RPI Futures 10-19

[bluepenquin]

1. Texas (25-0, 16-0)
2. Stanford (28-2, 18-2)
3. Florida State (28-2, 16-2)
4. Washington (29-2, 18-2)
5. Wisconsin (27-3, 18-2)
6. North Carolina (25-3, 16-2)
7. Oregon (24-6, 14-6)
8. Florida (23-5, 17-1)
9. Colorado State (29-2, 17-1)
10. Penn State (29-4, 17-3)
11. Kentucky (26-5, 15-3)
12. Arizona (23-9, 12-8)
13. BYU (25-4, 16-2)
14. Illinois (23-8, 15-5)
15. Nebraska (19-10, 13-7)
16. Kansas (20-10, 8-8)
17. UCLA (20-11, 11-9)
18. UCF (26-6, 19-1)
19. Kansas State (22-8, 9-7)
20. Marquette (24-7, 14-4)
21. Duke (22-7, 14-4)
22. Oklahoma (19-11, 9-7)
23. Hawaii (21-6, 13-3)
24. Texas A&M (20-9, 12-6)
25. USC (16-14, 9-11)
26. Miami-FL (20-9, 13-5)
27. Iowa State (15-12, 7-9)
28. Cal State Northridge (21-7, 12-4)
29. Ohio State (21-11, 12-8)
30. Loyola Marymount (24-6, 12-6)
31. Arizona State (20-12, 10-10)
32. Ohio (23-5, 15-1)
33. Arkansas-Little Rock (25-5, 19-1)
34. Western Kentucky (27-5, 15-1)
35. Minnesota (21-10, 11-9)
36. Colorado (18-14, 10-10)
37. SMU (25-7, 14-6)
38. Illinois State (23-6, 17-1)
39. Lipscomb (20-7, 13-1)
40. Long Beach State (24-6, 14-2)
41. Alabama (24-10, 12-8)
42. Purdue (24-8, 14-6)
43. Oregon State (18-13, 8-12)
44. Pittsburgh (25-6, 13-5)
45. San Diego (19-11, 12-6)
46. LSU (17-10, 12-6)
47. Creighton (22-9, 15-3)
48. Louisville (19-11, 11-7)
49. Ole Miss (24-8, 10-8)
50. Northwestern (19-12, 9-11)
51. Texas-Arlington (25-7, 15-5)
52. Michigan (14-16, 9-11)
53. Wyoming (24-7, 13-5)
54. Michigan State (17-14, 10-10)
55. Utah (16-15, 6-14)
56. Xavier (19-11, 12-6)
57. Baylor (15-16, 5-11)
58. American (25-5, 15-1)
59. Santa Clara (20-11, 10-8)
60. Memphis (25-9, 15-5)
61. Appalachian State (23-7, 13-7)
62. Pacific (22-9, 11-7)
63. Seton Hall (26-7, 15-3)
64. Arkansas (17-14, 11-7)
65. Texas Tech (19-9, 7-9)
66. Tulsa (19-12, 11-9)
67. Missouri State (21-9, 14-4)
68. UNLV (24-9, 12-6)
69. Clemson (21-11, 9-9)
70. West Virginia (16-14, 6-10)
71. Yale (17-7, 12-2)
72. Rice (23-7, 13-3)
73. Gonzaga (18-11, 10-8)
74. Texas-San Antonio (19-8, 15-1)
75. VCU (16-12, 9-5)
76. Temple (22-10, 13-7)
77. Denver (25-6, 13-3)
78. Virginia (16-15, 9-9)
79. George Washington (19-9, 10-4)
80. UMKC (24-5, 12-2)
81. Furman (20-7, 13-3)
82. Dayton (25-7, 12-2)
83. Central Arkansas (20-9, 15-1)
84. Towson (26-5, 12-4)
85. New Mexico (18-13, 10-8)
86. South Dakota (19-10, 13-3)
87. Northern Iowa (20-10, 14-4)
88. Arkansas State (18-11, 13-7)
89. UNC Wilmington (21-9, 11-5)
90. Butler (20-10, 12-6)
91. Northern Arizona (22-5, 13-3)
92. Virginia Tech (14-17, 7-11)
93. Coastal Carolina (21-7, 11-3)
94. NC State (16-14, 5-13)
95. San Francisco (16-14, 9-9)
96. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (16-12, 10-4)
97. Wichita State (18-10, 12-6)
98. LIU Brooklyn (22-7, 13-1)
99. Hofstra (26-5, 13-3)
100. TCU (17-15, 5-11)

