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Post by vbnerd on May 23, 2015 18:47:40 GMT -5
They just can't lose to teams that they shouldnt lose to. They cant lose to teams like SLU and ARk Pine Bluff. You can't beat Pine Bluff. Even when you beat them they are going to be like 6-20 and are in the SWAC so they take a chunk out of your S0S.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on May 23, 2015 21:29:42 GMT -5
Pre season tournaments.... I have to wonder.... RPI worthy in mid/late November??? This RPI schedule is likely to be much better.
Last year - Purdue's opponents were .521 (.528 in games not including Purdue). 2015 opponents with 2014 record is .569. Purdue's 2014 RPI would have been in the mid 30's (a clear tournament team) if they produced the same record with the 2015 schedule. 2015 opponents with their 2013 record would also have been .569.
There are no guarantees on how your non-con opponents will do - but I would suggest that Purdue did what they needed to do in scheduling this year. These are all teams they could/should beat.
I am rather optimistic about Purdue's team this year - however, I also think the Big 10 will likely be much stronger/deeper than last year. In theory - this will also help Purdue's SOS - and to a certain extent, they may benefit with a better record by virtue of having the easiest B1G conference schedule.
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Post by c4ndlelight on May 23, 2015 21:54:41 GMT -5
Pre season tournaments.... I have to wonder.... RPI worthy in mid/late November??? This RPI schedule is likely to be much better.
Last year - Purdue's opponents were .521 (.528 in games not including Purdue). 2015 opponents with 2014 record is .569. Purdue's 2014 RPI would have been in the mid 30's (a clear tournament team) if they produced the same record with the 2015 schedule. 2015 opponents with their 2013 record would also have been .569.
There are no guarantees on how your non-con opponents will do - but I would suggest that Purdue did what they needed to do in scheduling this year. These are all teams they could/should beat.
I am rather optimistic about Purdue's team this year - however, I also think the Big 10 will likely be much stronger/deeper than last year. In theory - this will also help Purdue's SOS - and to a certain extent, they may benefit with a better record by virtue of having the easiest B1G conference schedule.
The schedule is better for RPI, but they are still not playing the game optimally. They have a bit more margin for error for making the tourney, but, combined with the soft-as-possible B1G schedule, they will have to do really well to pull a seed. Whether they can do that depends on if Smith is ready to go come September and the setting works out, IMO.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on May 24, 2015 8:25:30 GMT -5
As a point of reference - here are the Opponent w/l% for the 16 seeded teams last year.
Nebraska .647 Florida State .636 Kansas .635 Stanford .633 Texas .633 Oregon .621 UCLA .620 Illinois .604 North Carolina .601 Washington .601 Arizona .597 Wisconsin .594 Florida .589 Kentucky .561 Colorado State .555 Penn State .553
Purdue's schedule is likely to be on the very low end for teams getting a seed. Purdue goes 25-6 - then I suspect they will get a seed, but 25-6 seems like a very tall order. Penn State's schedule tells us why they couldn't get a top RPI.
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Post by bmg3 on May 24, 2015 13:13:57 GMT -5
Purdue getting a seed would be awesome - but realistically, not sure if we can bet on it. Regardless, just looking forward to the development of Cuttino, Stahl, and Evans. Can't help but keep holding out for Stahl to have a breakout performance - hope this summer helps her game. I compared her to Wisconsin's Bates at the beginning of the season - and Bates was quite impressive last season, Stahl wasn't as much. I am hoping for the same type of performance from her this year - especially considering her amazing athleticism and that vertical.
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Post by spoilerboilermakers on May 24, 2015 15:24:17 GMT -5
This RPI schedule is likely to be much better.
Last year - Purdue's opponents were .521 (.528 in games not including Purdue). 2015 opponents with 2014 record is .569. Purdue's 2014 RPI would have been in the mid 30's (a clear tournament team) if they produced the same record with the 2015 schedule. 2015 opponents with their 2013 record would also have been .569.
