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Post by FreeBall on Oct 20, 2014 8:08:03 GMT -5
I wonder if Purdue fan Bofa would be willing to do a prediction of the final standings using Pablo? I have no idea how hard/how much work that is. If I understand your question correctly, I believe the answer can be easily discerned from the final RPI prediction work bluepenguin is doing each week. He has already posted his "RPI Futures" thread for this week and it shows the following predicted final conference records for Big 10 teams: 1. Wisconsin 18-2 2. Penn State 17-3 3. Illinois 15-5 4. Purdue 14-6 5. Nebraska 13-7 6. Ohio State 12-8 7. Minnesota 11-9 8. Michigan St. 10-10 9. Northwestern 9-11 10. Michigan 9-11 He only lists the projected top 100 teams, so Iowa, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers are not shown. |
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Post by Wiswell on Oct 20, 2014 8:12:16 GMT -5
BTW...I really hate, hate the fact that we will not play PSU again this year. I'm praying that they meet again in the NCAAs. I think this team will always have an asterisk next to their name, no matter what they do, until they beat PSU. Not only that, if the Big Ten winner is someone other than Penn State, they too will have an asterick - "well the Big Ten and Penn State were down this year." But you are right, if the Big Ten Champion comes out from the team that has beat PSU, they will have more credibility. Illinois could be that team. I think they are through their uneven phase and will be solid from here on out. And the honest reality is that they would have had a tougher schedule to get there, and have already beaten Penn State and Nebraska. |
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Post by akbar on Oct 20, 2014 8:29:14 GMT -5
OSU is settling down to who I thought they would be and will end up in that 8 or 9th range. They could lose their next 4 matches in a row and realistically lose 7 more this year. Tough schedule ahead for them.
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Post by SportyBucky on Oct 20, 2014 8:41:13 GMT -5
BTW...I really hate, hate the fact that we will not play PSU again this year. I'm praying that they meet again in the NCAAs. I think this team will always have an asterisk next to their name, no matter what they do, until they beat PSU. Not only that, if the Big Ten winner is someone other than Penn State, they too will have an asterick - "well the Big Ten and Penn State were down this year." But you are right, if the Big Ten Champion comes out from the team that has beat PSU, they will have more credibility. Illinois could be that team. I think they are through their uneven phase and will be solid from here on out. And the honest reality is that they would have had a tougher schedule to get there, and have already beaten Penn State and Nebraska. Illinois looks anything but amazing to me. Yes, they beat NE and PSU, but the PSU of late hasn't been lights-out. They've been struggling on defense and can't terminate they way they're used to doing. Micha was pressing. It wasn't fun to watch (well, it kinda was). NE is error-prone and has significant chemistry issues...not to mention Mary can't set middle well to save her life. Illinois has improved serve receive and Griswell has played well but they've been really uneven. Against WI, they were horrible. They dropped a set against IA. I am not writing their ticket to a championship. I still like the consistency of WI and the talent of PSU to come out of the gauntlet the least scathed. |
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Post by MTC on Oct 20, 2014 9:05:38 GMT -5
My prediction that Badgers win the Big Ten is looking good as long as Carlini stays healthy. Illini are getting better play from their backup players now and are very hard to beat when they are on.
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Post by Phillytom on Oct 20, 2014 9:08:13 GMT -5
Have there ever been close to this many Big Ten teams with top tier talent? It's just amazing. Purdue, Ohio State, Ill, Wisconsin -- all capable of beating anybody. PSU and Nebraska are PSU and Nebraska. Minnesota and NW are really good but they are going to scuffle for wins because there are so many great teams. Even Iowa is capable of winning sets from Illinois -- Iowa is playing pretty good VB and is just a couple of players short.
Interestingly, I think PSU might be the team we know the least about right now. Haleigh Washington changes everything. It appears PSU is going to need her to compete at the top level, but adding her to the rotation changes a lot of other people's roles. Back row for PSU is very unsettled right now. They are really not themselves in serve receive, and floor D is just not anything like what it's going to be by late November.
