bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 29, 2014 20:15:07 GMT -5
This weeks edition. Pretty darn hard to do any kind of projection for the PAC 12. Included projected conference record along with overall record.
1. Texas (24-1, 15-1)
2. Stanford (28-2, 18-2)
3. Florida State (27-3, 15-3)
4. Washington (28-3, 17-3)
5. Wisconsin (27-3, 18-2)
6. Oregon (24-6, 14-6)
7. Penn State (31-2, 19-1)
8. North Carolina (23-5, 14-4)
9. Colorado State (29-2, 17-1)
10. Nebraska (21-8, 15-5)
11. Kansas (22-8, 10-6)
12. Florida (22-6, 16-2)
13. Illinois (24-7, 16-4)
14. BYU (25-4, 16-2)
15. UCLA (21-10, 12-8)
16. Marquette (26-5, 16-2)
17. Kentucky (25-6, 14-4)
18. Hawaii (22-5, 14-2)
19. Loyola Marymount (26-4, 14-4)
20. Oklahoma (20-10, 10-6)
21. Arizona (22-10, 11-9)
22. USC (17-13, 10-10)
23. Texas A&M (20-9, 12-6)
24. Cal State Northridge (22-6, 13-3)
25. Iowa State (15-12, 7-9)
26. Minnesota (22-9, 12-8)
27. Kansas State (20-10, 7-9)
28. North Carolina State (22-8, 11-7)
29. Duke (20-9, 12-6)
30. SMU (26-6, 15-5)
31. Alabama (24-8, 12-6)
32. Arizona State (20-12, 10-10)
33. Central Florida (23-9, 16-4)
34. Lipscomb (20-7, 13-1)
35. Ohio (22-6, 14-2)
36. Northwestern (20-11, 10-10)
37. Long Beach State (23-7, 13-3)
38. San Diego (19-11, 12-6)
39. Louisville (19-11, 11-7)
40. Utah (17-14, 7-13)
41. Pittsburgh (24-7, 12-6)
42. Illinois State (22-7, 16-2)
43. Western Kentucky (26-6, 14-2)
44. Creighton (21-10, 14-4)
45. Baylor (16-15, 6-10)
46. Purdue (22-10, 12-8)
47. Tulsa (21-10, 13-7)
48. Oregon State (16-15, 6-14)
49. VCU (18-10, 11-3)
50. Rice (23-7, 13-3)
51. Appalachian State (24-6, 14-6)
52. Arkansas-Little Rock (22-8, 16-4)
53. American (25-5, 15-1)
54. West Virginia (18-12, 7-9)
55. Colorado (15-17, 7-13)
56. Xavier (20-11, 13-5)
57. Mississippi (23-9, 9-9)
58. Michigan State (17-14, 10-10)
59. New Mexico (20-11, 12-6)
60. Wichita State (20-8, 14-4)
61. Missouri (20-13, 10-8)
62. George Washington (20-8, 11-3)
63. Michigan (13-17, 8-12)
64. Harvard (18-5, 11-3)
65. Pacific (21-10, 10-8)
66. Yale (17-7, 12-2)
67. Butler (22-8, 14-4)
68. Miami (FL) (16-13, 9-9)
69. Louisiana-Lafayette (24-8, 13-7)
70. Ohio State (16-16, 7-13)
71. Virginia Tech (15-16, 8-10)
72. UNC Wilmington (21-9, 11-5)
73. Santa Clara (19-12, 9-9)
74. Texas-Arlington (24-8, 14-6)
75. UNLV (24-9, 12-6)
76. TCU (17-15, 5-11)
77. LSU (14-13, 9-9)
78. Northern Iowa (20-10, 14-4)
79. Coastal Carolina (21-7, 11-3)
80. Missouri State (20-10, 13-5)
81. Clemson (20-12, 8-10)
82. Virginia (16-15, 9-9)
83. Wyoming (22-9, 11-7)
84. Northern Arizona (23-4, 14-2)
85. Valparaiso (26-5, 11-3)
86. Denver (24-7, 12-4)
87. New Mexico State (20-7, 13-1)
88. Eastern Michigan (20-10, 11-5)
89. Saint Louis (22-7, 11-3)
90. Dayton (24-8, 11-3)
91. Texas Tech (17-11, 5-11)
92. Northern Kentucky (20-8, 10-4)
93. Georgia (17-14, 8-10)
94. South Carolina (18-13, 7-11)
95. Houston (18-13, 10-9)
96. Towson (25-6, 11-5)
97. California (12-18, 4-16)
98. Washington State (13-19, 4-16)
99. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (16-12, 11-3)
100. Auburn (15-16, 7-11)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2014 20:19:50 GMT -5
RPI ranking is critical for at large invitations to the Big Dance, but is not determinative of who gets the top seeds. But no way the top B1G team will not get one of the top seeds, unless the most unlikely occurs and PSU and WI both fall apart.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Sept 29, 2014 20:50:49 GMT -5
Pacific seems low, but then the WCC is bound to be difficult
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Post by lionsfan on Sept 29, 2014 21:01:22 GMT -5
Yay! Stanford and Penn State in the same region again!
