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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2014 11:48:22 GMT -5
Rank | Team | Rating | Range | 1 | Stanford | 7315 | 6825 - 7815 | 2 | Wisconsin | 6825 | 6615 - 6970 | 3 | Washington | 6820 | 6685 - 6820 | 4 | Illinois | 6810 | 6805 - 7310 | 5 | Texas | 6730 | 6650 - 7230 | 6 | North Carolina | 6675 | 6490 - 6810 | 7 | Colorado | 6660 | 6660 - 6675 | 8 | Florida State | 6650 | 6650 - 6835 | 9 | Penn State | 6645 | 6475 - 6645 | 10 | Oregon | 6520 | 6505 - 6635 | 11 | Arizona | 6490 | 6445 - 6495 | 11 | Nebraska | 6490 | 6490 - 6490 | 13 | UCLA | 6475 | 6385 - 6490 | 14 | Florida | 6470 | 6385 - 6565 | 15 | Colorado State | 6450 | 6355 - 6450 | 16 | BYU | 6345 | 6190 - 6345 | 17 | Loyola Marymount | 6330 | 6330 - 6345 | 18 | UNLV | 6295 | 6295 - 6610 | 19 | Oregon State | 6285 | 6175 - 6330 | 20 | Texas A&M | 6255 | 6255 - 6485 | 21 | Kansas State | 6235 | 6235 - 6300 | 22 | USC | 6225 | 6190 - 6310 | 23 | Kentucky | 6220 | 6125 - 6305 | 24 | Arizona State | 6195 | 6170 - 6290 | 25 | San Diego | 6185 | 6185 - 6185 | 26 | Utah | 6180 | 6065 - 6315 | 27 | Long Beach State | 6170 | 6170 - 6170 | 28 | Iowa State | 6140 | 6090 - 6165 | 29 | Duke | 6135 | 6050 - 6135 | 30 | Miami-FL | 6130 | 6035 - 6290 | 31 | Creighton | 6120 | 6025 - 6170 | 32 | Illinois State | 6095 | 6095 - 6595 | 32 | Ohio | 6095 | 6095 - 6095 | 34 | Ohio State | 6090 | 5940 - 6090 | 35 | Kansas | 6070 | 5965 - 6070 | 36 | Purdue | 6045 | 6030 - 6050 | 37 | Santa Clara | 6025 | 6025 - 6025 | 37 | Pacific | 6025 | 5870 - 6025 | 39 | Seton Hall | 6020 | 6020 - 6130 | 40 | Northern Illinois | 6015 | 6015 - 6025 | 41 | Marquette | 6010 | 5960 - 6020 | 42 | Minnesota | 6005 | 6005 - 6090 | 42 | Hawaii | 6005 | 5935 - 6005 | 44 | Alabama | 5985 | 5895 - 6045 | 45 | Michigan | 5970 | 5970 - 6005 | 46 | LSU | 5965 | 5815 - 6060 | 46 | Cal State Northridge | 5965 | 5965 - 6005 | 46 | Arkansas-Little Rock | 5965 | 5580 - 5965 | 49 | Northwestern | 5935 | 5935 - 5935 | 49 | UCF | 5935 | 5930 - 5950 | 51 | Oklahoma | 5930 | 5910 - 5930 | 52 | LIU Brooklyn | 5895 | 5895 - 5985 | 53 | Western Kentucky | 5890 | 5890 - 5890 | 54 | Louisville | 5885 | 5885 - 6010 | 54 | Virginia | 5885 | 5885 - 5885 | 56 | Pittsburgh | 5875 | 5735 - 5880 | 57 | Harvard | 5870 | 5870 - 6370 | 58 | Butler | 5860 | 5860 - 5860 | 59 | Northern Iowa | 5850 | 5850 - 5850 | 60 | Michigan State | 5845 | 5810 - 5845 | 61 | Temple | 5790 | 5775 - 6050 | 62 | Iowa | 5775 | 5775 - 5880 | 63 | SMU | 5770 | 5770 - 5770 | 64 | Tulsa | 5755 | 5610 - 5770 | 65 | Lipscomb | 5725 | 5700 - 5725 | 65 | Washington State | 5725 | 5725 - 6015 | 65 | Liberty | 5725 | 5725 - 6225 | 68 | Virginia Tech | 5720 | 5715 - 5720 | 69 | Furman | 5700 | 5700 - 5755 | 70 | Xavier | 5695 | 5565 - 5695 | 70 | Gonzaga | 5695 | 5630 - 5695 | 72 | North Texas | 5690 | 5690 - 5810 | 73 | Wichita State | 5685 | 5655 - 5685 | 74 | Cal | 5655 | 5550 - 5865 | 74 | New Mexico | 5655 | 5630 - 5655 | 74 | Texas-San Antonio | 5655 | 5535 - 5685 | 77 | Memphis | 5610 | 5610 - 5630 | 78 | Idaho State | 5595 | 5510 - 5595 | 78 | Wyoming | 5595 | 5540 - 5595 | 80 | Denver | 5590 | 5525 - 5590 | 81 | Yale | 5580 | 5285 - 5710 | 82 | Baylor | 5575 | 5575 - 5575 | 82 | UC Irvine | 5575 | 5575 - 5655 | 84 | Northern Colorado | 5570 | 5470 - 5620 | 85 | Clemson | 5560 | 5560 - 5560 | 85 | North Dakota | 5560 | 5515 - 5560 | 85 | Dayton | 5560 | 5540 - 5565 | 88 | Arkansas | 5550 | 5500 - 5605 | 88 | Indiana | 5550 | 5445 - 5590 | 88 | Pepperdine | 5550 | 5550 - 5685 | 91 | Missouri | 5540 | 5540 - 5565 | 92 | UC Davis | 5535 | 5535 - 5545 | 93 | Missouri State | 5530 | 5530 - 5690 | 93 | Valparaiso | 5530 | 5530 - 5530 | 95 | UMKC | 5525 | 5525 - 5525 | 95 | South Dakota | 5525 | 5435 - 5595 | 97 | Miami-OH | 5520 | 5420 - 5520 | 97 | Ole Miss | 5520 | 5520 - 5665 | 99 | Arkansas State | 5515 | 5450 - 5515 | 100 | South Carolina | 5500 | 5500 - 5525 | 101 | San Diego State | 5495 | 5495 - 5560 | 102 | Boise State | 5465 | 5435 - 5465 | 103 | Ball State | 5460 | 5420 - 5525 | 104 | NC State | 5440 | 5440 - 5440 | 104 | Radford | 5440 | 5290 - 5440 | 106 | Utah State | 5435 | 5435 - 5490 | 106 | IUPUI | 5435 | 5435 - 5540 | 108 | TCU | 5415 | 5415 - 5535 | 109 | Rice | 5410 | 5375 - 5490 | 109 | Eastern Michigan | 5410 | 5385 - 5410 | 109 | Texas State | 5410 | 5410 - 5410 | 112 | George Washington | 5405 | 5405 - 5410 | 112 | Boston College | 5405 | 5405 - 5445 | 114 | Towson | 5400 | 5385 - 5500 | 115 | Saint Marys | 5385 | 5375 - 5385 | 115 | Hofstra | 5385 | 5385 - 5505 | 117 | West Virginia | 5380 | 5275 - 5380 | 117 | Texas Tech | 5380 | 5260 - 5410 | 119 | Oakland | 5375 | 5370 - 5410 | 120 | Wisconsin-Milwaukee | 5370 | 5370 - 5535 | 120 | VCU | 5370 | 5370 - 5395 | 120 | Coastal Carolina | 5370 | 5345 - 5380 | 120 | UCSB | 5370 | 4970 - 5370 | 124 | Texas-Arlington | 5360 | 5355 - 5405 | 124 | San Francisco | 5360 | 5230 - 5385 | 126 | Northern Arizona | 5345 | 5080 - 5430 | 126 | College of Charleston | 5345 | 5245 - 5380 | 128 | Winthrop | 5340 | 5340 - 5340 | 128 | Auburn | 5340 | 5305 - 5340 | 130 | Idaho | 5305 | 5305 - 5375 | 131 | Florida Gulf Coast | 5300 | 5210 - 5335 | 132 | Appalachian State | 