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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 26, 2014 23:30:16 GMT -5
Standings:
(5) Stanford 12-0 (1) Washington 12-0 (14) Arizona 7-5 (20) Colorado 7-5 (8) Oregon 7-5 (13) UCLA 7-5 (18) ASU 6-6 (16) USC 6-6 (30) OSU 5-7 (41) Utah 2-10 (51) WSU 1-11 (64) Cal 0-12
(Oct 27 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites [Red means current pablo favors opponent in upcoming match.]
Washington: (7-0) [4 remaining: Ore, AZ, ASU, Stan] Stanford: (6-0) [5 remaining: ASU, AZ, @USC, @UCLA, @UW] Arizona: (2-3) [5 remaining: @Stan, Ore, @UW, USC, @ASU] ASU: (2-3) [5 remaining: @Stan, Ore, @UW, UCLA, AZ] UCLA: (2-4) [4 remaining: [Stan, @Ore, @ASU, USC] Oregon: (2-5) [5 remaining: @UW, @AZ, @ASU, UCLA, USC] USC: (0-6) [4 remaining: Stan, @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
Arizona (2): @Colorado, Colorado ASU (3): @Utah, @OSU, Colorado UCLA (1): Colorado
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Wed: 7:30pm UW@USC
Fri (Halloween!): 6pm Col@AZ, WSU@USC, UW@UCLA, Stan@OSU 7pm Utah@ASU 8pm Cal@Ore
Sat: 6pm Utah@AZ
Sun: 11am Stan@Ore, Col@ASU, WSU@UCLA noon Cal@OSU
Bold is pablo favorite.
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Week 7 schedule:
Oregon@Washington, LA@Mountains, Arizona@BayArea
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2014 18:02:36 GMT -5
Updated for Oct 27 pablo.
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Post by tomclen on Oct 27, 2014 18:09:37 GMT -5
BTW, the UW VB schedule web page now lists a live stream for Friday's match at UCLA.
Now I just need to figure out how to shush the trick-or-treaters from 6p to 8p or so.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2014 18:13:11 GMT -5
BTW, the UW VB schedule web page now lists a live stream for Friday's match at UCLA. Thanks. I took out the question about video.
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Post by hammer on Oct 27, 2014 18:31:47 GMT -5
Well, perhaps either Stanford, UW or both lose a match this weekend. Oregon beat Stanford badly in one set @ Maples, so I think they are very capable of sneaking a win @ home against the Card. UW had to rally for a 3-2 win against UCLA @ home, so you would think UCLA has a decent shot of stopping the Huskies @ the John Wooden Ctr.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2014 18:35:40 GMT -5
UW had to rally for a 3-2 win against UCLA @ home, so you would think UCLA has a decent shot of stopping the Huskies @ the John Wooden Ctr. Yes, of course they have a decent chance. Washington had a surprisingly big margin in total points from that match considering it was 3-2, though. Once the Huskies really got going (and UCLA seemed to tire), the margins of victory got pretty big in the last few sets.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Oct 27, 2014 20:18:02 GMT -5
UW had to rally for a 3-2 win against UCLA @ home, so you would think UCLA has a decent shot of stopping the Huskies @ the John Wooden Ctr. Yes, of course they have a decent chance. Washington had a surprisingly big margin in total points from that match considering it was 3-2, though. Once the Huskies really got going (and UCLA seemed to tire), the margins of victory got pretty big in the last few sets. In a five-set thriller, I WANT Vansant on my side...
