Post by trojansc on Nov 17, 2014 19:45:14 GMT -5
Your Complete guide to the 2014 NCAA tournament. (updated on 11/22) Conference breakdown as of 11/22. RPI Rankings are as of 11/17. All 64 projected bids listed below.
Appreciation to Rich Kern and bluepenquin for RPI projections, as well as to other posters from small-conferences like the Big East, Missouri Valley, A-SUN, etc. who consistently post on the forum to keep me informed.
America East (NEW HAMPSHIRE)
In the tournament, Albany got revenge on Binghamton. After Binghamton beat Albany twice in the regular season, the Great Danes were able to finally get the win and beat the #2 seed. That set them up with reigning 2013 AM-East Champion New Hampshire for the 2014 America East Championship. New Hampshire took care of business in 4 sets as Albany's season comes to an end. New Hampshire hopes to get a better draw than last season, when they were sent to #6 Southern California for the first round of the NCAA's.
Champions: New Hampshire
Atlantic 10
No surprises here in the A-10, it will be #1 Dayton and #2 George Washington in the Championship. #2 GW is playing without its leading OH, but I still think they will pose a threat to Dayton.
Tournament Bracket (hosted by Dayton)
Sunday, November 23 Championship
Match 5: #1 Dayton vs. #2 George Washington
Big Sky
Northern Colorado is the only team to beat Idaho State this season, and they'll have a chance tonight to upset the Bengals and advance to the NCAA tournament. Idaho St is the reigning 2013 Big Sky Champion, and took a set of Hawaii in the NCAA's last year. Northern Colorado has the odds stacked against them - they will have to do it on Idaho State's home floor.
Northern Colorado is up 2 sets to None over Idaho State right now! (upd: And they finish it out! Northern Colorado beats Idaho State, at ISU for the second time this season)
Champions: Northern Colorado
Big South
Wow. Liberty just absolutely falls apart at the end of the season. Looking to be the #1 seed and regular season Big South Champion, they fall apart and actually get bounced in the Quarterfinals of their conference tournament. Would have been nice to see Jade Vorster (Hawaii transfer) back in the NCAAs. But no disrespect to a team I cautioned to watch out for -- #6 High Point. They SWEPT Liberty. High Point eventually lost to host- #2 Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina will try to upset Radford and advance to the NCAA tournament.
Championship Sunday, November 22nd
Match #5 #1 Radford at #2 Coastal Carolina (2:00pm)
Colonial
James Madison upset Towson, but then lost to Hofstra. It will be #1 Charleston vs. #2 Hofstra
Sunday, November 23rd
3:00 p.m. #2 Hofstra at #1 College of Charleston (3pm)
Horizon
No real surprises here, #1 Oakland vs. #2 Milwaukee. Milwaukee the 2013 Horizon League Champions
Sunday, Nov. 23
2:00 p.m. – #2 Milwaukee at #1 Oakland
Ivy
Yale couldn't beat Harvard in two meetings earlier this season, and if Harvard hadn't lost to two other Ivy League teams, the Crimson would be in the NCAA's. But a regular season tie forced a tie-break Ivy playoff match at Harvard. Yale finally got things to go their way as they swept Harvard. Yale is BACK, yet again, in the NCAA.s
Champions: Yale
Metro Atlantic
No upsets on the first day of the MAAC Tournament, but I warned those to watch out for Niagra. The purple eagles were down 0-2 to Manhattan, but they rallied back only to unfortunately lose the 5th set (13-15) to #3 Manhattan. The other team that deserves a shotout from the MAAC is #8 seed Iona. Iona won its opening match of the tournament against #9 Saint Peters, but had to play another match just a few hours later against the #1 seed Marist. Iona pushed Marist to the brink, only to lose in 5 sets.
Catrina Warren posted 30 kills on 84 swings and 42 digs over two games (3-0 win, 2-3 loss to #1 Marist)
In the Finals, it was #2 Siena who pulled the upset over #1 Marist. The Saints grab the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament!
Champions: Siena
Mid Eastern
One of the nations top scorers over the past couple years, Vendula Strakova has led Hampton back to the MEAC Championship and will try to help the Pirates to a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23 - CHAMPIONSHIP
1200 p.m. Hampton vs. Howard
Ohio Valley
No major upsets here, #1 Murray State sweeps #2 Belmont in the Championship to advance to the NCAA Tournament.
Champions: Murray State
Southern
No. 7 Chattanooga almost pulled a major upset over No.2 Samford, but fell in the 5th set.
My dark-horse pick #6 Mercer jumped out to a 2 sets to none over host #3 UNC Greensoboro, but UNCG pushed the match to five sets. In the fifth set, Mercer was down 2-7, but STORMED back to tie the game at 10 all. Only to see #3 UNCG win the match 15-12 in 5 sets.
#1 Furman took care of business and will play #5 Western Carolina who advances to the semifinals.
Semifinals // Sunday, November 23 // Fleming Gym // UNCG // Greensboro, N.C.
2:00 p.m. No. 5 Western Carolina vs. No. 1 Furman
4:30 p.m. No. 2 Samford vs. No 3. UNCG
Championship Finals // Monday, November 24 // Fleming Gym // UNCG // Greensboro, N.C.
6:00 p.m. (Furman/WCU) vs. (UNCG/Samford) ESPN3
Southland
I thought it would be #3 Texas A&M Corpus Christi who would make some noise in the Southland Tournament. They were swept by #2 Central Arkansas. The major upset of the tournament came when #5 Northwestern State pulled off the stunner against Undefeated in Southland regular season play #1 Stephen F. Austin. The tournament was hosted by Northwestern State, so not a huge surprise, but still you had to favor Stephen F. Austin.
It will be a re-match of the 2013 Southland Conference Tournament Championship, #2 Central Arkansas at #5 Northwestern State. The Demons lost in 5 sets last season, after leading the Sugar Bears two sets to none!
