RPI Futures 9/21

[bluepenquin]

Here is the updated RPI futures.   Very little left to change as far as RPI schedule.  Very little difference once you get past around #20 - so small changes can lead to larger moves.

Based on doing this in the past - the most common error is overestimating the final record of the top teams.  Almost every projection will do this.   

1. Stanford (28-2)
2. Texas (24-1)
3. Florida State (27-3)
4. Washington (28-3)
5. Wisconsin (27-3)
6. Oregon (24-6)
7. Penn State (30-3)
8. North Carolina (23-5)
9. Colorado State (29-2)
10. USC (21-9)
11. Florida (22-6)
12. Kansas (22-8)
13. BYU (25-4)
14. Illinois (24-7)
15. Kentucky (25-6)
16. Nebraska (20-9)
17. Hawaii (23-4)
18. Marquette (26-5)
19. Iowa State (17-10)
20. Texas A&M (21-8)
21. UCLA (19-12)
22. Oklahoma (20-10)
23. Kansas State (21-9)
24. Loyola Marymount (25-5)
25. Arizona (21-11)
26. Cal State Northridge (22-6)
27. North Carolina State (21-9)
28. Duke (20-9)
29. Minnesota (21-10)
30. Arizona State (20-12)
31. Northwestern (21-10)
32. SMU (26-6)
33. Lipscomb (20-7)
34. Central Florida (23-9)
35. Louisville (20-10)
36. Ohio (22-6)
37. Appalachian State (27-3)
38. Western Kentucky (27-5)
39. Pittsburgh (24-7)
40. Utah (17-14)
41. San Diego (19-11)
42. Purdue (23-9)
43. Tulsa (22-9)
44. Creighton (21-10)
45. Illinois State (22-7)
46. Long Beach State (22-8)
47. UNC Wilmington (23-7)
48. Michigan (15-15)
49. VCU (18-10)
50. Harvard (19-4)
51. Alabama (21-11)
52. Virginia Tech (16-15)
53. Colorado (15-17)
54. Ohio State (17-15)
55. Louisiana-Lafayette (25-7)
56. Xavier (20-11)
57. Oregon State (15-16)
58. Santa Clara (20-11)
59. New Mexico (20-11)
60. American (25-5)
61. Michigan State (17-14)
62. Coastal Carolina (22-6)
63. Wichita State (20-8)
64. Virginia (18-15)
65. Rice (22-8)
66. West Virginia (17-13)
67. Baylor (14-17)
68. Mississippi (23-9)
69. Wyoming (23-8)
70. Yale (17-7)
71. UNLV (24-9)
72. Butler (22-8)
73. TCU (17-15)
74. Missouri State (20-10)
75. Georgia (18-13)
76. Clemson (20-12)
77. Missouri (19-14)
78. New Mexico State (20-7)
79. Northern Arizona (23-4)
80. Eastern Michigan (20-10)
81. LSU (14-13)
82. Auburn (16-15)
83. Valparaiso (26-5)
84. Denver (24-7)
85. Miami-FL (15-14)
86. George Washington (19-9)
87. Northern Iowa (19-11)
88. Texas Tech (17-11)
89. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (16-12)
90. Houston (18-13)
91. Washington State (13-19)
92. South Carolina (18-13)
93. Arkansas-Little Rock (19-11)
94. Gonzaga (17-12)
95. California (12-18)
96. Dayton (23-9)
97. Northern Kentucky (19-9)
98. Radford (21-8)
99. Furman (20-7)
100. Central Arkansas (19-10)

[spikerthemovie]

Sept 22, 2014 20:20:11 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is the updated RPI futures.   Very little left to change as far as RPI schedule.  Very little difference once you get past around #20 - so small changes can lead to larger moves.

Based on doing this in the past - the most common error is overestimating the final record of the top teams.  Almost every projection will do this.   