There are no guarantees on how your non-con opponents will do - but I would suggest that Purdue did what they needed to do in scheduling this year. These are all teams they could/should beat.
I am rather optimistic about Purdue's team this year - however, I also think the Big 10 will likely be much stronger/deeper than last year. In theory - this will also help Purdue's SOS - and to a certain extent, they may benefit with a better record by virtue of having the easiest B1G conference schedule.
The schedule is better for RPI, but they are still not playing the game optimally. They have a bit more margin for error for making the tourney, but, combined with the soft-as-possible B1G schedule, they will have to do really well to pull a seed. Whether they can do that depends on if Smith is ready to go come September and the setting works out, IMO. This may be a stupid question but I'll ask it anyway...does Purdue control their B1G schedule at all? I think that someone said Purdue's schedule was soft last year and it looks like it's another weak schedule this coming year. I thought that all B1G teams have no say in the matter of scheduling and Purdue cannot help it that they have been lucky schedule-wise.
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Post by ay2013 on May 24, 2015 15:28:05 GMT -5
The schedule is better for RPI, but they are still not playing the game optimally. They have a bit more margin for error for making the tourney, but, combined with the soft-as-possible B1G schedule, they will have to do really well to pull a seed. Whether they can do that depends on if Smith is ready to go come September and the setting works out, IMO. This may be a stupid question but I'll ask it anyway...does Purdue control their B1G schedule at all? I think that someone said Purdue's schedule was soft last year and it looks like it's another weak schedule this coming year. I thought that all B1G teams have no say in the matter of scheduling and Purdue cannot help it that they have been lucky schedule-wise. I don't think so
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Post by ay2013 on May 24, 2015 15:40:45 GMT -5
Pre season tournaments.... I have to wonder.... RPI worthy in mid/late November??? This RPI schedule is likely to be much better.
Last year - Purdue's opponents were .521 (.528 in games not including Purdue). 2015 opponents with 2014 record is .569. Purdue's 2014 RPI would have been in the mid 30's (a clear tournament team) if they produced the same record with the 2015 schedule. 2015 opponents with their 2013 record would also have been .569.
There are no guarantees on how your non-con opponents will do - but I would suggest that Purdue did what they needed to do in scheduling this year. These are all teams they could/should beat.
I am rather optimistic about Purdue's team this year - however, I also think the Big 10 will likely be much stronger/deeper than last year. In theory - this will also help Purdue's SOS - and to a certain extent, they may benefit with a better record by virtue of having the easiest B1G conference schedule.
The big difference is the *BASED ON LAST YEAR*. No doubt that with THIS preseason schedule LAST year, Purdue would have easily made the tournament. BYU, LSU, Ohio, Miami FL all had VERY good (in terms of RPI) win-loss percentages...but will they equal that this year? Probably not, given what these teams lose. Now it will PROBABLY be offset some of the lower teams getting more wins, but at what variance, and also these teams opponents win-loss percentage will directly impact the last 25% of Purdue's RPI. This schedule is surely better, BUT with the unbalanced Big 10 schedule hurting Purdue, I think a number of things have to go "right" for Purdue to get near seed talks (the Big 10 do VERY well OOC, which will likely happen given the HCA and team make up, and Purdue do VERY well in the Big 10...perhaps). Now all of this is of course hypothetical, you and I both know that general SOS will be determined once conference play begins and we'll have a much better idea of the record Purdue will need in relation to other teams. But I too surely think they have the OOC schedule to be a tournament team, I'm just not convinced it's one that gives them the safety cushion that other Big 10 teams will get by playing in the Big 10.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on May 24, 2015 16:35:22 GMT -5
This RPI schedule is likely to be much better.
Last year - Purdue's opponents were .521 (.528 in games not including Purdue). 2015 opponents with 2014 record is .569. Purdue's 2014 RPI would have been in the mid 30's (a clear tournament team) if they produced the same record with the 2015 schedule. 2015 opponents with their 2013 record would also have been .569.
