Post by trojansc on Oct 28, 2015 7:14:22 GMT -5
Bracketology (10/26)
This is the last week I'll do this in this format. Next week I will focus more solely on bubble teams, seeded teams, team profiles, and ignore going conference by conference.
If I had to put my best guess forward today by who the 64 teams are in the tournament, this is what I'd predict would happen. RPI numbers are in Parentheses front of team name.
ACC
(15) Florida St. remains undefeated at 10-0 in the ACC and (18) Louisville also matches FSU's mark at 10-0. (32) North Carolina moves to 8-2. If they beat Louisville this Friday, I could potentially see them winning out in the ACC. Still don't see that as good enough for a seed - but certainly good going into the tournament. On the flipside, the chances of them not getting into the tournament are slim. They have many chances to slip up, but I don't see it happening. I think they will be able to avenge their loss against Pittsburgh, beat Virginia Tech at home and Virginia on the road. (37) Miami is doing well in RPI terms, but only has one top 50 win. its actually a top-25 win if Purdue finishes top-25 this season in RPI. They have a few chances left against Louisville and Florida State, both at home, and also a match against Virginia who could finish top 50. (41) Virginia Is a team who I could see squeaking into the NCAA tournament if they win late. They've got four big games left (at Florida St, North Carolina, at Miami, at Pitt) If they take two of those, I certainly think they are going to be a team in the consideration. Virginia has wins over Iowa State and Loyola Marymount who could finish as top-25 teams. (56) Pittsburgh also has a chance to play themselves into the NCAA's, but their route is harder than Virginia's. Pittsburgh's only top-50 win is over North Carolina and they have a weaker RPI than Virginia. (62) Syracuse has an RPI that makes them appear to be in striking range, but I don't see it happening. Their best win is over UVA. They have chances against Lousiville and North Carolina, and unless they win both of them, I don't see them as a team in consideration. (79) Virginia Tech was a team who I thought would be good this year -- they started off great but I think the loss to Indiana was season-changing.
Prediction:
Florida St. is seeded and champions of the ACC
North Carolina, and Virginia receive bids to the NCAA tournament.
(4 bids from the ACC)
AMERICA EAST
(164) New Hampshire keeps on winning. Albany is still right behind at 6-1. They will likely be the #1 and #2 seeds. UMBC and Stony Brook tied at 4-3. With only five games reamining for each team, and only the top four qualifying for the America East tournament, the only other team to squeak in to the AM East Tournament would be Binghamton. They are 2-5 in conference. Unlikely, but if they beat both UMBC and Stony Brook I can see them jumping one of them with a late run here. New Hampshire has only dropped one set in conference play. Hartford has still not won a match this season.
Prediction:
New Hampshire repeats as Am East champions.
(1 bid from America East)
AAC
(30) Southern Methodist won its 9th straight match against Memphis this weekend. They are the frontrunner for the AAC regular season championship, which will give them an NCAA berth. They are still threatened by (90) Temple who at 7-3 is 2 games behind 9-1 SMU. Temple shot itself in the knee by losing to Uconn, and now in the foot by losing to Houston. Temple still has hope though -- they play SMU in Philadelphia later in the season. 10 matches remain in AAC conference play so there is still time. Houston is a long shot but has beaten both the top two teams in the AAC -- but only boasts a 5-4 conference record. (87) Cincinnati, Memphis, and Tulsa also have 5-4 records. Tulane is the bottom dweller at 1-9. A sad story for that program who looked to be on the rise a couple of years ago.
Prediction:
Southern Methodist wins AAC as regular season chamipons.
(1 bid from AAC)
ATLANTIC 10
(35) Dayton still undefeated in the A-10. They picked up a couple of big wins this week, a non-conference game at Xavier and a conference home match against (68) Saint Louis. They look favored to be the #1 seed in the A-10 tournament. Virginia Commonwealth would be the last team in the A-10 tournament right now, with Davidson, George Mason a game behind and Fordham two games behind. Dayton is going to be an interesting case if their RPI holds up. Right now, they are projected losing only one conference game and that finishes them at 31 in RPI. If they finish around 30-35 in RPI and with only one-top 25 win and no other top 50 wins, will that be good enough to get them in? I think so, but everyone else on the bubble is going to be praying that Dayton does not get upset in the A-10 tournament. I don't see Saint Louis getting into the at-large discussion either. Dayton may be this year's Lipscomb.
Prediction:
Gonna be optimistic for bubble teams and say Dayton wins the A-10 Tournament.
(1 bid from A-10)
ATLANTIC SUN
(85) Florida Gulf Coast and (74) Lipscomb remain atop the A-SUN standings. They look to be the #1 and #2 teams at the A-SUN tournament. Kennesaw State and Jacksonville are at 5-3 tied for third, two games behind the leaders. North Florida and Stetson look to be the 5th and 6th teams into the tournament. USC Upstate and NJIT only have one win in conference. Maybe Upstate could go on a late run and squeeze in -- but not looking good so far. Upstate went fives sets with Kennesaw, a win would have been really huge.