1. Stanford (28-2)
2. Texas (24-1)
3. Florida State (27-3)
4. Washington (28-3)
5. Wisconsin (27-3)
6. Oregon (24-6)
7. Penn State (30-3)
8. North Carolina (23-5)
9. Colorado State (29-2)
10. USC (21-9)
11. Florida (22-6)
12. Kansas (22-8)
13. BYU (25-4)
14. Illinois (24-7)
15. Kentucky (25-6)
16. Nebraska (20-9)
17. Hawaii (23-4)
18. Marquette (26-5)
19. Iowa State (17-10)
20. Texas A&M (21-8)
21. UCLA (19-12)
22. Oklahoma (20-10)
23. Kansas State (21-9)
24. Loyola Marymount (25-5)
25. Arizona (21-11)
26. Cal State Northridge (22-6)
27. North Carolina State (21-9)
28. Duke (20-9)
29. Minnesota (21-10)
30. Arizona State (20-12)
31. Northwestern (21-10)
32. SMU (26-6)
33. Lipscomb (20-7)
34. Central Florida (23-9)
35. Louisville (20-10)
36. Ohio (22-6)
37. Appalachian State (27-3)
38. Western Kentucky (27-5)
39. Pittsburgh (24-7)
40. Utah (17-14)
41. San Diego (19-11)
42. Purdue (23-9)
43. Tulsa (22-9)
44. Creighton (21-10)
45. Illinois State (22-7)
46. Long Beach State (22-8)
47. UNC Wilmington (23-7)
48. Michigan (15-15)
49. VCU (18-10)
50. Harvard (19-4)
51. Alabama (21-11)
52. Virginia Tech (16-15)
53. Colorado (15-17)
54. Ohio State (17-15)
55. Louisiana-Lafayette (25-7)
56. Xavier (20-11)
57. Oregon State (15-16)
58. Santa Clara (20-11)
59. New Mexico (20-11)
60. American (25-5)
61. Michigan State (17-14)
62. Coastal Carolina (22-6)
63. Wichita State (20-8)
64. Virginia (18-15)
65. Rice (22-8)
66. West Virginia (17-13)
67. Baylor (14-17)
68. Mississippi (23-9)
69. Wyoming (23-8)
70. Yale (17-7)
71. UNLV (24-9)
72. Butler (22-8)
73. TCU (17-15)
74. Missouri State (20-10)
75. Georgia (18-13)
76. Clemson (20-12)
77. Missouri (19-14)
78. New Mexico State (20-7)
79. Northern Arizona (23-4)
80. Eastern Michigan (20-10)
81. LSU (14-13)
82. Auburn (16-15)
83. Valparaiso (26-5)
84. Denver (24-7)
85. Miami-FL (15-14)
86. George Washington (19-9)
87. Northern Iowa (19-11)
88. Texas Tech (17-11)
89. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (16-12)
90. Houston (18-13)
91. Washington State (13-19)
92. South Carolina (18-13)
93. Arkansas-Little Rock (19-11)
94. Gonzaga (17-12)
95. California (12-18)
96. Dayton (23-9)
97. Northern Kentucky (19-9)
98. Radford (21-8)
99. Furman (20-7)
100. Central Arkansas (19-10)

Thanks for doing this. It's fun to compare against what one expects for specific teams. (For instance, this has Minnesota losing nine conference matches but, even being conservative, I don't think Minnesota loses more than eight and I honestly think it'll be more like six/seven. We shall see.)

[baywatcher]

Tournament cutoff for RPI is usually around 45, although I see quite a few single entry only conference champs below that mark;SMU, Lipscomb, Wilmington, Central Florida, Appalachian State; if those teams have sub 45 RPI then the list of 64 could extend out to 47 or 48. Puts LBSU, Michigan and Alabama right on the bubble.

[baywatcher]

It looks like you have Cal going 4-16 in conference this year. Boy, as a Cal fan that smarts, but probably not a bad prognostication.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 22, 2014 22:01:30 GMT -5 baywatcher said:

It looks like you have Cal going 4-16 in conference this year. Boy, as a Cal fan that smarts, but probably not a bad prognostication.

