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Post by notpriddy (COIF) on Sept 29, 2014 13:02:50 GMT -5
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Post by jayj79 on Sept 29, 2014 19:34:39 GMT -5
if I were to guess, I'd predict that it will come down to ILS, UNI, and WSU at the top of the conference at the end of the year. Will be interesting to see who ends up with the top 2 spots (and thus the first round byes in the conference tourney). With the Panthers and Shockers having fairly young teams (and inconsistent play), and the strong start to the season that the Redbirds have had, I could see them pulling away a bit, but I could also see it being a big dogfight. And there is always a chance of just about any of the other Valley teams getting hot and pulling off upsets.
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Post by bucky415 on Sept 29, 2014 23:35:58 GMT -5
I just hope Bradley wins a match at some point. It would be great if it was against ISU, but I really doubt that will happen.
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Post by vbman100 on Sept 30, 2014 7:01:03 GMT -5
I just hope Bradley wins a match at some point. It would be great if it was against ISU, but I really doubt that will happen. I think they have a good chance against Indiana State. You don't? |
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Post by bucky415 on Sept 30, 2014 11:25:34 GMT -5
Sorry. From a Bradley perspective, ISU=Illinois State. Big rivalry and all.
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Post by WI FIB on Sept 30, 2014 12:09:06 GMT -5
I just hope Bradley wins a match at some point. It would be great if it was against ISU, but I really doubt that will happen. I think they have a good chance against Indiana State. You don't? I've seen them both play. I would call it far from a good chance. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2014 15:01:43 GMT -5
I just hope Bradley wins a match at some point. It would be great if it was against ISU, but I really doubt that will happen. Bradley has had injury issues since day 1. Two starting middles and two starting LS's are out. 3 frosh are stepping up. Good program going through a hard time but they will come out of it I'm sure... |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 1, 2014 8:57:16 GMT -5
I just hope Bradley wins a match at some point. It would be great if it was against ISU, but I really doubt that will happen. Bradley has had injury issues since day 1. Two starting middles and two starting LS's are out. 3 frosh are stepping up. Good program going through a hard time but they will come out of it I'm sure... que? "Going through a hard time"? Bradley hasn't done much of anything for 12 years. Their only saving grace is that they've gotten to compete with Drake and Indiana St for the doormat of the Valley. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2014 12:28:45 GMT -5
Bradley has had injury issues since day 1. Two starting middles and two starting LS's are out. 3 frosh are stepping up. Good program going through a hard time but they will come out of it I'm sure... que? "Going through a hard time"? Bradley hasn't done much of anything for 12 years. Their only saving grace is that they've gotten to compete with Drake and Indiana St for the doormat of the Valley. They made the MVC tourney last year which certainly wasn't "doormat" so ya' I'd say they were on the upswing until the injuries... |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 1, 2014 16:28:30 GMT -5
que? "Going through a hard time"? Bradley hasn't done much of anything for 12 years. Their only saving grace is that they've gotten to compete with Drake and Indiana St for the doormat of the Valley. They made the MVC tourney last year which certainly wasn't "doormat" so ya' I'd say they were on the upswing until the injuries... That's a sign of how far the Valley has fallen. There are only 5 good teams, so someone among the other 5 has to make the tournament. Here are the Pablo rankings for the Valley teams last year 35 Wichita State 5890 68 Northern Iowa 5580 73 Illinois State 5530 87 Missouri State 5410 95 Southern Illinois 5355 171 Loyola-Chicago 4975 191 Bradley 4865 210 Indiana State 4785 234 Evansville 4635 301 Drake 4130 Look at the dropoff between 5 and 6. Bradley's end of the season Pablo rank the last three years has been 183, 185 and 191. They aren't getting better - the Valley is dropping. Replacing Creighton with Loyola has dropped them overall, and meanwhile no one has stepped up to that elite level like they used to be. Here's the Valley 2012 28 Wichita State 6595 33 Northern Iowa 6470 50 Illinois State 6105 66 Missouri State 5860 79 Southern Illinois 5755 181 Evansville 4865 184 Loyola-Chicago 4845 185 Bradley 4840 186 Drake 4835 214 Indiana State 4575 Again, 5 good teams. Add Creighton that year makes 6. Here's 2011 33 Northern Iowa 6490 54 Wichita State 6025 79 Missouri State 5770 140 Illinois State 5220 183 Bradley 4780 185 Evansville 4770 188 Indiana State 4725 213 Drake 4510 246 Southern Illinois 4245 282 Loyola-Chicago 3835 3 good teams (4 with Creighton). 2010 17 Northern Iowa 6875 52 Wichita State 6210 97 Missouri State 5635 99 Illinois State 5630 112 Drake 5480 147 Evansville 5155 157 Southern Illinois 5050 195 Indiana State 4735 201 Bradley 4695 210 Loyola-Chicago 4655 |
