Final Trojan Bracketology (all matches concluded)

[trojansc]

Click here to see Trojan Bracketology 2012

Final Trojan Bracketology 11/30/2013
* All matches have concluded.

Automatic Qualifiers (32)
*RPI in Parentheses. These RPI rankings are from 11/25. The NCAA committee uses an updated RPI for the entire season's results when determining at-large selections and seeding.

ACC – Duke (18)
America East – New Hampshire (205)
AAC –Louisville. (36)
Atlantic 10 – Duquense (98)
Atlantic Sun – Jacksonville (96)
Big 10 – Penn State (2)
Big 12 – Texas (1)
Big East – Marquette (10)
Big Sky – Idaho State (116)
Big South – Radford (159)
Big West – UCSB (59)
Colonial – College of Charleston (68)
Conference USA – UTSA (47)
Horizon – Milwaukee (79)
Ivy – Yale (43)
MAAC – Fairfield (156)
MAC – Ohio (35)
MEAC – Hampton (190)
MVC – Wichita State (46)
MWC – Colorado State (20)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (87)
OVC – Morehead State (91)
Pac-12 – Washington (3)
Patriot – American (44)
SEC – Missouri (5)
SoCon – Georgia Southern (73)
Southland – Central Arkansas (45)
Summit – IUPUI (109)
Sun Belt – Texas State (104)
SWAC – Alabama State (278)
WAC – New Mexico State (94)
WCC – San Diego (15)


Locked At-Large Bids (23)

ACC (At least 3 bids)
Florida State (19)
North Carolina (21)

Big 10 (At least 8 bids)
Nebraska (8)
Minnesota (13)
Wisconsin (14)
Michigan State (27)
Michigan (28)
Illinois (17)
Purdue (29)

Big 12 (At least 4 bids)
Kansas (12)
Oklahoma (23)
Iowa State (22)

Big East (At least 2 bids)
Creighton (16)

Big West (At least 2 bids)
Hawai'i (11)

PAC-12 (At least 7 bids)
USC (6)
Stanford (7)
Arizona (24)
Utah (26)
Oregon (25)
California (30)

SEC (At Least 3 bids but likely much more)
Florida (4)
Kentucky (9)

WCC (At Least 2 bids)
Brigham Young (31)


Final Contenders for an At-Large Bids
(24 teams for only 9 spots)

ACC (max 5 bids) – NC State (52) Miami (51)

Big 10 (max 9 bids) – Ohio State (49) Northwestern (57)

Big 12 (max 5 bids) – Kansas State (58)

Big East (max 4 bids) – Butler (41) Xavier (53)

Big West (max 3 bids)– Cal State Northridge (38) UC Santa Barbara (59)

Conference USA (max 3 bids) – Tulane (56) Tulsa (39)

MVC (max 3 bids) – Northern Iowa (55)

Pac-12 (max 10 bids)  – Colorado (54) UCLA (42) Arizona State (48)

Patriot (max 2 bids) – Colgate (50)

SEC (max 9 bids) – Texas A&M (32) Alabama (33) LSU (34) Arkansas (37) Georgia (40) Auburn (63)

Sun Belt (max 2 bids) – Western Kentucky (60)

WCC (max 2 bids) – Saint Mary’s (61)

Honorable Mention: Ball State, Pepperdine (pretty solid resume but a bad RPI), Washington State (not a bad resume but 11th in the Pac-12 with only a few victories won't and shouldn't cut it), Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth (VCU), and Virginia Tech were all close but not enough to grant a serious consideration for an at-large bid. But Congratulations on nice seasons to all of these schools. Pepperdine should not be too disappointed, I was an early critic of Pepperdine, but all of their losses were reasonable. Their resume for the tournament is not so bad - but their RPI is way too high..




Bubble At-Large Resume’s sorted by Conference
(As of 11/27 completed results)
* Information will be updated nightly until all matches conclude.