Prediction:
FGCU wins the A-SUN tournament and gets a bid to the NCAA's.
(1 bid from the A-SUN)
BIG 10
There was some shakeup in the Big Ten last week, and while I Thought Minnesota was a dangerous team earlier, I didn't expect them to be on top at this point in the season. (4) Ohio State, (6) Minnesota, (7) Nebraska, (8) Penn State, and now even (11) Wisconsin all look to be seeded teams. Wisconsin really helped its case after looking like they were going to be unseeded. The BIG looks to be a very deep conference, and every team will be dangerous in the tournament. (22) Purdue, (25) Illinois, and (29) Michigan all look to be NCAA tournament teams. (33) Northwestern and (34) Michigan State look to be on the bubble, but have chances to prove themselves as NCAA tournament teams. (48) Iowa hasn't won a conference match, but still has a top-50 RPI. I guess magically they could turn their season around, but its unlikely.
Prediction:
Ohio State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin all seeded.
Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, and yes even Northwestern are NCAA-tournament teams. 10 this time from the B1G not the PAC!
(10 bids from the Big 10)
BIG 12
(3) Texas and (9) Kansas look like seeded teams. (21) Iowa State needs to beat Kansas or Texas to be seeded, and a win against Kansas will probably not be enough. Iowa St. should be in the NCAA's, the question is could (39) Baylor get into consideration. Baylor has a top-50 win over Dayton, and has chances against Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas to get into the NCAA tournament. (49) TCU beat Baylor already, but has another match against the Bears. The winner of that could be the team into the NCAA's.
Prediction:
Texas and Kansas seeded.
Iowa State and Baylor at-large teams.
(4 bids from the Big 12)
BIG EAST
(26) Creighton and (27) Marquette look like at-large teams if they don't win the Big East, and they both look to be just outside of seeding range. Creighton looks like they might get pretty close -- but I'm not sure they'll have enough on their resume to be seeded. The real question is whether (40) Villanova is going to get an at-large bid to the tournament. They have to take care of business against the lower Big East teams, and either beat Xavier or Creighton to get in a decent position for an at-large. Right now, it looks sketchy. They did beat Marquette and will have a top-50 win if James Madison finishes top 50. They really need to beat Creighton, or pick up another win in the Big East tournament and hope the bubble falls right for them.
Prediction:
Creighton wins the Big East Tournament.
Marquette and Villanova receive at-large bids to the NCAA's.
(3 bids from the Big East)
BIG SKY
(51) Idaho State and (57) Northern Arizona are both 9-1 in conference and both have a top-50 victory. That is their only significant victory. Northern Arizona beat Idaho St. in the first meeting, so if they both finished top-50 that would be two additional top-50 wins for NAU which could get them into at-large conisderation. RPI Futures has both teams finishing top-50 RPI, which makes things really interesting. Could a team actually receive an at-large bid from the Big Sky?
Prediction:
I don't think so.
Northern Arizona wins the Big Sky Tournament.
(1 bid from the Big Sky)
BIG SOUTH
(83) Coastal Carolina undefeated in conference and looking to make another NCAA tournament appearance. No at-large bid possible, but their 17-4 record isn't too shabby. Losing to Florida St., Iowa(x2), and Xavier are not really horrible losses. Iowa and Xavier look like teams right outside the NCAA's, and FSU could be seeded.
Prediction:
Coastal Carolina repeats as Big South Champions.
(1 bid from the Big South)
BIG WEST
(23 Hawaii didn't play anyone this weekend. They will host Riverside and Fullerton and will handle their business another week. They still have two matches against Long Beach St. and Cal Poly, and both of them will be on the road. (47) Long Beach State could contend for an at-large bid or at least being relevant in the discussion. Beating San Diego and LMU could end up as top-25 victories for the beach. (82) Cal Poly does not look like so. Hawaii leads the conference with no losses, while LBSU and Poly have two. There could be a tight race and a tie amongst the three teams with only if Poly and LBSU beat Hawaii, but that is assuming they would beat everyone else in the Big West. There still could be some drama.
Prediction:
Hawaii wins the Big West, but is not a seeded team.
Going out on a limb, Long Beach St. gets an at-large bid to the NCAA's.
(2 bids from the Big West)
COLONIAL
(53) James Madison has a great record leading to their great RPI ranking, but they will not be in the at-large discussion. They haven't beat anyone.
Prediction:
Towson wins the CAA Tournament.
(1 bid from the CAA)
CONFERENCE USA
(20) Western Kentucky looks to be an at-large team even if they lose the C-USA Tournament, but the real question is do they have a chance to be seeded. I think so. They will have a better resume than Arkansas State, this is all assuming that Northwestern can finish with a top-50 RPI which is not a guarantee.
Prediction:
Western Kentucky wins out and wins the C-USA Tournament and barely misses out on a seed.
(1 bid from C-USA)
HORIZON
(69) Cleveland State has a top-50 victory, but they will not be a team in at-large considerationn. They are the favorite, but will have to win the Horizon tournament to advance to the NCAA's. Oakland is the other force to be reckoned with.