Sunday, November 22nd (Championship)
2:00pm #2 Central Arkansas at #5 Northwestern State
SWAC
The SWAC bloodbath continues Sunday, in which Alabama State and UAPB will need to win four matches in order to advance to the NCAA Tournament. (That HAS to be an NCAA-record).. Jackson State and Southern University are in the winners bracket.
SWAC Bracket
American Athletic Conference
There's a big match on Sunday: Temple at Southern Methodist. Temple's at-large chances may have been crushed with a really tough 5-set loss at Tulsa this weekend. That victory keeps Tulsa alive in an at-large discussion. SMU is firmly on the bubble, and a loss to Temple is going to hurt their chances.
The at-large bid is all but gift-wrapped for Central Florida. UCF only has to beat one of the following three: Houston, Cincinatti, and Memphis. I could see them losing to Memphis, but not to both Cincinatti and Houston.
That leaves the only real question for the conference is, is this a one-bid conference? Do Temple, SMU, and Tulsa have any chance? Should they be in consideration? I will update this discussion and RPI values on Monday, which should paint a clearer picture. I think Temple was really hot - but they needed victories over both Tulsa and SMU to stay in consideration. SMU has a better chance for an at-large, and a win tomorrow vs. Temple and a win next week against Tulsa, they may have a really good shot at an at-large. But the committee has a lot of decent bubble teams to look at this year.
Atlantic Sun
UPSET!!! #3 Jacksonville advances to the NCAA Tournament with a stunning upset over #1 Lipscomb!
We'll see where they end up in RPI, and I'll post their fate on Monday.
Big East
Big East Tournament Bracket set:
#1 Creighton vs. #4 Xavier
#2 Marquette vs. #3 Seton Hall
Butler put together a nice season, but it comes to an end this weekend. Tough to chew on for Butler.
Creighton and Marquette are locks to the NCAA tournament.
Conference USA
UTSA was undefeated in conference play until late in the season, but two late-season losses end their season. They lost to North Texas in one of the last C-USA games, and then my dark-horse pick #4 Rice pulled the upset over UTSA to advance to the Championship.
Don't write off Rice - they may upset Western Kentucky and advance to the NCAA Tournament, which will put WKU on the bubble!
Championship - Sunday, November 23
No. 2 Western Kentucky vs. #4 Rice
Mid-American
Weird MAC Format, double-byes for the top two seeds. Championship on Monday. Ohio is the favorite. Lipscomb lost their conference tournament, putting immense pressure on the other 4 small conference at-large hopefuls should they lose (WKU, Ohio, Illinois St., UALR)
2014 MAC Tournament Bracket
Missouri Valley
Illinois State finishes the MVC undefeated, they still may need to win the conference tournament next weekend to advance to the NCAA's. Missouri State nearly upset Illinois State after leading 2 sets to none, but couldn't seal the deal. For that, Missouri St. is the dark-horse for the 2014 MVC Tournament.
Mountain West
Colorado St. clinches the MWC title, and UNLV is down 0-2 to Boise State right now (ouch). Wyoming could be the only other at-large potential candidate, but there is no realistic way they squeeze in the NCAA's (in my opinion).
Northeast
No Surprise here, it will be LIU Broolyn vs. Robert Morris for the title.
LIU Brooklyn ran through the NEC, they went undefeated, and were only pushed to five-sets once (in a strange home match vs. Bryant which they were up 2-0 and nearly blew the match. Count on LIU Brooklyn to be back in the NCAA tournament. But a Robert Morris upset is not out of the question.
Northeast Volleyball Tournament
Patriot
American finished 15-1 and is the #1 seed, while Lehigh finished 14-2 as the #2 seed. American lost to Lehigh in five sets on the last regular season game of the Patriot League, expect a rematch in the Championship. I'm going to lean American. One-bid conference, not a terrible season for American.
(and it happens, it will be American vs. Lehigh for the conference title!)
Patriot Volleyball Tournament
Summit
Dark-Horse is #3 South Dakota... #1 Denver put together a nice-season.
Sunday, Nov. 23
4 p.m. – Championship Match: (2) IUPUI vs. (1) Denver
Sun Belt
UALR is 19-0 in the Sun Belt and has won 20 straight matches. Tournament bracket not yet set, but count on UALR as Champions. Arkansas State, Texas State, or UT Arlington may be one of the teams that could pull a potential upset over UALR. There will be 8-teams in the tournament.
Excerpt from the sunbelt website: www.sunbeltsports.org/news/2014/11/17/WVB_1117143408.aspx
WAC
Cal State Bakersfield wins the 2014 WAC tournament and advances to the NCAA Tournament!
Shoutout for Seattle who rallied from a 5th-set 10-14 deficit to beat No. 4 Utah Valley, then rallied to beat No. 1 UMKC in 5 sets. Their luck ran out as they were swept by host CSUB.
2014 WAC Tournament (pdf)
Big West
THE BEACH! Gotta root for LBSU as they are putting together a great season. I'm really interested to see what the committee does with them.
Hawaii and CSUN look to be just inside the bubble, but I don't know how comfortable I'd be. Just keep winning. Will post more later.
West Coast Conference
WCC Drama because well.. that's just how it is (Every season).
BYU is the only team who you can say for 100% is in the NCAA Tournament.
If LMU does not make it into the NCAA Tournament, I will probably get banned from VolleyTalk.
Santa Clara is in trouble now, because of two losses: Pepperdine and San Francisco.
San Diego handled business against the Northwest schools, and if they beat Saint Mary's, the Toreros should be IN the NCAA tournament.
The team that's probably going to finish 2nd place in the WCC, Pacific, may not make the NCAA tournament. Pacific, in my opinion, SHOULD be an NCAA-Tournament team. If they win at San Francisco, how can you leave them out. 24-7 (13-5 WCC).. Top-50 Wins: LMU(x2), Santa Clara, UALR. Losses: BYU(x2), USC, San Diego (x2), Santa Clara, Oregon State. (All NCAA teams, unless USD/SCU don't get in)
We'll see what the RPI is on Monday, and I will add in more information.
