This is a breakdown for at-large and automatic bids by conference, all of the RPI rankings discussed are as of the week of 10/20, I will update them later today when the RPI comes out at around noon Pacific. We are less than a month from conference tournament play...
America East
The America East Conference leader as of now is New Hampshire. The Wildcats won the America East conference tournament in 2013 but were ousted in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament as they were sent to #6 Southern California. The 2014 America East tournament will determine the conference's only NCAA-Tournament participant as they will not receive an at-large bid. Only the top four teams will be in the conference tournament. Watch out for Albany - who is the only team in the America East to defeat New Hampshire this season. The top-seeded team hosts the conference tournament. Dark Horse is Binghamton, who went 2-13 in non-conference but is 5-2 in conference play..
Atlantic 10The A-10 will also be a 1-bid conference since nobody in the conference has a great RPI. Dayton, at 21-5 and 8-1 in conference, sits atop the standings. The top six will be invited to the A-10 tournament, and strangely, it looks like the top six are pretty clear. Dayton is #1 at 8-1, but there is a Five-way tie for second place. Five teams are all 6-3 (VCU, Saint Louis, Duquense, Rhode Island, and George Washington). Saint Louis beat Purdue this season, so they may be a tough out in the A-10 tournament. I will be shocked if any of the bottom four crawl back into eligibility for the A-10 tournament.
Big Sky
8 teams will play in the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The top 8 teams will be the teams with the best conference record, regardless of division. There is no clear leader, but count on North Dakota or Idaho State to be the #1 and #2 seeds. The Idaho St. Bengals are looking to make a trip back to the NCAA's, they had a good showing at Hawaii last season. Dark Horse - Northern Arizona. Watch out for the Lumberjacks are 16-5, 7-3 in conference.
Big SouthLiberty is on top of the Big South with a 22-5 record, 9-0 in conference. None of that is going to matter because the top 8 teams will get into the Big South tournament and nobody is going to receive an at-large bid. Dark-Horse goes to Coastal Carolina because of their recent victory over South Carolina.
ColonialHofstra is leading the conference with a 9-1 record. College of Charleston (no longer has Darcy Dorton) is right behind with a 8-2 record. Towson and Hofstra have outstanding records at 21-3 (both of them) but they haven't played anyone really and aren't in consideration for an at-large bid. The Top six make it to the conference tournament, and it looks like it will be UNCW, Delaware, and James Madison joining the three mentioned above.
HorizonAnother one-bid conference, the bid will come from the winner of the 6-team Horizon tournament. Oakland and 2013 Champion Milwaukee are tied for 1st in the conference standings. Count on Youngstown State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparasio, and Cleveland State to be in the conference tournament.
IvyYale is on a roll in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs have taken six straight, and are ahead of Harvard (who beat Santa Clara!) in the standings. Harvard actually beat Yale in their first meeting of the season, but were stunned in a 3-0 sweep by Brown and fell to Dartmouth. If Yale beats Harvard in their next meeting, I think Yale is going to advance to the NCAA tournament. This conference has no tournament, so the regular season champion advances. There is outside hope for Princeton and even more of a long-shot is Dartmouth. It's probably going to come down to a classic Yale v Harvard show down.
Metro AtlanticAll 10 teams from the MAAC advance to the conference tournament, so even Quinnipiac at 0-13 in conference still has a chance to advance to the NCAAs. The two-time defending MAAC Champions, Fairfield, are tied for 3rd in conference standings. Marist, at 11-1, leads the MAAC. The conference is a toss up, and of course, 1-bid only. Dark-Horse: Rider.
Mid EasternMEAC Conference Tournament will determine the league's lone bid. Four teams from the North and Four from the South advance to the 3-day tournament. Hampton is undefeated in the North, Florida A&M undefeated in the South. Vendula Strakova continues to put up great numbers for Hampton. I look for Hampton to repeat as champions and take the auto bid to the 2014 NCAAs.
Ohio Valley
OVC looks to be a toss-up as well. Murray State is atop the conference at 9-1. Belmont is right behind at 8-2. The top 8 teams advance to the conference tournament, the bottom 4 of 12 could still fight their way in so who know's what's going to happen in the OVC. Dark-Horse: Austin Peay. The only team in the OVC to top Murray State this season.
Southern Samford leads the SoCon with a 9-1 record. All 9 teams advance to the SoCon conference tournament, so everyone is alive. North Carolina Greensboro is the only team to defeat Samford in the SoCon (and they swept!)
