Post by trojansc on Oct 21, 2014 3:54:45 GMT -5
Here's a preview of what I think the NCAA Tournament is going to look like this year. For the past two years I've been able to correctly predict (and agree with) the 33/32 at-large bids the NCAA has selected. My predictions with seedings are much less accurate. For the second straight year, there will be 32 at-large bids instead of the previous 33 before the addition of the AAC (American Athletic Conference).
I've separated the conferences into four different groups.
I. Conferences that will see only one-bid in the NCAAs.
II. Conferences that will LIKELY only see one-bid in the NCAAs.
III. Conferences that will LIKELY see MORE than one-bid in the NCAAs.
IV. Conferences that will FOR SURE see more tha one-bid in the NCAAs.
I. One-Bid Conferences (13)
American East
Atlantic 10
Big Sky
Big South
Colonial
Horizon
IVY
Metro Atlantic
Mid Eastern
Ohio Valley
Southern
Southland
SWAC
II. Likely One-Bid Conferences (12)
American Athletic Conference
Atlantic Sun
Big East
Conference USA
Mid-American
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
Northeast
Patriot
Summit
Sun Belt
WAC
III. Conferences with likely At-Large Bids (2)
Big West
West Coast Conference
IV. Conferences with guaranteed At-Large Bids (5)
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
SEC
Pac-12
I'm not going to do a breakdown on the teams in category one and about half of the teams in category 2. It will become more clear in later weeks and they don't seem too worthy of mentioning as of now. For the conferences that are worthy of mentioning, here's a breakdown, saving the Top 7 conferences for last. Their current RPI ranking is in parentheses as of 10/20.
LIU Brooklyn, UMKC, American, and South Dakota have RPI's of 60, 62, 63, and 68 respectively. Their resume's are not impressive and if they don't win their conference, at-large bids are all but out the window. Still, since they have a RPI within striking range, I did not want to consider their conferences as for-sure one bid squads (write out the check but don't sign it for the Northeast, WAC, Patriot, and Summit conferences)
American Athletic Conference
Central Florida (23)
Southern Methodist (48)
Tulsa (64)
There is no conference tournament, so as long as UCF keeps playing like they have, they will definitely be in the NCAA’s. Should they lose too many games to where they don’t win the AAC Championship, I don’t think they will make it in. This is unlikely, however. SMU’s situation is interesting. They have a win over a top-25 ranked Oklahoma, and their worst loss is 96 San Francisco which really isn’t that bad of a team. They also beat Arkansas. They are 16-4 now with 12 games remaining. I think if they lose just two of those games, you can count on them being in the NCAA tournament. That would put them at 26-6 with a pretty decent overall resume. Three or more losses and I think the Mustangs will finish with a nice record and an overall great season, but may be left out. Tulsa is within striking range, but they really have to get things together quickly. Every game is crucial. Don’t see them in the discussion.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb (40)
Lipscomb is the only realistic contender for an at-large bid. Their win over Kansas may really save their season should they be upset in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. If they are undefeated in conference and lose the A-Sun tournament, it will be really interesting to see if they get an NCAA bid. If they lose two more matches this season, I think Lipscomb's at-large chances are out the window.
Big East
Marquette (24)
Creighton (46)
Xavier (58)
I don’t know what it is with Xavier, but this is the third year straight in which they are in the RPI range of just outside the bubble (50-60). They always seem to put together just an average resume with nothing really to sell. This year is no different. Xavier’s best win is over Illinois State, and their worst loss is to #125 Dayton (19-5 record). Creighton’s resume is shaky, they do have a win over Marquette, but I’m not sure that will be enough. I think most likely, Creighton or Xavier need to win the Big East tournament to advance to the NCAA’s. In doing so, they will steal a bid from another at-large contender. I also do not think Marquette will be seeded.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky (41)
Western Kentucky is in an interesting position. They don't have any top-25 RPI victories but they did beat Purdue. They also don't have any really horrible losses, their worst is to #98 UTSA. I'm not sure they will get an at-large bid with such a shaky resume. A win over Purdue probably won't be good enough compared to other bubble teams. So most likely, bet on one from Conference USA.