ACC
I don't even want to talk about Miami right now, because the bubble picture is getting even more complicated. Winning against Boston College and Georgia Tech may put Miami in the NCAA Tournament. A win against FSU should definitely put Miami in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina should end up winning the ACC - unless Duke pulls the upset.
Pittsburgh is also challenging for an at-large bid, They probably need to win out to be in conisderation. They play Louisville, Virginia, and Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech is also on the bubble, they beat Pittsburgh twice. They also beat Illinois and Duke. If Virginia Tech wins its last two games, I think you have to consider them because of their victories. They are better than a lot of other bubble teams.
Virginia is the last ACC-contender, but I think the weakest. Pittsburgh vs. Virginia may determine who is a better bubble contender, but right now I don't think either of them are going to get in.
Big Ten
Michigan State's win over Northwestern essentially eliminates Northwestern. A victory over Penn State would maybe put them in consideration, but is that possible?
Sparty is not safe though. They still play Purdue and Iowa, and I think they need to win both to get in.
Uh oh, Minnesota SWEEPS Purdue. If they beat Ohio State, the Golden Gophers I think are in the NCAA Tournament. Even if they lose, I think they still have a chance. Hmmmmmm
Purdue should still be ok, but a loss to Michigan State could put them on the bubble. They will be 4-6 in their last 10 if they lose to Wisconsin, and those 4 wins come against Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, and Minnesota (no NCAA tournament teams unless Minny gets in) I still think Purdue should b ok...
Michigan is ineligible for the NCAA tournament.
It's going to be an interesting finish in the B1G!
Big 12
Baylor is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Texas wins the auto-bid. Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma are at-large bids. Only question is who gets a seed?
SEC
Florida wins the SEC. LSU is still on the bubble. They have to play South Carolina and Auburn, and if they lose one of those, I think they are in trouble. If they lose both, LSU should be OUT.
PAC-12
Southern California is in big trouble. The Women of Troy only needed one victory out of their last six matches, but losses to Stanford, Cal, and now Oregon State have made things questionable for Troy. I think they are going to beat Oregon, Arizona, or UCLA and squeeze into the NCAA's. If they don't, I have no sympathy. A really poor finish to the season and the first time in the Mick Haley era that USC is in trouble to make the NCAA Tournament. USC should get in.
The big question is still will the Pac get 12 bids? More updates to come on Monday.
****No Updates Below, the post below is as of results at 11/17.. will update in new-post Monday****
32 Automatic Qualifiers (11/17 RPI ranking in parentheses)
(Conference Breakdown & Standings at bottom of page)
ACC – North Carolina (5)
America East – New Hampshire (217)
AAC –UCF (29)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (77)
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb (32)
Big 10 – Wisconsin (6)
Big 12 – Texas (2)
Big East – Marquette (26)
Big Sky – Idaho State (109)
Big South – Radford (98)
Big West – Long Beach State (23)
Colonial – Hofstra (104)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (42)
Horizon – Oakland (119)
Ivy – Harvard (69)
MAAC – Marist (151)
MAC – Ohio (39)
MEAC – Hampton (177)
MVC – Illinois State (44)
MWC – Colorado State (12)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (64)
OVC – Murray State (134)
Pac-12 – Stanford (1)
Patriot – American (86)
SEC – Florida (7)
SoCon – Samford (146)
Southland – Stephen F. Austin (132)
Summit – Denver (90)
Sun Belt – UALR (41)
SWAC – Alabama State (287)
WAC – UMKC (88)
WCC – BYU (21)
32 At-Large Bids
(sorted in order of RPI)
Green teams are locks (or everything but locks) to NCAA tournament.
Blue teams have eligibility issues.
Orange teams are on the bubble, but have more breathing room than Yellow teams.
Yellow teams are firmly on the bubble and every game is vital.
Florida State (3)
Washington (4)
Oregon (8)
Illinois (9)
Penn State (10)
Nebraska (11)
Kentucky (13)
Arizona (14)
Iowa State (15)
Kansas (16)
UCLA (17)
Kansas State (18)
Texas A&M (19)
Southern California (20) - (.500 eligibility concern)
Duke (22)
Colorado (24)
Oklahoma (25)
Miami-FL (27)
Alabama (28)
UCF (29)
Hawaii (30)
Creighton (31)
Ohio State (33)
Loyola Marymount (34)
Oregon State (35)
Arizona State (36)
Cal St. Northridge (37)
LSU (38)
Utah (40)
San Diego (43)
Santa Clara (45)
Purdue (47)
As you can see, I nearly went strictly by RPI. Not because I believe the RPI is going to be the sole determiner, but with a combination of all the factors and overall body of works of each team, I think if the bracket was pulled today the committee would go strictly by RPI, but leaving Southern Methodist out (and maybe Miami-FL). Do I think it's going to happen? It's possible - but probably not. I'm really concerned with Lipscomb stealing a bid if they are upset. The other four could all miss out (Western Kentucky, UALR, Illinois State, Ohio)
I didn't have the cojones to leave Miami out. Maybe next week, we'll see. Only two more full weeks of play until all matches have concluded.
Other serious at-large contenders:
(46) Southern Methodist - SMU has chances to win. If they win out, including beating Temple and Tulsa, they may have a chance for a berth. But even then, it is not guaranteed. Watch out for both Temple and Tulsa, who have been playing well and recently both beat UCF, to both beat SMU, and put them in a better position for a bid than SMU.
(48) Michigan - Big Blue needs to get eligible. If they finish 15-15, I'll all but guarantee a berth for the Wolverines.