ACC

NC State
Overall Record: (20-12)
Conference Record: (11-9)
Non-Conference Record: (9-3)
RPI: 52
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 18 Duke, 64 VCU
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): None
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 47
Other: Lost five straight including three against Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-6
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Miami
Overall Record: (19-11)
Conference Record: (12-8)
Non-Conference Record: (7-3)
RPI: 51
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 21 North Carolina, 23 Oklahoma, 34 LSU, 52 North Carolina State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 43
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-6
Last 10 matches: 6-4

Big Ten

Ohio State
Overall Record: (18-14)
Conference Record: (6-14)
Non-Conference Record: (12-0)
RPI: 49
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 19 Florida State, 28 Michigan, 29 Purdue, 61 Western Kentucky
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 23
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-12
Last 10 matches: 4-6 and (4-11) in their last 15

Northwestern
Overall Record: (16-16)
Conference Record: (8-12)
Non-Conference Record: (8-4)
RPI: 57
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 17 Illinois, 29 Purdue(x2), 49 Ohio State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 26
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-13
Last 10 matches: 3-7

Big 12

Kansas State
Overall Record: (18-11)
Conference Record: (6-10)
Non-Conference Record: (12-1)
RPI: 58
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 22 Iowa State, 23 Oklahoma, 30 California, 37 Arkansas
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 213 Texas Tech
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 47
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-6
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Big East

Butler
Overall Record: (24-8)
Conference Record: (11-5)
Non-Conference Record: (12-2)
RPI: 41
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 16 Creighton
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 76
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-6
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-8
Last 10 matches: 7-3 (all three of those losses come at the hands of Marquette)


Xavier
Overall Record: (21-11)
Conference Record: (12-4)
Non-Conference Record: (9-6)
RPI: 53
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 41 Butler (x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 55
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 5-9
Other: It’s like déjà vu for Xavier, in this exact same position last year..
Last 10 matches: 7-3

Big West

Cal State Northridge
Overall Record: (23-6)
Conference Record: (13-3)
Non-Conference Record: (10-3)
RPI: 38
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 11 Hawai'i
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 85
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-6
Last 10 matches: 7-3

UC Santa Barbara
Overall Record: (17-10)
Conference Record: (12-2)
Non-Conference Record: (5-7)
RPI: 59
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 11 Hawai’i, 38 Cal State Northridge (x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams):63
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-8
Last 10 matches: 9-1


Conference USA

Tulsa
Overall Record: (24-7)
Conference Record: (12-3)
Non-Conference Record: (12-4)
RPI: 39
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 51 Miami
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 71
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 0-3
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-6
Last 10 matches: 7-3

Tulane
Overall Record: (28-4)
Conference Record: (13-3)
Non-Conference Record: (15-1)
RPI: 56
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 39 Tulsa(x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 173
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-2
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-2
Last 10 matches: 8-2

MVC

Northern Iowa
Overall Record: (23-8)
Conference Record: (15-3)
Non-Conference Record: (8-4)
RPI: 55
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 36 Louisville, 46 Wichita State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 105
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-4
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-7
Other: Three losses to Southern Illinois this season.
Last 10 matches: 8-2

Pac-12

Colorado
Overall Record: (17-13)
Conference Record: (9-10)
Non-Conference Record: (8-2)
RPI: 54
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 3 Washington, 24 Arizona, 26 Utah, 42 UCLA, 48 Arizona State, 61 Saint Mary’s, 65 Washington State (x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 32
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-10
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 9-12
Last 10 matches: 3-7

UCLA
Overall Record: (15-15)
Conference Record: (6-14)
Non-Conference Record: (9-1)
RPI: 42
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 16 Creighton, 39 Cal State Northridge, 48 Arizona State, 65 Washington State(x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 10
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-13
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-14
Last 10 matches: 3-7

Arizona State
Overall Record: (19-13)
Conference Record: (8-12)
Non-Conference Record: (11-1)
RPI: 48
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 1 Texas, 24 Arizona, 25 Oregon, 30 California, 42 UCLA, 54 Colorado, 46 Wichita State, 65 Washington State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 35
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 6-11
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 8-13
Last 10 matches: 6-4

Patriot

Colgate
Overall Record: (22-9)
Conference Record: (12-4)
Non-Conference Record: (10-5)
RPI: 50
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 52 North Carolina State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 152 Lehigh
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 64
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 0-6
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 2-8
Other: 2-3 in its last 5 matches, two losses to American and one to Lehigh.
Last 10 matches: (7-3)

SEC

Georgia
Overall Record: (22-9)
Conference Record: (11-7)
Non-Conference Record: (10-2)
RPI: 40
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 9 Kentucky, 34 LSU
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 41
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-9
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-9
Last 10 matches: 7-3