Missouri Valley
illinois State (45)
Missouri state (66)
Missouri State is a long-shot, but why not give them some recognition for a pretty decent season so far. Illinois State is rollin through the Missouri Valley conference and has had a very solid season. They have a top-25 victory over Ohio State, and their worst loss is to #105 Missouri. Another situation where they will be firmly on the bubble if they continue winning but are upset in the MVC tournament. Count on this conference to be a one-bid conference, but illinois State may find itself as one of the last four in or last four out depending on how it plays out.
Mid American Conference
Ohio (52)
I am really rooting for Ohio to make it to the NCAA's. At 15-4, they've only lost to Arizona State, Hawai'i, Texas A&M, and Northwestern. They lost to Northwestern in 5 sets. All four of those teams may be in the NCAA's, I'd count on at least three of them being in the tournament. But their RPI puts them in a range just outside the bubble as of now. The MAC is not a strong conference and if they don't win the tournament it is likely they will not make the NCAA's. They also have a win over Ohio State. The problem is, that's it for solid victories. They also beat Xavier, who may finish
as a top-50 RPI team. They are thin on impressive victories which halts major concern.
Mountain West Conference
Colorado State (16)
Wyoming (65)
UNLV (72)
Colorado State should be seeded if they win out, or drop just one MWC game. If they do drop a MWC game, it is possible they may not be seeded. This is most likely going to be a one-bid conference, but out of respect, I am including Wyoming and UNLV in the at-large conversation for at least today. Should Wyoming win their last 10 matches, they would finish 26-5 with a win over Colorado State. That’d be a very interesting bubble situation. We saw Tulane post a 28-4 record but they could only cling to two victories over Tulsa for dear life on its postseason fate. Tulane was left out of the NCAAs. I do not think Wyoming will make the tournament, but if they win out, I think it’s hard to leave them out of the NCAAs. UNLV could also pull the same stunt if they win their last 10 games. They would finish 28-5 with victories over Wyoming and Colorado State. That may be enough to get them into the NCAA’s. Wyoming and UNLV play on the 30th of October in a do-or-die match for both teams.
Sun Belt
UALR (53)
Appalachian State (59)
Arkansas-Little Rock is having a great season. Their best win is over Miami (42). I don't see that as being good enough for an at-large. Appalachian State's chances are even more unlikely. This conference should be a one-bid conference.
Now to the two mid-major conferences on the West Coast:
Big West
Cal State Northridge (19)
Hawaii (29)
Long Beach State (31)
Notes
Cal State Northridge hurt its seeding chances by dropping two of their last four, to UCSB and Long Beach State. The loss to LBSU is not that bad, but the UCSB loss is costly (the Matadors were swept 3-0!) Barring a meltdown from Hawaii and LBSU, the Big West should safely have three bids. If Hawaii continues to be shaky and is upset a few more times, their resume may begin to look really sketchy. Long Beach State can’t afford to drop too many matches, but I wouldn’t panic if I were the 49ers or the Wahine. Just play solid for the remainder of the season. I think the most-likely case scenario is three bids with no seeded Big West teams. I won’t be stunned if Hawaii or Long Beach State stumble out of contention, but I wouldn’t bet it on it either.
West Coast Conference
BYU (27)
San Diego (28)
Loyola Marymount (37)
Santa Clara (47)
Gonzaga (56)
Pacific (57)
Notes
The RPI and the WCC are not getting along this year, they rarely do (except in 2012). BYU is the only team that I think is safe, I don’t see them collapsing. San Diego has had some huge victories these past couple weeks, saving their NCAA tournament hopes. There is much less stress on the Toreros now versus a few weeks ago. I’ve seen San Diego play very poorly this season but with a strong strength of schedule I think they are in. Loyola Marymount was undefeated in the non-conference, which I think may help their case for an NCAA bid. Sweeping UCLA and San Diego should save them in case they get upset a few more times to finish the WCC season. They could pretty much seal the deal with a victory over BYU, but nothing is safe for Tom Black’s 17-3 LMU squad. Their resume looks pretty sharp, despite a relatively weak OOC, their three losses all come in 5-sets, to Santa Clara, Gonzaga, and Pacific. Speaking of that trio, I think one of them could squeeze in to max-out the WCC NCAA bids at 4. Santa Clara has some separation now and if they continue to win, count them in. But if Gonzaga or Pacific go on a run to end the season, they could also get a bid. Most-likely scenario is three bids: BYU, San Diego, and Loyola Marymount.