(49) Michigan State - State needs to finish strong. I'd like to see them win out, to be a right on the bubble for an at-large bid. They may even knock Purdue out!
(50) Virginia Tech - Can the Hokies be a contender if they are eligible? Well, they've certainly got some wins, but the amount of losses are hurting. It'd be amazing to see how high their RPI would go if they won all of the games against lower ranked RPI teams..
(51) Minnesota - Not winning a game against a top-tier B1G team would have been okay if their RPI was higher, but since they have remaining matches at weaker teams, I think Minnesota is going to end up OUT of the NCAA tournament.
(52) Xavier - The Musketeers saved their postseason hopes with a win at Butler. Had they lost, they would not have made the Big East tournament, or the NCAA tournament. They still have to win the Big East tournament to make an NCAA appearance, I think. Even an upset over Creighton in the B-East Semifinals shouldn't be enough for an at-large bid, they'll have to win a conference tournament. But it's seriously Déjà vu for Xavier, this is the THIRD straight year they are probably going to finish with an RPI in the mid-50's, just outside the NCAA tournament. Sad case. I believe the last two years their season ended at the hands of Marquette.
(53) Tulsa - Tulsa registered a major upset over UCF to get them back on the bubble. This is the same team that started 0-4 in AAC play. Since then, they are 10-1 in conference. They'll meet Temple this week. If Temple beats Tulsa, I think Tulsa's at-large chances are over, even if they win-out including beating Southern Methodist.
(54) Pittsburgh - Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh (again). Tech has beaten Pittsburgh twice in the past three weeks. Ouch. How can you put Pitt in over the Hokies (if the Hokies even finish eligible, that is). Pittsburgh has one impressive win, which may or may not be a top-25 victory, depending on how Duke finishes. As of now, that is not enough. Pittsburgh is OUT! (especially considering Miami just beat them, and Miami is not even that safe)
(55) Pacific - I feel for Pacific. I really do. 21-7. Wins over: Loyola Marymount, UALR, Santa Clara. Worst Loss: 45 RPI Santa Clara. Three top-50 wins, but none top-25. Their best chance remains against Loyola Marymount, but it will be in Westchester. Combine that with the fact that Pacific plays three more matches, and two are against teams with losing-records, and it doesn't look good for Pacific. BUT, if they win out, they'll finish with maybe 4-top 50 victories, will that be enough? Or will the team they potentially beat twice (LMU) get in, while they sit out at 24-7?
(56) Virginia - Virginia has too many bad losses. Liberty, VCU, Ball State, Loyola. Not enough wins to compensate for those losses. Virginia doesn't have a chance for a top-25 win, maybe a few more top-50 wins depending on how the ACC finishes out. Either way, I think Virginia is out.
(57) Seton Hall - Seton Hall almost has a top-25 win over Marquette and no 100+ losses, but played a very weak SOS. I don't see them getting an at-large bid, and splitting with Xavier didn't help. If they beat Xavier twice, maybe consideration would be made for the Pirates? Regardless, I don't think they will be in the NCAA's. But if they win out but lose in the Big East Championship, they may squeeze in or be one of the last teams out.
(58) Baylor - Poor Baylor. Such an inconsistent team. They needed to beat the 100+RPI teams they lost to. Baylor is on life-support..
(59) Northwestern - Northwestern has not been impressive as of late and has been drifting out of NCAA at-large range. Don't count on a bid, the Cats need to probably win out. (that includes beating Penn State)
(60) Temple - Temple is hot. If they win out, they should finish 2nd or maybe even first in the AAC. As far as an at-large bid, they certainly need to win out but I don't think it will be enough. It will certainly test the committee. Temple had some early injuries, maybe they will look at that? Not sure, their best bet is for UCF to somehow let the conference title slip away. (Would UCF be on the bubble in that case?)
Honorable Mention (Long Shot) At-Large contenders
(61) UNLV - see below
(62) Wyoming - see below
(63) New Mexico - The MWC trio has three teams at 61, 62, and 63. New Mexico just beat Wyoming but doesn't have an impressive resume. Wyoming beat UNLV twice, but those are their best wins. No Top 50 wins. UNLV beat Colorado State, but lost to Wyoming twice. Regardless, none of these three should be in the NCAA tournament. UNLV losses to Wyomingx2, and CSUNx2, really could have helped them into the NCAA's if they could have turned those into wins.
(64) LIU Brooklyn - Great season for LIU Brooklyn, and they should be able to take care of business to
(65) George Washington - Not a chance for an at-large, but keep an eye on them in the A-10 tournament, they may shock Dayton (again).
(66) UTSA - UTSA could have been an at-large contender after winning 15 straight, but the loss to North Texas cooled them down and puts them in a win-or-die situation in the C-USA tournament.
(67) Wichita State - Nothing really stands out about Wichita State, but they could make a run in the MVC tournament.
(68) Arkansas State - Nothing significant on their resume, but they certainly are surprising me by having a #68 RPI ranking. Not sure how they are so high, but hey, watch out for them in the Sun Belt Tournament.
(69) Harvard - Great season, but they need to beat Yale to get into the tournament.
(70) Arkansas - Jumping over Ole Miss in RPI, but still too far out to be on the bubble
At-Large Bids per Conference:
ACC: 3
AAC: 1
Big East: 1
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
Big West: 2
Pac-12: 9
SEC: 4
WCC: 3
Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament:
46 Southern Methodist
Last Four In: Miami-FL, LSU, Purdue, Cal State Northridge
Last Four Out: Pacific, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech (ineligible), Xavier, Minnesota, Tulsa.
Appreciation to Rich Kern and bluepenquin for RPI projections, as well as to other posters from small-conferences like the Big East, Missouri Valley, A-SUN, etc. who consistently post on the forum to keep me informed.