Prediction:
Cleveland State advances to the NCAA tournament.
(1 bid from the Horizon)
IVY
(142) Dartmouth is the best RPI team in the Ivy League. They top the conference right now, but Yale and Harvard are looking to close the separation.
Prediction:
Dartmouth wins the Ivy League and advances to the NCAA tournament for the first time since..?
(1 bid from the Ivy League)
MAAC
(191) Siena is the top RPI team in the MAAC.
Prediction: Rider wins the MAAC tournament.
(1 bid from the MAAC)
MAC
(44) Ohio looks like they are going to be on the bubble again. They have a top-25 win over Kentucky but I'm not sure if it'll be enough, even if they only lose in the conference tournament. Last year they had a strikingly similar resume, and did not get in. They have a match against Dayton left, which may give them another top-50 win, and may help them. But their best hope is to just do it the easy way, win the MAC Tournament.
Prediction:
Ohio wins the MAC tournament.
(1 bid from the MAC)
MEAC
(222) Maryland Eastern Shore is the best RPI team in the MEAC.
Prediction:
UMES wins the MEAC Championship.
(1 bid from the MEAC)
MVC
(38) Wichita State and (45) Missouri State look to be contenders for an at-large bid. (58) Northern Iowa has a chance as well, but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Looking at the conference its pretty tough to predict what's going to happen. Wichita State has been the most consistent team, losing only one match, but there are a number of teams who are fighting for the #2/#3 spot in the MVC. Strangely, Missouri State is actually the sixth-ranked team right now in the MVC and would be the last spot in the tournament. They looked to be an NCAA team early in the season but it is not so clear now. This conference is really going to come down to the wire, if the cards fell right three bids could be possible.
Prediction:
(45) Missouri State wins the MVC Tournament.
Wichita State receives an at-large bid.
(2 bids from the MVC)
MWC
(36) Colorado State is undefeated and has a 3-game advantage in the MWC. They are almost certainly going to be MWC Champions. (52) Boise State and (54) Wyoming are two teams that are at least relavant in the at-large discussion. Wyoming has a great win over Ohio State -- but sketchy losses highlighted by San Jose St. Boise State does not have another chance to add anything good to their resume, and because of that I do not see them being a serious contender for an at-large. They will have a good RPI, but not enough victories. One top-50 victory with a RPI in the 50s is not good enough. Wyoming has a better shot as of now because they have a late season match with Colorado State. If Wyoming wins out, I could see them actually being a solid bubble team. Three wins against CSU, Ohio State, and Marquette is good. But I don't know if it's realistic, Wyoming has not proven consistent enough.
Prediction:
CSU wins the MWC Championship as regular season winners.
(1 bid from the Mountain West Conference)
NEC
(225) Sacred Heart actually has the best record in the Northeast Conference right now. The 4-team tournament will be held at the top seed. There is a clear giant gap between the top 4 teams in the NEC, and the rest. LIU Brooklyn, Bryant, and Robert Morris will join Sacred Heart in the 4-team tournament which could be hosted by any of the teams.
Prediction:
Bryant wins the NEC tournament.
(1 bid from the NEC)
OVC
(93) Murray State finally lost a conference game to (165) Eastern Illinois. The 8-team conference tournament will be held at the #1 seed.
Prediction:
(93) Murray State wins the OVC Championship.
(1 bid from the OVC)
PAC-12
(2) USC, (5) UCLA, (12) Stanford, and (14) Washington all look to be seeded teams. Stanford and Washington still have work to do to solidify their case. I don't see (19) Arizona State getting a seed at this point. (46) Arizona is on the bubble and has work to do to get in the NCAA's. Arizona has competed with everyone, but their best win is Southern Methodist. They played 7 top-25 RPI teams,a nd lost to all of them. They have chances left against ASU, Stanford, UW, UCLA, and USC. My guess is that Arizona finds a way to win and gets into the NCAA Tournament. (59) Oregon is in trouble. Their best win is over (73) Washington State. Oregon still has chances but right now they are being projected to finish (14-15) and ineligible for the NCAA's. (63) Colorado has beaten Stanford, Florida State, and Arizona, but they are struggling with their RPI. They have chances against USC/UCLA, Stanford, and ASU/UofA, but it's not gonna be easy. They are a good team - Austin and Simpson are two very physical athletes. But their chances now are not looking very good.
Prediction:
USC wins the PAC-12 as regular season champions.
UCLA, UW, Stanford seeded teams.
Arizona State and Arizona at-large teams.
(6 bids from the PAC-12)
PATRIOT
Patriot League has a 4-team tournament to decide the auto bid to the NCAA's. Looks like American, (115) Army, Lehigh, and Colgate will be in the Patriot League Tournament.
Prediction:
(88) American wins the Patriot Tournament.
