Pablo Ultimate Rankings Oct 5

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

This week's Pablo Ultimate Rankings. Pablo Ultimate Rankings are designed to provide the best reflection of winners and losers in matches that have been played so far this season. This week's rankings has the correct winner for 91.8% of the matches that have been played this year. The rankings show both the team's rating and the "range", which is how much the team rating can be changed (with a max of 500) without decreasing the quality of the ranking, as described by the number of matches correctly reflected in the rankings.

HCA 202

Rank	Team	Rating	Range
1	USC	7965	7465 - 8465
2	Kansas	7555	7240 - 8055
3	Nebraska	7355	7355 - 7355
4	Washington	7270	7130 - 7770
5	Texas	7245	7155 - 7745
6	Arizona State	7165	6665 - 7665
6	BYU	7165	6840 - 7665
8	Ohio State	7155	7155 - 7155
9	Penn State	7150	6810 - 7150
10	Arkansas	7035	6860 - 7350
11	Minnesota	7010	6855 - 7010
12	Wyoming	6955	6955 - 7350
13	UCLA	6925	6665 - 7065
14	Wisconsin	6855	6855 - 7030
15	Purdue	6835	6835 - 7160
16	Stanford	6810	6810 - 6810
17	Ohio	6805	6685 - 6850
18	Louisville	6650	6605 - 6650
19	Michigan	6630	6130 - 6630
20	North Carolina	6610	6610 - 6850
21	Illinois	6585	6485 - 6805
22	Florida State	6560	6305 - 6640
22	Missouri	6560	6555 - 6560
24	Arkansas State	6550	6515 - 6555
25	SMU	6535	6535 - 6925
26	Santa Clara	6530	6100 - 6530
27	Marquette	6515	6515 - 7015
28	Creighton	6485	6485 - 6650
29	Kentucky	6480	6450 - 6480
30	Hawaii	6460	6240 - 6720
31	Florida	6440	6360 - 6660
32	Colorado State	6425	5925 - 6510
33	Saint Louis	6360	6360 - 6545
34	Missouri State	6310	6240 - 6310
34	Iowa State	6310	6310 - 6310
34	Texas A&M	6310	6225 - 6310
37	San Diego	6300	6290 - 6530
38	Arizona	6275	5995 - 6605
39	Miami-OH	6240	6240 - 6480
39	Washington State	6240	5840 - 6740
41	Idaho State	6225	6190 - 6235
42	Miami-FL	6170	5985 - 6510
42	TCU	6170	5795 - 6500
44	Iowa	6165	6110 - 6660
45	Northwestern	6145	5970 - 6185
46	Virginia	6110	6110 - 6360
47	Colorado	6085	5635 - 6095
48	Murray State	6050	5720 - 6550
49	Dayton	6040	6040 - 6510
50	Utah	6035	6035 - 6190
50	Michigan State	6035	5940 - 6035
50	Western Kentucky	6035	5945 - 6035
53	San Francisco	6025	5740 - 6095
54	Villanova	6010	5990 - 6035
55	Syracuse	5995	5735 - 6275
56	Oregon	5990	5990 - 5990
57	Northern Arizona	5985	5985 - 5985
57	Boise State	5985	5945 - 5985
57	Pacific	5985	5885 - 5985
60	Kansas State	5945	5885 - 6370
61	Rice	5940	5885 - 5940
62	New Mexico State	5895	5785 - 6395
63	Cal Poly	5890	5890 - 5985
64	Illinois State	5885	5885 - 5945
64	Sacramento State	5885	5790 - 5885
64	Long Beach State	5885	5885 - 5885
67	Mississippi State	5855	5855 - 6355
68	Oklahoma	5835	5835 - 5835
68	Denver	5835	5810 - 5835
70	Gonzaga	5830	5785 - 5830
71	Texas-San Antonio	5790	5790 - 6165
72	IUPUI	5785	5785 - 6030
72	UNC Wilmington	5785	5785 - 5880
72	Cleveland State	5785	5785 - 6240
72	Pepperdine	5785	5785 - 6220
72	Baylor	5785	5740 - 5785
72	James Madison	5785	5785 - 6210
72	Indiana	5785	5785 - 5785
72	Wichita State	5785	5685 - 5785
72	Temple	5785	5700 - 5785
72	UC Irvine	5785	5785 - 5940
82	Appalachian State	5780	5280 - 5780
82	LSU	5780	5780 - 5780
84	Xavier	5775	5765 - 5775
84	Houston	5775	5700 - 5835
86	Loyola-Chicago	5765	5765 - 5940
86	Coastal Carolina	5765	5740 - 5775
88	Chattanooga	5740	5740 - 6055
88	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	5740	5740 - 6145
90	Duke	5735	5650 - 5830
90	Pittsburgh	5735	5310 - 5735
92	Towson	5715	5700 - 5985
93	Loyola Marymount	5680	5310 - 5680
94	Harvard	5663	5663 - 5663
95	Ole Miss	5650	5650 - 5650
96	Tennessee	5645	5295 - 5645
97	Texas Tech	5635	5635 - 5635
98	Northern Iowa	5560	5490 - 5715
98	Southern Illinois	5560	5435 - 5560
100	Furman	5545	5310 - 6045
101	Texas-Arlington	5535	5135 - 5535
101	Virginia Tech	5535	5535 - 5535
101	St. Johns	5535	5535 - 5820
101	Georgia Tech	5535	5330 - 5535