America East (NEW HAMPSHIRE)
In the tournament, Albany got revenge on Binghamton. After Binghamton beat Albany twice in the regular season, the Great Danes were able to finally get the win and beat the #2 seed. That set them up with reigning 2013 AM-East Champion New Hampshire for the 2014 America East Championship. New Hampshire took care of business in 4 sets as Albany's season comes to an end. New Hampshire hopes to get a better draw than last season, when they were sent to #6 Southern California for the first round of the NCAA's.
Champions: New Hampshire
Atlantic 10
No surprises here in the A-10, it will be #1 Dayton and #2 George Washington in the Championship. #2 GW is playing without its leading OH, but I still think they will pose a threat to Dayton.
Tournament Bracket (hosted by Dayton)
Sunday, November 23 Championship
Match 5: #1 Dayton vs. #2 George Washington
Big Sky
Northern Colorado is the only team to beat Idaho State this season, and they'll have a chance tonight to upset the Bengals and advance to the NCAA tournament. Idaho St is the reigning 2013 Big Sky Champion, and took a set of Hawaii in the NCAA's last year. Northern Colorado has the odds stacked against them - they will have to do it on Idaho State's home floor.
Northern Colorado is up 2 sets to None over Idaho State right now! (upd: And they finish it out! Northern Colorado beats Idaho State, at ISU for the second time this season)
Champions: Northern Colorado
Big South
Wow. Liberty just absolutely falls apart at the end of the season. Looking to be the #1 seed and regular season Big South Champion, they fall apart and actually get bounced in the Quarterfinals of their conference tournament. Would have been nice to see Jade Vorster (Hawaii transfer) back in the NCAAs. But no disrespect to a team I cautioned to watch out for -- #6 High Point. They SWEPT Liberty. High Point eventually lost to host- #2 Coastal Carolina.
Coastal Carolina will try to upset Radford and advance to the NCAA tournament.
Championship Sunday, November 22nd
Match #5 #1 Radford at #2 Coastal Carolina (2:00pm)
Colonial
James Madison upset Towson, but then lost to Hofstra. It will be #1 Charleston vs. #2 Hofstra
Sunday, November 23rd
3:00 p.m. #2 Hofstra at #1 College of Charleston (3pm)
Horizon
No real surprises here, #1 Oakland vs. #2 Milwaukee. Milwaukee the 2013 Horizon League Champions
Sunday, Nov. 23
2:00 p.m. – #2 Milwaukee at #1 Oakland
Ivy
Yale couldn't beat Harvard in two meetings earlier this season, and if Harvard hadn't lost to two other Ivy League teams, the Crimson would be in the NCAA's. But a regular season tie forced a tie-break Ivy playoff match at Harvard. Yale finally got things to go their way as they swept Harvard. Yale is BACK, yet again, in the NCAA.s
Champions: Yale
Metro Atlantic
No upsets on the first day of the MAAC Tournament, but I warned those to watch out for Niagra. The purple eagles were down 0-2 to Manhattan, but they rallied back only to unfortunately lose the 5th set (13-15) to #3 Manhattan. The other team that deserves a shotout from the MAAC is #8 seed Iona. Iona won its opening match of the tournament against #9 Saint Peters, but had to play another match just a few hours later against the #1 seed Marist. Iona pushed Marist to the brink, only to lose in 5 sets.
Catrina Warren posted 30 kills on 84 swings and 42 digs over two games (3-0 win, 2-3 loss to #1 Marist)
In the Finals, it was #2 Siena who pulled the upset over #1 Marist. The Saints grab the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament!
Champions: Siena
Mid Eastern
One of the nations top scorers over the past couple years, Vendula Strakova has led Hampton back to the MEAC Championship and will try to help the Pirates to a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23 - CHAMPIONSHIP
1200 p.m. Hampton vs. Howard
Ohio Valley
No major upsets here, #1 Murray State sweeps #2 Belmont in the Championship to advance to the NCAA Tournament.
Champions: Murray State
Southern
No. 7 Chattanooga almost pulled a major upset over No.2 Samford, but fell in the 5th set.
My dark-horse pick #6 Mercer jumped out to a 2 sets to none over host #3 UNC Greensoboro, but UNCG pushed the match to five sets. In the fifth set, Mercer was down 2-7, but STORMED back to tie the game at 10 all. Only to see #3 UNCG win the match 15-12 in 5 sets.
#1 Furman took care of business and will play #5 Western Carolina who advances to the semifinals.
Semifinals // Sunday, November 23 // Fleming Gym // UNCG // Greensboro, N.C.
2:00 p.m. No. 5 Western Carolina vs. No. 1 Furman
4:30 p.m. No. 2 Samford vs. No 3. UNCG
Championship Finals // Monday, November 24 // Fleming Gym // UNCG // Greensboro, N.C.
6:00 p.m. (Furman/WCU) vs. (UNCG/Samford) ESPN3
Southland
I thought it would be #3 Texas A&M Corpus Christi who would make some noise in the Southland Tournament. They were swept by #2 Central Arkansas. The major upset of the tournament came when #5 Northwestern State pulled off the stunner against Undefeated in Southland regular season play #1 Stephen F. Austin. The tournament was hosted by Northwestern State, so not a huge surprise, but still you had to favor Stephen F. Austin.
It will be a re-match of the 2013 Southland Conference Tournament Championship, #2 Central Arkansas at #5 Northwestern State. The Demons lost in 5 sets last season, after leading the Sugar Bears two sets to none!
Sunday, November 22nd (Championship)
2:00pm #2 Central Arkansas at #5 Northwestern State
SWAC
The SWAC bloodbath continues Sunday, in which Alabama State and UAPB will need to win four matches in order to advance to the NCAA Tournament. (That HAS to be an NCAA-record).. Jackson State and Southern University are in the winners bracket.
SWAC Bracket
American Athletic Conference
There's a big match on Sunday: Temple at Southern Methodist. Temple's at-large chances may have been crushed with a really tough 5-set loss at Tulsa this weekend. That victory keeps Tulsa alive in an at-large discussion. SMU is firmly on the bubble, and a loss to Temple is going to hurt their chances.