5290 | 5280 - 5355 | 133 | Georgia Tech | 5285 | 5285 - 5335 | 133 | Stephen F. Austin | 5285 | 5165 - 5520 | 133 | Maryland | 5285 | 4955 - 5390 | 136 | Georgia | 5280 | 5185 - 5280 | 136 | New Mexico State | 5280 | 5280 - 5365 | 138 | Western Michigan | 5260 | 5250 - 5300 | 139 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 5250 | 5220 - 5250 | 140 | American | 5240 | 4955 - 5245 | 141 | St. Johns | 5230 | 5175 - 5280 | 142 | Murray State | 5225 | 4985 - 5400 | 143 | East Carolina | 5220 | 5220 - 5220 | 143 | UNC Wilmington | 5220 | 5220 - 5220 | 143 | Marshall | 5220 | 5220 - 5220 | 143 | Cincinnati | 5220 | 5220 - 5290 | 147 | Southern Illinois | 5205 | 5060 - 5205 | 147 | Central Arkansas | 5205 | 5165 - 5300 | 149 | Air Force | 5180 | 5180 - 5210 | 150 | Wake Forest | 5175 | 5125 - 5175 | 151 | Kent State | 5170 | 5170 - 5225 | 152 | Villanova | 5120 | 5120 - 5390 | 153 | Florida Atlantic | 5110 | 5110 - 5110 | 154 | Youngstown State | 5105 | 5105 - 5150 | 155 | Cal Poly | 5080 | 4970 - 5370 | 156 | USF | 5065 | 5065 - 5340 | 157 | Eastern Kentucky | 5060 | 5060 - 5100 | 158 | Seattle | 5055 | 4835 - 5070 | 158 | Houston | 5055 | 5015 - 5055 | 158 | Notre Dame | 5055 | 5055 - 5095 | 161 | Saint Louis | 5050 | 5020 - 5050 | 162 | Indiana State | 5045 | 5045 - 5045 | 163 | Syracuse | 5020 | 5020 - 5215 | 164 | Buffalo | 5010 | 4760 - 5010 | 165 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 5000 | 4915 - 5000 | 165 | IPFW | 5000 | 5000 - 5060 | 167 | Duquesne | 4995 | 4950 - 4995 | 168 | North Dakota State | 4990 | 4885 - 4990 | 168 | Northern Kentucky | 4990 | 4990 - 4990 | 170 | Utah Valley | 4975 | 4895 - 4995 | 171 | Nevada | 4965 | 4965 - 5020 | 172 | James Madison | 4955 | 4955 - 4955 | 172 | Southern Miss | 4955 | 4955 - 4955 | 174 | Samford | 4950 | 4895 - 5050 | 175 | Charlotte | 4945 | 4945 - 4945 | 175 | Princeton | 4945 | 4915 - 4945 | 175 | Illinois-Chicago | 4945 | 4905 - 4945 | 178 | Rhode Island | 4930 | 4840 - 4945 | 179 | Bowling Green | 4920 | 4920 - 4920 | 179 | Portland State | 4920 | 4830 - 5000 | 181 | CSU Bakersfield | 4915 | 4900 - 4915 | 181 | South Alabama | 4915 | 4895 - 4940 | 181 | Portland | 4915 | 4665 - 5000 | 184 | Western Carolina | 4900 | 4900 - 5050 | 185 | Tulane | 4895 | 4895 - 4945 | 186 | East Tennessee State | 4890 | 4790 - 4890 | 187 | Drake | 4885 | 4885 - 4895 | 188 | Georgetown | 4855 | 4855 - 4960 | 189 | Sam Houston State | 4840 | 4840 - 4840 | 189 | Southern Utah | 4840 | 4840 - 5045 | 191 | Oral Roberts | 4835 | 4835 - 4835 | 192 | Jacksonville | 4830 | 4830 - 4830 | 193 | Belmont | 4825 | 4800 - 4825 | 194 | Gardner-Webb | 4805 | 4805 - 4825 | 194 | Cal State Fullerton | 4805 | 4750 - 4915 | 196 | Fresno State | 4800 | 4800 - 4800 | 197 | Dartmouth | 4795 | 4795 - 4795 | 197 | Middle Tennessee | 4795 | 4795 - 4795 | 197 | Loyola-Chicago | 4795 | 4795 - 4885 | 200 | Eastern Illinois | 4790 | 4735 - 4790 | 200 | Rutgers | 4790 | 4785 - 4790 | 200 | UConn | 4790 | 4625 - 4900 | 203 | New Hampshire | 4785 | 4770 - 4795 | 203 | Georgia Southern | 4785 | 4760 - 4785 | 205 | Lehigh | 4780 | 4780 - 4780 | 206 | Central Michigan | 4760 | 4760 - 4880 | 207 | Brown | 4750 | 4750 - 4750 | 208 | Florida A&M | 4745 | 4635 - 5245 | 209 | UTEP | 4735 | 4590 - 4780 | 209 | UNC Greensboro | 4735 | 4735 - 4735 | 209 | Georgia State | 4735 | 4640 - 4735 | 212 | Howard | 4730 | 4530 - 4730 | 213 | UNF | 4725 | 4670 - 4725 | 213 | Nebraska-Omaha | 4725 | 4725 - 4725 | 213 | Tennessee | 4725 | 4625 - 4725 | 216 | Mississippi State | 4695 | 4565 - 4755 | 217 | Hampton | 4690 | 4615 - 4690 | 218 | Houston Baptist | 4680 | 4680 - 4835 | 218 | Marist | 4680 | 4620 - 4680 | 220 | Grand Canyon | 4675 | 4505 - 4675 | 221 | Stetson | 4670 | 4670 - 4670 | 222 | Montana | 4665 | 4665 - 4755 | 223 | Eastern Washington | 4660 | 4600 - 4660 | 224 | Presbyterian | 4645 | 4505 - 4645 | 224 | Northeastern | 4645 | 4645 - 4765 | 226 | Jacksonville State | 4635 | 4635 - 4635 | 227 | Delaware | 4630 | 4485 - 4630 | 228 | Troy University | 4625 | 4625 - 4755 | 229 | Colgate | 4620 | 4620 - 4670 | 229 | Cleveland State | 4620 | 4480 - 4620 | 229 | Navy | 4620 | 4465 - 4620 | 232 | Fairfield | 4600 | 4595 - 4615 | 233 | Penn | 4590 | 4590 - 4590 | 234 | Columbia | 4585 | 4445 - 4585 | 235 | South Carolina Upstate | 4565 | 4565 - 4620 | 236 | Robert Morris | 4560 | 4555 - 4560 | 236 | Austin Peay | 4560 | 4560 - 4560 | 238 | SIUE | 4555 | 4405 - 4555 | 239 | Florida International | 4545 | 4410 - 4630 | 239 | Stony Brook | 4545 | 4410 - 4545 | 241 | Chattanooga | 4515 | 4515 - 4570 | 241 | Army | 4515 | 4480 - 4620 | 243 | Northwestern State | 4505 | 4505 - 4505 | 243 | Montana State | 4505 | 4505 - 4505 | 245 | Kennesaw State | 4480 | 4405 - 4505 | 246 | Campbell | 4475 | 4475 - 4475 | 246 | Tennessee Tech | 4475 | 4475 - 4535 | 248 | Manhattan College | 4455 | 4440 - 4455 | 249 | Cornell | 4435 | 4435 - 4590 | 250 | Siena | 4430 | 4395 - 4430 | 250 | Western Illinois | 4430 | 4325 - 4565 | 252 | Akron | 4405 | 4405 - 4600 | 253 | Louisiana-Monroe | 4400 | 4260 - 4400 | 253 | UT Martin | 4400 | 4400 - 4470 | 255 | Southeast Missouri | 4395 | 4395 - 4395 | 255 | Evansville | 4395 | 4235 - 4395 | 257 | Central Connecticut State | 4390 | 4265 - 4395 | 257 | Southeastern Louisiana | 4390 | 4385 - 4405 | 259 | Albany | 4385 | 4385 - 4430 | 260 | Tennessee State | 4380 | 4320 - 4390 | 261 | UAB | 4350 | 4230 - 4350 | 261 | UC Riverside | 4350 | 3900 - 4385 | 263 | Nicholls State | 4345 | 4345 - 4395 | 264 | Incarnate Word | 4340 | 4185 - 4340 | 264 | UNC Asheville | 4340 | 4180 - 4340 | 266 | San Jose State | 4335 | 4160 - 4335 | 267 | High Point | 4315 | 4190 - 4315 | 268 | Coppin State | 4305 | 4220 - 4350 | 269 | Rider | 4300 | 4300 - 4350 | 270 | Toledo | 4285 | 3785 - 4560 | 271 | Texas-Pan American | 4260 | 4150 - 4400 | 272 | Louisiana Tech | 4250 | 4250 - 4385 | 272 | St. Francis-PA | 4250 | 4235 - 4250 | 274 | McNeese State | 4245 | 4245 - 4340 | 274 | DePaul | 4245 | 4075 - 4380 | 276 | Niagara | 4235 | 4165 - 4270 | 276 | Abilene Christian | 4235 | 4160 - 4340 | 276 | Bradley | 4235 | 4235 - 4405 | 279 | Morehead State | 4230 | 4220 - 4230 | 279 | Wright State | 4230 | 4230 - 4460 | 281 | Morgan State | 4225 | 4145 - 4405 | 281 | Lamar | 4225 | 4185 - 4230 | 283 | Hartford | 4220 | 4220 - 4220 | 284 | Wofford | 4215 | 4215 - 4310 | 285 | William & Mary | 4195 | 4020 - 4195 | 286 | La Salle | 4190 | 4145 - 4220 | 287 | Elon | 4175 | 4175 - 4335 | 288 | South Dakota State | 4160 | 4160 - 4265 | 289 | Weber State | 4155 | 4155 - 4155 | 290 | Bryant | 4105 | 4105 - 4190 | 291 | Wisconsin-Green Bay | 4065 | 3900 - 4065 | 292 | UMBC | 4055 | 4055 - 4055 | 292 | Bethune-Cookman | 4055 | 3940 - 4055 | 292 | Mercer | 4055 | 3965 - 4055 | 295 | George Mason | 4035 | 4035 - 4095 | 296 | Charleston Southern | 4025 | 3960 - 4150 | 297 | Canisius | 4005 | 3915 - 4075 | 298 | Sacramento State | 3995 | 3495 - 3995 | 299 | Texas Southern | 3990 | 3820 - 4015 | 300 | Alabama State | 3980 | 3860 - 4150 | 300 | Bucknell | 3980 | 3950 - 4100 | 302 | Sacred Heart | 3945 | 3945 - 3945 | 303 | Holy Cross | 3940 | 3940 - 3940 | 303 | Fordham | 3940 | 3880 - 3940 | 305 | Binghamton | 3935 | 3895 - 3935 | 306 | Maryland Eastern Shore | 3895 | 3895 - 3895 | 307 | Davidson | 3870 | 3580 - 3870 | 308 | The Citadel | 3800 | 3800 - 3865 | 308 | Providence | 3800 | 3775 - 3800 | 310 | NJIT | 3770 | 3770 - 3770 | 311 | Iona | 3750 | 3485 - 3775 | 312 | Chicago State | 3735 | 3530 - 3900 | 313 | Alabama A&M | 3695 | 3695 - 3815 | 314 | UMass-Lowell | 3635 | 3610 - 3770 | 315 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3620 | 3620 - 3695 | 316 | Saint Peters | 3615 | 3615 - 3765 | 317 | Lafayette | 3605 | 3585 - 3605 | 318 | North Carolina Central | 3580 | 3460 - 3690 | 319 | New Orleans | 3540 | 3455 - 3610 | 320 | Jackson State | 3535 | 3535 - 3535 | 321 | North Carolina A&T | 3530 | 3455 - 3530 | 322 | Norfolk State | 3500 | 3185 - 3500 | 323 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 3485 | 3485 - 3605 | 324 | Southern | 3455 | 3455 - 3455 | 325 | Loyola University Maryland | 3420 | 2975 - 3440 | 326 | Prairie View A&M | 3370 | 3295 - 3370 | 327 | Delaware State | 3340 | 3340 - 3605 | 328 | St. Francis-Brooklyn | 3320 | 3145 - 3320 | 329 | South Carolina State | 3295 | 3125 - 3295 | 330 | Quinnipiac | 3140 | 2640 - 3315 | 331 | Savannah State | 2960 | 2460 - 3130 | 332 | Alcorn State | 2775 | 2775 - 2925 | 333 | Grambling State | 2615 | 2455 - 2615 | 333 | Mississippi Valley State | 2615 | 2460 - 2615 |
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2014 11:53:11 GMT -5
So here's a question. How much worse is the AVCA ranking, or the RPI ranking, or Pablo for that matter? I presume you could just enter those rankings and assess their relative optimality using the same metrics. (AVCA tricky because only some teams are ranked). Another question...what is the basis for the base score. Complicated.... In order to get this to work best, there are some things I do in parallel to help find the best results, and that leads to preferences even within the landscape of the best fit. For example, look at Harvard. With Harvard, they could in fact be ranked anywhere from where they are up. I could rate Harvard at 10000, and it wouldn't change the overall number of correct matches. Therefore, I used a secondary parameter (based only on wins) to help guide that ordering inside the optimal fit. It also helped find a much better fit. Without doing that, I sat in the 86% range. With this, it's 88.4%. I don't know what the rating numbers mean. I forgot to mention: the HCA is 161. That is CRITICAL, and accounts for things like why Colorado is 160 points below Washington (counts as a win with the HCA)
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 21, 2014 11:54:44 GMT -5
Back in the day when I was a student at Kellogg and computer time had to be reserved well in advance, I had a lot of fun doing multiple regressions to find formulae best explaining "past results." They were amazingly accurate, but were ridiculous for forecasting--which I think most people in VB and business are much more interested in. (e.g. in correlating price of aluminum, the price of Heinz Ketchup was a strong independent variable, though I have not followed up to see how it performed as a predictor). The price of aluminum depends heavily on the price of electricity. I wonder if the price of ketchup does too?