LSU
Overall Record: (18-12)
Conference Record: (8-10)
Non-Conference Record: (10-2)
RPI: 34
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 32 Texas A&M, 33 Alabama, 37 Arkansas, 40 Georgia, 51 Miami
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 20
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-8
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-11
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Alabama
Overall Record: (24-9)
Conference Record: (10-6)
Non-Conference Record: (13-2)
RPI: 33
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 32 Texas A&M, 37 Arkansas, 40 Georgia, 62 Auburn
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 204 Houston Baptist
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 45
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-7
Record vs. Top 100 RPI:7-8
Last 10 matches: 7-3

Texas A&M
Overall Record: (18-11)
Conference Record: (10-8)
Non-Conference Record: (8-3)
RPI: 32
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 24 Florida State, 37 Arkansas, 40 Georgia, 48 UT San Antonio
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams):18
Last 10 matches: 7-3
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 6-9
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-10

Auburn
Overall Record: (19-11)
Conference Record: (10-8)
Non-Conference Record: (9-3)
RPI: 63
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 6 Nebraska, 34 LSU(x2), 35 Texas A&M, 40 Arkansas
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 66
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-9
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 5-9
Last 10 matches: (7-3)

Arkansas
Overall Record: (16-13)
Conference Record: (9-9)
Non-Conference Record: (7-4)
RPI: 37
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 12 Kansas, 39 Tulsa, 40 Georgia
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 13
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-10
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-13
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Sun Belt

Western Kentucky
Overall Record: (27-6)
Conference Record: (15-1)
Non-Conference Record: (12-4)
RPI: 60
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Purdue
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 206 Louisiana Lafayette 217 Troy
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams):131
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-4
Last 10 matches: (9-1)

WCC

Saint Mary’s
Overall Record: (18-9)
Conference Record: (13-5)
Non-Conference Record: (5-4)
RPI: 61
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 15 San Diego, 22 Iowa State, 32 BYU, 54 Colorado, 51 Miami
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 71
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-4
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-6
Last 10 matches: (7-3)


Predictions and Analysis for At-Large Teams

Bubble Pretenders

Western Kentucky -- Just one win against against a school in the top 70.. combined with two ugly 200+ RPI losses to Louisiana Lafayette and Troy will keep the Hilltoppers home this year. They were close to returning to the NCAA tournament, I don't know what quite happened against Troy???

Northern Iowa -- Just one win against against a school in the top 70.. combined with two ugly 200+ RPI losses to Louisiana Lafayette and Troy will keep the Hilltoppers home this year. They were close to returning to the NCAA tournament, I don't know what quite happened against Troy???

Colgate-- No top 50 victories? Bye Felicia.

Auburn-- Too many better SEC teams in terms of RPI. Auburn would have got a little more consideration had they beat Georgia, but I still don't think they would have got in..

NC State-- You lose your last five games, no NCAA tournament for you...

Northwestern -- A .500 team with a 50s RPI is going to keep Northwestern out. If their resume was outstanding with more impressive victories, I could see an argument to include Northwestern. 3-7 over the last 10 doesn't help. Don't hold your breath on Sunday.

Only A&M is Safe

Texas A&M at RPI #32 winning their only game of the week, and with a solid resume, they are safely in the tournament.

Add Two More SEC

Alabama has a good record, decent RPI, and wins that look good enough on paper to get them by. They may have brought LSU into the tournament by letting the Tigers beat Bama.

LSU is a team that if I were on the committee, I might leave them out. But I'm not. And I'm only predicting what the comittee is going to do. And I believe that they will put LSU in.

Eliminate Two More Pretenders

Kansas State was inconsistent all season. They proved that in the last week by losing to TCU but beating Iowa State. The loss to TCU should keep the Wildcats out.

Saint Mary's I just can't see it happening Gaels. The RPI is too high and the victories aren't standing out enough compared to the other Bubble Teams. I don't think you should be left out, but you will be. Maybe play some more non-conference games next season, Gaels..

The Hardest 12.
These are who I think will be among the last six teams in the NCAA Tournament, and the first six teams out of the NCAA tournament. (sorted by 11/25 RPI) and showing what results they had in the last week

(37) Arkansas beat Miss St., lost to Missouri
(38) CSUN beat UC Davis
(39) Tulsa (no matches)
(40) Georgia beat Auburn and beat Kennesaw State
(41) Butler lost to Marquette
(42) UCLA lost to USC and lost to Utah
(48) Arizona State beat California lost to Arizona
(49) Ohio State lost to Penn State, beat Iowa
(51) Miami beat Clemson and beat Georgia Tech
(53) Xavier lost to Creighton
(54) Colorado beat Utah and lost to USC
(56) Tulane (no matches)

Now Here's something interesting about all of these teams:

Colorado beat UCLA
UCLA beat CSUN
Tulsa beat Miami
Tulane beat Tulsa (TWICE)
Xavier beat Butler (TWICE)
Arizona State split with UCLA and Colorado
Georgia lost to Arkansas

What do I make of all of that? Well.. how can you put Tulsa in the tournament over Tulane, and Butler into the tournament over Xavier, when both of those squads beat them twice? The problem is that Tulane and Xavier have RPI's that are too high. This makes my brain hurt.