The at-large bid is all but gift-wrapped for Central Florida. UCF only has to beat one of the following three: Houston, Cincinatti, and Memphis. I could see them losing to Memphis, but not to both Cincinatti and Houston.
That leaves the only real question for the conference is, is this a one-bid conference? Do Temple, SMU, and Tulsa have any chance? Should they be in consideration? I will update this discussion and RPI values on Monday, which should paint a clearer picture. I think Temple was really hot - but they needed victories over both Tulsa and SMU to stay in consideration. SMU has a better chance for an at-large, and a win tomorrow vs. Temple and a win next week against Tulsa, they may have a really good shot at an at-large. But the committee has a lot of decent bubble teams to look at this year.
Atlantic Sun
UPSET!!! #3 Jacksonville advances to the NCAA Tournament with a stunning upset over #1 Lipscomb!
We'll see where they end up in RPI, and I'll post their fate on Monday.
Big East
Big East Tournament Bracket set:
#1 Creighton vs. #4 Xavier
#2 Marquette vs. #3 Seton Hall
Butler put together a nice season, but it comes to an end this weekend. Tough to chew on for Butler.
Creighton and Marquette are locks to the NCAA tournament.
Conference USA
UTSA was undefeated in conference play until late in the season, but two late-season losses end their season. They lost to North Texas in one of the last C-USA games, and then my dark-horse pick #4 Rice pulled the upset over UTSA to advance to the Championship.
Don't write off Rice - they may upset Western Kentucky and advance to the NCAA Tournament, which will put WKU on the bubble!
Championship - Sunday, November 23
No. 2 Western Kentucky vs. #4 Rice
Mid-American
Weird MAC Format, double-byes for the top two seeds. Championship on Monday. Ohio is the favorite. Lipscomb lost their conference tournament, putting immense pressure on the other 4 small conference at-large hopefuls should they lose (WKU, Ohio, Illinois St., UALR)
2014 MAC Tournament Bracket
Missouri Valley
Illinois State finishes the MVC undefeated, they still may need to win the conference tournament next weekend to advance to the NCAA's. Missouri State nearly upset Illinois State after leading 2 sets to none, but couldn't seal the deal. For that, Missouri St. is the dark-horse for the 2014 MVC Tournament.
Mountain West
Colorado St. clinches the MWC title, and UNLV is down 0-2 to Boise State right now (ouch). Wyoming could be the only other at-large potential candidate, but there is no realistic way they squeeze in the NCAA's (in my opinion).
Northeast
No Surprise here, it will be LIU Broolyn vs. Robert Morris for the title.
LIU Brooklyn ran through the NEC, they went undefeated, and were only pushed to five-sets once (in a strange home match vs. Bryant which they were up 2-0 and nearly blew the match. Count on LIU Brooklyn to be back in the NCAA tournament. But a Robert Morris upset is not out of the question.
Northeast Volleyball Tournament
Patriot
American finished 15-1 and is the #1 seed, while Lehigh finished 14-2 as the #2 seed. American lost to Lehigh in five sets on the last regular season game of the Patriot League, expect a rematch in the Championship. I'm going to lean American. One-bid conference, not a terrible season for American.
(and it happens, it will be American vs. Lehigh for the conference title!)
Patriot Volleyball Tournament
Summit
Dark-Horse is #3 South Dakota... #1 Denver put together a nice-season.
Sunday, Nov. 23
4 p.m. – Championship Match: (2) IUPUI vs. (1) Denver
Sun Belt
UALR is 19-0 in the Sun Belt and has won 20 straight matches. Tournament bracket not yet set, but count on UALR as Champions. Arkansas State, Texas State, or UT Arlington may be one of the teams that could pull a potential upset over UALR. There will be 8-teams in the tournament.
Excerpt from the sunbelt website: www.sunbeltsports.org/news/2014/11/17/WVB_1117143408.aspx
Appalachian State clinched a spot in the Sun Belt Conference tournament despite losing to South Alabama and UL Monroe over the weekend. They are the fifth team to lock up a berth in the championship. UL Lafayette can clinch a spot with a win in either of it's last two contests against Arkansas State and UL Monroe. Georgia State currently sits in seventh one game ahead of both South Alabama and Georgia Southern. Georgia State closes the season hosting Troy and Appalachian State. Georgia Southern and South Alabama are currently tied for the eighth and final spot in the conference tournament. Georgia Southern holds the tiebreaker over the Jaguars thanks to a pair of 3-1 victories in league play. The Eagles close league play hosting UT Arlington and Texas State, while South Alabama hosts UL Monroe and Troy in their final two games.
Cal State Bakersfield wins the 2014 WAC tournament and advances to the NCAA Tournament!
Shoutout for Seattle who rallied from a 5th-set 10-14 deficit to beat No. 4 Utah Valley, then rallied to beat No. 1 UMKC in 5 sets. Their luck ran out as they were swept by host CSUB.
2014 WAC Tournament (pdf)
Big West
THE BEACH! Gotta root for LBSU as they are putting together a great season. I'm really interested to see what the committee does with them.
Hawaii and CSUN look to be just inside the bubble, but I don't know how comfortable I'd be. Just keep winning. Will post more later.
West Coast Conference
WCC Drama because well.. that's just how it is (Every season).
BYU is the only team who you can say for 100% is in the NCAA Tournament.
If LMU does not make it into the NCAA Tournament, I will probably get banned from VolleyTalk.
Santa Clara is in trouble now, because of two losses: Pepperdine and San Francisco.
San Diego handled business against the Northwest schools, and if they beat Saint Mary's, the Toreros should be IN the NCAA tournament.