SouthlandSouthland Conference features an 8-team conference tournament, and it looks like seven of the 8 are clear. Their will be a battle between Nicholls, Lamar, and McNeese State to round out the tournament. Stephen F. Austin and Central Arkansas are both undefeated in conference play, at 11-0 and 10-0 respectively. They meet on November 1st in Nacogdoches, TX in which should be a good match. Sugar Bears trying to return to the NCAA tournament.
SWACThere will be 1-bid from this league, and it will be from whoever can win the bloodbath that is the Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament. 4 teams from the east and 4 from the west participate. Alabama State is undefeated in the East, Texas Southern in the west. Miss Valley St and Grambling State have not won in the SWAC, and will probably not make the conference tournament.
This is the most difficult tournament format in NCAA volleyball (if the competition was great - it would be REALLY interesting to see how things play out). This is a two-day tournament. Teams are put into two separate 4-team double elimination brackets. Whoever wins each double elimination bracket will advance to the Championship match. Every team will play at least two matches on Day 1, some will play three. If you lose your first match, you have to win two more matches on Day 1, then THREE matches on Day 2 to win the tournament. Or, if you win your first match on Day 1, lose your second match, you will play a third game (elimination) to see if you advance to Day 2. On Day 2, then you'd have to win three times, two against the same opponent to advance to the Championship.
The format is completely nuts. There is a possibility of playing back-to-back triple headers. Don't even THINK about playing five-sets. Even if you win both games of your doubleheader on Day 1, you
still have to play two matches on Day 2 (and potentially three).
American Athletic ConferenceCentral Florida is on top of the AAC, and nobody has been able to stop them. They are 10-0 and have beaten every conference team. They were taken to five sets at Southern Methodist and at Memphis. The regular-season champion advances to the NCAA Tournament, and it looks like Memphis has the best shot at challenging UCF. They'd have to take down UCF in their house, and hope that the Golden Knights drop a couple more games along the way and Memphis remains perfect. In my opinion, not going to happen. UCF is good. They are 17-5, but look at who those 5 losses are to: Texas, Arizona, Kansas State, Marquette, and Florida. All top-25 RPI teams. At 23 in RPI, I don't think UCF has a chance at hosting the first round. They will likely be sent to Florida and will be very dangerous.
Temple is HOT, winning 6 of their last 7 (only dropping to #2 Memphis). They had a huge weekend, beating SMU and Tulsa this weekend. Southern Methodist is in the running for an NCAA at-large bid, but the loss to Temple certainly will not help them. Tulsa was an even further stretch, but at 5-5 in the AAC so far they have very little hope. As of now, I'm saying this is a one-trick pony and UCF is the only AAC team in the NCAA's.
Atlantic SunEvery bubble team and their mother are rooting for Lipscomb to win the A-SUN tournament. After an undefeated start in the A-Sun, Lipscomb was upended by Northern Kentucky this weekend in five sets. That's huge because Lipscomb is ranked #40 in RPI and competing against a lot of bubble teams. Florida Gulf Coast is proving to be competitive, tied with Lipscomb at the top of the A-SUN standings with a 7-1 record. Six teams will advance to the A-Sun Tournament, and it appears only Lipscomb and FGCU look comfortable to make it in. Stetson is #3 at 5-3, but Northern Kentucky is #4 at 4-4, and three teams are tied for #5 at 3-5 (Jacksonville, Kennesaw State, and North Florida). Look out for North Florida who has won five straight. USC Upstate at 0-8 in conference looks to be the only one out of the running. If Lipscomb drops two more regular season matches, their NCAA post-season hopes are realllly thin in my book.
Big East
This weekend was huge for Xavier. The Muskateers beat Seton Hall in five-sets (also beating Villanova) to put themselves within striking distance of making the Big East tournament. (The Big East tournament is a single-elimination 4 team bracket). Creighton sits atop the league at 10-1, with three teams tied for 2nd (Butler, Marquette, Seton Hall at 8-3) with Xavier JUST outside at #5 with a 7-4 record. Xavier has a big opportunity this weekend with a match at Marquette. Creighton is #46 at RPI, and Xavier is #58. Creighton has a much better chance of an at-large bid, and if they keep playing well they should be able to squeeze in. Butler and Seton Hall, despite both beating Xavier once, are just too far behind in RPI terms. Seton Hall had a very weak OOC. Creighton has one match this week against Georgetown before a huge following week at Xavier and at Butler. If they win all three of those, their NCAA tournament chances are looking pretty good. Will be very interesting to see how the Big East plays out, as if Xavier beats Marquette this weekend, the Golden Eagles will be in trouble of even making the Big East tournament!