For some reason, I think the SEC RPI love will be too strong. And therefore,

Georgia
and
Arkansas will both be in the NCAA tournament, for bids # 7 and # 8 from the SEC.

The Last Four

Cal State Northridge survives a scare with their UC Davis match, and just squeaks into the NCAA tournament riding that Hawai'i victory and a strong (enough) RPI...

Arizona State with a win over the #1 team in the RPI and a strong finish - you've gotta love the Sun Devils as one of those teams that deserves to get in over a squad that is riding just one victory. Boy did they need that victory against California. ASU is in!

Colorado is a risky choice, but they have a lot of wins in the top 70 RPI, which the committee says is significant. Colorado and ASU have one thing that no other bubble team has - a top 5 RPI victory. I think that will put both of these teams in.

I really don't know who to pick for the last bid.
UCLA is trending out, not finishing strong, and barely finished .500. UCLA did not finish strong and their resume is weaker than Colorado and ASU. The head to head loss to Colorado puts them out for sure. (When was the last year UCLA missed the tournament)

Tulane got serious consideration from me, but not because of their resume. Only because they beat Tulsa twice, and I don't want the Golden Hurricane to steal a bid from Tulane. But compared to other bubble teams, I would not take Tulane. So I won't. 28-4 is a great record, but play SOMEONE in the non-conference. Sorry Green Wave. It's a tough choice.

Tulsa is out because they don't have a top-50 victory unless Miami squeaks into the top 50 RPI.

Miami is the last team in the NCAA tournament. They have two top-25 victories whereas Butler only has one. They have four wins vs. top 70 RPI versus only one for Butler as well. I was not very confident when I put Santa Clara and LMU in the NCAA tournament last year, but I felt like the facts spoke for themselves and they deserved the bid more. Its just really tough to deny Tulsa with a higher RPI over Miami, but that argument continues on with Tulane/Tulsa, Butler/Xavier, and etc. So, I go with the Hurricanes.

Summary (Final 9 At-Large Bids)

Safest Team: Texas A&M

Not the Last Four In: Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia

Last Four In: CSUN, Arizona State, Colorado, Miami

First Four Out: Butler, UCLA, Tulsa, Tulane

Next Four Out: Xavier, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, Kansas State


Complete Predicted Bracket with Pairings

Lincoln Regional
(1) Texas vs. Texas State
UT San Antonio vs. Texas A&M

(16) Florida State vs. Alabama State
Wisconsin vs. Alabama

(8) Nebraska vs. Fairfield
Utah vs. Creighton

(9) Kansas vs. Georgia Southern
Arkansas vs. Wichita State


Los Angeles Regional
(4) Missouri vs. IUPUI
Arizona vs. North Carolina

(13) Minnesota vs. Hampton
Georgia vs. Iowa State

(5) Southern California vs. New Hampshire
CSUN vs. BYU

(12) Hawai’i vs. New Mexico State
Michigan State vs. Colorado

Lexington Regional
(3) Washington vs. Idaho State
Michigan vs. Colorado State

(14) San Diego vs. UC Santa Barbara
Purdue vs. Arizona State

(6) Florida vs. Jacksonville
Oregon vs. Miami

(11) Kentucky vs. Morehead State
Louisville vs. Ohio

Illinois Regional
(2) Penn State vs. LIU Brooklyn
Duquense vs. Yale

(15) Duke vs. Radford
College of Charleston vs. American

(7) Stanford vs. Central Arkansas
Oklahoma vs. LSU

(10) Marquette vs. Milwaukee
California vs. Illinois

Teams traveling 400+ miles in the 1st/2nd round: (20) California, LSU, Oklahoma, Central Arkansas, Georgia Southern, Oregon, Purdue, Colorado State, Michigan, Idaho State, NMSU, Mich. St, Colorado, New Hampshire, Hampton, Georgia, North Carolina, Utah, Fairfield, Wisconsin.