This is the time when teams need to gather themselves up and find the energy to get better. The league schedule is so exhausting -- it becomes a test to see who can really concentrate, who can do the best work in the gym, who has has the ability to dig down deep and win the tough points.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 20, 2014 9:20:45 GMT -5
OSU is settling down to who I thought they would be and will end up in that 8 or 9th range. They could lose their next 4 matches in a row and realistically lose 7 more this year. Tough schedule ahead for them. Really not sure recent results track them settling down to 8th/9th. If anything, Northwestern is the team that's settling down closer to preseason expectations. |
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Post by rampageripster on Oct 20, 2014 9:27:41 GMT -5
OSU is settling down to who I thought they would be and will end up in that 8 or 9th range. They could lose their next 4 matches in a row and realistically lose 7 more this year. Tough schedule ahead for them. ? say what now? The Buckeyes lost a 5 setter AT Purdue and now you are confident they will slide to 8th or 9th? They went 5-3 over a BRUTAL opening stretch. With two of those losses in 5 on the road (one without Sandbothe). Have only been swept away Wisconsin. I while the next 4 arent a cakewalk, but 3 of the 4 are home and they should be favored at home over the Michigan schools (fat load of good that's done us in the past) So I have no idea what sparked this confidence in a downward trend as the Buckeyes are probably one of the hottest teams and hardest outs in the conference... Edit: I am not saying this is impossible. The Buckeyes could come crashing down with a 4 game losing streak. I'm just saying that the wording you used pointed towards nonexistent evidence |
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Post by rampageripster on Oct 20, 2014 9:28:37 GMT -5
OSU is settling down to who I thought they would be and will end up in that 8 or 9th range. They could lose their next 4 matches in a row and realistically lose 7 more this year. Tough schedule ahead for them. Really not sure recent results track them settling down to 8th/9th. If anything, Northwestern is the team that's settling down closer to preseason expectations. This friend speaks my mind |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 20, 2014 10:00:01 GMT -5
I wonder if Purdue fan Bofa would be willing to do a prediction of the final standings using Pablo? I have no idea how hard/how much work that is. If I understand your question correctly, I believe the answer can be easily discerned from the final RPI prediction work bluepenguin is doing each week. He has already posted his "RPI Futures" thread for this week and it shows the following predicted final conference records for Big 10 teams: 1. Wisconsin 18-2 2. Penn State 17-3 3. Illinois 15-5 4. Purdue 14-6 5. Nebraska 13-7 6. Ohio State 12-8 7. Minnesota 11-9 8. Michigan St. 10-10 9. Northwestern 9-11 10. Michigan 9-11 He only lists the projected top 100 teams, so Iowa, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers are not shown. This is not accurate. I think it may be close to what Pablo would project. Not sure how easy it would be to do a real projection from Pablo, but it wouldn't be all that easy for me to do. Another side note - I have started to deviate slightly from Pablo in doing conference projections. I am now looking at what teams have done in conference thus far by using % of points won (along with Pablo). The problem with looking more closely at only Conference games is the small sample size, however, I think this is offset by accounting for teams that may be different (better) in October then in September. Also, we are able to compare among common opponents. |
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Post by akbar on Oct 20, 2014 10:22:01 GMT -5
Really not sure recent results track them settling down to 8th/9th. If anything, Northwestern is the team that's settling down closer to preseason expectations. This friend speaks my mind Being PSU's travel partner can be advantageous. Clearly Purdue and Nebraska were a little weathered from the nights before. The Nebraska and Illinois wins were gritty indeed and rare combacks in sports. OSU also will play two Michigan teams that are on a 3 and 4 match winning streaks. All 3-0 wins meaning they are playing more efficiently too than before. Yes I am aware who some of these wins are against but momentum is a powerful thing and these squads are probably feeling much better about themselves then where they were at the beginning of the year. Outside of Sandbothe, OSU lacks top tier B1G players and that will become a reality soon enough. No doubt they have played very hard and that has resulted in some wins but as said I'm not conVince they will end up any higher than 8th. It's just an opinion. Hopefully for OSU's sake and you as supporters I'm flat out wrong. |
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Post by rainbowbadger on Oct 20, 2014 10:33:21 GMT -5
I have trouble seeing Purdue losing 5 more times. They played some quality ball against PSU. But that's just me.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 20, 2014 11:16:11 GMT -5
Purdue has 10 games left where they are in some jeopardy of losing. Below is the estimated win % for each of those 10 games based on my interpetation of Pablo.
at Northwestern (51.1%)
at Illinois (24.6%)
Wisconsin (21.9%)
Minnesota (70.8%)
at Nebraska (28.7%)
at Iowa (80.0%)
Northwestern (71.1%)
at Minnesota (50.6%)
at Michigan State (50.8%)
at Wisconsin (13.3%)
Purdue is favored in 6 of the 10 matches, but in 3 of those 6 they are favored to win by less than 52%. They have 3 matches that will be difficult to win Wisconsin 2X and at Illinois.