Now on to the Big "5", where the majority of the at-large bids will come from.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State (2)
North Carolina (6)
Duke (20)
Miami (42)
Louisville (50)
Pittsburgh (54)
Virginia (55)
Clemson (78)
Florida State and North Carolina should be seeded teams. Duke could find a way to squeeze in to seeding contention but i don't think it's going to happen. Miami, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Virginia all fighting for a spot in the NCAAs. Clemson is an extreme longshot, but why not throw them in their just because. Pittsburgh has a spectacular record but weak strength of schedule. Virginia has a victory over Alabama, and Louisville has a victory over Arizona State, which may give them an upper advantage when comparing the conference's bubble teams. Neither Miami nor Pittsburgh have a Top-50 RPI victory (ouch!!). It will be interesting to see how the ACC plays out. I see the conference probably getting four bids. Three bids are a possibility, as are five bids but I am not sure the ACC deserves five bids....
Big-12
Texas (3)
Kansas State (17)
Kansas (18)
Oklahoma (25)
Iowa State (26)
Baylor (61)
Texas Tech (73)
West Virginia (86)
Baylor has a victory over #18 Kansas State, but lost to #249 Portland. (Ouch) That loss against Portland looks really really bad on paper – but the Pilots are not that bad. I cannot remember if it was last season or 2012, but Baylor lost on the last weekend to a struggling SMU team, which I think cost them their NCAA tournament bid. Texas Tech and West Virginia get honorable mention, but they shouldn't make the NCAA's. Oklahoma and Iowa State are near locks to the NCAA's, and I bet you either Kansas or Kansas state will be seeded. Maybe even three big 12 teams could be seeded depending on how the conference plays out. I think the Big 12 is pretty predictable and will get 5 bids. We'll see if Baylor can impress over the course of the end of the season.
Big Ten
Wisconsin (5)
Penn State (10)
Nebraska (11)
Illinois (12)
Ohio State (22)
Purdue (35)
Michigan State (38)
Michigan (39)
Minnesota (43)
Northwestern (44)
I see the Big-Ten getting four seeded teams, unless Illinois or Nebraska stumbles too hard. Ohio State should be a lock to the NCAA’s barring anything crazy. What’s interesting is the cluster around 35-44. Five Big Ten squads are floating right around the bubble, and I think they could all squeeze in and max out with 9 bids, but I also think it’s possible that they only get 7 bids if a few of them get upset and can’t beat any of the top-tier teams. I will have my work cut out for me for the Big Ten’s at-large situation. Michigan's win over Nebraska is huge. Purdue played a weak non-conference and has the worst loss of the group of 5 teams on the bubble. I'm probably going to start watching a lot more Big Ten volleyball, and I wish I had more to say, but it will be easier to compare once there is a little bit more separation.
Pac-12
Stanford (1)
Washington (4)
Oregon (7)
UCLA (13)
Arizona (14)
Southern California (15)
Colorado (32)
Oregon State (34)
Arizona State (36)
Utah (49)
Washington State (69)
California (75)
Stanford, Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Arizona, and Southern California should all be locks to the NCAA tournament. Barring anything bizarre, of course. I can’t realistically see any of them missing the tournament. The Pac-12 has six teams within the top 16 RPI, but I think only five will be seeded. UCLA, Arizona, or USC will likely miss out on a seed.
There was a brief concern, but Southern California only needs to win four matches to become NCAA-eligible. The Women of Troy still get to play Cal (x2), Washington state, Utah, Colorado, Oregon State. Six very winnable games, even if they drop two of those and lose to all of the top six teams in the Pac-12, they will still make the NCAAs. USC currently holds the nation’s 2nd strongest Strength Of Schedule, the only team with a better Opponent’s Record is Nebraska.