[lionsfan]

Great work...and I hope your predicted Lexington bracket is right

Happy Thanksgiving! (You deserve another piece of pie...)

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2013 19:57:47 GMT -5 lionsfan said:

Great work...and I hope your predicted Lexington bracket is right

Happy Thanksgiving! (You deserve another piece of pie...)

I didn't get any pie.. Whoever gets sent to the Los Angeles regional bring me some pie!!!

[n00b]

The top 7 teams in the RPI, Pablo and AVCA poll are all the same 7 teams. I have a hard time seeing another team (Nebraska in your bracket) moving into that top 7.

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2013 20:05:26 GMT -5 n00b said:

The top 7 teams in the RPI, Pablo and AVCA poll are all the same 7 teams. I have a hard time seeing another team (Nebraska in your bracket) moving into that top 7.

Really, you wouldn't move up Nebraska Even if they were to beat Penn State??

Nebraska is #8 in RPI. The committee modifies seedings slightly.. Moving up 1 spot will not surprise me at all.

The committee also has to make sure to distribute Illinois, Nebraska, USC, and Kentucky into separate regions.

[leftcoaster71]

Nov 28, 2013 20:00:43 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2013 19:57:47 GMT -5 lionsfan said:

Great work...and I hope your predicted Lexington bracket is right

Happy Thanksgiving! (You deserve another piece of pie...)

I didn't get any pie.. Whoever gets sent to the Los Angeles regional bring me some pie!!!

Good idea. Anyone coming down from the Bay Area, please bring me a chocolate cake from Merritt Bakery.

[cw]

trojansc...

You left out LSU's resume from the SEC bubble teams. Significant because they lost last night to Ole Miss (+100 in RPI) and may lose again to Alabama. If they lose Sat they will be 3-7 over the last 10 matches.

You also have Georgia on the bracket twice... playing Oregon and playing Butler.

[n00b]

Nov 28, 2013 20:11:48 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 28, 2013 20:05:26 GMT -5 n00b said:

The top 7 teams in the RPI, Pablo and AVCA poll are all the same 7 teams. I have a hard time seeing another team (Nebraska in your bracket) moving into that top 7.

Really, you wouldn't move up Nebraska Even if they were to beat Penn State??

Nebraska is #8 in RPI. The committee modifies seedings slightly.. Moving up 1 spot will not surprise me at all.

The committee also has to make sure to distribute Illinois, Nebraska, USC, and Kentucky into separate regions.

It's definitely possible and a different discussion if Nebraska wins Saturday night. But as of now, like I said, they are ranked below all of those 7 teams in the 3 major rankings and (as of now) don't have a win over any of them.

That being said, the committee has done stranger things...

[FreeBall]

So, you're thinking Creighton doesn't get an at-large bid if they lose in the Big East tournament?

Also, you have at least 28 teams traveling 400+ miles the first weekend. The way the field is shaping us this year, it's going to be fairly easy to do a bracket with this number in the 18-20 range. I'll be shocked if the actual bracket goes higher than that range.

[n00b]

Nov 28, 2013 21:37:33 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

So, you're thinking Creighton doesn't get an at-large bid if they lose in the Big East tournament?

Also, you have at least 28 teams traveling 400+ miles the first weekend. The way the field is shaping us this year, it's going to be fairly easy to do a bracket with this number in the 18-20 range. I'll be shocked if the actual bracket goes higher than that range.

Well, he didn't include Duke in the "Locked At Large Bids" either, so I just assumed he left them off since they're a projected conference champion.

[FreeBall]

But, Duke is in his Complete Predicted Bracket. Creighton is not.

[trojansc]

Nov 28, 2013 21:53:10 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

But, Duke is in his Complete Predicted Bracket. Creighton is not.

That was a mistake. I repeated Georgia instead of including Creighton. They are included now

By the way, it's hard to make Pac-12, Big 10, and SEC teams travel under 400 miles because of avoiding same conference matchups. What changes would you make?

[Deleted]

Nov 28, 2013 19:49:59 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Click here to see Trojan Bracketology 2012

Trojan Bracketology 11/28/2013
* Final Bracketology posted on Saturday 11/30 after all matches conclude. Feel free to post comments, suggestions, revisions, and corrections...


Automatic Qualifiers (32)
*5 Conference champions still To Be Determined....
*RPI in Parentheses....

