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Post by mclvbdad on Jul 25, 2014 14:33:21 GMT -5
Well, I'm a real stat geek so I thought I would take a look at the SEC through stats.
I took the data Rich Kern provided on % of production lost due to graduation as a starting point. Then I updated that data to include all roster changes due to transfers and other players losses. To roll it up into a single number I averaged the losses due to Kills, Assists, Aces, Digs and Total Blocks. This is what you get for the SEC.
Team 2013 Standings % Lost Graduation % Lost Graduation and Transfer
Missouri 1 43.4 43.4
Florida 2 34.2 34.2
Kentucky 3 30.7 30.7
Alabama 4 12.4 12.7
Georgia 4 39.3 57.3
Auburn 6 66.8 72.2
Texas A&M 6 47.5 56.1
Arkansas 8 50.8 51.6
LSU 9 6.7 7.3
Ole Miss 10 13.5 24.8
Mississippi State 11 4.9 74.5
South Carolina 11 21.6 27.0
Tennessee 13 18.7 36.3
Thoughts on predicting 2014 finish by looking at these stats: Missouri will have a tough time staying on top of the SEC with what they lost to graduation. Question is how far will they drop. Florida should be OK with the strength of their recruiting class and should return to the top spot. Kentucky should stay in the top 3 because of the losses to most of the teams that could overtake them. Alabama will be interesting, they only lost one starter and they have the personnel to improve that position. Key will be how they match up with UK, Missouri and LSU this year. LSU is the real wild card. If they can be consistent they have the potential to make a huge jump within the conference, potentially top 3. Ole Miss returns a lot of young talent and could be able to move into the upper half of the SEC. MSU, Auburn, UT and Georgia should be the bottom 4. Texas A&M, Arkansas, South Carolina and Ole Miss should end up in the middle 4. UF and UK at the top with Missouri, LSU and Alabama fighting for 3rd through 5th.
NCAA Tournament prediction: Six bids. I would expect UF, UK, LSU, Missouri and Alabama to be pretty solid. Last spot will be a toss up between A&M, Arkansas and Ole Miss.
Thoughts? Anyone with access to Rick Kern's site want to try this for other conferences?
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Post by kro2488 on Jul 25, 2014 15:49:33 GMT -5
Stats are just numbers on paper, what matters is what happens real time in a match, never was big on them. Sometimes a team will have a higher total number of points and still lose because it depends when the points are and where they come.
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Post by WahineFan44 on Jul 25, 2014 16:21:40 GMT -5
Stats are just numbers on paper, what matters is what happens real time in a match, never was big on them. Sometimes a team will have a higher total number of points and still lose because it depends when the points are and where they come. Case in point hawaii vs USC 2011 regional semis. Statically hawaii was the better team in almost all categories. But USC scored when they needed to and in the pivotal fifth set to take it |
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Post by kro2488 on Jul 25, 2014 18:00:30 GMT -5
Stats are just numbers on paper, what matters is what happens real time in a match, never was big on them. Sometimes a team will have a higher total number of points and still lose because it depends when the points are and where they come. Case in point hawaii vs USC 2011 regional semis. Statically hawaii was the better team in almost all categories. But USC scored when they needed to and in the pivotal fifth set to take it Also a few of the tough losses to TN Florida had last few years. |
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Post by mclvbdad on Jul 25, 2014 20:41:51 GMT -5
These aren't stats for a single game or a single match. There are always exceptions, but stats over a large base of data do identify trends. Do you think it was a fluke that Penn State was in the top 25 in several of the categories used above? I think not, its an indicator that verifies the validity of stats more than it discredits them.
I'm not saying this is an exact science, just another fun way of predicting future performance. And a little more substantial than a biased fan guessing.
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Post by vbshrink on Jul 26, 2014 23:53:19 GMT -5
Thanks for doing this - very interesting to look over. I am not 100% sold on the concept of "production," in and of itself, though. Take, for example, Mizzou and Arkansas.