105	Auburn	5530	5445 - 5530
106	New Mexico	5525	5490 - 5575
107	Seattle	5520	5520 - 5780
108	Indiana State	5515	5515 - 5580
109	Oakland	5510	5510 - 5510
110	George Washington	5505	5300 - 5505
111	North Dakota State	5495	5495 - 5510
111	UCF	5495	5495 - 5495
111	UNF	5495	5495 - 5535
111	North Dakota	5495	5320 - 5495
115	Florida Atlantic	5490	5490 - 5490
116	Wisconsin-Green Bay	5485	5485 - 5695
117	Portland	5480	5315 - 5480
118	Seton Hall	5465	5155 - 5515
119	NC State	5445	5445 - 5445
120	Stephen F. Austin	5435	5435 - 5530
121	Oregon State	5400	5325 - 5780
122	American	5365	4895 - 5865
123	Hofstra	5355	5310 - 5355
123	Rhode Island	5355	5095 - 5530
125	Kennesaw State	5335	5335 - 5380
125	Arkansas-Little Rock	5335	5335 - 5335
127	Yale	5330	5155 - 5490
127	North Texas	5330	5330 - 5330
129	Cal	5315	5315 - 5315
129	UNLV	5315	5265 - 5315
131	Kent State	5310	5310 - 5310
131	Nevada	5310	5215 - 5310
133	Western Michigan	5305	5075 - 5420
134	Maryland	5295	5155 - 5500
135	Florida International	5290	5290 - 5290
136	Northern Illinois	5285	5285 - 5355
136	Lipscomb	5285	4990 - 5285
136	Saint Marys	5285	4990 - 5330
136	Texas State	5285	5135 - 5285
136	San Jose State	5285	5285 - 5320
141	Eastern Michigan	5275	5115 - 5485
142	Northern Colorado	5220	5220 - 5220
143	Delaware	5215	5215 - 5215
144	Marshall	5210	5210 - 5285
144	Boston College	5210	5150 - 5210
146	Southern Miss	5190	5130 - 5285
147	Valparaiso	5180	5135 - 5305
148	Wake Forest	5155	5155 - 5210
149	UMKC	5150	4650 - 5315
150	UC Davis	5140	4925 - 5190
151	Memphis	5135	5135 - 5135
152	Tulsa	5125	5125 - 5125
153	San Diego State	5120	5120 - 5195
154	Eastern Washington	5115	5115 - 5115
155	Portland State	5110	5110 - 5275
156	Central Arkansas	5105	4720 - 5330
157	Army	5095	5015 - 5315
158	West Virginia	5085	5010 - 5150
159	Fresno State	5080	4940 - 5080
160	Florida Gulf Coast	5075	5030 - 5285
161	Butler	5040	5040 - 5330
162	College of Charleston	5035	5035 - 5125
163	Jacksonville	5025	4920 - 5210
164	Idaho	5020	5020 - 5290
165	Air Force	5010	4920 - 5090
166	South Dakota	4990	4990 - 5035
166	Cal State Northridge	4990	4990 - 4990
168	East Tennessee State	4960	4960 - 4960
168	CSU Bakersfield	4960	4460 - 4960
170	Dartmouth	4950	4950 - 5305
171	New Hampshire	4945	4945 - 4945
172	Georgia	4935	4935 - 5330
173	Drake	4925	4925 - 4990
174	Oral Roberts	4920	4740 - 4920
175	Southern Utah	4910	4805 - 4910
175	Cincinnati	4910	4790 - 4910
177	Notre Dame	4895	4790 - 4990
178	Sam Houston State	4865	4580 - 5080
179	DePaul	4835	4790 - 4835
180	Alabama	4830	4560 - 4830
181	USF	4825	4510 - 4870
182	UC Riverside	4800	4675 - 5280
183	Providence	4785	4785 - 5115
183	Illinois-Chicago	4785	4785 - 4905
183	UCSB	4785	4785 - 4785
183	Utah Valley	4785	4785 - 4785
183	Ball State	4785	4540 - 4785
183	UTEP	4785	4785 - 4810
183	Abilene Christian	4785	4285 - 4785
183	Louisiana-Monroe	4785	4785 - 4910
183	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	4785	4295 - 4785
183	Brown	4785	4785 - 4985
183	South Alabama	4785	4585 - 4785
194	Lamar	4780	4335 - 4780
195	South Carolina	4760	4760 - 5240
195	Clemson	4760	4760 - 4760
195	Troy University	4760	4760 - 4940
198	Albany	4740	4615 - 4740
198	Southeastern Louisiana	4740	4740 - 4910
200	Nebraska-Omaha	4720	4220 - 4720
201	South Carolina Upstate	4715	4495 - 4820
201	Charlotte	4715	4715 - 4715
203	UConn	4710	4710 - 4930
203	Liberty	4710	4540 - 4710
205	Eastern Illinois	4690	4555 - 4785
206	Weber State	4675	4640 - 4800
207	Youngstown State	4640	4585 - 4755
207	Manhattan College	4640	4640 - 4675
209	Belmont	4610	4490 - 4735
209	Siena	4610	4440 - 5110
211	UNC Greensboro	4605	4350 - 4735
212	Utah State	4600	4585 - 4705
213	Lehigh	4595	4580 - 5095
214	Sacred Heart	4580	4080 - 4580
215	Duquesne	4555	4490 - 5055
216	Central Michigan	4550	4520 - 4685
216	High Point	4550	4410 - 4805
218	Cornell	4540	4540 - 4985
219	George Mason	4535	4535 - 4535
219	Montana State	4535	4535 - 5035
