Post by Phaedrus on Dec 13, 2014 21:18:03 GMT -5
A short note about the results of the NCAA 1st/2nd rounds. This is a look at the various polls, ranking's and other statistical comparison of teams.
The four compared are: The Infamous RPI, enough has been said about that on this forum, the Pablo, something that Bofa can explain much better than I can, the AVCA coaches poll, and the Rich Kern poll. The Rich Kern poll is a weekly vote set up much like the AVCA poll except it uses avid fans and volleyball cognoscenti from around the country. The only tools the voters have are the results as reported in the Rich Kern site and their passion and knowledge of the volleyball teams around the country.
Here are the facts after the first two rounds:
In the first round:
a. Rich Kern poll got 29 of 32 right. Missed on MSU over LMU, UALR over Kansas, and LSU over Oklahoma.
b. AVCA got 28 of 32 right; in addition to the three above, they missed on Iowa State over W. Kentucky.
c. RPI only got 24 of 32 right, they also missed on Oregon St. over Creighton, Ohio St. over Lipscomb, Illinois St. over Marquette, and Utah over Kansas State.
In the second round:
a. Rich Kern poll got 15 of 16 right, missed on Ohio State over Kentucky – but so did everyone else
b. AVCA got 14 right, missed on UCLA over Long Beach. That match turns out to be the closest poll-relative match; two spots apart in both polls.
c. RPI got 13 right, they also missed on Oregon State over UALR – but that match was a doozy, neutral floor, 19-17 in the 5th. UALR (RPI 31) got everyone's attention; the AVCA had them 30th while Rich Kern had no votes.
d. The total of the 1st/2nd round is Rich Kern 44, AVCA 42, RPI 37 (!)
Pablo also got 44 out of 48 matches right after the first two rounds.
Third Round results
Rich Kern poll is still leading the AVCA by two matches, 50-48. Rich Kern poll got two matches wrong last night, Nebraska over Washington and BYU over Florida State – but so did everyone else, Pablo excepted. Pablo got BYU over FSU correct but missed on Nebraska over Washington.
The Pablo ranking now is leading Rich Kern Poll by one match, 51-50. The RKPI has 44 and the RPI – the worst metric of all – has 43.
How did the polls and rankings do in predicting the sweet sixteen? How many teams in the top 16 made it to the NCAA sweet 16? Rich Kern poll had 14 teams correct – only Oregon State (20) and Ohio State (22) made it that far without being in Rich Kern top 16. No other system did as well. AVCA had 13 of 16 – they missed on UCLA, ranked them 17th while Kern Poll had them 16th. RKPI and RPI got 12 right, while Pablo had 13.
Maybe the NCAA will wake up from its collective amnesia and realize its RPI system is flawed, and turn to outside sources for information and ranking. The tournament should be ranked/seeded/bracketed better than it is – but the NCAA must open their eyes and more importantly their minds.
The four compared are: The Infamous RPI, enough has been said about that on this forum, the Pablo, something that Bofa can explain much better than I can, the AVCA coaches poll, and the Rich Kern poll. The Rich Kern poll is a weekly vote set up much like the AVCA poll except it uses avid fans and volleyball cognoscenti from around the country. The only tools the voters have are the results as reported in the Rich Kern site and their passion and knowledge of the volleyball teams around the country.
Here are the facts after the first two rounds:
In the first round:
a. Rich Kern poll got 29 of 32 right. Missed on MSU over LMU, UALR over Kansas, and LSU over Oklahoma.
b. AVCA got 28 of 32 right; in addition to the three above, they missed on Iowa State over W. Kentucky.
c. RPI only got 24 of 32 right, they also missed on Oregon St. over Creighton, Ohio St. over Lipscomb, Illinois St. over Marquette, and Utah over Kansas State.
In the second round:
a. Rich Kern poll got 15 of 16 right, missed on Ohio State over Kentucky – but so did everyone else
b. AVCA got 14 right, missed on UCLA over Long Beach. That match turns out to be the closest poll-relative match; two spots apart in both polls.
c. RPI got 13 right, they also missed on Oregon State over UALR – but that match was a doozy, neutral floor, 19-17 in the 5th. UALR (RPI 31) got everyone's attention; the AVCA had them 30th while Rich Kern had no votes.
d. The total of the 1st/2nd round is Rich Kern 44, AVCA 42, RPI 37 (!)
Pablo also got 44 out of 48 matches right after the first two rounds.
Third Round results
Rich Kern poll is still leading the AVCA by two matches, 50-48. Rich Kern poll got two matches wrong last night, Nebraska over Washington and BYU over Florida State – but so did everyone else, Pablo excepted. Pablo got BYU over FSU correct but missed on Nebraska over Washington.
The Pablo ranking now is leading Rich Kern Poll by one match, 51-50. The RKPI has 44 and the RPI – the worst metric of all – has 43.
How did the polls and rankings do in predicting the sweet sixteen? How many teams in the top 16 made it to the NCAA sweet 16? Rich Kern poll had 14 teams correct – only Oregon State (20) and Ohio State (22) made it that far without being in Rich Kern top 16. No other system did as well. AVCA had 13 of 16 – they missed on UCLA, ranked them 17th while Kern Poll had them 16th. RKPI and RPI got 12 right, while Pablo had 13.
Maybe the NCAA will wake up from its collective amnesia and realize its RPI system is flawed, and turn to outside sources for information and ranking. The tournament should be ranked/seeded/bracketed better than it is – but the NCAA must open their eyes and more importantly their minds.
, I didn't count VT! So you were correct.