The team that's probably going to finish 2nd place in the WCC, Pacific, may not make the NCAA tournament. Pacific, in my opinion, SHOULD be an NCAA-Tournament team. If they win at San Francisco, how can you leave them out. 24-7 (13-5 WCC).. Top-50 Wins: LMU(x2), Santa Clara, UALR. Losses: BYU(x2), USC, San Diego (x2), Santa Clara, Oregon State. (All NCAA teams, unless USD/SCU don't get in)
We'll see what the RPI is on Monday, and I will add in more information.
ACC
I don't even want to talk about Miami right now, because the bubble picture is getting even more complicated. Winning against Boston College and Georgia Tech may put Miami in the NCAA Tournament. A win against FSU should definitely put Miami in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina should end up winning the ACC - unless Duke pulls the upset.
Pittsburgh is also challenging for an at-large bid, They probably need to win out to be in conisderation. They play Louisville, Virginia, and Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech is also on the bubble, they beat Pittsburgh twice. They also beat Illinois and Duke. If Virginia Tech wins its last two games, I think you have to consider them because of their victories. They are better than a lot of other bubble teams.
Virginia is the last ACC-contender, but I think the weakest. Pittsburgh vs. Virginia may determine who is a better bubble contender, but right now I don't think either of them are going to get in.
Big Ten
Michigan State's win over Northwestern essentially eliminates Northwestern. A victory over Penn State would maybe put them in consideration, but is that possible?
Sparty is not safe though. They still play Purdue and Iowa, and I think they need to win both to get in.
Uh oh, Minnesota SWEEPS Purdue. If they beat Ohio State, the Golden Gophers I think are in the NCAA Tournament. Even if they lose, I think they still have a chance. Hmmmmmm
Purdue should still be ok, but a loss to Michigan State could put them on the bubble. They will be 4-6 in their last 10 if they lose to Wisconsin, and those 4 wins come against Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, and Minnesota (no NCAA tournament teams unless Minny gets in) I still think Purdue should b ok...
Michigan is ineligible for the NCAA tournament.
It's going to be an interesting finish in the B1G!
Big 12
Baylor is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Texas wins the auto-bid. Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma are at-large bids. Only question is who gets a seed?
SEC
Florida wins the SEC. LSU is still on the bubble. They have to play South Carolina and Auburn, and if they lose one of those, I think they are in trouble. If they lose both, LSU should be OUT.
PAC-12
Southern California is in big trouble. The Women of Troy only needed one victory out of their last six matches, but losses to Stanford, Cal, and now Oregon State have made things questionable for Troy. I think they are going to beat Oregon, Arizona, or UCLA and squeeze into the NCAA's. If they don't, I have no sympathy. A really poor finish to the season and the first time in the Mick Haley era that USC is in trouble to make the NCAA Tournament. USC should get in.
The big question is still will the Pac get 12 bids? More updates to come on Monday.
****No Updates Below, the post below is as of results at 11/17.. will update in new-post Monday****
32 Automatic Qualifiers (11/17 RPI ranking in parentheses)
(Conference Breakdown & Standings at bottom of page)
ACC – North Carolina (5)
America East – New Hampshire (217)
AAC –UCF (29)
Atlantic 10 – Dayton (77)
Atlantic Sun – Lipscomb (32)
Big 10 – Wisconsin (6)
Big 12 – Texas (2)
Big East – Marquette (26)
Big Sky – Idaho State (109)
Big South – Radford (98)
Big West – Long Beach State (23)
Colonial – Hofstra (104)
Conference USA – Western Kentucky (42)
Horizon – Oakland (119)
Ivy – Harvard (69)
MAAC – Marist (151)
MAC – Ohio (39)
MEAC – Hampton (177)
MVC – Illinois State (44)
MWC – Colorado State (12)
NEC – LIU Brooklyn (64)
OVC – Murray State (134)
Pac-12 – Stanford (1)
Patriot – American (86)
SEC – Florida (7)
SoCon – Samford (146)
Southland – Stephen F. Austin (132)
Summit – Denver (90)
Sun Belt – UALR (41)
SWAC – Alabama State (287)
WAC – UMKC (88)
WCC – BYU (21)
32 At-Large Bids
(sorted in order of RPI)
Green teams are locks (or everything but locks) to NCAA tournament.
Blue teams have eligibility issues.
Orange teams are on the bubble, but have more breathing room than Yellow teams.
Yellow teams are firmly on the bubble and every game is vital.
Florida State (3)
Washington (4)
Oregon (8)
Illinois (9)
Penn State (10)
Nebraska (11)
Kentucky (13)
Arizona (14)
Iowa State (15)
Kansas (16)
UCLA (17)
Kansas State (18)
Texas A&M (19)
Southern California (20) - (.500 eligibility concern)
Duke (22)
Colorado (24)
Oklahoma (25)
Miami-FL (27)
Alabama (28)
UCF (29)
Hawaii (30)
Creighton (31)
Ohio State (33)
Loyola Marymount (34)
Oregon State (35)
Arizona State (36)
Cal St. Northridge (37)
LSU (38)
Utah (40)
San Diego (43)
Santa Clara (45)
Purdue (47)
As you can see, I nearly went strictly by RPI. Not because I believe the RPI is going to be the sole determiner, but with a combination of all the factors and overall body of works of each team, I think if the bracket was pulled today the committee would go strictly by RPI, but leaving Southern Methodist out (and maybe Miami-FL). Do I think it's going to happen? It's possible - but probably not. I'm really concerned with Lipscomb stealing a bid if they are upset. The other four could all miss out (Western Kentucky, UALR, Illinois State, Ohio)
I didn't have the cojones to leave Miami out. Maybe next week, we'll see. Only two more full weeks of play until all matches have concluded.
Other serious at-large contenders:
(46) Southern Methodist - SMU has chances to win. If they win out, including beating Temple and Tulsa, they may have a chance for a berth. But even then, it is not guaranteed. Watch out for both Temple and Tulsa, who have been playing well and recently both beat UCF, to both beat SMU, and put them in a better position for a bid than SMU.