(1 bid from the Patriot)
SEC
(1) Florida is the top-ranked RPI team. They avenged their loss to (10) Kentucky but they still trail by two matches. Kentucky has only one loss, and their toughest matches are at home vs. Missouri, and playing Texas A&M twice, once in College Station and once at home. Even if Florida does not win the SEC, consider the fact that Florida they beat (2) Texas, its kind of hard to drop them really far from their RPI which appears to finish top 4.. It will be interesting to see how high of a seed they get, and also how much Kentucky gets bumped up if they do in fact win the SEC. (13) Missouri has a shot at being a seeded team and can really help their case if tehy beat Kentucky. They have matches against Texas A&M(twice) and Arkansas to also prove themselves. They will certainly be an at-large team no matter what. (31) Texas A&M looks like they will receive an at-large bid. Even if they lose their five of their six remaining matches against the top-50, they should still get in. Maybe even if they lost all of them they'd still have a shot at getting in -- their opponents record is going to really help keep their RPI up. They do have wins over Colorado State, Minnesota, and Wichita State. That win over Minnesota looks good. Texas A&M should be fine and has plenty of room for insurance. (41) Arkansas is a question mark. They should get in based on what I see as of now. Wins against Florida, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M are good. They could seal the deal if they beat A&M and/or Missouri. (66) Ole Miss and (75) Tennessee are far long shots but I guess not necessarily out of the at-large race just yet.
Prediction:
Kentucky wins the SEC as Regular Season Champs and is seeded.
Florida and Missouri are also seeded.
Texas A&M and Arkansas at-large teams.
(5 bids from the SEC, 3 seeded)
SOCON
(78) Chattanooga is tied with (108) Furman atop the league standings. The 2015 tournament will be head at Western Carolina. 9 teams will be invited.
Prediction:
Chattanooga wins the SO-CON conference tournament.
(1 bid from the Southern Conference)
SOUTHLAND
(109) Texas A&M Corpus Christi is the only undefeated team left in conference play. The Southland 8-team tournament will be hosted by Central Arkansas. Albilene Christian who went 1-13 in nonconference is actually 5-5 in conference play and in good shape to finish top 8 in the Southland.
Prediction: A&M Corpus Christi advances to the NCAA Tournament.
(1 bid from the Southland)
SUMMIT
(107) IUPUI beat (98) Denver earlier in the season and has a chance to beat them again in a couple weeks. Top six advance to Summit League tournament, South Dakota and IPFW are 6th and 7th in the League.
Prediction: IUPUI advances to the NCAA's.
(1 bid from the Summit)
SUN BELT
(16) Arkansas State continues to roll - they move to 20-1. They have five Sun Belt Conference matches remaining until the Sun Belt Tournament. (72) Appalachian State is also undefeated in conference play. The two squads play a match in North Carolina on Sunday November 8th, and then again on Thursday in Arkansas, November 12th. Then, there's likely a chance that the two teams would meet again for the third time in only two weeks in the Sun Belt Tournament. But Texas State may have something to say about that... Arkansas State's at-large situation is not entirely clear. Yeah, an excellent RPI even with a shaky resume usually gets a team in. But in Arkansas State's case, Missouri State might not finish top-50. That'd leave them with no top-50 wins. They don't seem to have a case for seeding even if they finish the season 28-1.
Prediction:
Arkansas State wins the SBC tournament, but is not seeded.
(1 bids from the Sun Belt)
SWAC
Yeah. Not much to report here. 8 of the 10 SWAC teams make it to the tournament, Grambling State and Mississippi Valley State look to be the two that will miss it. Wish I had more to say. (301) Alabama State looks to repeat as Champions.
Prediction:
After Alabama State's played 7 games in 2 days last year and survived as SWAC Champions, I'll put my money on them to advance.
(1 bid from the SWAC)
WAC
(82) New Mexico State remains undefeated in the WAC at 8-0. Utah Valley and Bakersfield are right behind with only 2 losses. Seattle is at 6-3. UMKC at 4-5 will also likely be in the WAC tournament. The question is the sixth team, which looks to be Grand Canyon unless UT Rio Grande Valley can pull it together. Chicago State has not won a match yet in conference.
Prediction:
Cal State Bakersfield surprises NMSU in the WAC Tournament and earns their 2nd bid to the NCAA's. (Their first was last year)
(1 bid from the WAC)
WCC
(28) Loyola Marymount knocked off league-leading (17) BYU and cleared the way for (24) San Diego to take sole posession of first place at 9-1. BYU and (43) Santa Clara are right behind at 8-2, while Loyola Marymount is in 4th place at 6-4. LMU really helped its at-large chances with the win over BYU. Even two games behind Santa Clara, they have a better chance at an at-large in this moment. It's now or never for (50) Pacific, they have got to make a run to get into at-large consideration. They already beat LMU once this season -- twice will help their resume but still probably not enough to get in. Pacific has work to do. They need to beat Pepperdine and LMU to start their roll. USD, San Diego, and LMU looking like tournament teams and Santa Clara looks like they have to beat probably two of the four (USD/LMU/BYU/PAC) and not lose to anyone else to get in. If Pacific ends up finishing Top 50 RPI, the WCC may end up with five teams in. I did not see it early, but it could happen. LMU vs. Pacific is a huge match.
Prediction:
BYU is seeded and Champions of the WCC.
San Diego, Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara receive at-large bids.