219	Houston Baptist	4535	4535 - 4535
219	Tulane	4535	4065 - 4535
219	Penn	4535	4535 - 4535
219	Samford	4535	4510 - 4535
225	Winthrop	4515	4515 - 4755
226	McNeese State	4505	4185 - 4530
227	Wright State	4495	4495 - 4580
227	UNC Asheville	4495	4495 - 4495
229	Stony Brook	4480	4290 - 4840
230	Marist	4435	4000 - 4435
231	Davidson	4430	4335 - 4495
232	Wofford	4370	4335 - 4405
233	VCU	4330	4330 - 4330
233	Princeton	4330	4330 - 4330
235	Radford	4290	4290 - 4290
235	Campbell	4290	4290 - 4750
237	Bethune-Cookman	4285	4285 - 4285
237	Robert Morris	4285	4285 - 4285
237	Binghamton	4285	4285 - 4285
237	Buffalo	4285	4285 - 4475
237	Montana	4285	3930 - 4285
242	Colgate	4280	4280 - 4535
243	IPFW	4270	4270 - 4280
243	Northern Kentucky	4270	4270 - 4270
245	Incarnate Word	4265	4265 - 4735
246	Central Connecticut State	4245	4005 - 4580
247	Florida A&M	4230	3730 - 4485
248	William & Mary	4210	4205 - 4365
249	UMBC	4205	4205 - 4210
249	Western Carolina	4205	4170 - 4205
251	Bryant	4200	4075 - 4200
252	UT Martin	4185	4185 - 4185
253	Eastern Kentucky	4180	4070 - 4405
254	East Carolina	4165	4010 - 4370
255	New Orleans	4160	3890 - 4580
256	Rutgers	4125	3880 - 4125
256	Middle Tennessee	4125	3880 - 4125
258	Toledo	4090	4090 - 4435
258	Coppin State	4090	3885 - 4405
260	Georgetown	4085	4085 - 4085
260	Cal State Fullerton	4085	3585 - 4550
262	Bowling Green	4080	4070 - 4080
262	Howard	4080	4005 - 4080
262	LIU Brooklyn	4080	3580 - 4080
265	Bucknell	4075	3955 - 4075
266	Evansville	4065	4010 - 4065
267	Texas-Rio Grand Valley	4060	4030 - 4060
267	Louisiana-Lafayette	4060	3835 - 4060
269	Nicholls State	4035	4035 - 4060
270	Mercer	4030	3530 - 4030
271	Louisiana Tech	4025	3990 - 4055
272	Tennessee Tech	4005	4005 - 4060
272	Stetson	4005	4005 - 4280
272	Maryland Eastern Shore	4005	3890 - 4005
272	Morgan State	4005	3890 - 4245
276	Austin Peay	3985	3865 - 3985
276	Jacksonville State	3985	3985 - 3985
278	Southeast Missouri	3980	3980 - 3980
279	Grand Canyon	3970	3470 - 4470
280	La Salle	3950	3540 - 4070
281	Northeastern	3925	3925 - 4005
282	South Dakota State	3920	3920 - 3920
283	Columbia	3915	3725 - 3915
284	Georgia State	3910	3640 - 4085
285	Presbyterian	3885	3885 - 4000
285	Fordham	3885	3885 - 3885
287	Northwestern State	3860	3860 - 3980
288	Tennessee State	3855	3855 - 3855
289	Morehead State	3790	3785 - 3940
290	SIUE	3785	3785 - 3800
290	UAB	3785	3785 - 3985
292	Akron	3780	3440 - 3780
293	Bradley	3775	3275 - 3775
294	Fairleigh Dickinson	3740	3740 - 3785
294	Lafayette	3740	3590 - 3740
296	The Citadel	3705	3645 - 3980
297	Georgia Southern	3650	3150 - 3650
298	Navy	3640	3640 - 3980
298	Canisius	3640	3640 - 3640
300	Loyola University Maryland	3635	3135 - 3635
301	Alabama State	3595	3110 - 3595
302	Fairfield	3575	3565 - 3645
303	NJIT	3560	3560 - 3570
303	Rider	3560	3105 - 3560
305	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	3545	3545 - 4005
306	Texas Southern	3540	3075 - 3540
307	Niagara	3445	3375 - 3505
308	Gardner-Webb	3440	2940 - 3500
309	Alabama A&M	3395	3395 - 3700
310	Charleston Southern	3345	3345 - 3445
311	Southern	3340	3340 - 3340
312	Iona	3305	3305 - 3435
313	Holy Cross	3300	3265 - 3300
314	Chicago State	3240	3240 - 3740
315	Western Illinois	3235	2915 - 3235
316	Hartford	3165	2665 - 3295
317	Elon	3140	2705 - 3140
318	South Carolina State	3110	3110 - 3610
319	St. Francis-PA	3100	2960 - 3600
320	Prairie View A&M	3070	2570 - 3535
321	UMass-Lowell	3060	2560 - 3095
322	Delaware State	2950	2880 - 3095
323	Jackson State	2915	2415 - 3235
323	Grambling State	2915	2415 - 3135
325	North Carolina Central	2905	2700 - 2905
326	North Carolina A&T	2875	2550 - 2945
327	Hampton	2850	2350 - 3350
328	St. Francis-Brooklyn	2755	2755 - 2895
329	Saint Peters	2750	2250 - 2750
330	Alcorn State	2715	2215 - 2985
331	Norfolk State	2695	2195 - 2900
332	Quinnipiac	2550	2550 - 2550
333	Savannah State	2165	1665 - 2665
334	Mississippi Valley State	2050	1550 - 2550