Conference USAC-USA has an 8-team tournament to determine the league's bid to the NCAA's. Western Kentucky is going to challenge for an at-large bid. With only five remaining Conference USA Matches (and none of them against league-leading 11-0 Texas San Antonio), it looks like Western Kentucky has a reasonable chance of finishing 27-5. They haven't lost to anybody that is a "bad" team, but they just haven't beat anyone besides Purdue and Lipscomb. If they win out in the C-USA and make the conference tournament championship, I think they'll get an at-large bid. If they lose in the semifinals or quarterfinals, I think they are out. I think if they lose any of their remaining regular season matches, they are out. UTSA, at RPI #94, has no chance of getting an at-large bid. All this talk about UTSA and WKU aside - my dark horse pick is Rice. They beat a good Marquette team. FIU, UAB, and MTSU are fighting for the 8th spot in the conference tournament, all three tied at #8 with a 3-7 record so far.
Mid-AmericanThe 8-team conference tournament will be hosted at undefeated in MAC-play Ohio (17-14, 10-0). The Bobcats registered a huge victory of Northern Illinois (16-8, 9-1). Ohio's four losses come to Hawaii, Texas A&M, Northwestern, and Arizona State. The latter two went to five-sets. Again, all bubble teams will be rooting for Ohio to win the MAC tournament. The Bobcats have six remaining matches, their toughest match remaining is a home-match against Miami of Ohio. Should Ohio finish the MAC undefeated and is upset in the conference tournament championship game, I think the Bobcats still will squeeze in. If they are upset in the quarterfinals or semifinals, I think they are out. Their situation is eerily similar to Western Kentucky.
Missouri ValleyAnd, eerily similar to Ohio and Western Kentucky is the situation of Illinois State. The MVC features a six-team tournament. The top 5 are pretty much set, whereas the sixth spot will be claimed by Southern Illinois, Loyola, or Evansville. Illinois State is 11-0 in the conference, 17-5 overall. They play five of their last seven at home, and on the road at Drake shouldn't be a challenge, so the Red Birds are looking good to finish out the MVC undefeated. They will certainly be tested at Northern Iowa, and they still have to play Missouri State (although they swept the Bears in Springfield). It's really weird how Illinois State, Ohio, and Western Kentucky have identical situations. Between the three, I think Illinois State has the weakest overall resume of the three because of their losses. Baylor, Xavier, Missouri, Lipscomb, and Oregon are their 5 losses. Ohio and Western Kentucky do not have a 100+RPI loss, but Illinois St. does in #105 Missouri.
Mountain WestColorado State leads the Mountain West with a 10-0 record. There is no MWC tournament, and it looks like Colorado St. is running away with the title. Only UNLV or Wyoming could possibly challenge, but they'd need lots of help. I WANT Wyoming to be a bubble candidate, but looking at their overall picture, I don't see it happening. Losses to Boise State and Utah State are just really going to hurt compared to other bubble teams. If Wyoming wins out beating Colorado St. finishing 26-5, they will definitely be in the mix. If they lose this week at UNLV - I say that will end the postseason hopes for the Cowboys/girls.
NortheastLIU Brooklyn remains undefeated in NEC play at 8-0. The four team NEC tournament will be played at the top-seed (99% chance it will be LIU Brooklyn or Robert Morris). Robert Morris, at 8-1, looks to challenge for a NEC title. Saint Francis, Central Connecticut, Bryant, and Fairleigh Dickinson look to fill in the 3 and 4 spots of the NEC tournament. LIU Brooklyn has victories over Michigan State, Western Kentucky, and Alabama, but the RPI of the NEC is going to kill them. Don't expect to see LIU Brooklyn in the NCAA's unless they win the NEC tournament.
PatriotAmerican, at 17-4 but 60s in RPI, just outside at-large chances. They are 9-0 in conference but the conference is very weak with many RPI anchors dragging them down. Top Four teams make the Patriot league tournament, and it looks like it will be Lehigh, Colgate, and Navy joining American. Should American win out but lose the conference tournament, they will probably not receive an at-large bid.
SummitTop-six teams advance to Summit tournament, and there is a jam between #4-#8. Oral Roberts (5-5). North Dakota St, IPFW, Omaha all at (4-6), and Western Illinois at (3-6). Denver leads at 8-1, South Dakota and IUPUI at 8-2. South Dakota, I thought might have a chance at an at-large bid, but even winning out and losing in the conference championship won't be good enough. This is a one-bid conference.
Sun BeltArkansas Little Rock is undefeated in conference at 12-0, closest teams are UT Arlington and Texas State at 10-3. Top 8 teams advance to Sun Belt Tournament. Top five look decided, but it looks like three of the following four will make it with one team left out (South Alabama (5-7), UL Lafayette (5-8), Georgia Southern (5-8), Georgia State (5-7)).
