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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 12:53:44 GMT -5
It could very well affect seeds or placement. It will be somewhat difficult for the selection committee to seed a 1-loss Stanford higher than a 2-loss Washington if Washington crushes them just a few days before the selections are announced. A close win on Washington's home court could be easily waved away, but a big margin of victory would make it more difficult to ignore. Head-to-head is one of the criteria the committee is specifically instructed to use. I think it'll be pretty easy to seed a 1-loss Stanford higher than a 2-loss Washington, even if UW crushes them. H2H is only one of the primary criteria and would be a factor if they were close, but I don't think they'll be that close. Stanford will still be #1 RPI (vs 4 v UW), have 3 more Top 25 and 7 more Top 50 wins, a higher SOS, have a better record outright and against common opponents, and have better losses. What that match'll do is make FSU v UW interesting for #3. The B1G will be similar, as Penn St. crushed Wisconsin, but the Badgers will still be seeded higher. I suppose. I still think the committee may struggle with this, though, given the match happens just days before the seedings are announced. We have seen in the past where late results like this resulted in the committee obviously switching seeds around. H2H is only one criteria, but it's one that the committee seems to give quite a bit of authority too, especially late in the season. Of course, if Stanford wins (or even loses a close match), it won't be a factor.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 12:55:02 GMT -5
I know this match is for bragging rights in PAC between the Volleytalk PAC fans, but if Stanford gets through the altitude matches unscathed I don't think it would be a bad outcome for them if they lost the UW match. It would take pressure off being undefeated going into the NCAA and I see that as a benefit. Stanford has already played at Utah and Colorado. The matches this week are at Stanford.
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Post by Mocha on Nov 21, 2014 12:59:48 GMT -5
I'm going to miss heckling Mary Ellen Luck the most, for the past four years I would yell at the Stanford bench and tell her she only got the scholarship because of her brother.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 21, 2014 13:03:20 GMT -5
I think it'll be pretty easy to seed a 1-loss Stanford higher than a 2-loss Washington, even if UW crushes them. H2H is only one of the primary criteria and would be a factor if they were close, but I don't think they'll be that close. Stanford will still be #1 RPI (vs 4 v UW), have 3 more Top 25 and 7 more Top 50 wins, a higher SOS, have a better record outright and against common opponents, and have better losses. What that match'll do is make FSU v UW interesting for #3. The B1G will be similar, as Penn St. crushed Wisconsin, but the Badgers will still be seeded higher. I suppose. I still think the committee may struggle with this, though, given the match happens just days before the seedings are announced. We have seen in the past where late results like this resulted in the committee obviously switching seeds around. H2H is only one criteria, but it's one that the committee seems to give quite a bit of authority too, especially late in the season. Of course, if Stanford wins (or even loses a close match), it won't be a factor. H2H is important, but I just think Stanford is so far above the field for the #1 seed that one H2H won't change that. Plus, then they'd have to open back up the entire top seed line - because then they'd have to reevaluate vs FSU and Texas. I think they'll already be pretty settled on that part of the bracket - I could see this being decided before the match and the Committee saying if UW wins they'll flipflop UW/FSU for 3/4 (and Wisky/UNC for 5/6 to keep the Badgers in MPLS) and moving on to more pressing business.
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Post by vbprisoner on Nov 21, 2014 13:17:45 GMT -5
I know this match is for bragging rights in PAC between the Volleytalk PAC fans, but if Stanford gets through the altitude matches unscathed I don't think it would be a bad outcome for them if they lost the UW match. It would take pressure off being undefeated going into the NCAA and I see that as a benefit. Stanford has already played at Utah and Colorado. The matches this week are at Stanford. Yeah, I misread that. Thanks for correcting, but I still think a Stanford loss would not be a bad thing even if it happened against Colorado and then they beat UW. Having that pressure of an undefeated season off their back would be a benefit.
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Post by volleyfan24 on Nov 23, 2014 16:53:08 GMT -5
This is the most anticipated match of the year. It hasn't lost any intrigue to me even with a 2 loss Washington. I will be missing guys night and poker for this so it better be good. I am excited Stanford after looking vulnerable against the Arizona schools has rolled off 4 straight sweeps against ranked teams. I have to favor Stanford at this point and unfortunate Jones is down for Washington.
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Post by alwayslearning on Nov 23, 2014 17:36:38 GMT -5
Why Stanford Will Sweep UW on Wednesday
Ball control is the key: Stanford relies on the triumvirate of Burgess, Gilbert, and Howard to receive serve. Everything starts here. The difference between Stanford’s passing and UW’s passing is that Stanford is a little more consistent in avoiding really bad passes or outright shanks, and Stanford is significantly better at putting passes right on the money. Right on the money means that Madi Bugg has free rein and that means trouble for UW. Bugg is simply too good and too deceptive, with too many options, when she gets a good pass. I haven’t seen a lot of Stanford’s matches this year, but they appear to be one of the best, if not the best, passing team in the country.