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2014 12:36:35 GMT -5
Method | Matches Correct | Percentage | RPI (raw) | 3727 | 82.29 | RPI (empirical HCA) | 3762 | 83.06 | Pablo | 3734 | 82.45 | Ultimate Pablo | 3971 | 87.68 |
A couple of notes: 1) Pablo and the Ultimate Pablo are based on ALL matches of ALL teams, including those that are ineligible for NCAA and those of other divisions. So that is the set that I used to create the rankings. The results shown above are only for matches of NCAA eligible teams, aka those teams that have RPI ratings, and so a lot of the matches are thrown out (something like 200 total) 2) RPI listed here are the RKPI ratings from RichKern.com 3) Raw RPI is the straight values of RKPI from RichKern.Com. Recognizing that RPI does not include any home court adjustments, I have shown the option where I added an adjustment to account for HCA. The value I used (0.029 in case you wondering) is the one that gives the BEST result for RPI. Notice that the raw RPI actually does a WORSE JOB than Pablo in _reflecting_ the outcomes of matches that have been played!!!! Let's see, it doesn't predict winners as well as Pablo, it can't even tell you who won as well as Pablo. But it works, says the NCAA... So this new Ultimate Pablo ranking is 4.5 - 5% better in reflected teams who won than Pablo or RPI, and that translates into more than 200 - 250 matches so far this season that are reflected correctly in TUP Ratings that are not in Pablo or RPI. Since every match involves two teams, that means that it is a little more than one additional correctly reflected match per team.
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Post by vbprisoner on Nov 21, 2014 12:41:44 GMT -5
Based on your final results did you take it far enough to tell us what the cut off rank # would be for at-large bids if the 32 automatic bids went to the favored teams? I think that would be interesting to see who would be outside looking in with your results then we can see how that compares to the actual bids in a couple weeks.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2014 12:44:00 GMT -5
Based on your final results did you take it far enough to tell us what the cut off rank # would be for at-large bids if the 32 automatic bids went to the favored teams? I think that would be interesting to see who would be outside looking in with your results then we can see how that compares to the actual bids in a couple weeks. I'll let those who do things like make predictions of tournament fields to do that. As I said above, I'm not big on assessing things based on whether I like the outcomes or not, I think about methodology and foundation.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 21, 2014 12:51:18 GMT -5
Based on your final results did you take it far enough to tell us what the cut off rank # would be for at-large bids if the 32 automatic bids went to the favored teams? I think that would be interesting to see who would be outside looking in with your results then we can see how that compares to the actual bids in a couple weeks. Minnesota and Hawaii would be last ones in. Alabama, LSU, Northridge first out. Oklahoma would be well out. Pacific and Minnesota would get in off the bubble, and Northern Illinois in from out of nowhere.
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Post by badgerbreath on Nov 21, 2014 12:54:05 GMT -5
So IL is an interesting case...It has a score of 6810, but a highly skewed range of 6805-7310! What are these ranges about and how do they get so skewed, especially near the top of the rankings were I would expect less skew to high numbers (except for Stanford, where I would expect some uncertainty about the top end given they haven't lost.)
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2014 13:07:23 GMT -5
Based on your final results did you take it far enough to tell us what the cut off rank # would be for at-large bids if the 32 automatic bids went to the favored teams? I think that would be interesting to see who would be outside looking in with your results then we can see how that compares to the actual bids in a couple weeks. Minnesota and Hawaii would be last ones in. Alabama, LSU, Northridge first out. Oklahoma would be well out. Pacific and Minnesota would get in off the bubble, and Northern Illinois in from out of nowhere. The only thing I can see about NIU is that they would need to drop a long way far enough behind Northwestern, but if they did that they would lose their win over Louisville and if not others. The UNI match is already wrong so it won't affect that one
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Post by vbprisoner on Nov 21, 2014 13:10:21 GMT -5
Interesting that Miami is #30 with this methodology and they are always floating around mid 30s in RPI and that always seems to create debate about if they deserve a bid.
Also, Colorado's huge jump in these rankings to #7 (I like them and they are one of my unseeded dark horses)and UNLV's meteoric rise to #18 from how they are ranked currently.