Stanford has 14 Top-50 RPI Victories and it looks like they are on their way to a #1 overall seed, as long as Washington doesn't have anything to say about it. I wonder if Stanford/UW winner takes an upset loss over the Pac-12 season and still gets #1 seed. It seems possible.
Colorado, Oregon State, and Arizona State are all in good position to make the NCAA tournament as long as they hold their own over the rest of the season. That's not really easy in the Pac-12. They've got to beat the lower tier of teams if they can't pull any upsets over the top tier of PAC teams. Colorado's victory over UCLA may be huge in the long-run, as is Oregon State beating Long Beach State. I am rooting for the Beavers to make the NCAA's.
Utah has played solid over the course of the season, but is not winning the crucial fifth set. That is the difference between the Utes and an at-large bid. If they go on a tear though, we could potentially see Utah on the bubble.
Washington State can't hold on for the big victories, and they have fallen below .500, so it's all but over for the Cougs. Same story goes for Cal. If they go on an absolutely remarkable run, they could somehow squeeze into a bubble conversation but again, extremely unlikely. Both are 0-7 in the conference.
SEC
Florida (8)
Kentucky (9)
Texas A&M (21)
LSU (30)
Alabama (33)
Ole Miss (51)
Arkansas (67)
South Carolina (70)
I think it’s safe to say the SEC will get at least five bids. If LSU or Alabama go on a losing streak, and Ole Miss (currently holding a 17-3 record) continues to play solid, then I think the Rebels will leapfrog either the Tigers or Tide. There is also an opportunity for Arkansas to somehow get back in the picture if they go on a roll, but it is highly unlikely in my opinion. The same holds for South Carolina. The Ole Miss situation is an interesting one to watch unfold, they have only lost to South Carolina, Florida, and Arkansas. I think if ole Miss wins 7 of their last 11 games, they are in. If they win 6 or 5, they are firmly on the bubble. If they only win 4, a bid will be a long shot. Florida and Kentucky should be seeded teams, and I think Texas A&M could squeeze back into the conversation if they finish the season strong. But most likely only two teams will be seeded.
I'll do my full version of the bracketology on November 3rd/4th, a couple weeks from now and the picture should be much clearer. Here are links to the previous two seasons if you are interested.
Click here to see Trojan Bracketology 2012
Click here to see Trojan Bracketology 2013
I've separated the conferences into four different groups.
I. Conferences that will see only one-bid in the NCAAs.
II. Conferences that will LIKELY only see one-bid in the NCAAs.
III. Conferences that will LIKELY see MORE than one-bid in the NCAAs.
IV. Conferences that will FOR SURE see more tha one-bid in the NCAAs.
I. One-Bid Conferences (13)
American East
Atlantic 10
Big Sky
Big South
Colonial
Horizon
IVY
Metro Atlantic
Mid Eastern
Ohio Valley
Southern
Southland
SWAC
II. Likely One-Bid Conferences (12)
American Athletic Conference
Atlantic Sun
Big East
Conference USA
Mid-American
Missouri Valley
Mountain West
Northeast
Patriot
Summit
Sun Belt
WAC
III. Conferences with likely At-Large Bids (2)
Big West
West Coast Conference
IV. Conferences with guaranteed At-Large Bids (5)
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
SEC
Pac-12
I'm not going to do a breakdown on the teams in category one and about half of the teams in category 2. It will become more clear in later weeks and they don't seem too worthy of mentioning as of now. For the conferences that are worthy of mentioning, here's a breakdown, saving the Top 7 conferences for last. Their current RPI ranking is in parentheses as of 10/20.
LIU Brooklyn, UMKC, American, and South Dakota have RPI's of 60, 62, 63, and 68 respectively. Their resume's are not impressive and if they don't win their conference, at-large bids are all but out the window. Still, since they have a RPI within striking range, I did not want to consider their conferences as for-sure one bid squads (write out the check but don't sign it for the Northeast, WAC, Patriot, and Summit conferences)
American Athletic Conference
Central Florida (23)
Southern Methodist (48)
Tulsa (64)
There is no conference tournament, so as long as UCF keeps playing like they have, they will definitely be in the NCAA’s. Should they lose too many games to where they don’t win the AAC Championship, I don’t think they will make it in. This is unlikely, however. SMU’s situation is interesting. They have a win over a top-25 ranked Oklahoma, and their worst loss is 96 San Francisco which really isn’t that bad of a team. They also beat Arkansas. They are 16-4 now with 12 games remaining. I think if they lose just two of those games, you can count on them being in the NCAA tournament. That would put them at 26-6 with a pretty decent overall resume. Three or more losses and I think the Mustangs will finish with a nice record and an overall great season, but may be left out. Tulsa is within striking range, but they really have to get things together quickly. Every game is crucial. Don’t see them in the discussion.