(4 bids from the WCC)
This is the last week I'll do this in this format. Next week I will focus more solely on bubble teams, seeded teams, team profiles, and ignore going conference by conference.
If I had to put my best guess forward today by who the 64 teams are in the tournament, this is what I'd predict would happen. RPI numbers are in Parentheses front of team name.
ACC
(15) Florida St. remains undefeated at 10-0 in the ACC and (18) Louisville also matches FSU's mark at 10-0. (32) North Carolina moves to 8-2. If they beat Louisville this Friday, I could potentially see them winning out in the ACC. Still don't see that as good enough for a seed - but certainly good going into the tournament. On the flipside, the chances of them not getting into the tournament are slim. They have many chances to slip up, but I don't see it happening. I think they will be able to avenge their loss against Pittsburgh, beat Virginia Tech at home and Virginia on the road. (37) Miami is doing well in RPI terms, but only has one top 50 win. its actually a top-25 win if Purdue finishes top-25 this season in RPI. They have a few chances left against Louisville and Florida State, both at home, and also a match against Virginia who could finish top 50. (41) Virginia Is a team who I could see squeaking into the NCAA tournament if they win late. They've got four big games left (at Florida St, North Carolina, at Miami, at Pitt) If they take two of those, I certainly think they are going to be a team in the consideration. Virginia has wins over Iowa State and Loyola Marymount who could finish as top-25 teams. (56) Pittsburgh also has a chance to play themselves into the NCAA's, but their route is harder than Virginia's. Pittsburgh's only top-50 win is over North Carolina and they have a weaker RPI than Virginia. (62) Syracuse has an RPI that makes them appear to be in striking range, but I don't see it happening. Their best win is over UVA. They have chances against Lousiville and North Carolina, and unless they win both of them, I don't see them as a team in consideration. (79) Virginia Tech was a team who I thought would be good this year -- they started off great but I think the loss to Indiana was season-changing.
Prediction:
Florida St. is seeded and champions of the ACC
North Carolina, and Virginia receive bids to the NCAA tournament.
(4 bids from the ACC)
AMERICA EAST
(164) New Hampshire keeps on winning. Albany is still right behind at 6-1. They will likely be the #1 and #2 seeds. UMBC and Stony Brook tied at 4-3. With only five games reamining for each team, and only the top four qualifying for the America East tournament, the only other team to squeak in to the AM East Tournament would be Binghamton. They are 2-5 in conference. Unlikely, but if they beat both UMBC and Stony Brook I can see them jumping one of them with a late run here. New Hampshire has only dropped one set in conference play. Hartford has still not won a match this season.
Prediction:
New Hampshire repeats as Am East champions.
(1 bid from America East)
AAC
(30) Southern Methodist won its 9th straight match against Memphis this weekend. They are the frontrunner for the AAC regular season championship, which will give them an NCAA berth. They are still threatened by (90) Temple who at 7-3 is 2 games behind 9-1 SMU. Temple shot itself in the knee by losing to Uconn, and now in the foot by losing to Houston. Temple still has hope though -- they play SMU in Philadelphia later in the season. 10 matches remain in AAC conference play so there is still time. Houston is a long shot but has beaten both the top two teams in the AAC -- but only boasts a 5-4 conference record. (87) Cincinnati, Memphis, and Tulsa also have 5-4 records. Tulane is the bottom dweller at 1-9. A sad story for that program who looked to be on the rise a couple of years ago.
Prediction:
Southern Methodist wins AAC as regular season chamipons.
(1 bid from AAC)
ATLANTIC 10
(35) Dayton still undefeated in the A-10. They picked up a couple of big wins this week, a non-conference game at Xavier and a conference home match against (68) Saint Louis. They look favored to be the #1 seed in the A-10 tournament. Virginia Commonwealth would be the last team in the A-10 tournament right now, with Davidson, George Mason a game behind and Fordham two games behind. Dayton is going to be an interesting case if their RPI holds up. Right now, they are projected losing only one conference game and that finishes them at 31 in RPI. If they finish around 30-35 in RPI and with only one-top 25 win and no other top 50 wins, will that be good enough to get them in? I think so, but everyone else on the bubble is going to be praying that Dayton does not get upset in the A-10 tournament. I don't see Saint Louis getting into the at-large discussion either. Dayton may be this year's Lipscomb.
Prediction:
Gonna be optimistic for bubble teams and say Dayton wins the A-10 Tournament.
(1 bid from A-10)
ATLANTIC SUN
(85) Florida Gulf Coast and (74) Lipscomb remain atop the A-SUN standings. They look to be the #1 and #2 teams at the A-SUN tournament. Kennesaw State and Jacksonville are at 5-3 tied for third, two games behind the leaders. North Florida and Stetson look to be the 5th and 6th teams into the tournament. USC Upstate and NJIT only have one win in conference. Maybe Upstate could go on a late run and squeeze in -- but not looking good so far. Upstate went fives sets with Kennesaw, a win would have been really huge.
Prediction:
FGCU wins the A-SUN tournament and gets a bid to the NCAA's.