Notice, Purdue has a better chance of losing at Iowa then beating Wisconsin in Wisconsin.
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Post by 2muchbs on Oct 20, 2014 11:17:50 GMT -5
Not only that, if the Big Ten winner is someone other than Penn State, they too will have an asterick - "well the Big Ten and Penn State were down this year." But you are right, if the Big Ten Champion comes out from the team that has beat PSU, they will have more credibility. Illinois could be that team. I think they are through their uneven phase and will be solid from here on out. And the honest reality is that they would have had a tougher schedule to get there, and have already beaten Penn State and Nebraska. Illinois looks anything but amazing to me. Yes, they beat NE and PSU, but the PSU of late hasn't been lights-out. They've been struggling on defense and can't terminate they way they're used to doing. Micha was pressing. It wasn't fun to watch (well, it kinda was). NE is error-prone and has significant chemistry issues...not to mention Mary can't set middle well to save her life. Illinois has improved serve receive and Griswell has played well but they've been really uneven. Against WI, they were horrible. They dropped a set against IA. I am not writing their ticket to a championship. I still like the consistency of WI and the talent of PSU to come out of the gauntlet the least scathed. Illinois was not horrible against Wisconsin, they were as you say "inconsistent" .They were still running the 6-2 at that point and the first half of that system didn't show up that game,which has been their issue for the last 3 years. I watched the Nebraska game and if the setter doesn't quit trying to rely on McMahon to carry the team we will continue to be inconsistent, shes in the front row with Birks and Stadick and setters choice is McMahon 99% of the time . I read from "Hammer" when someone else questioned that in the Nebraska game that Hambly told the setter to keep feeding her, I just don't know if I believe that. As far as Nebraska, the talent is there and I think they suffer from the same thing Illinois does.A "leader" that isn't a team player and coaches who feed the ego. I hate to admit this but I agree with notpriddy in his assessment regarding Wisconsin, they have the best "2nd" setter on the court at all times so if their hitters can come through they will do well. PSU is always a team to watch and from what I see Purdue and Ohio are right there too. If any of these teams get the title is wont be because the big is down it will be because the talent is equally disbursed. |
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Post by rampageripster on Oct 20, 2014 11:18:11 GMT -5
This friend speaks my mind Being PSU's travel partner can be advantageous. Clearly Purdue and Nebraska were a little weathered from the nights before. The Nebraska and Illinois wins were gritty indeed and rare combacks in sports. OSU also will play two Michigan teams that are on a 3 and 4 match winning streaks. All 3-0 wins meaning they are playing more efficiently too than before. Yes I am aware who some of these wins are against but momentum is a powerful thing and these squads are probably feeling much better about themselves then where they were at the beginning of the year. Outside of Sandbothe, OSU lacks top tier B1G players and that will become a reality soon enough. No doubt they have played very hard and that has resulted in some wins but as said I'm not conVince they will end up any higher than 8th. It's just an opinion. Hopefully for OSU's sake and you as supporters I'm flat out wrong. Dude, there is so much wrong here I don't know where to start.... 1) I'm sick of this PSU travel partner BULLS**T. When the Buckeyes get a big win it's "PSU wore them down" EVERY SINGLE TIME. Maybe it's cause the Buckeyes are a good volleyball team? Possibly? One last note here, it's not as advantageous as you think... We are the only ones that will play PSU twice every season for forever.. That includes back to back matches. 2) You talk about the Michgan teams' "momentum" beating inferior opponents and fail to see that the Buckeyes have won 5 of 6, and were a couple points in a 5th set from 6 straight. And those are against quality opponents, 4 ranked teams, 2 on the road. Everything you have in that paragraph could be said about the Buckeyes, and they are doing it against the top 3rd of the conference. 3) You do realize that the Buckeyes went on this run without Sandbothe being even kind of healthy. If she was 100% all season this team is probably looking at a 6-2 start with their only losses at Wisc and Purdue (if not better... though I doubt it). Campbell and Sekinger have really emerged and Sherwin is turning in a fantastic season at setter so far. I think you haven't seen enough to change your prediction cause you aren't watching. I get it., it's an opinion and you mean no ill by it. But it is an opinion based on nonexistent evidence and is very poorly constructed. You might be right, but nothing is here to indicate that you are. |
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