Stanford’s middles are superior: When the Cardinal gets good passing, whether in serve receive or transition D, there is no better middle tandem in the country than Inky and Lutz. They are the #3 (Lutz) and #5 (Ajanaku) hitters in the country by percentage. Bugg has a great connection with both and it’s scary to think about how good Lutz is going to be in the next three years. Inky is simply the quickest, most athletic middle in the college game. Stanford should go to their middle attack early and often. Here’s an interesting stat from the Pac 12 website as of today: Inky and Lutz have 1101 total attempts for the season; Wade and Sybeldon have 633. This is a gigantic disparity and reflects both superior passing and a superior middle attack.
Team defense will keep rallies going: With the Cardinal, it’s all about passing and defense. Gilbert is outstanding in transition D (see Arizona at Maples) and will be able to absorb hit after hit from Vansant. Burgess and Howard are two of the best defensive six-rotation outsides you will find. The quality of Stanford’s digging machine will be tested by the Huskies but the longer the Cardinal can extend rallies, the more likely they will be to win points. Eventually, Bugg (or Inky!) will set one of those good digs for a kill.
Madi Bugg: Bugg is easily the best setter in the Pac 12. She’s smooth, has great hands, and usually makes good decisions. She can set many types of balls, wins jousts, dumps at the right time, and is very deceptive. The Cardinal enjoys a big advantage at the setter position in this match.
Stanford owns crunch time: The Cardinal have had their share of scares this year but, interestingly, those five-setters haven’t been all that close in the fifth set. Whether it’s the fifth set against Arizona or ASU, or down late in a close set at USC, Stanford does not seem to crack. Burgess can be the inspirational, clutch player they need when the going gets tough and she’s been playing her best volleyball of the season these last few weeks. Stanford just needs the slightest opening from the other team, and then their quality and balance shines through.
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Post by alwayslearning on Nov 23, 2014 17:38:21 GMT -5
Why UW Will Sweep Stanford on Wednesday
UW’s serving will pressure Stanford: This is perhaps UW’s most important advantage when matching up with Stanford. UW typically fields a strong serving team and this year is no exception. Stanford, on the other hand, is merely adequate, especially for the #1 team in the country. I’ve got to think that Stanford just does not see the number of quality serves on a day-to-day basis in practice that UW does. While Stanford is generally a good passing team, they struggle when they do not pass well, and bad passing has plagued them in a few (not many) matches this year. UW will put as much pressure as they can on Stanford’s receivers. Strickland’s big topspin serve gets the publicity, and Cassie can string up a run of points, but she can be very inconsistent. Other UW servers – especially Wade, Vansant, and Scambray – may be more important in this match. UW will likely target both Howard and Gilbert. I love Gilbert’s defense, and her passing is generally very good, but on this team she’s the most inconsistent in serve receive. Stay away from Burgess, the Cardinal’s best passer. If UW can just do one thing – significantly cut down on Bugg’s opportunities to set her middles in the serve receive game – they will be in a strong position to take this match.
UW’s ball handling will be good enough: The Huskies’ serve receive need not be perfect (and it won’t be) but it does need to very good. Stanford can probably hurt UW most by mixing up short and long serves, but as long as UW remains focused, they should be able to handle the Cardinal serve. Transition defense was a serious vulnerability early in the season but Strickland, Vansant, and Scambray have all upped their games, particularly Strickland. Will it be as good as Stanford’s? Probably not. Does it need to be? Probably not. Stanford can outdig UW and still lose this game (see UW v. UW).
If the Huskies can control the ball so that their setters are not under duress, they should enjoy an advantage at the pins. Vansant just needs to have a good Vansant game, which is to say a great game by almost anyone else’s standards. I do think UW’s right side must have a strong game if the Huskies are to prevail. Nelson and Jones are more than capable – it’s a function of getting hittable balls. The middle attack would be a bonus at this point.
I think it’s unlikely that Crissy Jones will be available due to her recent ankle injury. That’s too bad because she really brings a strong blocking presence and has become an efficient terminator. But the Huskies don’t lose much with Courtney Schwan, who has had two very nice games against the Arizonas since Jones went down. Scambray is the X factor. She has so many shots in her toolbox, it can be difficult to figure out how to defend her. On the other hand, her hitting has tailed off quite a bit in the last few weeks and it seems that she’s become more tentative. If both Scambray and Vansant have good games, the Huskies will be hard to stop.
Starting strong: UW has struggled with slow starts, losing first sets to Wisconsin, Cal, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. This finally caught up with them in Boulder and Salt Lake City. Vansant in particular has been susceptible to slow starts. I’m less familiar with Stanford, but from what I gather, the Cardinal generally start out strong but are prone to stepping off the gas during a second set or third set and have let some teams back into matches that should have been closed out (see ASU). If the Huskies win the first set, they win this match.
Finishing: We thought the Huskies were invincible in crunch time until their recent trip to the mountains. I still like their chances at home when sets go down to the wire or if this goes five. Let’s call Colorado and Utah an aberration.