Arkansas loses its two setters, one fairly mediocre OH who was frequently benched for being error prone and ineffective (though in some matches she put up great numbers), and a good but not great libero. Four starting hitters return, and so does an OPP who started as a freshman but who sat out most of last year nursing injuries. To my way of thinking, the only serious losses here are one setter (Santos) who set 4 or 5/6 rotations and hit in the other, and the libero. The OH wasn't consistently starting at the end of the year. And yet Kern says 50% productivity was lost? The only transfer/departure that isn't graduation is a freshman OH who never played front row and had minimal time in the back row.
Mizzou loses Molly Kreklow and Lisa Henning, and that is monumental. Carly Kan and the dominating middles return, but a) will the middles be so dominating without Kreklow and Henning, and b) Kan will not sneak up on anyone this year, and won't benefit from concern about Henning. I would rather be in Arkansas' shoes every day and twice on Sunday. But the numbers say Arkansas lost more. And to me, that's how the numbers lie. ;-)
If either of Arkansas' new setters catches on and settles in, I think Arkansas can actually be better than they were last year. The libero replacement will be an interesting question, too, obviously.
I think Florida looks easily like the class of the conference, and after them I could see a lot of different teams rising or falling. I like Bama a lot because they return a lot from a team that clearly exceeded expectations last year. I do think McQuaid will be tough to replace, but they have some good young talent. Kentucky is strong, but losing Billings (especially) and Morgan will hurt. LSU will be interesting to watch. Mizzou obviously has talent coming back, and Auburn has some wonderful young players. Can Ole Miss make some progress beyond their strong middles? I don't have much hope for SC, and TN and MS State have too much ground to make up. I'm really looking forward to the season! Should be Florida and a shootout below them.
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Post by mclvbdad on Jul 27, 2014 11:34:05 GMT -5
Thanks for doing this - very interesting to look over. I am not 100% sold on the concept of "production," in and of itself, though. Take, for example, Mizzou and Arkansas. Arkansas loses its two setters, one fairly mediocre OH who was frequently benched for being error prone and ineffective (though in some matches she put up great numbers), and a good but not great libero. Four starting hitters return, and so does an OPP who started as a freshman but who sat out most of last year nursing injuries. To my way of thinking, the only serious losses here are one setter (Santos) who set 4 or 5/6 rotations and hit in the other, and the libero. The OH wasn't consistently starting at the end of the year. And yet Kern says 50% productivity was lost? The only transfer/departure that isn't graduation is a freshman OH who never played front row and had minimal time in the back row. Mizzou loses Molly Kreklow and Lisa Henning, and that is monumental. Carly Kan and the dominating middles return, but a) will the middles be so dominating without Kreklow and Henning, and b) Kan will not sneak up on anyone this year, and won't benefit from concern about Henning. I would rather be in Arkansas' shoes every day and twice on Sunday. But the numbers say Arkansas lost more. And to me, that's how the numbers lie. ;-) If either of Arkansas' new setters catches on and settles in, I think Arkansas can actually be better than they were last year. The libero replacement will be an interesting question, too, obviously. I think Florida looks easily like the class of the conference, and after them I could see a lot of different teams rising or falling. I like Bama a lot because they return a lot from a team that clearly exceeded expectations last year. I do think McQuaid will be tough to replace, but they have some good young talent. Kentucky is strong, but losing Billings (especially) and Morgan will hurt. LSU will be interesting to watch. Mizzou obviously has talent coming back, and Auburn has some wonderful young players. Can Ole Miss make some progress beyond their strong middles? I don't have much hope for SC, and TN and MS State have too much ground to make up. I'm really looking forward to the season! Should be Florida and a shootout below them. Point well made on Arkansas and Missouri. Its as much about who you lose as it is about what you lose. Arkansas and Missouri both lost most of their assists and with Missouri losing a few more kills. Arkansas's loss was higher because they lost more of their digs. Replacing a libero like Helm will be easier than replacing a hitter like Henning. |
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