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb (40)
Lipscomb is the only realistic contender for an at-large bid. Their win over Kansas may really save their season should they be upset in the Atlantic Sun Tournament. If they are undefeated in conference and lose the A-Sun tournament, it will be really interesting to see if they get an NCAA bid. If they lose two more matches this season, I think Lipscomb's at-large chances are out the window.
Big East
Marquette (24)
Creighton (46)
Xavier (58)
I don’t know what it is with Xavier, but this is the third year straight in which they are in the RPI range of just outside the bubble (50-60). They always seem to put together just an average resume with nothing really to sell. This year is no different. Xavier’s best win is over Illinois State, and their worst loss is to #125 Dayton (19-5 record). Creighton’s resume is shaky, they do have a win over Marquette, but I’m not sure that will be enough. I think most likely, Creighton or Xavier need to win the Big East tournament to advance to the NCAA’s. In doing so, they will steal a bid from another at-large contender. I also do not think Marquette will be seeded.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky (41)
Western Kentucky is in an interesting position. They don't have any top-25 RPI victories but they did beat Purdue. They also don't have any really horrible losses, their worst is to #98 UTSA. I'm not sure they will get an at-large bid with such a shaky resume. A win over Purdue probably won't be good enough compared to other bubble teams. So most likely, bet on one from Conference USA.
Missouri Valley
illinois State (45)
Missouri state (66)
Missouri State is a long-shot, but why not give them some recognition for a pretty decent season so far. Illinois State is rollin through the Missouri Valley conference and has had a very solid season. They have a top-25 victory over Ohio State, and their worst loss is to #105 Missouri. Another situation where they will be firmly on the bubble if they continue winning but are upset in the MVC tournament. Count on this conference to be a one-bid conference, but illinois State may find itself as one of the last four in or last four out depending on how it plays out.
Mid American Conference
Ohio (52)
I am really rooting for Ohio to make it to the NCAA's. At 15-4, they've only lost to Arizona State, Hawai'i, Texas A&M, and Northwestern. They lost to Northwestern in 5 sets. All four of those teams may be in the NCAA's, I'd count on at least three of them being in the tournament. But their RPI puts them in a range just outside the bubble as of now. The MAC is not a strong conference and if they don't win the tournament it is likely they will not make the NCAA's. They also have a win over Ohio State. The problem is, that's it for solid victories. They also beat Xavier, who may finish
as a top-50 RPI team. They are thin on impressive victories which halts major concern.
Mountain West Conference
Colorado State (16)
Wyoming (65)
UNLV (72)
Colorado State should be seeded if they win out, or drop just one MWC game. If they do drop a MWC game, it is possible they may not be seeded. This is most likely going to be a one-bid conference, but out of respect, I am including Wyoming and UNLV in the at-large conversation for at least today. Should Wyoming win their last 10 matches, they would finish 26-5 with a win over Colorado State. That’d be a very interesting bubble situation. We saw Tulane post a 28-4 record but they could only cling to two victories over Tulsa for dear life on its postseason fate. Tulane was left out of the NCAAs. I do not think Wyoming will make the tournament, but if they win out, I think it’s hard to leave them out of the NCAAs. UNLV could also pull the same stunt if they win their last 10 games. They would finish 28-5 with victories over Wyoming and Colorado State. That may be enough to get them into the NCAA’s. Wyoming and UNLV play on the 30th of October in a do-or-die match for both teams.
Sun Belt
UALR (53)
Appalachian State (59)
Arkansas-Little Rock is having a great season. Their best win is over Miami (42). I don't see that as being good enough for an at-large. Appalachian State's chances are even more unlikely. This conference should be a one-bid conference.