If UALR wins out but loses in the conference tournament, they are in a better position than American, but they are not as good candidates at Ohio, Western Kentucky, Lipscomb, and Illinois State. UALR needs to win their conference tournament to be in the NCAAs. Their RPI will actually be okay - but it's their overall resume that concerns me. Sure, their 4 losses are definitely to good teams, but their best victory is over Miami (Florida) who is probably not even an NCAA-team. Not good enough for the NCAA's.
WACMissouri Kansas City is having a great year, at 20-3 and 8-0 in the WAC. Unfortunately, the RPI is not going to help them out much. Even if they go undefeated in the WAC and are upset in the conference tournament, they will not make it into the NCAA's. Not enough support on the resume to justify them getting in. The WAC will feature a six-team tournament, and it looks like those six are determined. Grand Canyon could potentially be jumped over by Texas Pan-American, but its unlikely.
Big West Cal State Northridge was upset at home by UC Davis, all but throwing out hopes of hosting for the Matadors. They will likely be sent to USC (again) or UCLA. The Big West has no conference tournament, the regular season champion takes the auto bid. Long Beach State has the best chance with an 8-0 record and a 2 game lead over Hawai'i (6-2). CSUN, UC Irvine, and UC Davis have a very outside chance at (5-3). UCSB needed to beat Hawai'i and UC Davis needed to beat LBSU, but that didn't happen. Hawai'i is lucky to have a solid RPI, because otherwise looking at their body of work is not that impressive. Their best win is over RPI #40 Ohio. They are 1-5 against the Top 50 RPI, and 2-5 against the Top 100 RPI. That's not good. Long Beach State, should they not finish out as Big West champions, should still make the NCAA's unless they drop multiple matches to the lower tier of Big West teams. Long Beach State beat CSUN and Hawai'i already which should keep them in the NCAA's, and their worst loss of the season is to RPI #37 Loyola Marymount. Beach having a good season. I think the Big West will get all three teams in the NCAA's, they appear safe. (for now)
West Coast ConferenceThis is the conference that's going to get shafted this year. We'll start with #27 BYU, who is most likely going to be unseeded. They will be a very dangerous team in the NCAA's. San Diego, if you asked me a few weeks ago if they'll be in the NCAA tournament, I would be much more hesitant than I am now. The Toreros are playing MUCH better and just swept Loyola Marymount this weekend. Count on seeing San Diego in the NCAA's. Now, speaking of Loyola Marymount, concern has turned into worrying for the Lions, but I wouldn't panic just yet. The Lions are 5-5 in WCC after going 12-0 in the non-conference. With wins over #13 UCLA, #28 San Diego, and #31 Long Beach State, you can't really leave them out, can you? Well, it depends on how far they drop in RPI. They still have to play Gonzaga, Pacific, @ Santa Clara, @usf, and BYU to finish out the season. Pepperdine, Portland, and Saint Mary's should all be wins. If LMU drops just two more games, count them in the NCAA's. But I think three losses is realistic, and will put the Lions firmly on the bubble. I think their victories will be better than comparable bubble teams and the Lions will squeeze in. That's three bids right there. There are three times just outside bubble-range trying to creep in for a fourth bid. Santa Clara (47) was looking good but just lost to #57 Pacific which puts the Tigers back in the discussion. #58 Gonzaga's season may have been lost when the Bulldogs lost to Saint Mary's and Pacific in back to back five setters. Add in a loss to Furman and things are not looking good for Gonzaga. But they still have a chance to go on a run.. if they take 3 of 4 from Pacific, LMU, BYU, and San Diego, they will be a serious contender. Even if they split those matches though, I don't like their chances (because of RPI).
ACCFlorida State leads the ACC at 9-0, Duke and North Carolina right behind at 8-1 each. North Carolina and FSU look like locks to be seeded, Duke still with work to do. I like Pittsburgh (18-3, 6-2) much better than Miami (14-6, 7-2). Two of Pitt's three losses come in five-sets to North Carolina and Florida State. Their only other loss is to Colorado. Here's the problem. Pittsburgh's best win is over #51 Louisville. Miami's best victory is over #71 Seton Hall. There a lot of bubble teams out there that look better than that. Pittsburgh is #54 RPI, Miami is #42. I think if neither team picks up a top-50 victory, they will be out of the NCAA tournament. There are too many bubble teams with better victories. If it comes down to it, I like Pittsburgh over Miami. Miami lost to #129 Texas Christian. There is no conference tournament, so Miami has three key matches left: @north Carolina, @pittsburgh, and @florida State. If they don't win any of those, I say the Hurricanes are out. On the other hand, Pittsburgh hosts Miami and plays
duke and @louisville in their biggest regular season matches remaining. The only other contender from the ACC for an at-large is Louisville. Louisville beat Arizona State but lost to #116 Boston College. If Louisville can't pick up a victory at Miami, they'll have a chance in their last three season games. They host Duke, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh to close out the season. If they lose all four of those games, count Louisville OUT.
