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Post by tomclen on Oct 21, 2014 9:22:29 GMT -5
The AVCA Coaches Poll and the NCAA RPI have the same exact top 4 teams. They're not quite in the same order, but it's the same teams: Stanford, Texas, FSU & Washington.
Of course, so much depends on brackets and matchups. And the 2nd half of the season, everything could change. But assuming those are the top 4 seeds in the tournament...which one under-performs. Which of the 4 gets bumped earliest from the tournament.
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Post by vbnerd on Oct 21, 2014 9:49:00 GMT -5
I'd say Washington, except they are going to be at home which means Stanford get shipped east to cold weather and a 2 hour time change which could present some stress.
Texas is the least tested team in the group. 5 contested matches in a season is not going to instill confidence - their resume is not much stronger than last year's Missouri club.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 21, 2014 10:19:30 GMT -5
Current pablo rankings for those four teams:
1) Texas
2) Washington
4) Stanford
11) FSU
Likely they all play at home in rounds 1/2. Only Washington has the advantage of playing the 3/4 rounds at home. But which one gets eliminated first depends too much on matchups.
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Post by tclenpsu1 on Oct 21, 2014 10:25:33 GMT -5
They will send PSU to Washsington to take care of business.....i kid
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Post by lionsfan on Oct 21, 2014 10:31:47 GMT -5
They will send PSU to Washsington to take care of business.....i kid My nightmare scenario. They'll probably throw UCLA in that region also to further frighten me. My current meaningless seeding predictions, as posted on DigNittany: Ames Regional: 1. Stanford, 2. Oregon, 3. Nebraska, 4. Kentucky Louisville Regional: 1. Texas, 2. Wisconsin, 3. North Carolina, 4. Arizona Minneapolis Regional: 1. Florida State, 2. Florida, 3. Illinois, 4. Southern Cal Seattle Regional: 1. Washington, 2. Penn State, 3. UCLA, 4. Colorado State
Colorado State has to beat BYU, while Kentucky has to beat Purdue.www.dignittanyvolleyball.com/lionsfan-looks-at-week-9/ |
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Post by badgerbreath on Oct 21, 2014 10:37:22 GMT -5
That Seattle regional looks outrageous. Surely you are engaging in self-flagellation! CSU as a 4 seed?
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 21, 2014 10:40:02 GMT -5
It would be a little bit of payback time if CSU had to come down to sea level and play Washington at home. (That being said, BYU did pretty well the last time they came to Seattle in the tournament!)
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 21, 2014 10:41:06 GMT -5
I have an inkling that the Seattle regional will turn into a true Northwest regional, with UW/Oregon/CSU/BYU
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2014 10:48:07 GMT -5
Just curious - Do you think Florida State will be a top 4 seed if they do not win the ACC? I think there is a reasonable chance (15-20%) that UNC wins the ACC outright. What if FSU ties for the ACC with just 1 loss, while Wisconsin wins the Big 10 with just 2 total losses (@ Washington and PSU)?
As for the DigNittany prediction - the Louisville regiion would be every bit as hard as the Seattle one.
