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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 19, 2014 20:07:32 GMT -5
Standings:
(4) Stanford 10-0
(2) Washington 10-0
(13) Arizona 6-4
(9) Oregon 6-4
(14) UCLA 6-4
(21) ASU 5-5
(22) Colorado 5-5
(17) USC 5-5
(26) OSU 4-6
(37) Utah 2-8
(54) WSU 1-9
(61) Cal 0-10
(Oct 20 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites [Red means current pablo favors opponent in upcoming match.]
Stanford: (5-0) [6 remaining: @Ore, ASU, AZ, @USC, @UCLA, @UW]
Washington: (5-0) [6 remaining: @USC, @UCLA, Ore, AZ, ASU, Stan]
Arizona: (2-3) [5 remaining: @Stan, Ore, @UW, USC, @ASU]
ASU: (2-3) [5 remaining: @Stan, Ore, @UW, UCLA, AZ]
UCLA: (2-3) [5 remaining: UW, Stan, @Ore, @ASU, USC]
Oregon: (2-4) [6 remaining: Stan, @UW, @AZ, @ASU, UCLA, USC]
USC: (0-5) [5 remaining: UW, Stan, @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
Arizona (1): @Colorado
ASU (2): @Utah, @OSU
UCLA (1): Colorado
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Wed:
7:30pm AZ@Ore, USC@Cal
Fri:
4pm ASU@Ore
6pm UCLA@Stan
7pm Col@WSU
8pm Utah@UW, AZ@OSU
Sat:
7pm ASU@OSU
Sun:
11am Utah@WSU
1pm Col@UW
3pm UCLA@Cal
5pm USC@Stan
Bold is pablo favorite.
==================
Week 6 schedule:
Washington@LA, Mountains@Arizona, BayArea@Oregon
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Post by GoUCLA on Oct 19, 2014 20:11:46 GMT -5
Here's to hoping UCLA is the first team to hand Stanford a loss this season!  |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 19, 2014 20:16:23 GMT -5
Here's to hoping UCLA is the first team to hand Stanford a loss this season! :) I'd be OK with that. |
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Post by gobruins on Oct 20, 2014 5:03:01 GMT -5
What is your cutoff for "favorites"? It seems to me the only "favorites" in this conference are Stanford and Washington. Realistically, no other school has a chance to win the conference.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 20, 2014 8:04:27 GMT -5
I wonder if Colorado merits inclusion into the tracked group at this point, seems like unless you have a Top 2 favorites, the other 6 are pretty tightly packed. I guess it could all change a week from now.
Oregon-Arizona match will be an interesting one on Wednesday. 5-set battle last year that was basically a 1-on-1 match between Brenner and Kingdon. Both have some reinforcements this year. Arizona has the sucky schedule this week (play UW Sunday, Monday off, only 1 practice before Travel Tuesday), so that might play a factor.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 20, 2014 10:09:01 GMT -5
What is your cutoff for "favorites"? It seems to me the only "favorites" in this conference are Stanford and Washington. Realistically, no other school has a chance to win the conference. That wasn't obvious at the start of the year. Anyway, it's really more about tracking the teams that have a realistic chance at beating the likes of Stanford or Washington. |
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Post by jgrout on Oct 20, 2014 11:20:08 GMT -5
Every team in the Pac-12 on a really great night could beat Stanford or Washington on a really bad night. That being said, some teams are more likely to do it, as I think Colorado showed against Stanford in Boulder, so I agree with mikegarrison about trying to identify which of them are more likely to be trouble. Matchups matter too, but if the teams are too far apart, unfavorable matchups (e.g., a great serving team against a team prone to bouts of bad passing) are easier to overcome for the team that is better overall (e.g., the great serving team might get the better team into a few rotations from hell and rip off one set, but rip off three?).
At Illinois, Coach Hardin said it was harder for an underdog WVB team to win a match than it was for underdogs in any comparable sport, and pointed at the set structure as the chief culprit. A team can be blown off the court in the first two sets, come out with a new approach and win the match just by being better in those last three sets... but a WBB team that is down 15 or 20 points at halftime might never be able to make up the difference no matter how they play, let alone by being just a bit better throughout the second half.
I think this is the reason there are so many Pac-12 champions and second-place teams with no, one or at most two losses... upsets are so much harder in WVB than in WBB, etc.
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Post by baywatcher on Oct 20, 2014 12:01:35 GMT -5
Cal and WSU have little chance v. Stanford/UW; if they get ahead they will mentally lose it. Maybe a big comeback like WSU over SC last year.
For the others, having a good night, or morning, winning the close sets and getting some momentum could carry them to a win. Juust unsure which one. I would think upsets would be on the road; so Stanford still has to go to the Oregons, and to LA. Not sure where Washingtonn has to travel.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 20, 2014 12:19:36 GMT -5
Cal and WSU have little chance v. Stanford/UW; if they get ahead they will mentally lose it. Maybe a big comeback like WSU over SC last year. For the others, having a good night, or morning, winning the close sets and getting some momentum could carry them to a win. Juust unsure which one. I would think upsets would be on the road; so Stanford still has to go to the Oregons, and to LA. Not sure where Washingtonn has to travel. In the second half of the season, Washington has to travel to LA, the mountains, and Pullman. They already have been to Oregon, Arizona, and Berkeley. As you note, Stanford has to travel to LA, Oregon, Berkeley, and Seattle in the second half. They have already been to Arizona and the mountains. WSU and Cal came to Maples in the first week. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 20, 2014 12:22:15 GMT -5
Wait, so Wazzu has 8 of their last 12 at home? Perfect set up for tons of weirdness on the Palouse to close out the season.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 20, 2014 12:28:30 GMT -5
Wait, so Wazzu has 8 of their last 12 at home? Perfect set up for tons of weirdness on the Palouse to close out the season. I keep saying, the Cougs have had a tough schedule so far. It's been loaded up with the toughest of the PAC opponents, and mostly on the road. It's not that they would likely have had a winning record regardless, but there is a reasonable chance that if they had been able to play Utah or Cal or even Colorado they may have gotten a win already. (Or maybe not.) They lost in 5 to USC at home and ASU in Tempe. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 20, 2014 14:00:55 GMT -5
Updated for Oct 20 pablo
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 20, 2014 14:50:01 GMT -5
I went through the upcoming matches and tried to figure out who was favored by pablo. (This was enough of a pain that I will automate doing this for future weeks, if people think it's interesting.)
If pablo is correct and nothing changes, by the end of the season we should see the final records as something like this:
Washington/Stanford
Oregon
Arizona/UCLA
Colorado/USC/ASU/OSU
Utah
WSU/Cal
USC appears to be improving right now, but the schedule clearly shows they need to improve A LOT, because their upcoming schedule is not friendly.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 21, 2014 2:46:36 GMT -5
FYI, I may not be able to update this on Wed. There was a death in the family (one of my aunts), and I will be in Spokane that day for a memorial service.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 22, 2014 22:58:35 GMT -5
I got back from Spokane.
Oregon swept Arizona.
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