Now to the two mid-major conferences on the West Coast:
Big West
Cal State Northridge (19)
Hawaii (29)
Long Beach State (31)
Notes
Cal State Northridge hurt its seeding chances by dropping two of their last four, to UCSB and Long Beach State. The loss to LBSU is not that bad, but the UCSB loss is costly (the Matadors were swept 3-0!) Barring a meltdown from Hawaii and LBSU, the Big West should safely have three bids. If Hawaii continues to be shaky and is upset a few more times, their resume may begin to look really sketchy. Long Beach State can’t afford to drop too many matches, but I wouldn’t panic if I were the 49ers or the Wahine. Just play solid for the remainder of the season. I think the most-likely case scenario is three bids with no seeded Big West teams. I won’t be stunned if Hawaii or Long Beach State stumble out of contention, but I wouldn’t bet it on it either.
West Coast Conference
BYU (27)
San Diego (28)
Loyola Marymount (37)
Santa Clara (47)
Gonzaga (56)
Pacific (57)
Notes
The RPI and the WCC are not getting along this year, they rarely do (except in 2012). BYU is the only team that I think is safe, I don’t see them collapsing. San Diego has had some huge victories these past couple weeks, saving their NCAA tournament hopes. There is much less stress on the Toreros now versus a few weeks ago. I’ve seen San Diego play very poorly this season but with a strong strength of schedule I think they are in. Loyola Marymount was undefeated in the non-conference, which I think may help their case for an NCAA bid. Sweeping UCLA and San Diego should save them in case they get upset a few more times to finish the WCC season. They could pretty much seal the deal with a victory over BYU, but nothing is safe for Tom Black’s 17-3 LMU squad. Their resume looks pretty sharp, despite a relatively weak OOC, their three losses all come in 5-sets, to Santa Clara, Gonzaga, and Pacific. Speaking of that trio, I think one of them could squeeze in to max-out the WCC NCAA bids at 4. Santa Clara has some separation now and if they continue to win, count them in. But if Gonzaga or Pacific go on a run to end the season, they could also get a bid. Most-likely scenario is three bids: BYU, San Diego, and Loyola Marymount.
Now on to the Big "5", where the majority of the at-large bids will come from.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State (2)
North Carolina (6)
Duke (20)
Miami (42)
Louisville (50)
Pittsburgh (54)
Virginia (55)
Clemson (78)
Florida State and North Carolina should be seeded teams. Duke could find a way to squeeze in to seeding contention but i don't think it's going to happen. Miami, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Virginia all fighting for a spot in the NCAAs. Clemson is an extreme longshot, but why not throw them in their just because. Pittsburgh has a spectacular record but weak strength of schedule. Virginia has a victory over Alabama, and Louisville has a victory over Arizona State, which may give them an upper advantage when comparing the conference's bubble teams. Neither Miami nor Pittsburgh have a Top-50 RPI victory (ouch!!). It will be interesting to see how the ACC plays out. I see the conference probably getting four bids. Three bids are a possibility, as are five bids but I am not sure the ACC deserves five bids....
Big-12
Texas (3)
Kansas State (17)
Kansas (18)
Oklahoma (25)
Iowa State (26)
Baylor (61)
Texas Tech (73)
West Virginia (86)
Baylor has a victory over #18 Kansas State, but lost to #249 Portland. (Ouch) That loss against Portland looks really really bad on paper – but the Pilots are not that bad. I cannot remember if it was last season or 2012, but Baylor lost on the last weekend to a struggling SMU team, which I think cost them their NCAA tournament bid. Texas Tech and West Virginia get honorable mention, but they shouldn't make the NCAA's. Oklahoma and Iowa State are near locks to the NCAA's, and I bet you either Kansas or Kansas state will be seeded. Maybe even three big 12 teams could be seeded depending on how the conference plays out. I think the Big 12 is pretty predictable and will get 5 bids. We'll see if Baylor can impress over the course of the end of the season.