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Post by bballnut90 on Oct 21, 2014 11:00:00 GMT -5
Just curious - Do you think Florida State will be a top 4 seed if they do not win the ACC? I think there is a reasonable chance (15-20%) that UNC wins the ACC outright. What if FSU ties for the ACC with just 1 loss, while Wisconsin wins the Big 10 with just 2 total losses (@ Washington and PSU)? As for the DigNittany prediction - the Louisville regiion would be every bit as hard as the Seattle one. If FSU loses to UNC or loses a match, I think they are bumped from their top 4 seed. I'd take an 18-2 or 19-1 Wisconsin in the Big 10 over Florida State if FSU loses a match. |
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Post by SportyBucky on Oct 21, 2014 11:03:03 GMT -5
Just curious - Do you think Florida State will be a top 4 seed if they do not win the ACC? I think there is a reasonable chance (15-20%) that UNC wins the ACC outright. What if FSU ties for the ACC with just 1 loss, while Wisconsin wins the Big 10 with just 2 total losses (@ Washington and PSU)? As for the DigNittany prediction - the Louisville regiion would be every bit as hard as the Seattle one. If FSU loses to UNC or loses a match, I think they are bumped from their top 4 seed. I'd take an 18-2 or 19-1 Wisconsin in the Big 10 over Florida State if FSU loses a match. Absolutely correct. |
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Post by vball1825 on Oct 21, 2014 11:29:15 GMT -5
Just curious - Do you think Florida State will be a top 4 seed if they do not win the ACC? I think there is a reasonable chance (15-20%) that UNC wins the ACC outright. What if FSU ties for the ACC with just 1 loss, while Wisconsin wins the Big 10 with just 2 total losses (@ Washington and PSU)? As for the DigNittany prediction - the Louisville regiion would be every bit as hard as the Seattle one. If FSU loses one match to UNC on the road, they will still be a top 4 seed in my book. And i doubt Wisc only comes out with two loses. |
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Post by redbeard2008 on Oct 21, 2014 12:52:54 GMT -5
That Seattle regional looks outrageous. Surely you are engaging in self-flagellation! CSU as a 4 seed? Bluepenguin's current RPI futures has CSU at #9 and PSU at #10. Lionsfan's scenario has the first falling four spots to #13 and the second rising five spots to #5. I wasn't aware that the 5th seed was reserved for the B1G champion. If Wisconsin, yes; if PSU, maybe not. So, what happens if Washington drops a match (@ UCLA?), but beats Stanford in Seattle? 1. Texas, 2. Washington, 3. Stanford, 4. FSU? Or if they remain undefeated, beating Stanford? 1. Washington, 2. Texas, 3. Stanford, 4. FSU? Florida as a 6th seed, just to put them in the same regional as FSU? The only way that happens is if they beat FSU, but then wouldn't that drop FSU out of the top four seeds: 1. Stanford, 2. Texas, 3. Washington, 4. Wisconsin? Sending PSU to the Seattle Regional is not unprecedented - it happened in 2004 and 2006. Both times, PSU failed to advance, losing to UCLA and Washington. There is a school of thought among Husky fans that they'd rather face PSU in Seattle than later in Oklahoma. Me, while I like UW's chances against PSU at Hec Ed, I'd prefer to take my chances that somebody else will knock off PSU. |
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Post by southie on Oct 21, 2014 13:07:59 GMT -5
Based on recent post-season experience, I would say Florida State would be the most vulnerable to elimination prior to Texas, Stanford, or Washington.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 21, 2014 13:17:05 GMT -5
Just curious - Do you think Florida State will be a top 4 seed if they do not win the ACC? I think there is a reasonable chance (15-20%) that UNC wins the ACC outright. What if FSU ties for the ACC with just 1 loss, while Wisconsin wins the Big 10 with just 2 total losses (@ Washington and PSU)? As for the DigNittany prediction - the Louisville regiion would be every bit as hard as the Seattle one. If FSU loses one match to UNC on the road, they will still be a top 4 seed in my book. And i doubt Wisc only comes out with two loses.Maybe (Probably). Using Pablo ratings to calculate win probabilities (WP) - Wisconsin has about a 22-23% chance of winning their remaining 12 matches. Florida State has around a 20% of winning the rest of their games not counting @ North Carolina. Wisconsin only has 2 games left on their schedule where they are not better than 80% of winning. at Purdue (77.1%) and home against Illinois (78.7%). They do have 5 matches where their WP is between 80-90%. Their WP is greater than 75% in each match. Florida State has a less than a 70% of winning in 3 remaining matches; at Pittsburgh (60.2%), at Duke (62.0%), and at UNC (35.8%). They have 4 addional matches were their WP is between 80-90%. FSU's chances of running the table is less than 10%. |
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