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Post by baywatcher on Sept 29, 2014 21:19:45 GMT -5
RPI does not equate to seedlings. If Penn State loses only one more match they will not be seeded behind a 6 loss Oregon team, RPI be damned.
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Post by lionsfan on Sept 29, 2014 21:31:43 GMT -5
Penn State (31-2, 19-1). Which team in conference play beats Penn State? Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue... |
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,381
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 29, 2014 22:33:21 GMT -5
RPI does not equate to seedlings. If Penn State loses only one more match they will not be seeded behind a 6 loss Oregon team, RPI be damned. Agreed. I wish I still had the 'final' RPI before the seeds last year. I think Washington finished 5th - behind Missouri and Florida and was given the 3rd seed. Marquette was something like #10 and Creighton I believe finished #16 and did not get a seed. Wisconsin and Illinois received seeds better than their RPI.
In 2012, Louisville was something like #6 or 7 in RPI, but was I believe something like a #11 seed - while UCLA with a worse RPI was a top 8 seed.
As much as the committee relies on RPI - they don't really follow it as much as we think. Generally, the Pac 12 and the Big 10 will get the benefit of the doubt. And probably for good reason. The most likely unseeded team to make the final 16 is coming from either the PAC 12 or Big 10.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 29, 2014 22:46:01 GMT -5
RPI does not equate to seedlings. If Penn State loses only one more match they will not be seeded behind a 6 loss Oregon team, RPI be damned. Agreed. I wish I still had the 'final' RPI before the seeds last year. I think Washington finished 5th - behind Missouri and Florida and was given the 3rd seed. Marquette was something like #10 and Creighton I believe finished #16 and did not get a seed. Wisconsin and Illinois received seeds better than their RPI.
In 2012, Louisville was something like #6 or 7 in RPI, but was I believe something like a #11 seed - while UCLA with a worse RPI was a top 8 seed.
As much as the committee relies on RPI - they don't really follow it as much as we think. Generally, the Pac 12 and the Big 10 will get the benefit of the doubt. And probably for good reason. The most likely unseeded team to make the final 16 is coming from either the PAC 12 or Big 10.
Washington was #3 RPI IIRC heading into the tournament |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 30, 2014 8:35:55 GMT -5
RPI does not equate to seedlings. If Penn State loses only one more match they will not be seeded behind a 6 loss Oregon team, RPI be damned. Agreed. I wish I still had the 'final' RPI before the seeds last year. I think Washington finished 5th - behind Missouri and Florida and was given the 3rd seed. Marquette was something like #10 and Creighton I believe finished #16 and did not get a seed. Wisconsin and Illinois received seeds better than their RPI.
In 2012, Louisville was something like #6 or 7 in RPI, but was I believe something like a #11 seed - while UCLA with a worse RPI was a top 8 seed.
As much as the committee relies on RPI - they don't really follow it as much as we think. Generally, the Pac 12 and the Big 10 will get the benefit of the doubt. And probably for good reason. The most likely unseeded team to make the final 16 is coming from either the PAC 12 or Big 10.
