Francisco(x2)
Bad losseS(71+ RPI): 81 Pacific
Last 10: 6-4

Loyola Marymount (18-12, 8-8 T5TH-West Coast)

Pablo: 37 RPI: 48 SOS: 91.1
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 31 Saint Mary's, 36 Notre Dame, 37 Pepperdine, 47 Santa Clara(x2), 53 Xavier
Significant losseS(71+ RPI): 103 UC Santa Barbara
Last 10: 7-3

Missouri (19-12, 10-10 SEC)

Pablo: 47 RPI: 50 SOS: 99.9
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 15 Tennessee, 60 Auburn, 64 Virginia Tech,
Significant losseS(71+ RPI): 71 Georgia, 74 Morehead State, 101 Alabama, 105 Ole Miss
Last 10: 4-6


Northwestern (16-15, 5-15 Big 10)

Pablo: 51 RPI: 47 SOS: 69.9
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 32 Marquette, 33 Michigan, 35 Michigan State 52 Bowling Green, 67 Wisconsin, 70 Yale
Significant losseS(71+ RPI): 107 Indiana
Last 10: 2-8

Wichita State (22-9, 15-4 3rd-MVC)

Pablo: 54 RPI: 44 SOS: 114.2
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 30 Oklahoma, 34 Colorado State, 43 Northern Iowa, 60 Auburn,
Significant losseS(71+ RPI): 92 Illinois State, 104 New Mexico State
Last 10: 6-4

Auburn (17-13, 8-12 SEC)

Pablo: 55 RPI: 60 SOS: 95.6
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 27 Arkansas
Significant losseS(71+ RPI): 71 Georgia, 79 LSU, 101 Alabama
Last 10: 4-6

San Francisco (16-14, 7-9 7th-WCC)

Pablo: 56 RPI: 59 SOS: 80.0
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 37 Pepperdine, 39 California(x2), 48 Loyola Marymount(x2),
Significant losseS(71+ RPI): 94 Wyoming
Last 10: 4-6

Xavier (20-11, 12-4 Atlantic-10)

Pablo: 47 RPI: 53 SOS: 138.7
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): NONE
SignificantlosseS(71+ RPI): 105 Ole Miss, 166 Temple,
Last 10: 8-2

Wisconsin (17-16, 5-15 Big Ten)

Pablo: 59 RPI: 68 SOS: 83.3
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 33 Michigan, 38 Illinois, 47 Northwestern, 60 Long Beach State
Bad losseS(71+ RPI): 101 Indiana
Last 10: 2-8

Georgia Tech (19-12, 10-10 ACC)

Pablo: 60 RPI: 64 SOS: 101.5
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 19 North Carolina, 42 NC State, 52 Bowling Green, 57 Clemson, 64 Virginia Tech,
Bad losseS(71+ RPI): 107 Indiana 136 Virginia
Last 10: 4-6

Baylor (20-12, 7-9 Big 12)

Pablo: 62 RPI: 51 SOS: 124.1
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 6 Kansas, 39 California, 59 San Francisco
Significant Losses(71+ RPI): 111 North Texas 220 Southern Methodist
Last 10: 6-4

California (15-15, 9-11 Pac-12)

Pablo: 24 RPI: 39 SOS: 47.1
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 11 Oregon, 16 Hawai'i, 31 Saint Mary's, 41 Arizona(x2)
Significant Losses(71+ RPI): NONE
Last 10: 5-5

I think the following 6 teams are the weakest contenders on the bubble and do not have much of a chance at all on Selection Sunday:

Clemson (high RPI, bad SOS, no top 50 wins)
Auburn ( only one top 50 victory, 60 RPI, bad loss)
Georgia Tech (64 RPI, two top 50 victories but two bad losses, 4-6 last 10)
Xavier (0 top 70 victories, two bad losses, 53 RPI)
Wisconsin (RPI 68 is worst enemy, 3 top-50 wins but 2-8 in last 10 with a bad loss)
San Francisco (Has 5 top 50 wins but 7th bid from the WCC?, RPI 59, 4-6 last 10)


I do think that the following 4 bubble teams will not be among the last at-larges in the NCAA tournament:

Arizona State ASU two top-15 wins, no other bubble team can say that, and they have a great SOS with a better record than teams with comparable SOS. ASU is in.

Pepperdine Pepperdine has 9 wins in the Top 70 RPI, and 7 wins in the Top 50 RPI. The Waves are in, If not.. it's a travesty.

California California is safely in because even though they're only .500, their worst loss was to San Francisco (RPI: 59). They have two top twenty wins, only ASU & Pepperdine can relate. Cal's RPI at 39 would be too good to leave them out. Cal is in.