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Post by vbman100 on Oct 2, 2014 7:12:34 GMT -5
They made the MVC tourney last year which certainly wasn't "doormat" so ya' I'd say they were on the upswing until the injuries... That's a sign of how far the Valley has fallen. There are only 5 good teams, so someone among the other 5 has to make the tournament. Here are the Pablo rankings for the Valley teams last year 35 Wichita State 5890 68 Northern Iowa 5580 73 Illinois State 5530 87 Missouri State 5410 95 Southern Illinois 5355 171 Loyola-Chicago 4975 191 Bradley 4865 210 Indiana State 4785 234 Evansville 4635 301 Drake 4130 Look at the dropoff between 5 and 6. Bradley's end of the season Pablo rank the last three years has been 183, 185 and 191. They aren't getting better - the Valley is dropping. Replacing Creighton with Loyola has dropped them overall, and meanwhile no one has stepped up to that elite level like they used to be. Here's the Valley 2012 28 Wichita State 6595 33 Northern Iowa 6470 50 Illinois State 6105 66 Missouri State 5860 79 Southern Illinois 5755 181 Evansville 4865 184 Loyola-Chicago 4845 185 Bradley 4840 186 Drake 4835 214 Indiana State 4575 Again, 5 good teams. Add Creighton that year makes 6. Here's 2011 33 Northern Iowa 6490 54 Wichita State 6025 79 Missouri State 5770 140 Illinois State 5220 183 Bradley 4780 185 Evansville 4770 188 Indiana State 4725 213 Drake 4510 246 Southern Illinois 4245 282 Loyola-Chicago 3835 3 good teams (4 with Creighton). 2010 17 Northern Iowa 6875 52 Wichita State 6210 97 Missouri State 5635 99 Illinois State 5630 112 Drake 5480 147 Evansville 5155 157 Southern Illinois 5050 195 Indiana State 4735 201 Bradley 4695 210 Loyola-Chicago 4655 Their total Pablo points have increased each year. What does that indicate? 4695 >> 4780 >> 4840 >> 4865 |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 2, 2014 7:59:05 GMT -5
Their total Pablo points have increased each year. What does that indicate? 4695 >> 4780 >> 4840 >> 4865 That they are still below average. (remember 5000 is average) There is no basis for you claim that they are a "good program." They haven't had a good TEAM in any season for more than a decade. That's not the sign of a good program. |
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Post by vbman100 on Oct 2, 2014 8:48:56 GMT -5
Their total Pablo points have increased each year. What does that indicate? 4695 >> 4780 >> 4840 >> 4865 That they are still below average. (remember 5000 is average) There is no basis for you claim that they are a "good program." They haven't had a good TEAM in any season for more than a decade. That's not the sign of a good program. I am not claiming they are a good program. I was just curious as to what the increase in Pablo points indicated. I really did not know if that was an indicator of improvement, a result of the conference getting worse so everyone squeezes closer (the high get lowered and the low get raised, if that makes sense??), something else, or really didn't indicate anything. Especially since the improvement is less than 200 points, which is less than what is given for a team with HCA, correct? |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 2, 2014 9:38:10 GMT -5
That they are still below average. (remember 5000 is average) There is no basis for you claim that they are a "good program." They haven't had a good TEAM in any season for more than a decade. That's not the sign of a good program. I am not claiming they are a good program. OK, that was roosterrouster's claim, which is what I replied to. So you agree with me, then, that roosterrouster's claim that it is a "Good program going through a hard time" is wrong. Glad to hear it. I don't know the annual average variation in ratings is, but I know that the average variation in team rankings is somewhere in the 30 - 40 range. So the variation they've had in the last couple of years has been much smaller than average changes. Teams that improve a lot over the years make jumps of a couple hundred points a couple years in a row. As you point out, Bradley didn't even improve a couple hundred points in those 4 years. Also, in context, their ranking hasn't consistently improved, either, but that depends a lot on other teams, too. Looking at that trend, over 4 years, the better broad assessment is that they have been pretty steady, not really going anywhere. If it is true that they are struggling with injuries, what you are seeing this year is if you take a team that's not real good from the start and give them some injuries, they end up winless. Improvement for Bradley would mean getting out of that bottom half of the Valley, out of the mix of Indiana St, Drake, Loyola-Chic, and Evansville. Those 5 (with Bradley) are all kind of interchangeable at this point. Improvement would be to do what SIU did, and into the mix of the upper half teams. Making the Valley tourney because you are the best of the bottom half doesn't mean much when the bottom half of the Valley is as bad as it is these days. I might look into annual change in Pablo ratings to just get some perspective. |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Oct 2, 2014 9:58:04 GMT -5
The average change in Pablo rating from year to year is 525 points. Even for teams between 4000 and 6000, it is 475.
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