It's not benefit of the doubt - the pattern in recent years is all about having an RPI in range AND having Top 25/Top 50 wins (and avoiding multiple bad losses). That was Marquette's big problem last year, it'll be close this year but the road win at Florida is pretty helpful for their case. BYU is on shakier ground. Probably need to sweep LMU to feel safe. But once again, the BCS schools behind them in RPI will be better positioned in that category. Colorado St. should be the safest mid-major to get a seed. Scheduled tough, got two Top 25 wins (BYU, Marquette), a solid ASU win and WVU and New Mexico as further potential Top 50 grist. |
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Post by tomclen on Sept 30, 2014 8:40:37 GMT -5
No team wants to be sent to CSU if they're hosting rounds 1/2.
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Post by Boof1224 on Sept 30, 2014 9:02:02 GMT -5
Penn State (31-2, 19-1). Which team in conference play beats Penn State? Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue... Well Illinois and Purdue will both be done in next 3 weeks only playing both once and Nebraska on road will be done also. If that's case we will have to wait until last match of year against Nebraska at rec hall. Not seeing them lose that game. I don't think Nebraska or Purdue match up right against psu. I think biggest obstacle is Illinois and then Minnesota again both of which are at rec hall. We will see. |
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Post by vbcoachsouth on Sept 30, 2014 9:03:02 GMT -5
clemson with 8 wins in conference, auburn with 7? ha
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,381
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 30, 2014 9:32:42 GMT -5
Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue... Well Illinois and Purdue will both be done in next 3 weeks only playing both once and Nebraska on road will be done also. If that's case we will have to wait until last match of year against Nebraska at rec hall. Not seeing them lose that game. I don't think Nebraska or Purdue match up right against psu. I think biggest obstacle is Illinois and then Minnesota again both of which are at rec hall. We will see. Last week I did a back of the envelope calcuation of the chances Texas goes undefeated based on my interpetation of the Pablo ratiings. I estimated their chances were south of 20%. The accumulation of several games where Texas has a 70-90% of winning makes it probable that someone will beat them. I didn't do this for PSU - but I have to think if Texas is under 20% vs. the rest of the Big 12 (plus Florida), then PSU is under 50% against the rest of the Big 10 (now minus Wisconsin). PSU goes down at home last year to Michigan State and lose to Nebraska in 2012. It is more likely that Penn State will lose again this year. At this point - I have no team winning all of their conference games. |
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,381
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 30, 2014 9:41:12 GMT -5
clemson with 8 wins in conference, auburn with 7? ha Just a projection - and most likely to be wrong.... I think Clemson is a tough one. They are 9th (out of 15) in the ACC accordinig to Pablo - but not really very far behind several in front of them. They are also 0-2 in conference. I think the 9th place team in the ACC will have a record around 8-12 - however, Clemson could finish better than 9th. Auburn is the 11th 'ranked' team out of 13 in the SEC (according to Pablo). 7-11 record for the 11th best team in the conference doesn't sound like too few wins. Again, Auburn may very well finish better than 11th in the conference - but somone has to finish 11th. |
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 30, 2014 10:38:18 GMT -5
RPI does not equate to seedlings. If Penn State loses only one more match they will not be seeded behind a 6 loss Oregon team, RPI be damned. The question isn't if a 2 loss PSU team would be seeded above a 6 loss Oregon team, the question is whether a 2 loss PSU team would be seeded above a 2 loss Stanford and Washington team. It's clear to me that unless the sky falls, Texas and FSU will be top seeds. The Big 12 and ACC isn't strong enough to give those teams enough losses to get out of top 4 seed range (though stranger things have happened). So then it comes Down to whether the PAC-12 gets a second seed or it goes to the Big 10. If both Washington and Stanford, or hell even Oregon, finish with 2 losses too (not saying they are, but if they do), I'm not sure PSU will have the case. All those teams would have higher RPI's and more matches (and presumably wins) over RPI top 25. In terms of seeds, however it may not be much of a difference, especially if we are just arguing 4 versus 5, considering they'd be in the same regional anyway. Come seasons end, the real winner is whomever will be the seed opposite FSU. While they played a tough preseason schedule, and escaped some potential losses, I'd have a hard time not seeing them as the weakest of the top seeds. |
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