ACC – Duke (18) or North Carolina (21) or Florida State (19)
America East – New Hampshire (205)
AAC –Louisville. (36)
Atlantic 10 – Duquense (98)
Atlantic Sun – Jacksonville (96)
Big 10 – Penn State (2)
Big 12 – Texas (1)
Big East – Creighton (16) or Marquette (10) or Butler (41) or Xavier (53)
Big Sky – Toss Up..
Big South – Radford (159)
Big West – UCSB (59) or Hawai'i (11)
Colonial – College of Charleston (68)
Conference USA – UTSA (47)
Horizon – Milwaukee (79)
Ivy – Yale (43)
MAAC – Fairfield (156)
MAC – Ohio (35)
MEAC – Hampton (190)
MVC – Wichita State (46) .. Northern Iowa (55) .. dark horse in MVC tournament: Southern Illinois
MWC – Colorado State (20)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (87)
OVC – Morehead State (91)
Pac-12 – Washington (3)
Patriot – American (44)
SEC – Missouri (5)
SoCon – Georgia Southern (73)
Southland – Central Arkansas (45)
Summit – IUPUI (109)
Sun Belt – Texas State (104)
SWAC – Alabama State (278)
WAC – New Mexico State (94)
WCC – San Diego (15)


Locked At-Large Bids (23)

ACC (At least 3 bids)
Florida State (19)
North Carolina (21)

Big 10 (At least 8 bids)
Nebraska (8)
Minnesota (13)
Wisconsin (14)
Michigan State (27)
Michigan (28)
Illinois (17)
Purdue (29)

Big 12 (At least 4 bids)
Kansas (12)
Oklahoma (23)
Iowa State (22)

Big East (At least 2 bids)
Marquette (10)

Big West (At least 2 bids)
Hawai'i (11)

PAC-12 (At least 7 bids)
USC (6)
Stanford (7)
Arizona (24)
Utah (26)
Oregon (25)
California (30)

SEC (At Least 3 bids but likely much more)
Florida (4)
Kentucky (9)

WCC (At Least 2 bids)
Brigham Young (31)


Final Contenders for an At-Large Bids
(25 teams for only 9 spots)

ACC (max 5 bids) – NC State (52) Miami (51)

Big 10 (max 9 bids) – Ohio State (49) Northwestern (57)

Big 12 (max 5 bids) – Kansas State (58)

Big East (max 4 bids) – Butler (41) Xavier (53)

Big West (max 3 bids)– Cal State Northridge (38) UC Santa Barbara (59)

Conference USA (max 3 bids) – Tulane (56) Tulsa (39)

MVC (max 3 bids) – Northern Iowa (55) Wichita State (46)

Pac-12 (max 10 bids)  – Colorado (54) UCLA (42) Arizona State (48)

Patriot (max 2 bids) – Colgate (50)

SEC (max 9 bids) – Texas A&M (32) Alabama (33) LSU (34) Arkansas (37) Georgia (40) Auburn (63)

Sun Belt (max 2 bids) – Western Kentucky (60)

WCC (max 2 bids) – Saint Mary’s (61)

Honorable Mention: Ball State, Pepperdine (pretty solid resume but a bad RPI), Washington State (not a bad resume but 11th in the Pac-12 with only a few victories won't and shouldn't cut it), Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth (VCU), and Virginia Tech were all close but not enough to grant a serious consideration for an at-large bid. But Congratulations on nice seasons to all of these schools. Pepperdine should not be too disappointed, I was an early critic of Pepperdine, but all of their losses were reasonable. Their resume for the tournament is not so bad - but their RPI is way too high..




Bubble At-Large Resume’s sorted by Conference
(As of 11/27 completed results)
* Information will be updated nightly until all matches conclude.

ACC

NC State
Overall Record: (20-11)
Conference Record: (11-8)
Non-Conference Record: (9-3)
RPI: 52
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 18 Duke, 64 VCU
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): None
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 47
Other: Lost four straight to Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Duke…
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-6
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Miami
Overall Record: (17-11)
Conference Record: (10-8)
Non-Conference Record: (7-3)
RPI: 51
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 21 North Carolina, 23 Oklahoma, 34 LSU, 52 North Carolina State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 43
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-6
Last 10 matches: 5-5

Big Ten

Ohio State
Overall Record: (17-14)
Conference Record: (5-14)
Non-Conference Record: (12-0)
RPI: 49
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 19 Florida State, 28 Michigan, 29 Purdue, 61 Western Kentucky
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 23
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-12
Last 10 matches: 3-7 and (3-12) in their last 15