(1 bid from the A-SUN)
BIG 10
There was some shakeup in the Big Ten last week, and while I Thought Minnesota was a dangerous team earlier, I didn't expect them to be on top at this point in the season. (4) Ohio State, (6) Minnesota, (7) Nebraska, (8) Penn State, and now even (11) Wisconsin all look to be seeded teams. Wisconsin really helped its case after looking like they were going to be unseeded. The BIG looks to be a very deep conference, and every team will be dangerous in the tournament. (22) Purdue, (25) Illinois, and (29) Michigan all look to be NCAA tournament teams. (33) Northwestern and (34) Michigan State look to be on the bubble, but have chances to prove themselves as NCAA tournament teams. (48) Iowa hasn't won a conference match, but still has a top-50 RPI. I guess magically they could turn their season around, but its unlikely.
Prediction:
Ohio State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin all seeded.
Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, and yes even Northwestern are NCAA-tournament teams. 10 this time from the B1G not the PAC!
(10 bids from the Big 10)
BIG 12
(3) Texas and (9) Kansas look like seeded teams. (21) Iowa State needs to beat Kansas or Texas to be seeded, and a win against Kansas will probably not be enough. Iowa St. should be in the NCAA's, the question is could (39) Baylor get into consideration. Baylor has a top-50 win over Dayton, and has chances against Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas to get into the NCAA tournament. (49) TCU beat Baylor already, but has another match against the Bears. The winner of that could be the team into the NCAA's.
Prediction:
Texas and Kansas seeded.
Iowa State and Baylor at-large teams.
(4 bids from the Big 12)
BIG EAST
(26) Creighton and (27) Marquette look like at-large teams if they don't win the Big East, and they both look to be just outside of seeding range. Creighton looks like they might get pretty close -- but I'm not sure they'll have enough on their resume to be seeded. The real question is whether (40) Villanova is going to get an at-large bid to the tournament. They have to take care of business against the lower Big East teams, and either beat Xavier or Creighton to get in a decent position for an at-large. Right now, it looks sketchy. They did beat Marquette and will have a top-50 win if James Madison finishes top 50. They really need to beat Creighton, or pick up another win in the Big East tournament and hope the bubble falls right for them.
Prediction:
Creighton wins the Big East Tournament.
Marquette and Villanova receive at-large bids to the NCAA's.
(3 bids from the Big East)
BIG SKY
(51) Idaho State and (57) Northern Arizona are both 9-1 in conference and both have a top-50 victory. That is their only significant victory. Northern Arizona beat Idaho St. in the first meeting, so if they both finished top-50 that would be two additional top-50 wins for NAU which could get them into at-large conisderation. RPI Futures has both teams finishing top-50 RPI, which makes things really interesting. Could a team actually receive an at-large bid from the Big Sky?
Prediction:
I don't think so.
Northern Arizona wins the Big Sky Tournament.
(1 bid from the Big Sky)
BIG SOUTH
(83) Coastal Carolina undefeated in conference and looking to make another NCAA tournament appearance. No at-large bid possible, but their 17-4 record isn't too shabby. Losing to Florida St., Iowa(x2), and Xavier are not really horrible losses. Iowa and Xavier look like teams right outside the NCAA's, and FSU could be seeded.
Prediction:
Coastal Carolina repeats as Big South Champions.
(1 bid from the Big South)
BIG WEST
(23 Hawaii didn't play anyone this weekend. They will host Riverside and Fullerton and will handle their business another week. They still have two matches against Long Beach St. and Cal Poly, and both of them will be on the road. (47) Long Beach State could contend for an at-large bid or at least being relevant in the discussion. Beating San Diego and LMU could end up as top-25 victories for the beach. (82) Cal Poly does not look like so. Hawaii leads the conference with no losses, while LBSU and Poly have two. There could be a tight race and a tie amongst the three teams with only if Poly and LBSU beat Hawaii, but that is assuming they would beat everyone else in the Big West. There still could be some drama.
Prediction:
Hawaii wins the Big West, but is not a seeded team.
Going out on a limb, Long Beach St. gets an at-large bid to the NCAA's.
(2 bids from the Big West)
COLONIAL
(53) James Madison has a great record leading to their great RPI ranking, but they will not be in the at-large discussion. They haven't beat anyone.
Prediction:
Towson wins the CAA Tournament.
(1 bid from the CAA)
CONFERENCE USA
(20) Western Kentucky looks to be an at-large team even if they lose the C-USA Tournament, but the real question is do they have a chance to be seeded. I think so. They will have a better resume than Arkansas State, this is all assuming that Northwestern can finish with a top-50 RPI which is not a guarantee.
Prediction:
Western Kentucky wins out and wins the C-USA Tournament and barely misses out on a seed.
(1 bid from C-USA)
HORIZON
(69) Cleveland State has a top-50 victory, but they will not be a team in at-large considerationn. They are the favorite, but will have to win the Horizon tournament to advance to the NCAA's. Oakland is the other force to be reckoned with.
Prediction:
Cleveland State advances to the NCAA tournament.