Big Ten
Wisconsin (5)
Penn State (10)
Nebraska (11)
Illinois (12)
Ohio State (22)
Purdue (35)
Michigan State (38)
Michigan (39)
Minnesota (43)
Northwestern (44)
I see the Big-Ten getting four seeded teams, unless Illinois or Nebraska stumbles too hard. Ohio State should be a lock to the NCAA’s barring anything crazy. What’s interesting is the cluster around 35-44. Five Big Ten squads are floating right around the bubble, and I think they could all squeeze in and max out with 9 bids, but I also think it’s possible that they only get 7 bids if a few of them get upset and can’t beat any of the top-tier teams. I will have my work cut out for me for the Big Ten’s at-large situation. Michigan's win over Nebraska is huge. Purdue played a weak non-conference and has the worst loss of the group of 5 teams on the bubble. I'm probably going to start watching a lot more Big Ten volleyball, and I wish I had more to say, but it will be easier to compare once there is a little bit more separation.
Pac-12
Stanford (1)
Washington (4)
Oregon (7)
UCLA (13)
Arizona (14)
Southern California (15)
Colorado (32)
Oregon State (34)
Arizona State (36)
Utah (49)
Washington State (69)
California (75)
Stanford, Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Arizona, and Southern California should all be locks to the NCAA tournament. Barring anything bizarre, of course. I can’t realistically see any of them missing the tournament. The Pac-12 has six teams within the top 16 RPI, but I think only five will be seeded. UCLA, Arizona, or USC will likely miss out on a seed.
There was a brief concern, but Southern California only needs to win four matches to become NCAA-eligible. The Women of Troy still get to play Cal (x2), Washington state, Utah, Colorado, Oregon State. Six very winnable games, even if they drop two of those and lose to all of the top six teams in the Pac-12, they will still make the NCAAs. USC currently holds the nation’s 2nd strongest Strength Of Schedule, the only team with a better Opponent’s Record is Nebraska.
Stanford has 14 Top-50 RPI Victories and it looks like they are on their way to a #1 overall seed, as long as Washington doesn't have anything to say about it. I wonder if Stanford/UW winner takes an upset loss over the Pac-12 season and still gets #1 seed. It seems possible.
Colorado, Oregon State, and Arizona State are all in good position to make the NCAA tournament as long as they hold their own over the rest of the season. That's not really easy in the Pac-12. They've got to beat the lower tier of teams if they can't pull any upsets over the top tier of PAC teams. Colorado's victory over UCLA may be huge in the long-run, as is Oregon State beating Long Beach State. I am rooting for the Beavers to make the NCAA's.
Utah has played solid over the course of the season, but is not winning the crucial fifth set. That is the difference between the Utes and an at-large bid. If they go on a tear though, we could potentially see Utah on the bubble.
Washington State can't hold on for the big victories, and they have fallen below .500, so it's all but over for the Cougs. Same story goes for Cal. If they go on an absolutely remarkable run, they could somehow squeeze into a bubble conversation but again, extremely unlikely. Both are 0-7 in the conference.
SEC
Florida (8)
Kentucky (9)
Texas A&M (21)
LSU (30)
Alabama (33)
Ole Miss (51)
Arkansas (67)
South Carolina (70)
I think it’s safe to say the SEC will get at least five bids. If LSU or Alabama go on a losing streak, and Ole Miss (currently holding a 17-3 record) continues to play solid, then I think the Rebels will leapfrog either the Tigers or Tide. There is also an opportunity for Arkansas to somehow get back in the picture if they go on a roll, but it is highly unlikely in my opinion. The same holds for South Carolina. The Ole Miss situation is an interesting one to watch unfold, they have only lost to South Carolina, Florida, and Arkansas. I think if ole Miss wins 7 of their last 11 games, they are in. If they win 6 or 5, they are firmly on the bubble. If they only win 4, a bid will be a long shot. Florida and Kentucky should be seeded teams, and I think Texas A&M could squeeze back into the conversation if they finish the season strong. But most likely only two teams will be seeded.
I'll do my full version of the bracketology on November 3rd/4th, a couple weeks from now and the picture should be much clearer. Here are links to the previous two seasons if you are interested.
Click here to see Trojan Bracketology 2012
Click here to see Trojan Bracketology 2013