It is really hard to project final records in the Pac 12 and the Big 10 (and I will be wrong on a lot of this). Cal has now dropped to the bottom of the conference according to Pablo which prompted me to put them at 4-16. It is really difficult to come up with enough losses. 

Kind of the same thing with the Big 10 - although the bottom of the Big 10 is much weaker. But trying to guess who will finish 3rd through 7th or 8th is difficult - and that is assuming Penn State and Wisconsin are the top two (which is not a guarantee). 

And what happens in those two conferences will determine which among many good candidates will get seeds - and that is a good thing. 

[ay2013]

Sept 22, 2014 20:20:11 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is the updated RPI futures.   Very little left to change as far as RPI schedule.  Very little difference once you get past around #20 - so small changes can lead to larger moves.

Based on doing this in the past - the most common error is overestimating the final record of the top teams.  Almost every projection will do this.   

1. Stanford (28-2)
2. Texas (24-1)
3. Florida State (27-3)
4. Washington (28-3)
5. Wisconsin (27-3)
6. Oregon (24-6)
7. Penn State (30-3)
8. North Carolina (23-5)
9. Colorado State (29-2)
10. USC (21-9)
11. Florida (22-6)
12. Kansas (22-8)
13. BYU (25-4)
14. Illinois (24-7)
15. Kentucky (25-6)
16. Nebraska (20-9)
17. Hawaii (23-4)
18. Marquette (26-5)
19. Iowa State (17-10)
20. Texas A&M (21-8)
21. UCLA (19-12)
22. Oklahoma (20-10)
23. Kansas State (21-9)
24. Loyola Marymount (25-5)
25. Arizona (21-11)
26. Cal State Northridge (22-6)
27. North Carolina State (21-9)
28. Duke (20-9)
29. Minnesota (21-10)
30. Arizona State (20-12)
31. Northwestern (21-10)
32. SMU (26-6)
33. Lipscomb (20-7)
34. Central Florida (23-9)
35. Louisville (20-10)
36. Ohio (22-6)
37. Appalachian State (27-3)
38. Western Kentucky (27-5)
39. Pittsburgh (24-7)
40. Utah (17-14)
41. San Diego (19-11)
42. Purdue (23-9)
43. Tulsa (22-9)
44. Creighton (21-10)
45. Illinois State (22-7)
46. Long Beach State (22-8)
47. UNC Wilmington (23-7)
48. Michigan (15-15)
49. VCU (18-10)
50. Harvard (19-4)
51. Alabama (21-11)
52. Virginia Tech (16-15)
53. Colorado (15-17)
54. Ohio State (17-15)
55. Louisiana-Lafayette (25-7)
56. Xavier (20-11)
57. Oregon State (15-16)
58. Santa Clara (20-11)
59. New Mexico (20-11)
60. American (25-5)
61. Michigan State (17-14)
62. Coastal Carolina (22-6)
63. Wichita State (20-8)
64. Virginia (18-15)
65. Rice (22-8)
66. West Virginia (17-13)
67. Baylor (14-17)
68. Mississippi (23-9)
69. Wyoming (23-8)
70. Yale (17-7)
71. UNLV (24-9)
72. Butler (22-8)
73. TCU (17-15)
74. Missouri State (20-10)
75. Georgia (18-13)
76. Clemson (20-12)
77. Missouri (19-14)
78. New Mexico State (20-7)
79. Northern Arizona (23-4)
80. Eastern Michigan (20-10)
81. LSU (14-13)
82. Auburn (16-15)
83. Valparaiso (26-5)
84. Denver (24-7)
85. Miami-FL (15-14)
86. George Washington (19-9)
87. Northern Iowa (19-11)
88. Texas Tech (17-11)
89. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (16-12)
90. Houston (18-13)
91. Washington State (13-19)
92. South Carolina (18-13)
93. Arkansas-Little Rock (19-11)
94. Gonzaga (17-12)
95. California (12-18)
96. Dayton (23-9)
97. Northern Kentucky (19-9)
98. Radford (21-8)
99. Furman (20-7)
100. Central Arkansas (19-10)

switch out Hawaii for Nebraska for the 16 spot, and Wisconsin for Washington swap for the Big 10 to have a top seed, and I think we have ourselves a bracket!