Overall I like having another methodology for comparison. Thank you for all the time and effort you put into to this and hope this is something that you have in template form that may be updated easily for weekly ranking changes.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2014 13:12:42 GMT -5
So IL is an interesting case...It has a score of 6810, but a highly skewed range of 6805-7310! What are these ranges about and how do they get so skewed, especially near the top of the rankings were I would expect less skew to high numbers (except for Stanford, where I would expect some uncertainty about the top end given they haven't lost.) Basically, it means that Illinois is already ranked ahead of everybody they've played, which means that no matter how much you increase their rating, it won't change the number of correct/incorrect results
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Nov 21, 2014 13:17:10 GMT -5
Interesting that Miami is #30 with this methodology and they are always floating around mid 30s in RPI and that always seems to create debate about if they deserve a bid. Also, Colorado's huge jump in these rankings to #7 (I like them and they are one of my unseeded dark horses)and UNLV's meteoric rise to #18 from how they are ranked currently. Overall I like having another methodology for comparison. Thank you for all the time and effort you put into to this and hope this is something that you have in template form that may be updated easily for weekly ranking changes. UNLV doesn't surprise me, because their bad losses are just to Wyoming, and to correct for them they'd have to drop a ton of spots and lose wins against teams like WKU and Seton Hall and Co St and New Mexico. It's no accident they are 155 points from Colorado St.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 21, 2014 13:19:06 GMT -5
My summary of the impact vs. RPI by conference:
1) PAC 12 - I think they are likely to get 4-5 seeds and 9-10 bids. Oregon State, Utah, and ASU are not completely safe and USC still needs to stay above .500. Ultimate Ranking System (URS) would give the PAC 12 6 solid seeds and the same 10 in the tournament. Colorado is helped considerably from URS for getting a seed.
2) Big Ten: They are likely to get 4 seeds and 5-7 bids. URS would translate to the same 4 seeds and 7 bids. Minnesota and Purdue would move from bubble to Purdue in for sure and Minnesota probably in. Michigan is subject to .500 regardless of the system used.
3) Big 12: I think they are likely to get 2 seeds and 5 bids. URS would translate to only 1 seed and 4 bids. Oklahoma is the big loser and whoever the 2nd team that may get a seed under RPI.
4) ACC: I think they will get 2 seeds and 4 bids - and URS translates exactly the same. Really very little difference between the two systems (where it matters).
5) SEC: I think the SEC will get 2-3 seeds and 4-5 bids. URS is only 1 seed and 3-5 bids. Alabama and LSU go from being fairly safe to right on the bubble. Kentucky is out as a seed and A&M would be unlikely.
6) WCC: I think the WCC will get 0-1 seeds and 3-5 bids. URS would give possibly 1 seed (although BYU and LMU would both be in the running) and 5 solid bids. The 3 teams on the bubble would be much safer under URS. Pretty big help for the WCC.
7) Big West: Big West is likely to get 3 bids and only 1-3 bids under URS. Hawaii and CSUN go from pretty safe to right on the bubble.
8) Mountain West: MW goes from 1 seed and probably the only team in the tournament to adding UNLV as a 2nd team and close to getting a seed. Nice improvement for the MW.
9) Big East: RPI is likely to be 2 bids (Creighton and Marquette), while URS goes to 3 (Creighton, Seton Hall, and Marquette). Seton Hall and Marquette are close to the bubble line.
10) Other Conferences: All other conferences are pretty much made out worse or no change. Only Illinois State and Ohio could get an at large bid. And Northern Illinois came out of no where, but probably doesn't get a bid if the committee used URS.
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Post by vbwheatley on Nov 21, 2014 13:23:10 GMT -5
If you flip Washington to #2 and Wisconsin to #3, that would give an additional correct result. Surprised the algorithm wouldn't do that automatically, although maybe it's still running!?
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 21, 2014 13:23:18 GMT -5
i know this is data, but there is something about this that doesn't meet the 'eye' test when used as a ranking (vs. predictor) - like UNLV could it be the variation/consistancy - what I mean is throwing out the best/worst performance (outliers), so that some good teams who had one or two brain fart games don't get penalized - or throw out one best and one worst result
like for UNLV, how much does the CSU win bump them up?
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