[ay2013]

Oct 19, 2014 20:47:33 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

1. Texas (25-0, 16-0)
2. Stanford (28-2, 18-2)
3. Florida State (28-2, 16-2)
4. Washington (29-2, 18-2)
5. Wisconsin (27-3, 18-2)
6. North Carolina (25-3, 16-2)
7. Oregon (24-6, 14-6)
8. Florida (23-5, 17-1)
9. Colorado State (29-2, 17-1)
10. Penn State (29-4, 17-3)
11. Kentucky (26-5, 15-3)
12. Arizona (23-9, 12-8)
13. BYU (25-4, 16-2)
14. Illinois (23-8, 15-5)
15. Nebraska (19-10, 13-7)
16. Kansas (20-10, 8-8)
17. UCLA (20-11, 11-9)
18. UCF (26-6, 19-1)
19. Kansas State (22-8, 9-7)
20. Marquette (24-7, 14-4)
21. Duke (22-7, 14-4)
22. Oklahoma (19-11, 9-7)
23. Hawaii (21-6, 13-3)
24. Texas A&M (20-9, 12-6)
25. USC (16-14, 9-11)
26. Miami-FL (20-9, 13-5)
27. Iowa State (15-12, 7-9)
28. Cal State Northridge (21-7, 12-4)
29. Ohio State (21-11, 12-8)
30. Loyola Marymount (24-6, 12-6)
31. Arizona State (20-12, 10-10)
32. Ohio (23-5, 15-1)
33. Arkansas-Little Rock (25-5, 19-1)
34. Western Kentucky (27-5, 15-1)
35. Minnesota (21-10, 11-9)
36. Colorado (18-14, 10-10)
37. SMU (25-7, 14-6)
38. Illinois State (23-6, 17-1)
39. Lipscomb (20-7, 13-1)
40. Long Beach State (24-6, 14-2)
41. Alabama (24-10, 12-8)
42. Purdue (24-8, 14-6)
43. Oregon State (18-13, 8-12)
44. Pittsburgh (25-6, 13-5)
45. San Diego (19-11, 12-6)
46. LSU (17-10, 12-6)
47. Creighton (22-9, 15-3)
48. Louisville (19-11, 11-7)
49. Ole Miss (24-8, 10-8)
50. Northwestern (19-12, 9-11)
51. Texas-Arlington (25-7, 15-5)
52. Michigan (14-16, 9-11)
53. Wyoming (24-7, 13-5)
54. Michigan State (17-14, 10-10)
55. Utah (16-15, 6-14)
56. Xavier (19-11, 12-6)
57. Baylor (15-16, 5-11)
58. American (25-5, 15-1)
59. Santa Clara (20-11, 10-8)
60. Memphis (25-9, 15-5)
61. Appalachian State (23-7, 13-7)
62. Pacific (22-9, 11-7)
63. Seton Hall (26-7, 15-3)
64. Arkansas (17-14, 11-7)
65. Texas Tech (19-9, 7-9)
66. Tulsa (19-12, 11-9)
67. Missouri State (21-9, 14-4)
68. UNLV (24-9, 12-6)
69. Clemson (21-11, 9-9)
70. West Virginia (16-14, 6-10)
71. Yale (17-7, 12-2)
72. Rice (23-7, 13-3)
73. Gonzaga (18-11, 10-8)
74. Texas-San Antonio (19-8, 15-1)
75. VCU (16-12, 9-5)
76. Temple (22-10, 13-7)
77. Denver (25-6, 13-3)
78. Virginia (16-15, 9-9)
79. George Washington (19-9, 10-4)
80. UMKC (24-5, 12-2)
81. Furman (20-7, 13-3)
82. Dayton (25-7, 12-2)
83. Central Arkansas (20-9, 15-1)
84. Towson (26-5, 12-4)
85. New Mexico (18-13, 10-8)
86. South Dakota (19-10, 13-3)
87. Northern Iowa (20-10, 14-4)
88. Arkansas State (18-11, 13-7)
89. UNC Wilmington (21-9, 11-5)
90. Butler (20-10, 12-6)
91. Northern Arizona (22-5, 13-3)
92. Virginia Tech (14-17, 7-11)
93. Coastal Carolina (21-7, 11-3)
94. NC State (16-14, 5-13)
95. San Francisco (16-14, 9-9)
96. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (16-12, 10-4)
97. Wichita State (18-10, 12-6)
98. LIU Brooklyn (22-7, 13-1)
99. Hofstra (26-5, 13-3)
100. TCU (17-15, 5-11)