Northwestern
Overall Record: (16-15)
Conference Record: (8-11)
Non-Conference Record: (8-4)
RPI: 57
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): Purdue(x2), Illinois, Ohio State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 26
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-13
Last 10 matches: 3-7

Big 12

Kansas State
Overall Record: (17-11)
Conference Record: (5-10)
Non-Conference Record: (12-1)
RPI: 58
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 22 Oklahoma, 30 California, 37 Arkansas
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 213 Texas Tech
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 47
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-6
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Big East

Butler
Overall Record: (24-7)
Conference Record: (11-5)
Non-Conference Record: (12-2)
RPI: 41
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 16 Creighton
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 76
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-5
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-7
Last 10 matches: 8-2


Xavier
Overall Record: (21-10)
Conference Record: (12-4)
Non-Conference Record: (9-6)
RPI: 53
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 41 Butler (x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 55
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-6
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 5-9
Other: It’s like déjà vu for Xavier, in this exact same position last year..
Last 10 matches: 8-2

Big West

Cal State Northridge
Overall Record: (22-6)
Conference Record: (12-3)
Non-Conference Record: (10-3)
RPI: 38
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 11 Hawai'i
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 85
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-4
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-6
Last 10 matches: 7-3

UC Santa Barbara
Overall Record: (17-9)
Conference Record: (12-2)
Non-Conference Record: (5-7)
RPI: 59
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 11 Hawai’i, 38 Cal State Northridge (x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams):63
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-8
Last 10 matches: 9-1


Conference USA

Tulsa
Overall Record: (24-7)
Conference Record: (12-3)
Non-Conference Record: (12-4)
RPI: 39
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 51 Miami
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 71
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 0-3
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-6
Last 10 matches: 7-3

Tulane
Overall Record: (28-4)
Conference Record: (13-3)
Non-Conference Record: (15-1)
RPI: 56
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 39 Tulsa(x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 173
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-2
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-2
Last 10 matches: 8-2

MVC

Wichita State
Overall Record: (26-6)
Conference Record: (15-3)
Non-Conference Record: (11-3)
RPI: 46
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 36 Louisville 55 Northern Iowa 63 VCU
Significant Losses (150+ RPI):
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams):106
Other:
Last 10 matches: 8-2


Northern Iowa
Overall Record: (23-7)
Conference Record: (15-3)
Non-Conference Record: (8-4)
RPI: 55
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 36 Louisville, 46 Wichita State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 105
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-4
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-7
Last 10 matches: 9-1

Pac-12

Colorado
Overall Record: (17-12)
Conference Record: (9-10)
Non-Conference Record: (8-2)
RPI: 54
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 3 Washington, 24 Arizona, 26 Utah, 42 UCLA, 48 Arizona State, 61 Saint Mary’s, 65 Washington State (x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 32
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-10
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 8-11
Last 10 matches: 4-6

UCLA
Overall Record: (15-13)
Conference Record: (6-12)
Non-Conference Record: (9-1)
RPI: 42
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 16 Creighton, 39 Cal State Northridge, 48 Arizona State, 65 Washington State(x2)
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 10
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-13
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-14
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Arizona State
Overall Record: (19-12)
Conference Record: (8-11)
Non-Conference Record: (11-1)
RPI: 48
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 1 Texas, 24 Arizona, 25 Oregon, 30 California, 42 UCLA, 54 Colorado, 46 Wichita State, 65 Washington State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 35
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-10
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-12
Last 10 matches: 6-4

Patriot

Colgate
Overall Record: (22-9)
Conference Record: (12-4)
Non-Conference Record: (10-5)
RPI: 50
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 47 NC State
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 152 Lehigh
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 64
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 0-6
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 2-8
Last 10 matches: (7-3)

SEC

Georgia
Overall Record: (21-9)
Conference Record: (11-7)
Non-Conference Record: (10-2)
RPI: 40
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 9 Kentucky, 34 LSU
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 41
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 2-9
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-9
Last 10 matches: 6-4

Alabama
Overall Record: (23-8)
Conference Record: (10-6)
Non-Conference Record: (13-2)
RPI: 33
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 32 Texas A&M, 37 Arkansas, 40 Georgia, 62 Auburn
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 204 Houston Baptist
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 45
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-6
Record vs. Top 100 RPI:7-7
Last 10 matches: 7-3