(1 bid from the Horizon)
IVY
(142) Dartmouth is the best RPI team in the Ivy League. They top the conference right now, but Yale and Harvard are looking to close the separation.
Prediction:
Dartmouth wins the Ivy League and advances to the NCAA tournament for the first time since..?
(1 bid from the Ivy League)
MAAC
(191) Siena is the top RPI team in the MAAC.
Prediction: Rider wins the MAAC tournament.
(1 bid from the MAAC)
MAC
(44) Ohio looks like they are going to be on the bubble again. They have a top-25 win over Kentucky but I'm not sure if it'll be enough, even if they only lose in the conference tournament. Last year they had a strikingly similar resume, and did not get in. They have a match against Dayton left, which may give them another top-50 win, and may help them. But their best hope is to just do it the easy way, win the MAC Tournament.
Prediction:
Ohio wins the MAC tournament.
(1 bid from the MAC)
MEAC
(222) Maryland Eastern Shore is the best RPI team in the MEAC.
Prediction:
UMES wins the MEAC Championship.
(1 bid from the MEAC)
MVC
(38) Wichita State and (45) Missouri State look to be contenders for an at-large bid. (58) Northern Iowa has a chance as well, but I'm not sure it's going to happen. Looking at the conference its pretty tough to predict what's going to happen. Wichita State has been the most consistent team, losing only one match, but there are a number of teams who are fighting for the #2/#3 spot in the MVC. Strangely, Missouri State is actually the sixth-ranked team right now in the MVC and would be the last spot in the tournament. They looked to be an NCAA team early in the season but it is not so clear now. This conference is really going to come down to the wire, if the cards fell right three bids could be possible.
Prediction:
(45) Missouri State wins the MVC Tournament.
Wichita State receives an at-large bid.
(2 bids from the MVC)
MWC
(36) Colorado State is undefeated and has a 3-game advantage in the MWC. They are almost certainly going to be MWC Champions. (52) Boise State and (54) Wyoming are two teams that are at least relavant in the at-large discussion. Wyoming has a great win over Ohio State -- but sketchy losses highlighted by San Jose St. Boise State does not have another chance to add anything good to their resume, and because of that I do not see them being a serious contender for an at-large. They will have a good RPI, but not enough victories. One top-50 victory with a RPI in the 50s is not good enough. Wyoming has a better shot as of now because they have a late season match with Colorado State. If Wyoming wins out, I could see them actually being a solid bubble team. Three wins against CSU, Ohio State, and Marquette is good. But I don't know if it's realistic, Wyoming has not proven consistent enough.
Prediction:
CSU wins the MWC Championship as regular season winners.
(1 bid from the Mountain West Conference)
NEC
(225) Sacred Heart actually has the best record in the Northeast Conference right now. The 4-team tournament will be held at the top seed. There is a clear giant gap between the top 4 teams in the NEC, and the rest. LIU Brooklyn, Bryant, and Robert Morris will join Sacred Heart in the 4-team tournament which could be hosted by any of the teams.
Prediction:
Bryant wins the NEC tournament.
(1 bid from the NEC)
OVC
(93) Murray State finally lost a conference game to (165) Eastern Illinois. The 8-team conference tournament will be held at the #1 seed.
Prediction:
(93) Murray State wins the OVC Championship.
(1 bid from the OVC)
PAC-12
(2) USC, (5) UCLA, (12) Stanford, and (14) Washington all look to be seeded teams. Stanford and Washington still have work to do to solidify their case. I don't see (19) Arizona State getting a seed at this point. (46) Arizona is on the bubble and has work to do to get in the NCAA's. Arizona has competed with everyone, but their best win is Southern Methodist. They played 7 top-25 RPI teams,a nd lost to all of them. They have chances left against ASU, Stanford, UW, UCLA, and USC. My guess is that Arizona finds a way to win and gets into the NCAA Tournament. (59) Oregon is in trouble. Their best win is over (73) Washington State. Oregon still has chances but right now they are being projected to finish (14-15) and ineligible for the NCAA's. (63) Colorado has beaten Stanford, Florida State, and Arizona, but they are struggling with their RPI. They have chances against USC/UCLA, Stanford, and ASU/UofA, but it's not gonna be easy. They are a good team - Austin and Simpson are two very physical athletes. But their chances now are not looking very good.
Prediction:
USC wins the PAC-12 as regular season champions.
UCLA, UW, Stanford seeded teams.
Arizona State and Arizona at-large teams.
(6 bids from the PAC-12)
PATRIOT
Patriot League has a 4-team tournament to decide the auto bid to the NCAA's. Looks like American, (115) Army, Lehigh, and Colgate will be in the Patriot League Tournament.
Prediction:
(88) American wins the Patriot Tournament.