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 27, 2014 21:14:52 GMT -5
Looking ahead, here are the projected number of conference wins based on who is favored for each game (per Pablo ratings):
1. Washington 20 2. Stanford 19 3. Oregon 14 4. Arizona 13 4. UCLA 13 6. Colorado 10 6. Arizona State 10 8. USC 9 9. Oregon State 6 10. Utah 4 11. Washington State 2 12. Cal 0
And here is the # of wins taking the probability method (per Pablo ratings):
1. Washington - 18.3 2. Stanford - 17.5 3. Oregon - 12.2 4. Arizona - 11.7 4. UCLA - 11.7 6. Arizona State - 9.8 7. USC - 9.7 8. Colorado - 9.6 9. Oregon State - 7.8 10. Utah - 5.3 11. Washington State - 4.1 12. Cal - 2.3
Probability shows a much tighter middle of the conference - expect upsets.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 27, 2014 21:23:36 GMT -5
Looking ahead, here are the projected number of conference wins based on who is favored for each game (per Pablo ratings): 1. Washington 20 2. Stanford 19 3. Oregon 14 4. Arizona 13 4. UCLA 13 6. Colorado 10 6. Arizona State 10 8. USC 9 9. Oregon State 6 10. Utah 4 11. Washington State 2 12. Cal 0 And here is the # of wins taking the probability method (per Pablo ratings): 1. Washington - 18.3 2. Stanford - 17.5 3. Oregon - 12.2 4. Arizona - 11.7 4. UCLA - 11.7 6. Arizona State - 9.8 7. USC - 9.7 8. Colorado - 9.6 9. Oregon State - 7.8 10. Utah - 5.3 11. Washington State - 4.1 12. Cal - 2.3 Probability shows a much tighter middle of the conference - expect upsets. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theoremThe more randomness you put in the prediction, the more it is going to end up predicting a normal distribution.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 29, 2014 23:37:10 GMT -5
Standings:
(1) Washington 11-0 (5) Stanford 10-0 (14) Arizona 6-4 (8) Oregon 6-4 (13) UCLA 6-4 (18) ASU 5-5 (20) Colorado 5-5 (16) USC 5-6 (30) OSU 4-6 (41) Utah 2-8 (51) WSU 1-9 (64) Cal 0-10
(Oct 27 pablo rankings)
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Head-to-head among favorites [Red means current pablo favors opponent in upcoming match.]
Washington: (6-0) [5 remaining: @UCLA, Ore, AZ, ASU, Stan] Stanford: (5-0) [6 remaining: @Ore, ASU, AZ, @USC, @UCLA, @UW] Arizona: (2-3) [5 remaining: @Stan, Ore, @UW, USC, @ASU] ASU: (2-3) [5 remaining: @Stan, Ore, @UW, UCLA, AZ] UCLA: (2-3) [5 remaining: UW, Stan, @Ore, @ASU, USC] Oregon: (2-4) [6 remaining: Stan, @UW, @AZ, @ASU, UCLA, USC] USC: (0-6) [4 remaining: Stan, @Ore, @AZ, @UCLA]
Losses by these teams to others:
Arizona (1): @Colorado ASU (2): @Utah, @OSU UCLA (1): Colorado
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This week's matches (Pacific times)
Fri (Halloween!): 6pm Col@AZ, WSU@USC, UW@UCLA, Stan@OSU 7pm Utah@ASU 8pm Cal@Ore
Sat: 6pm Utah@AZ
Sun: 11am Stan@Ore, Col@ASU, WSU@UCLA noon Cal@OSU
Bold is pablo favorite.
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Week 7 schedule:
Oregon@Washington, LA@Mountains, Arizona@BayArea
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 30, 2014 1:53:21 GMT -5
USC is 5-6 in conference, but the six losses are to UW(x2), Stanford, ASU, Oregon, and UCLA. All six losses to teams among the top 20 in the country, according to pablo. Four of the losses to teams in the top 10.
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Post by baywatcher on Oct 30, 2014 8:17:03 GMT -5
SC has the fewest matches left against the favorites; they should be all right eventually.
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Post by mikegarrison on Oct 30, 2014 11:16:48 GMT -5
SC has the fewest matches left against the favorites; they should be all right eventually. If by "all right eventually" you mean pablo predicting they will end up 10-10 in conference, I guess that's true.
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Post by tomclen on Oct 30, 2014 11:27:15 GMT -5
With a decent bracket, I think any of the top 8 teams in the Pac-12 standings could make it to the Final Four.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Oct 30, 2014 11:29:28 GMT -5
SC has the fewest matches left against the favorites; they should be all right eventually. If by "all right eventually" you mean pablo predicting they will end up 10-10 in conference, I guess that's true. For all the talk of USC's annus horribilis, they'll still be a tournament team, Top 25 all season, and likely shipped out to a subregional in the South or East where they'll have a solid chance (maybe more than if they did snag a seed - and BYU). Compare that to Cal's "down" year, or UCLA last season. So "all right eventually" isn't too far off.
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