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Post by alwayslearning on Nov 23, 2014 17:39:07 GMT -5
Who do I think will really win this match? Objectively, Stanford has to be favored. Subjectively, I’m a Husky fan. Huskies in 4.
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Post by volleyfan24 on Nov 23, 2014 17:53:22 GMT -5
I think neither team will sweep what I would love to see is a tight competitive 5 setter. I think a Stanford sweep or UW sweep would be disastrous to confidence to either team going into the tournament. My head says Stanford but this is Vansants last match at home in the regular season so she could turn up the heat. I think a key will be UW getting Sybeldon and Wade going. If Stanford blockers can camp on their right it will be disastrous for UW.
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Post by jgrout on Nov 23, 2014 17:54:26 GMT -5
I'm going to miss heckling Mary Ellen Luck the most, for the past four years I would yell at the Stanford bench and tell her she only got the scholarship because of her brother. She had a scholarship? I always assumed that she was an invited walk-on.
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Post by Sbilo on Nov 23, 2014 20:04:56 GMT -5
Stanford in 5 very close sets. I remembered Merete Lutz in one of her interviews she said, "We don't have to lose in order to win." I hate excuses of some people when they say, "the loss was a good wake up call..blah blah". As good as UW and Vansant is, the confidence that Stanford has over the past 28 games, winning all those is just unbelievable. Go Card!
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Post by Cruz'n on Nov 23, 2014 20:05:17 GMT -5
Three days away. Can't wait!
I hope Brittany brings her A-game. Can pretty much count on the rest of the Card to play at their highest level. Just don't want to see Brittany resort to 90% dinking after getting blocked; for she will surely get blocked.
Also want Madi to find her rhythm with Inky early on. If these things happen, it will be a fun, high quality match. These rare matches are what it's all about!
Needless to say, Washington at home will be running on all cylinders. UW can blow people out in Seattle, but not get blown out. If Stanford wins, it will be a tight, close match.
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Post by sportsfun on Nov 23, 2014 21:34:13 GMT -5
Three days away. Can't wait! I hope Brittany brings her A-game. Can pretty much count on the rest of the Card to play at their highest level. Just don't want to see Brittany resort to 90% dinking after getting blocked; for she will surely get blocked. Also want Madi to find her rhythm with Inky early on. If these things happen, it will be a fun, high quality match. These rare matches are what it's all about! Needless to say, Washington at home will be running on all cylinders. UW can blow people out in Seattle, but not get blown out. If Stanford wins, it will be a tight, close match. I'm not really sure Howard has much of an A game offensively this season. She has hit below .200 in nine conference matches and has hit .250 or above in four conference matches, 2x Oregon State, 1x ASU, and the recent very impressive showing against UCLA. Howard brings a very solid block and backcourt defense but if you're hoping for a strong offensive showing it would be a bit of an anomaly this season. One of Boukather's many strengths is that she rarely caves under pressure and has often produced a kill(s) at crucial moments. I'm looking for her to continue the trend and for Burgess to come on strong. Unless Washington has an off night from the service line Stanford is going to have to deviate from their season pattern and two pin hitters are going to have to be on. Stanford can't be at the mercy of getting the ball to their middles against such a strong serving team.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 21:50:26 GMT -5
Three days away. Can't wait! I hope Brittany brings her A-game. Can pretty much count on the rest of the Card to play at their highest level. Just don't want to see Brittany resort to 90% dinking after getting blocked; for she will surely get blocked. Also want Madi to find her rhythm with Inky early on. If these things happen, it will be a fun, high quality match. These rare matches are what it's all about! Needless to say, Washington at home will be running on all cylinders. UW can blow people out in Seattle, but not get blown out. If Stanford wins, it will be a tight, close match. I'm not really sure Howard has much of an A game offensively this season. She has hit below .200 in nine conference matches and has hit .250 or above in four conference matches, 2x Oregon State, 1x ASU, and the recent very impressive showing against UCLA. Howard brings a very solid block and backcourt defense but if you're hoping for a strong offensive showing it would be a bit of an anomaly this season. One of Boukather's many strengths is that she rarely caves under pressure and has often produced a kill(s) at crucial moments. I'm looking for her to continue the trend and for Burgess to come on strong. Unless Washington has an off night from the service line Stanford is going to have to deviate from their season pattern and two pin hitters are going to have to be on. Stanford can't be at the mercy of getting the ball to their middles against such a strong serving team. Give it a break, Cardinal "fans." The aphorism "a chain is only as strong as its weakest link" is so silly in VB context, as in so many other, as it does not take into account anything other than physical properties, such as those that involve the mental processes. There are many good reasons BH has been starting every match and will continue to do so. Success is not determined or measured by individual statistics but is much more correlated with team statistics. BH is crucial to the team's efforts and in so many ways is undervalued by fans and observers, but not by teammates or coaches (ours and theirs).
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