(1 bid from the Patriot)
SEC
(1) Florida is the top-ranked RPI team. They avenged their loss to (10) Kentucky but they still trail by two matches. Kentucky has only one loss, and their toughest matches are at home vs. Missouri, and playing Texas A&M twice, once in College Station and once at home. Even if Florida does not win the SEC, consider the fact that Florida they beat (2) Texas, its kind of hard to drop them really far from their RPI which appears to finish top 4.. It will be interesting to see how high of a seed they get, and also how much Kentucky gets bumped up if they do in fact win the SEC. (13) Missouri has a shot at being a seeded team and can really help their case if tehy beat Kentucky. They have matches against Texas A&M(twice) and Arkansas to also prove themselves. They will certainly be an at-large team no matter what. (31) Texas A&M looks like they will receive an at-large bid. Even if they lose their five of their six remaining matches against the top-50, they should still get in. Maybe even if they lost all of them they'd still have a shot at getting in -- their opponents record is going to really help keep their RPI up. They do have wins over Colorado State, Minnesota, and Wichita State. That win over Minnesota looks good. Texas A&M should be fine and has plenty of room for insurance. (41) Arkansas is a question mark. They should get in based on what I see as of now. Wins against Florida, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M are good. They could seal the deal if they beat A&M and/or Missouri. (66) Ole Miss and (75) Tennessee are far long shots but I guess not necessarily out of the at-large race just yet.
Prediction:
Kentucky wins the SEC as Regular Season Champs and is seeded.
Florida and Missouri are also seeded.
Texas A&M and Arkansas at-large teams.
(5 bids from the SEC, 3 seeded)
SOCON
(78) Chattanooga is tied with (108) Furman atop the league standings. The 2015 tournament will be head at Western Carolina. 9 teams will be invited.
Prediction:
Chattanooga wins the SO-CON conference tournament.
(1 bid from the Southern Conference)
SOUTHLAND
(109) Texas A&M Corpus Christi is the only undefeated team left in conference play. The Southland 8-team tournament will be hosted by Central Arkansas. Albilene Christian who went 1-13 in nonconference is actually 5-5 in conference play and in good shape to finish top 8 in the Southland.
Prediction: A&M Corpus Christi advances to the NCAA Tournament.
(1 bid from the Southland)
SUMMIT
(107) IUPUI beat (98) Denver earlier in the season and has a chance to beat them again in a couple weeks. Top six advance to Summit League tournament, South Dakota and IPFW are 6th and 7th in the League.
Prediction: IUPUI advances to the NCAA's.
(1 bid from the Summit)
SUN BELT
(16) Arkansas State continues to roll - they move to 20-1. They have five Sun Belt Conference matches remaining until the Sun Belt Tournament. (72) Appalachian State is also undefeated in conference play. The two squads play a match in North Carolina on Sunday November 8th, and then again on Thursday in Arkansas, November 12th. Then, there's likely a chance that the two teams would meet again for the third time in only two weeks in the Sun Belt Tournament. But Texas State may have something to say about that... Arkansas State's at-large situation is not entirely clear. Yeah, an excellent RPI even with a shaky resume usually gets a team in. But in Arkansas State's case, Missouri State might not finish top-50. That'd leave them with no top-50 wins. They don't seem to have a case for seeding even if they finish the season 28-1.
Prediction:
Arkansas State wins the SBC tournament, but is not seeded.
(1 bids from the Sun Belt)
SWAC
Yeah. Not much to report here. 8 of the 10 SWAC teams make it to the tournament, Grambling State and Mississippi Valley State look to be the two that will miss it. Wish I had more to say. (301) Alabama State looks to repeat as Champions.
Prediction:
After Alabama State's played 7 games in 2 days last year and survived as SWAC Champions, I'll put my money on them to advance.
(1 bid from the SWAC)
WAC
(82) New Mexico State remains undefeated in the WAC at 8-0. Utah Valley and Bakersfield are right behind with only 2 losses. Seattle is at 6-3. UMKC at 4-5 will also likely be in the WAC tournament. The question is the sixth team, which looks to be Grand Canyon unless UT Rio Grande Valley can pull it together. Chicago State has not won a match yet in conference.
Prediction:
Cal State Bakersfield surprises NMSU in the WAC Tournament and earns their 2nd bid to the NCAA's. (Their first was last year)
(1 bid from the WAC)
WCC
(28) Loyola Marymount knocked off league-leading (17) BYU and cleared the way for (24) San Diego to take sole posession of first place at 9-1. BYU and (43) Santa Clara are right behind at 8-2, while Loyola Marymount is in 4th place at 6-4. LMU really helped its at-large chances with the win over BYU. Even two games behind Santa Clara, they have a better chance at an at-large in this moment. It's now or never for (50) Pacific, they have got to make a run to get into at-large consideration. They already beat LMU once this season -- twice will help their resume but still probably not enough to get in. Pacific has work to do. They need to beat Pepperdine and LMU to start their roll. USD, San Diego, and LMU looking like tournament teams and Santa Clara looks like they have to beat probably two of the four (USD/LMU/BYU/PAC) and not lose to anyone else to get in. If Pacific ends up finishing Top 50 RPI, the WCC may end up with five teams in. I did not see it early, but it could happen. LMU vs. Pacific is a huge match.
Prediction:
BYU is seeded and Champions of the WCC.
San Diego, Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara receive at-large bids.
(4 bids from the WCC)
