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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 1, 2014 20:08:13 GMT -5
I think the key promising thing for LB is there is a strong core of seniors returning, and all three who left were not very consistent at their position last year or had some drawbacks (Hampton/Juley - injuries, & DAS), and the incoming class is highly rated, two with some solid college experience/credentials in Hudson & Bukoved (just won the U21 Sand championships), so it is easy to imagine LB should at least be better than last year, and the teams above LB lost some key players.
and if Wallace & Miley improve (which they should), LB should be a talented deep team by Big West standards.
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Post by VivaLaVolley on Aug 1, 2014 20:16:47 GMT -5
Long Beach is not the team to beat. I believe Hawaii is. However, I believe Long Beach will be the most complete team. Hawaii's ball control was not strong last year and they lost the best player in the Big West, BY FAR! UCSB lost a ton of production and leadership in Sully and Thompson. We will see how they respond to the Honeymoon being over. Northridge is a dark horse. They could sneak up and win the whole thing. UCI and Cal Poly are the darkhorses to steal some wins from the top 4 and make it interesting.
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Post by HawaiiVB on Aug 1, 2014 23:15:53 GMT -5
I feel Hawai'i will have better passing because of the new players. Also, I still think Hawai'i is THE team to beat. Maturity for some returning players mixed with new transfers, redshirts and true freshmen will make for a different team but no less potent.
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Post by jake on Aug 2, 2014 13:35:13 GMT -5
The wins need to come against OOC schools.
Not against each other during conference.
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Post by Garand on Aug 2, 2014 15:03:51 GMT -5
The wins need to come against OOC schools. Not against each other during conference.
Getting into the tournament is based almost completely on RPI. A successful RPI stems from a combination of preseason play and conference play. We all understand choosing the right preseason opponents is nearly as important as beating them. They need to be teams that will finish the season with good win/loss records. A mix of skill, luck, and crystal ball expertise is required to produce a successful pre-season schedule.
The importance of winning during conference play is indirectly proportional to the strength of the conference: the stronger your conference, the less important it is to have a winning in-conference record. Last year in the Pac-12, for example, nine teams made the tournament, and the last two Pac-12 teams in, ASU and Colorado, made it with losing in-conference records (8-12, and 9-11, respectively). What's important, however, is that they had these records against teams with great overall win/loss records. The overall win/loss records of their Pac-12 in-conference opponents was close to 65 percent and ranged from 30-3 (Washington) to 9-22 (Oregon State). It's worth noting that Washington State, who finished right above Oregon State in next to last place, had a winning overall win/loss record of 18-15.
All of these Pac-12 teams had strong win/loss records in preseason play, which is going to be the case for pretty much all top tier teams. So, if you are in the B1G or Pac-12, expect to see a very, very good preseason record and a so-so conference record. This mediocre conference win/loss record won't hurt you because of the strength of the conference. (Of course, if you happen to be at the very top of your conference, like Washington, your conference win/loss record will be great, too.)
In the Big West, we have some strong teams that crack the top 30 or 40, but we also have some weak teams with poor win/loss percentages that finish beyond the 200 or 250 RPI range. These records drag down the RPI for the rest of the conference teams. This is true for every conference. Last year when top teams Stanford or USC were scrambling for every RPI point they could get in order to secure a better seed in the tourney, I'm sure they begrudged having to play Oregon State, who finished with a 9-22 overall record and hurt their RPI totals.
These same dynamics exist within every conference. Currently in the Big West it is necessary to finish very near the top in order to secure a spot in the tourney. In the Pac-12, a team can finish in the middle of the pack and still get in. While every team wants to become better and gain admittance to the tournament (or get a better seed in the tournament), the long term goal needs to be improvement of the conference as a whole. This is why we should be very happy to see Big West teams like Cal Poly stepping up their recruiting. This will pay off over the long term for them as an individual team and for the Big West conference as a whole. The stronger the conference is, the less important is to have a winning in-conference record. It's not really a problem when Pac-12 or B1G teams beat up on each other: their RPI's will be just fine. Ours will be too when the BW becomes better.
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Post by jake on Aug 2, 2014 17:51:38 GMT -5
The wins need to come against OOC schools. Not against each other during conference.
Getting into the tournament is based almost completely on RPI. A successful RPI stems from a combination of preseason play and conference play. We all understand choosing the right preseason opponents is nearly as important as beating them. They need to be teams that will finish the season with good win/loss records. A mix of skill, luck, and crystal ball expertise is required to produce a successful pre-season schedule.
You pretty much hit the nail on the proverbial head. So,…when a BWC coach says, "we have a tough preseason schedule inorder to prepare for conference", they are really only fooling themselves and hurting the conference on the whole. Preseason wins are probably more important than conference wins,…as your preseason record will have an over all effect on the entire conference. Yes,…you need a crystal ball or ouija board to make up a preseason schedule against teams that are good, but, ONLY good enough that your team has a better chance to win. Playing a bunch of top teams in the preseason and losing all the time is not the answer!
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Post by HawaiiVB on Aug 3, 2014 1:34:04 GMT -5
I think Hawai'i's preseason schedule is the toughest of the Big West. Its RPI should be the highest.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 3, 2014 9:41:39 GMT -5
The wins need to come against OOC schools. Not against each other during conference.