I'm curious to which teams you are attributing 3 losses between Stanford and Washington to. Obviously one will lose since they play each other, but which teams' win-loss record reflects wins (rather than losses) against Stanford and Washington?

I also think that while Kansas may end up with a high RPI (mainly because the Big 12 is artificially inflating all the conference teams' RPR (as is the case with how few conference matches there are), I don' see Kansas getting seed unless they get at least one win against an RPI top 25 team...currently they don't have one.

[herdmentality]

Thanks for all the work blue

[ay2013]

If I was making a bracket off this, I'd have:

1 Texas
8 Penn State
9 Florida
16 UCLA

2 Stanford
7 Oregon
10 Colorado State
15 BYU

3 Washington
6 North Carolina
11 Nebraska
14 Kentucky

4 Florida State
5 Wisconsin
12 Illinois
13 Arizona

[redbeard2008]

Top-25 Future-RPI Wins :

1. Texas (5/3): Florida (8), Arizona (12), Nebraska (15), Kansas (16), Kansas State (19). Remaining (2): Florida (8), Kansas (16), Kansas State (19). Max. total: 6

2. Stanford (6/4)): Oregon (7), Penn State (10), Arizona (12), Illinois (14), Nebraska (15), Duke (21). Remaining (7): Washington (4), Oregon (7), Arizona (12), UCLA 2 (17), USC 2 (25). Max. total: 13

3. Florida State (5/4): North Carolina (6), Florida (8), Nebraska (15), Marquette (20), Texas A&M (24). Remaining (2): North Carolina (6), Duke (21). Max. total: 7

4. Washington (6/2): Wisconsin (5), Oregon (7), Arizona (12), BYU (13), UCLA (17), USC (25). Remaining (5): Stanford (2), Oregon (7), Arizona (12), UCLA (17), USC (25). Max. total: 11

5. Wisconsin (3/2): CSU (9), Illinois (14), USC (25). Remaining (2): Illinois (14), Nebraska (15). Max. total: 5

6. North Carolina (2/1): Kentucky (11), Duke (21). Remaining (1): Florida St (3). Max. total: 3

7. Oregon (2/1): Hawaii (23), USC (25). Remaining (6): Stanford (2), Washington (4), Arizona 2 (12), UCLA (17), USC (25). Max. total: 7.

8. Florida (2/2): Texas A&M (24), USC (25). Remaining (2): Texas (1), Kentucky (11). Max. total: 5

My guesses:

* North Carolina and Oregon will not get a top-8 seed. I'd put Penn State #7 and CSU #8.

* If they win the rest of their matches, whoever wins the Stanford @ Washington match will be the #1 seed.