San Diego State The Aztecs are in because they're hot lately at 10-0. This makes me think the committee will ignore their two horrible losses and SDSU beat San Diego late in the season. An RPI of 40 is also very good. San Diego State is in.

That leaves the following 9 teams fighting for only 5 bids left:

NC State (ACC)
Northwestern (Big-10)
Baylor (Big-12)
Wichita State & Northern Iowa (MVC)
Arizona (Pac-12)
Missouri (SEC)
Santa Clara & Loyola Marymount (WCC)

Santa Clara is in because they have a good SOS and a decent record, and two big top-25 victories. They have four in the top 50. Santa Clara doesn't have anything that looks that bad on their resume. The Broncos will be dancing.

Missouri sort of played themselves out of the tournament this week. They lost to Kentucky but also fell to 100+RPI Bama at home. Missouri should not be in the NCAA Tournament. Missouri's SOS is in their favor, their RPI at 50 makes them still in the talks, but I don't think only one top-50 RPI win will cut it. Sorry Tigers.

Wichita State is in because they fell just short of a conference championship and have an important last week victory against Northern Iowa. They have a RPI just squeaking them in, and 3 top-50 victories. We'll see how the committee feels about the MVC. I wouldn't be stunned to see only one bid or three bids for that matter, but I do believe the MVC deserves at least two.

Arizona is out because their resume does not look that impressive. A good SOS but a bad loss and going 4-6 over the last 10, with no impressive victories besides UCLA will keep them out.

Loyola Marymount is in because they have a good SOS and 3 victories against RPI teams in 30's range. They finished 7-3 in their last 10. LMU may be overlooked because the WCC is strong this year, there are 4 other at-larges that arguably look better than the Lions. LMU has 5 top-50 victories but none in the top 25 RPI range. But looking at all of the at-large resume's, I think LMU is in for the 6th bid from the WCC. Only the Pac-12 should have more with 7 bids.

Northwestern is out because they are 2-8 over their last 10 games with a poor record, and a bad loss. That's enough to keep them out. If they had a top 25 RPI victory, maybe things would be different.

North Carolina State is the second to last at-large in the NCAA tournament, clinging on to the North Carolina victory as their fate depends on it. Their SOS is not the worst but it's nothing to boast about - and they do have a bad loss and are 4-6 in their last 10. Their record saves them from only having one top-50 RPI win (even though it was a very good win, its still only one). I think they look better than Northwestern, Missouri, and Arizona, which is why I'm giving them this last big.

Baylor played their way out similar to Arizona and Missouri. I really do think the committee will notice these losses. Baylor, however has a better chance than Arizona and Missouri. Baylor is still 6-4 in their last 10 and has a gorgeous victory against RPI #6 Kansas. Baylor's SOS is not in their favor, nor is their RPI at 51. I think the Bears (just barely) played themselves out of the NCAA tournament. Southern Methodist, really?

Northern Iowa is in because their record is strong with an RPI that just barely squeaks them into the tournament if using RPI only standards. They may be out because of a bad SOS with a bad loss to Arkansas State, and only beating Marquette as their signature victory. They have 3 top 50 RPI wins, 2 against Wichita State, but that same Wichita State beat UNI in the conference tournament this week and may have stolen their spot if UNI is left out. But to me - Northern Iowa is the last team in the NCAA tournament.

Last four in: Wichita State, Loyola Marymount, NC State, Northern Iowa

First four out: Baylor, Arizona, Northwestern, Missouri






***if the committee uses only 11/19 RPI for at-large bids it will look like this***

Last four in: 43 Northern Iowa, 44 Wichita State, 45 Arizona State, 45 Santa Clara
First four out: 47 Northwestern, 48 Loyola Marymount, 50 Missouri, 51 Baylor




Anyone agree/disagree with my at-large choices? Whose resume's looks best? Is Cal really in as easily as I think they are?

[OptimusPrime]

Nice work trojansc!

It looks pretty good. Too bad Mizzou just worked itself out of the dance this weekend. I am rooting for LMU to get in. They overcame so much this year and made a nice run at the end. They deserve to get in...

[qc]

The only problem I can see is that your RPI rankings are old ones and the committee will have new (final) ones. It probably doesn't matter much.

ADDED: How old are the Pablo rankings you used?

[lionsfan]

Great work! Of the 19, the "obvious" one to me are Cal, Arizona State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Pepperdine and Santa Clara. After those, I would still think LMU also deserves it.

[ugopher]

Outside of conference tournaments, I wonder how much weight the committee will place on tonight's matches?