There are no guarantees on how your non-con opponents will do - but I would suggest that Purdue did what they needed to do in scheduling this year. These are all teams they could/should beat.
I am rather optimistic about Purdue's team this year - however, I also think the Big 10 will likely be much stronger/deeper than last year. In theory - this will also help Purdue's SOS - and to a certain extent, they may benefit with a better record by virtue of having the easiest B1G conference schedule.
The big difference is the *BASED ON LAST YEAR*. No doubt that with THIS preseason schedule LAST year, Purdue would have easily made the tournament. BYU, LSU, Ohio, Miami FL all had VERY good (in terms of RPI) win-loss percentages...but will they equal that this year? Probably not, given what these teams lose. Now it will PROBABLY be offset some of the lower teams getting more wins, but at what variance, and also these teams opponents win-loss percentage will directly impact the last 25% of Purdue's RPI. This schedule is surely better, BUT with the unbalanced Big 10 schedule hurting Purdue, I think a number of things have to go "right" for Purdue to get near seed talks (the Big 10 do VERY well OOC, which will likely happen given the HCA and team make up, and Purdue do VERY well in the Big 10...perhaps). Now all of this is of course hypothetical, you and I both know that general SOS will be determined once conference play begins and we'll have a much better idea of the record Purdue will need in relation to other teams. But I too surely think they have the OOC schedule to be a tournament team, I'm just not convinced it's one that gives them the safety cushion that other Big 10 teams will get by playing in the Big 10. Everything you (and c4ndlelight) have written about RPI and Purdue has been factually correct and I have no disagreements. I believe these are realistic outcomes that are probably on the pessimistic side.
We do not know how the 11 non conference teams (or the rest of the Big 10) will perform this year - but I believe Purdue has done what they needed to do. It may not work out, every team is taking chances. I don't think Purdue thought about this last year.
A potentially big issue for the Big 10 and particularly for Purdue is how Rutgers performs in the non conference. Last year they went 7-6 - due to playing a very weak schedule. According to Pablo, they were only favored to win 4 of those 13 games with a win expectance of 5.8 wins. It is important that they have an easy schedule and come close to repeating a 7-6 record. Otherwise there is the potential for an RPI mini-disaster.
It is my understanding that the Big 10 conference schedule is the same teams as the 2014 schedule. I didn't verify with Purdue's schedule, but assumed it was the same as last year. Coaches have zero impact on this. No idea why the Big 10 wouldn't mix up the unbalanced schedules each year?
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Post by bmg3 on May 24, 2015 17:12:30 GMT -5
I read somewhere that they just used last years schedule but flipped home/away?
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Post by rainbowbadger on May 25, 2015 17:51:51 GMT -5
That's correct. It's the 2014 schedule, with home/away flipped.
The coaches could not agree on a format. Some wanted divisions, some wanted a tournament, etc. They went around and around, and finally punted it to the ADs, who phoned it in.
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Post by BoilerUp! on May 25, 2015 22:10:14 GMT -5
That's correct. It's the 2014 schedule, with home/away flipped. The coaches could not agree on a format. Some wanted divisions, some wanted a tournament, etc. They went around and around, and finally punted it to the ADs, who phoned it in. I was trying to find the original discussion about this & failed. Wasn't it back in December? It sure seemed like the coaches thought something better should be possible.
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Post by bc2016 on May 28, 2015 12:51:58 GMT -5
That's correct. It's the 2014 schedule, with home/away flipped. The coaches could not agree on a format. Some wanted divisions, some wanted a tournament, etc. They went around and around, and finally punted it to the ADs, who phoned it in. That was stupid! Last year's scheduling failed, so let's do it again? Just do the tournament & create excitement!!
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Post by spoilerboilermakers on May 28, 2015 16:26:43 GMT -5
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Post by InTheKnow on May 28, 2015 17:12:38 GMT -5
Expecting a big year for Purdue. Saw them in the Spring and they are in position to play at a high level.
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