1. Stanford
8. North Carolina
9. Colorado State
16. Hawaii

2. Texas
7. Penn State
10. USC
15. Kentucky

3. Florida State
6. Oregon
11. Florida
14. Illinois

4. Wisconsin
5. Washington
12. Kansas
13. BYU

[spikerthemovie]

Just noticed this model has Hawaii winning out. Really?

[Cubicle No More ...]

Sept 23, 2014 1:25:40 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Just noticed this model has Hawaii winning out. Really?

not quite. this has them going 15-1. attainable, but a reach. it's more likely that the top 3 teams (hawaii, csun and lbsu) beat up on each other ... with mid-teams (like ucsb) possibly sneaking in a win against them.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 23, 2014 1:45:50 GMT -5 Cubicle No More ... said:

Sept 23, 2014 1:25:40 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Just noticed this model has Hawaii winning out. Really?

not quite. this has them going 15-1. attainable, but a reach. it's more likely that the top 3 teams (hawaii, csun and lbsu) beat up on each other ... with mid-teams (like ucsb) possibly sneaking in a win against them.

Agreed.  I kind of was interested in Hawaii's potential RPI.  Like I said - take my top 20 and I have overstated their wins.  In many cases, I tried to compensate for this - Texas losing a game - Stanford and Washington, Wisconsin, and PSU losing a couple games in conference, etc...   Still, I am taking the under on the combined wins of those top 20 - and that will be the case for anyone that tries to project wins this far out.

[Deleted]

I know this thread is mostly about RPI, and that it is ultimately useless to try and predict individual games so far in advance, but it is fun. I think finding 10 wins for Michigan in conference play this year to get them to a 15/15 record is going to be a major challenge, largely due to their poor start and unbalanced schedule. They have single games against Rutgers and Maryland on the road and Iowa at home. I assume they will win those three games. Let’s also say they split the home/away series with rivals MSU and OSU, as is often the case. Add to that a sweep of Indiana in the home/away series and there are 7 wins. Assuming they don’t upset PSU and WISC in their home/away series, to get the minimum three wins they need they would need to defeat NW and MINN in their single game at home, and get a split with ILL in their home/away series. Any one or even two of these is not impossible, but absent a big improvement in the team’s play from the OC schedule, to get all three seems to be asking a lot. Let’s hope for Michigan fans they are up to the task when the time comes and that the RPI number holds up!

[volleytology]

Which 4 teams host the Regionals this year ?

[postitagain2]

VCU isn' going to be 18-10. They are 5-7 right now. But I'm a numbers/stat person, so I like the thread -- nice job throwing this out here. It's fun to speculate.

[rainbowbadger]

Sept 23, 2014 6:55:53 GMT -5 volleytology said:

Which 4 teams host the Regionals this year ?

Minnesota
Iowa State
Louisville
Washington

[volleytology]

Sept 23, 2014 7:22:44 GMT -5 alpacaone said:

Sept 23, 2014 6:55:53 GMT -5 volleytology said:

Which 4 teams host the Regionals this year ?

Iowa state; MN; Louisville; Seattle, WA

Thanks; looks like potentially 3 of the 4 hosts will perhaps not be seeded

[n00b]

Sept 23, 2014 6:59:55 GMT -5 postitagain2 said:

VCU isn' going to be 18-10. They are 5-7 right now. But I'm a numbers/stat person, so I like the thread -- nice job throwing this out here. It's fun to speculate.

You think they'll be better or worse than that?

VCU's WORST loss of the season is to Pablo #59 Virginia Tech. They also have wins over #55 Virginia and #76 UCSB. There are zero top-100 teams in the A10. Dayton, Saint Louis, GW and Duquesne are all loseable matches, but going 4-3 against that group and 9-0 against the bottom half of the conference seems perfectly reasonable.