Getting into the tournament is based almost completely on RPI. A successful RPI stems from a combination of preseason play and conference play. We all understand choosing the right preseason opponents is nearly as important as beating them. They need to be teams that will finish the season with good win/loss records. A mix of skill, luck, and crystal ball expertise is required to produce a successful pre-season schedule.
Since RPI is geographically biased, it doesn't require too much skill. Basically play teams east of the Rockies in non-conference. The problem is if every West Coast did that, there would be no regional non-conference games in the west - which would basically just be silly and expensive. But if I was an AD, I simply would not play teams from the Pac-12, WCC, WAC, and exclude most of the MWC. I wouldn't even play Big-Ten teams, because even though their RPI is likely to be higher, the probability of a loss is high. I'd look at what I think will be the top 4 teams of the Ivy League, the Patriot League, & Conference USA. Then for BCS opponents I'd play the ACC & SEC teams (except a sure bottom-dweller). And then I'd try to get a middle of the pack Big-12 team (like Oklahoma). Basically, just schedule 4 home tournaments, and invite all those types of teams . High RPI, no travel, but a whole lot easier said than is practical. And under no circumstance play Washington or Cal - because they typically have had horrible RPI biases against them, in part from not playing eastern teams in the pre-season. So maybe to be practical - just play one WCC team, one Pac-12 team, and maybe one from the WAC/Mtw West - for everyone else, play the east.
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Post by jake on Aug 3, 2014 12:56:34 GMT -5
I think Hawai'i's preseason schedule is the toughest of the Big West. Its RPI should be the highest. Sure,…if, they win the majority of those matches they will have a very good RPI.
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Post by HawaiiVB on Aug 3, 2014 15:51:51 GMT -5
Lol. right if they have a positive record coming out of it. So last year, Hartong played injured without complaining. It was the same with Danielson. What many don't know is that many seniors are playing injured. Production from them drops way off and the teams suffered.
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Post by Garand on Aug 3, 2014 16:10:21 GMT -5
Getting into the tournament is based almost completely on RPI. A successful RPI stems from a combination of preseason play and conference play. We all understand choosing the right preseason opponents is nearly as important as beating them. They need to be teams that will finish the season with good win/loss records. A mix of skill, luck, and crystal ball expertise is required to produce a successful pre-season schedule.
Since RPI is geographically biased, it doesn't require too much skill. Basically play teams east of the Rockies in non-conference. The problem is if every West Coast did that, there would be no regional non-conference games in the west - which would basically just be silly and expensive. But if I was an AD, I simply would not play teams from the Pac-12, WCC, WAC, and exclude most of the MWC. I wouldn't even play Big-Ten teams, because even though their RPI is likely to be higher, the probability of a loss is high. I'd look at what I think will be the top 4 teams of the Ivy League, the Patriot League, & Conference USA. Then for BCS opponents I'd play the ACC & SEC teams (except a sure bottom-dweller). And then I'd try to get a middle of the pack Big-12 team (like Oklahoma). Basically, just schedule 4 home tournaments, and invite all those types of teams . High RPI, no travel, but a whole lot easier said than is practical. And under no circumstance play Washington or Cal - because they typically have had horrible RPI biases against them, in part from not playing eastern teams in the pre-season. So maybe to be practical - just play one WCC team, one Pac-12 team, and maybe one from the WAC/Mtw West - for everyone else, play the east. Thanks, nice addition to the discussion. I had never noticed that about Cal and Washington. What is their reasoning? Budget issues?
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Aug 3, 2014 16:55:44 GMT -5
glad the RPI discussion has been triggered ...
yes, it's true cal and washington have traditionally not gone 'east' as much in the pre-season. altho, washington's ooc schedule this year diverts from that this year a little.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 3, 2014 17:27:37 GMT -5
I think Hawai'i's preseason schedule is the toughest of the Big West. Its RPI should be the highest. except that having a tough pre-season schedule correlating with high RPI isn't necessarily the case the best path to a high RPI is probably scheduling top teams in average conferences, and having those teams playing top teams in less than average conferences - the most important thing is winning or course kinda like a pyramid scheme to scheduling!!
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Post by thebeach1 on Aug 4, 2014 11:41:57 GMT -5
Will LBSU's relatively weak pre-season schedule cause their RPI to take a hit? IMHO, I think BG intentionally put together a less than steller pre season schedule to allow this team, with 9 newcomers, to gel. The Beach could go 12-2, or 13-1, OCC and thus provide them the confidence they will need in Big West play. The Beach will be deep at every position and, if they stay healthy, they could return as BWC champions-- after a two year absence.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 4, 2014 13:17:53 GMT -5
Will LBSU's relatively weak pre-season schedule cause their RPI to take a hit? IMHO, I think BG intentionally put together a less than steller pre season schedule to allow this team, with 9 newcomers, to gel. The Beach could go 12-2, or 13-1, OCC and thus provide them the confidence they will need in Big West play. The Beach will be deep at every position and, if they stay healthy, they could return as BWC champions-- after a two year absence. the only difficultly with the schedule is that the toughest non-conf weekend is the very first - not a lot of opps for 'quality' wins, so it's incumbent to jel quickly
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