(48) Michigan - Big Blue needs to get eligible. If they finish 15-15, I'll all but guarantee a berth for the Wolverines.
(49) Michigan State - State needs to finish strong. I'd like to see them win out, to be a right on the bubble for an at-large bid. They may even knock Purdue out!
(50) Virginia Tech - Can the Hokies be a contender if they are eligible? Well, they've certainly got some wins, but the amount of losses are hurting. It'd be amazing to see how high their RPI would go if they won all of the games against lower ranked RPI teams..
(51) Minnesota - Not winning a game against a top-tier B1G team would have been okay if their RPI was higher, but since they have remaining matches at weaker teams, I think Minnesota is going to end up OUT of the NCAA tournament.
(52) Xavier - The Musketeers saved their postseason hopes with a win at Butler. Had they lost, they would not have made the Big East tournament, or the NCAA tournament. They still have to win the Big East tournament to make an NCAA appearance, I think. Even an upset over Creighton in the B-East Semifinals shouldn't be enough for an at-large bid, they'll have to win a conference tournament. But it's seriously Déjà vu for Xavier, this is the THIRD straight year they are probably going to finish with an RPI in the mid-50's, just outside the NCAA tournament. Sad case. I believe the last two years their season ended at the hands of Marquette.
(53) Tulsa - Tulsa registered a major upset over UCF to get them back on the bubble. This is the same team that started 0-4 in AAC play. Since then, they are 10-1 in conference. They'll meet Temple this week. If Temple beats Tulsa, I think Tulsa's at-large chances are over, even if they win-out including beating Southern Methodist.
(54) Pittsburgh - Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh (again). Tech has beaten Pittsburgh twice in the past three weeks. Ouch. How can you put Pitt in over the Hokies (if the Hokies even finish eligible, that is). Pittsburgh has one impressive win, which may or may not be a top-25 victory, depending on how Duke finishes. As of now, that is not enough. Pittsburgh is OUT! (especially considering Miami just beat them, and Miami is not even that safe)
(55) Pacific - I feel for Pacific. I really do. 21-7. Wins over: Loyola Marymount, UALR, Santa Clara. Worst Loss: 45 RPI Santa Clara. Three top-50 wins, but none top-25. Their best chance remains against Loyola Marymount, but it will be in Westchester. Combine that with the fact that Pacific plays three more matches, and two are against teams with losing-records, and it doesn't look good for Pacific. BUT, if they win out, they'll finish with maybe 4-top 50 victories, will that be enough? Or will the team they potentially beat twice (LMU) get in, while they sit out at 24-7?
(56) Virginia - Virginia has too many bad losses. Liberty, VCU, Ball State, Loyola. Not enough wins to compensate for those losses. Virginia doesn't have a chance for a top-25 win, maybe a few more top-50 wins depending on how the ACC finishes out. Either way, I think Virginia is out.
(57) Seton Hall - Seton Hall almost has a top-25 win over Marquette and no 100+ losses, but played a very weak SOS. I don't see them getting an at-large bid, and splitting with Xavier didn't help. If they beat Xavier twice, maybe consideration would be made for the Pirates? Regardless, I don't think they will be in the NCAA's. But if they win out but lose in the Big East Championship, they may squeeze in or be one of the last teams out.
(58) Baylor - Poor Baylor. Such an inconsistent team. They needed to beat the 100+RPI teams they lost to. Baylor is on life-support..
(59) Northwestern - Northwestern has not been impressive as of late and has been drifting out of NCAA at-large range. Don't count on a bid, the Cats need to probably win out. (that includes beating Penn State)
(60) Temple - Temple is hot. If they win out, they should finish 2nd or maybe even first in the AAC. As far as an at-large bid, they certainly need to win out but I don't think it will be enough. It will certainly test the committee. Temple had some early injuries, maybe they will look at that? Not sure, their best bet is for UCF to somehow let the conference title slip away. (Would UCF be on the bubble in that case?)
Honorable Mention (Long Shot) At-Large contenders
(61) UNLV - see below
(62) Wyoming - see below
(63) New Mexico - The MWC trio has three teams at 61, 62, and 63. New Mexico just beat Wyoming but doesn't have an impressive resume. Wyoming beat UNLV twice, but those are their best wins. No Top 50 wins. UNLV beat Colorado State, but lost to Wyoming twice. Regardless, none of these three should be in the NCAA tournament. UNLV losses to Wyomingx2, and CSUNx2, really could have helped them into the NCAA's if they could have turned those into wins.
(64) LIU Brooklyn - Great season for LIU Brooklyn, and they should be able to take care of business to
(65) George Washington - Not a chance for an at-large, but keep an eye on them in the A-10 tournament, they may shock Dayton (again).
(66) UTSA - UTSA could have been an at-large contender after winning 15 straight, but the loss to North Texas cooled them down and puts them in a win-or-die situation in the C-USA tournament.
(67) Wichita State - Nothing really stands out about Wichita State, but they could make a run in the MVC tournament.
(68) Arkansas State - Nothing significant on their resume, but they certainly are surprising me by having a #68 RPI ranking. Not sure how they are so high, but hey, watch out for them in the Sun Belt Tournament.
(69) Harvard - Great season, but they need to beat Yale to get into the tournament.
(70) Arkansas - Jumping over Ole Miss in RPI, but still too far out to be on the bubble
At-Large Bids per Conference:
ACC: 3
AAC: 1
Big East: 1
Big 10: 5
Big 12: 4
Big West: 2
Pac-12: 9
SEC: 4
WCC: 3
Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament:
46 Southern Methodist
Last Four In: Miami-FL, LSU, Purdue, Cal State Northridge
Last Four Out: Pacific, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech (ineligible), Xavier, Minnesota, Tulsa.