[ay2013]

Oct 20, 2014 1:14:05 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Top-25 Future-RPI Wins :

1. Texas (4/3): Florida (8), Arizona (12), Nebraska (15), Kansas (16), Kansas State (19). Remaining (2): Florida (8), Kansas (16), Kansas State (19). Max. total: 6

2. Stanford (6/4)): Oregon (7), Penn State (10), Arizona (12), Illinois (14), Nebraska (15), Duke (21). Remaining (7): Washington (4), Oregon (7), Arizona (12), UCLA 2 (17), USC 2 (25). Max. total: 13

3. Florida State (5/4): North Carolina (6), Florida (8), Nebraska (15), Marquette (20), Texas A&M (24). Remaining (2): North Carolina (6), Duke (21). Max. total: 7

4. Washington (6/2): Wisconsin (5), Oregon (7), Arizona (12), BYU (13), UCLA (17), USC (25). Remaining (5): Stanford (2), Oregon (7), Arizona (12), UCLA (17), USC (25). Max. total: 11

5. Wisconsin (3/2): CSU (9), Illinois (14), USC (25). Remaining (2): Illinois (14), Nebraska (15). Max. total: 5

6. North Carolina (2/1): Kentucky (11), Duke (21). Remaining (1): Florida St (3). Max. total: 3

7. Oregon (1/0): USC (25). Remaining (6): Stanford (2), Washington (4), Arizona 2 (12), UCLA (17), USC (25). Max. total: 7.

8. Florida (3/3): Marquette (20), Texas A&M (24), USC (25). Remaining (2): Texas (1), Kentucky (11). Max. total: 5

My guesses:

* North Carolina and Oregon will not get a top-8 seed. I'd put Penn State #7 and CSU #8.

* If they win the rest of their matches, whoever wins the Stanford @ Washington match will be the #1 seed.

How do you reconcile North Carolina not being in the top 8 but CSU is, based on this projection? What is Colorado State doing that North Carolina isn't?

[redbeard2008]

Oct 20, 2014 1:38:34 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

My guesses:

* North Carolina and Oregon will not get a top-8 seed. I'd put Penn State #7 and CSU #8.

* If they win the rest of their matches, whoever wins the Stanford @ Washington match will be the #1 seed.

How do you reconcile North Carolina not being in the top 8 but CSU is, based on this projection? What is Colorado State doing that North Carolina isn't?[/quote]

CSU (2/2): BYU (13), Marquette (20). Remaining (0).

I believe the committee only considers out-of-conference top-25 wins for seeding purposes, which would leave North Carolina with only one, unless they beat Florida State. (Oregon would have none.) CSU would have two. CSU will also likely win the rest of their matches for a 30-1 record (with their only loss to Wisconsin), vs. North Carolina with two likely losses (both to Florida State).

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 20, 2014 2:19:08 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Oct 20, 2014 1:38:34 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

My guesses:

* North Carolina and Oregon will not get a top-8 seed. I'd put Penn State #7 and CSU #8.

* If they win the rest of their matches, whoever wins the Stanford @ Washington match will be the #1 seed.

How do you reconcile North Carolina not being in the top 8 but CSU is, based on this projection? What is Colorado State doing that North Carolina isn't?

CSU (2/2): BYU (13), Marquette (20). Remaining (0).

I believe the committee only considers out-of-conference top-25 wins for seeding purposes, which would leave North Carolina with only one, unless they beat Florida State. (Oregon would have none.) CSU would have two. CSU will also likely win the rest of their matches for a 30-1 record (with their only loss to Wisconsin), vs. North Carolina with two likely losses (both to Florida State).


[/quote]
Umm you seem to be "forgetting" that Oregon beat Hawaii. And they don't use only out-of-conference - what gave you that impression?

[mclvbdad]

41. Alabama (24-10, 12-8)

How does Alabama get 20 conference matches when the SEC only plays 18?

[ay2013]

Oct 20, 2014 2:19:08 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Oct 20, 2014 1:38:34 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

My guesses:

* North Carolina and Oregon will not get a top-8 seed. I'd put Penn State #7 and CSU #8.

* If they win the rest of their matches, whoever wins the Stanford @ Washington match will be the #1 seed.

How do you reconcile North Carolina not being in the top 8 but CSU is, based on this projection? What is Colorado State doing that North Carolina isn't?

CSU (2/2): BYU (13), Marquette (20). Remaining (0).