Big TenThe Big Ten may have four seeded teams, with Wisconsin, Penn St, Nebraska, and Illinois. Maybe Ohio State could squeeze in but unlikely. They picked up a couple big wins against the Michigans this weekend. Purdue's win over Ohio State was big for their at-large hopes, and because of that match, along with holding off Northwestern's upset bids, makes Purdue much more comfortable. They, in my opinion, have a distance between them and the four other Big Ten Teams trying to get an at-large. There's a cluster in the low-40's, high 30's between Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Northwestern has lost six straight, and seven of their last 8. Their only win in that span is over Minnesota. If they drop both matches to the Michigan's this weekend, I think Northwestern is in deep trouble to make the tournament. Their five-set loss to Indiana hurt them. I am not sure Michigan is going to finish above .500. I think Michigan State will make the tournament, but they have a rough stretch over their next 5 (Illinois, Northwestern, Minny, Wisconsin, @nebraska). Minnesota has wins over Iowa State and Ohio State, but I don't know if that will be enough for them to make the NCAA's. They have 7 road games remaining, 3 at home. Their 3 at home are winnable, against Northwestern, Purdue, and Indiana. At Maryland should also be a win. If they take care of business and can beat a Michigan team along with Purdue once or Ohio State, I think the Golden Gophers will get in. The Big 12 is going to be a really tight race for at-large bids.
Big 12The Big 12 has five bids coming in, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and of course Texas. The Question is whether or not Baylor can squeak in the discussion. They just beat Iowa State, which is really good for their hopes. However, my concern is that they lost to RPI #254 Portland. That's a bad loss that I'm not sure any other bubble team has (to a 200+RPI team). Baylor's inconsistency I think will keep them out of the NCAA's again. They lost to Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia, LSU (twice), UTSA, and Wichita State. Those are games they arguably should have won and had they won their RPI would be in a better range and I think Baylor would be pretty safe. Unfortunately, they're going to have to pull some magic. They still have chances, they play at Texas, at Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma and Kansas State. If they take two or three of those and win their other matches, they could be in the discussion. But I'm not seeing it happen for Baylor -- too inconsistent. Texas will be seeded, and Kansas / Kansas State are right there in RPI range to get a seed at 17 and 18.
SECSEC RPI love is putting Kentucky at #9. Shame. They and Florida will probably be seeded. Texas A&M will be in the tournament, not hosting. LSU has won seven straight, including a victory over Kentucky. They have a rather easy finish to the season, their toughest match remaining is at Texas A&M. LSU is safely in the NCAA's for the SEC's 4th bid. Looks like it's going to be hard to exclude Alabama, whose worst loss is to RPI #60 LIU Brooklyn. They have a chance to seal the deal with beating Texas A&M or Florida in their next two matches. Even if they lose both, I think they have to suffer a couple major upsets to be excluded from the NCAA's. Count on Alabama in for a 5th bid SEC. Ole Miss continues to lose, falling to LSU and Tennessee via a sweep. Despite beating Alabama, I don't think Ole Miss is going to make it in. But they have chances to solidify their case, they still play Texas A&M (twice), Kentucky, and Florida. I'd hate to see six bids from the SEC because I'm not sure they deserve it, but if Ole Miss pulls off some upsets, it's very possible.
PAC-12
Last but certainly not least is the Pac-12. Stanford, Washington, and Oregon look like the only three definite seeds. Arizona, USC, and UCLA look like they will challenge to be seeded. I think they will get 5 seeds. USC/Arizona only meet once this season. Arizona beat UCLA in their only meeting. There is a chance there will be six seeds, depending on how things play out. Arizona State, Colorado, and Oregon State all look comfortable to get at-large bids as of now to make that nine bids from the Pac-12. Utah was already questionable at RPI #49, but losing to Washington State is not going to help. I'm not sure Utah is even going to be eligible, they need four wins to get there. They play @cal, vs. Colorado, vs. Washington State in their best chances to win, and those aren't even given wins. Oregon State should get in unless they go on a wild losing streak, and the same follows for Colorado. I can't see Arizona State collapsing either. Nine teams from the Pac-12 it looks like!