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2012 23:15:12 GMT -5 qc said:

The only problem I can see is that your RPI rankings are old ones and the committee will have new (final) ones. It probably doesn't matter much.

Yes, the 1-16 RPI teams are the sixteen seeded teams I have but I didn't seed them in that order. I also don't think anyone else will jump into this 1-16 RPI group that deserves a seed. 17 Kansas State lost three games in a row to end their season. 18 Texas A&M may be seeded because they beat Tennessee - but I think Tennessee will probably still be seeded. 19 North Carolina has a chance, maybe. 20 Ohio State lost to Michigan. 21 Miami would have been a good candidate if they won the ACC.

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2012 23:15:12 GMT -5 qc said:

ADDED: How old are the Pablo rankings you used?

As old as the RPI rankings.

[lionsfan]

Nov 24, 2012 23:25:49 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2012 23:15:12 GMT -5 qc said:

The only problem I can see is that your RPI rankings are old ones and the committee will have new (final) ones. It probably doesn't matter much.

Yes, the 1-16 RPI teams are the sixteen seeded teams I have but I didn't seed them in that order. I also don't think anyone else will jump into this 1-16 RPI group that deserves a seed. 17 Kansas State lost three games in a row to end their season. 18 Texas A&M may be seeded because they beat Tennessee - but I think Tennessee will probably still be seeded. 19 North Carolina has a chance, maybe. 20 Ohio State lost to Michigan. 21 Miami would have been a good candidate if they won the ACC.

No chance for Iowa State? Tonight's win too late to mean anything?

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2012 23:29:38 GMT -5 lionsfan said:

No chance for Iowa State? Tonight's win too late to mean anything?

According to the GURU, a REALLY BAD loss is detrimental for seeding. Since Iowa State is on the outside of the RPI - their loss to RPI#193 (12-19) Syracuse will keep them out of seeding. So what if it was earlier in the season.

(last year) UCF who beat USC in the 3rd game of the season had a much better RPI than Syracuse and it supposedly hurt USC's seed alot. I think Iowa State is hot lately and did beat Texas, but that is a really bad loss.

[Deleted]

Great work!

[macroman]

The conspiracy theorist in me says that the NCAA would really like to take Hawaii out of the 16 seeds and avoid flying 3 teams out there. OTH there are not enough qualifying teams in the Minnesota-Iowa State area to fill two subregionals there either. What's an selection committee to do anyway?

[southie]

Thanks for sharing that.

I still think the committee's top 16 national seeds will closely follow the RPI rankings (but, as of what date?); so, based on this:

1 Stanford
2 Penn State
3 Texas
4 Louisville
5 UCLA
6 Nebraska
7 Kansas
8 Florida State
9 Minnesota
10 BYU
11 Florida
12 Oregon
13 Texas A&M
14 North Carolina
15 Southern California
16 Hawaii

If the above is used, some "shifting" is required at the top as #3 Texas and #6 Nebraska arent allowed based on both hosting regionals; so, I'd imagine NU gets moved up/down one slot. I'd say they get moved up on slot to #5. Consequently, UCLA would get moved down one spot to#6.

Berkeley Regional
(1) Stanford vs. (16) Hawai'i
(8) Florida State vs. (9) Minnesota

Omaha Regional
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Texas A&M
(5) Nebraska vs. (12) Oregon

West Lafayette Regional
(2) Penn State vs. (15) Southern California
(7) Kansas vs. (10) BYU

Austin Regional
(3) Texas vs. (14) North Carolina
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Florida

[trojansc]

Nov 25, 2012 0:02:42 GMT -5 macroman said:

The conspiracy theorist in me says that the NCAA would really like to take Hawaii out of the 16 seeds and avoid flying 3 teams out there. OTH there are not enough qualifying teams in the Minnesota-Iowa State area to fill two subregionals there either. What's an selection committee to do anyway?

I could see a possible situation of Hawai'i flying out to face an unseeded team such as North Carolina, Dayton, Ohio State, Purdue.. The Rainbow Wahine probably wouldn't be very happy about that.

[Wolfgang]

trojansc -- not only is your original post impressive but it has to rank first among the longest posts in the history of VT!

[trojansc]

Nov 25, 2012 0:10:23 GMT -5 Wolfgang said:

trojansc -- not only is this impressive but this has to be the longest post in the history of VT!

I wanted to thoroughly investigate the bubble-teams Joe Lunardi style so that when the committee puts in Missouri over Santa Clara (for example) I have the right to gripe about it. I also wanted to show people how close these #'s really are on the bubble and how hard it is distinguish who is really better when they're so close. RPI, SOS, Last 10, Pablo, Top victories and bad losses should be enough to separate the teams, right? But it's not that easy.