I believe the committee only considers out-of-conference top-25 wins for seeding purposes, which would leave North Carolina with only one, unless they beat Florida State. (Oregon would have none.) CSU would have two. CSU will also likely win the rest of their matches for a 30-1 record (with their only loss to Wisconsin), vs. North Carolina with two likely losses (both to Florida State).


[/quote]

You have been misinformed. If conference wins against top 25 were excluded, it would greatly diminish the impact of relative conference strength, which, as we know, doesn't happen.Last year Washington was the 3 seed with only one non conference win against rpi top 25, Illinois, and they barely had a .500 record. Yeah, explain how uw gets a top seed if what they did in conference didn't matter?

[bluepenquin]

Oct 20, 2014 8:39:08 GMT -5 mclvbdad said:

41. Alabama (24-10, 12-8)

How does Alabama get 20 conference matches when the SEC only plays 18?

Whoops!  I will need to correct.

[redbeard2008]

Oct 20, 2014 6:49:42 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Umm you seem to be "forgetting" that Oregon beat Hawaii. And they don't use only out-of-conference - what gave you that impression?

Missed Hawaii, which is #23 in bluepenguin's extrapolation. I do seem to remember reading somewhere that only OOC top-25 wins were used to adjust the seedings, but my memory could be faulty. I still think that Oregon will not be a top-eight seed. North Carolina vs Colorado State is more open to debate.

[c4ndlelight]

Oct 20, 2014 11:42:31 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Oct 20, 2014 6:49:42 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Umm you seem to be "forgetting" that Oregon beat Hawaii. And they don't use only out-of-conference - what gave you that impression?

Missed Hawaii, which is #23 in bluepenguin's extrapolation. I do seem to remember reading somewhere that only OOC top-25 wins were used to adjust the seedings, but my memory could be faulty. I still think that Oregon will not be a top-eight seed. North Carolina vs Colorado State is more open to debate.

Top 25 OOC wins are nice, but so are in-conference Top 25 wins. What in North Carolina's resume makes theirs better? Colorado St. won't have more Top 25 wins, and Oregon will lap them in Top 50.

And you should clean up the errors in your analysis. The win totals for several teams are off. Florida also lost to Marquette. (they will also be thin on the win side, not sure why you have them as locks for Top 8)

[redbeard2008]

Oct 20, 2014 9:57:27 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

You have been misinformed. If conference wins against top 25 were excluded, it would greatly diminish the impact of relative conference strength, which, as we know, doesn't happen.Last year Washington was the 3 seed with only one non conference win against rpi top 25, Illinois, and they barely had a .500 record. Yeah, explain how uw gets a top seed if what they did in conference didn't matter?

Could be - I did say "I believe". I think conference top-25 wins should be used. Whether or not those wins are used, I still think it is questionable that North Carolina and Oregon will be top-eight seeds.

It does seem to me that if top-25 conference wins are used to adjust seedings, it would strongly advantage the Big Ten and the Pac-12, on top of conference RPI ("relative conference strength"?)- ten of bluepenguin's top-25 are from those two conferences, including six from the Pac-12.

I believe Washington's seeding last year can be explained on the basis of RPI alone (including conference RPI). Higher win-loss percentages do not necessarily correlate to higher RPI ratings.

[redbeard2008]

Oct 20, 2014 12:09:28 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Oct 20, 2014 11:42:31 GMT -5 redbeard2008 said:

Top 25 OOC wins are nice, but so are in-conference Top 25 wins. What in North Carolina's resume makes theirs better? Colorado St. won't have more Top 25 wins, and Oregon will lap them in Top 50.

And you should clean up the errors in your analysis. The win totals for several teams are off. Florida also lost to Marquette. (they will also be thin on the win side, not sure why you have them as locks for Top 8)

Not an analysis - just a compilation. If you have corrections, feel free to provide them, and I'll input them.

Florida at #8 is clearly on the edge (even if conference top-25 wins are considered), but would have more top-25 wins than either North Carolina or Oregon. A loss to Texas (1) won't hurt them and a win over Kentucky (11) would match North Carolina (head-to-head).

I didn't include top-25 losses.