Texas A&M
Overall Record: (18-11)
Conference Record: (10-8)
Non-Conference Record: (8-3)
RPI: 32
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 24 Florida State, 37 Arkansas, 40 Georgia, 48 UT San Antonio
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams):18
Last 10 matches: 7-3
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 6-9
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 7-10

Auburn
Overall Record: (19-11)
Conference Record: (10-8)
Non-Conference Record: (9-3)
RPI: 63
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 6 Nebraska, 34 LSU(x2), 35 Texas A&M, 40 Arkansas
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 66
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-9
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 5-9
Last 10 matches: (7-3)

Arkansas
Overall Record: (16-12)
Conference Record: (9-8)
Non-Conference Record: (7-4)
RPI: 37
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 12 Kansas, 39 Tulsa, 40 Georgia
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 13
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-10
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-13
Last 10 matches: 4-6

Sun Belt

Western Kentucky
Overall Record: (27-6)
Conference Record: (15-1)
Non-Conference Record: (12-4)
RPI: 60
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 29 Purdue
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): 206 Louisiana Lafayette
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams):131
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-3
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 4-4
Last 10 matches: (9-1)

WCC

Saint Mary’s
Overall Record: (17-9)
Conference Record: (13-5)
Non-Conference Record: (4-4)
RPI: 61
Significant Wins (1-70 RPI): 15 San Diego, 22 Iowa State, 32 BYU, 54 Colorado, 51 Miami
Significant Losses (150+ RPI): NONE
Strength of Schedule Rank (out of 300+ teams): 71
Record vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-4
Record vs. Top 100 RPI: 6-6
Last 10 matches: (7-3)


Predictions and Analysis for At-Large Teams
* I will write an analysis of why I believe these are the teams.. but for now here are just my rough predictions (not final)

Summary (Final 8 At-Large Bids)

Not the Last Four In: Alabama, CSUN, Arkansas, Georgia

Last Four In: Butler, LSU, Colorado, UCLA

First Four Out: Tulsa, Arizona State, Saint Mary's, Miami

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Colgate, Auburn, NC State


Complete Predicted Bracket with Pairings

Illinois Regional
(1) Texas vs. Texas State
UT San Antonio vs. Texas A&M

(16) Illinois vs. IUPUI
Alabama vs. UCLA

(8) Stanford vs. New Hampshire
Central Arkansas vs. Michigan State

(9) Marquette vs. Milwaukee
North Carolina vs. Purdue

Los Angeles Regional
(4) Missouri vs. College of Charleston
Iowa State vs. Michigan

(13) San Diego vs. Fairfield
UC Santa Barbara vs. Colorado State

(5) Southern California vs. Radford
BYU vs. Cal State Northridge

(12) Hawai’i vs. New Mexico State
Colorado vs. Oklahoma

Lincoln Regional
(3) Washington vs. Big Sky Champion
Wisconsin vs. LSU

(14) Minnesota vs. Alabama State
Creighton vs. Oregon

(6) Nebraska vs. Hampton
Arkansas vs. Utah

(11) Kansas vs. Georgia Southern
Arizona vs. Wichita State

Lexington Regional
(2) Penn State vs. LIU Brooklyn
American vs. Yale

(15) Duke vs. Duquense
Georgia vs. Butler

(7) Florida vs. Jacksonville
Florida State vs. California

(10) Kentucky vs. Morehead State
Louisville vs. Ohio

If psu gets that Kentucky bracket u have, I'll just pencil them in for championship. They will fly through that bracket.

[cdizzle]

Not that I have issues with your overall seeds, but I don't see Stanford getting that Round 1 and 2. Stanford's not going to sent East in the first round, and they're not going to send three teams to California from as far out as New Hampshire, Central Arkansas, and Michigan State. Remember how important it is for the committee to keep travel miles down--it's the primary thing that screws up all of these honest attempts at putting together brackets.

[FreeBall]

Nov 29, 2013 0:32:57 GMT -5 trojansc said:

By the way, it's hard to make the PAC-12,Big 10 and SEC teams travel under 400 miles because of avoiding same conference matchups. What changes would you make?

You only have three groupings (Texas, Penn State and Kentucky) where all three teams are within 400 miles of the host site. My latest bracket, with the same 16 seeds/host sites as yours, has six (Texas, Penn State, Kentucky, Florida, Duke and Missouri). I'm confident the committee will not bypass the opportunity to avoid that many more flights within the actual bracket.