[bigfanofbigfan]

Wow, Kansas #2 and ASU #6..interesting....

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Kansas can be dropped a little but not much - still top 6. Arizona St can be moved significantly and not affect the performance of the model. Any undefeated team can always be moved up without changing anything, because they haven't lost to anyone above them. The real question is how far down can they go.

[bigfanofbigfan]

Oct 6, 2015 11:27:19 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Kansas can be dropped a little but not much - still top 6. Arizona St can be moved significantly and not affect the performance of the model. Any undefeated team can always be moved up without changing anything, because they haven't lost to anyone above them. The real question is how far down can they go.

make sense..thank you for this btw

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Oct 6, 2015 11:28:17 GMT -5 bigfanofbigfan said:

Oct 6, 2015 11:27:19 GMT -5 The Bofa on the Sofa said:

Kansas can be dropped a little but not much - still top 6. Arizona St can be moved significantly and not affect the performance of the model. Any undefeated team can always be moved up without changing anything, because they haven't lost to anyone above them. The real question is how far down can they go.

make sense..thank you for this btw

Your welcome.

For what it's worth (and I don't claim that is much; I do it just for fun because I can)

[The Bofa on the Sofa]

Someone in previous weeks asked how well PURs do in terms of prediction. I remember I did that analysis last winter when I first starting doing this ranking, but don't remember the results. However, I just looked at the results for last week. PUR was overall 250 - 76, 76.7%. In contrast, regular Pablo rankings were 268 - 18, 82.2%. That's a pretty big difference. In terms of matches correctly reflected, this week's PUR was 91.8%, whereas regular Pablo was 84.7. So optimizing things for predictability sacrifices wins and losses in the results that occurred, and vice-versa.