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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:28:02 GMT -5
At this point, everyone likes to discuss the brackets, and who has the easiest and hardest paths to the championship. The problem with these discussions is that it's hard to define what really counts as a hard or easy path. In the past, I have developed an approach to assess the quality of the competition in the tournament, separate from the team quality. The approach is derived from the Pablo Final Four Probablities, available on Richkern.com. The problem with the Final Four probabilities, however, is that they depend both on the quality of the team and the quality of the competition. Therefore, we need to take out the team component.
The way I've done this is to turn it around. Instead of calculating the probability given the team rating, I am setting the probability and asking "what rating does a team need to get that?" This works well, and the only real question is what standard I apply. Historically, what I do is rate subregionals based on a 75% chance of getting out. For regionals, I rate them based on the rating you would need to have a 33% chance of getting to the final 4.
I'll provide the full list of teams rating their sub-regional brackets, but keep in mind, there are some pretty basic things that go on. For example, anyone sitting in a bracket with top teams like USC, Washington, Minnesota, Texas, etc are going to naturally have very hard paths. But it will also depend on the other teams in the bracket.
When you see the list, the ratings refer to "how good do you have to be to advance?" Therefore, a higher score means that the competition is harder.
Results in the next post
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:29:03 GMT -5
SubRegional Rating Minnesota 6245 Penn State 6605 Nebraska 6808 Ohio State 6827 Kansas 6922 Texas 6954 North Carolina 7006 Louisville 7022 UCLA 7028 USC 7093 Florida 7129 Washington 7145 BYU 7264 Texas A&M 7358 Wisconsin 7401 Creighton 7402 Stanford 7464 Coastal Carolina 7585 UNC Wilmington 7606 Hawaii 7643 Kentucky 7671 Illinois 7696 Robert Morris 7815 Florida State 7828 American 7845 Belmont 7877 New Hampshire 7908 Southern Illinois 7912 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 7924 Arizona State 7929 TCU 7943 Santa Clara 8035 Michigan 8038 Lipscomb 8079 Western Kentucky 8081 Dayton 8084 Missouri 8088 Arizona 8088 Howard 8106 Villanova 8117 Colorado State 8135 Ohio 8138 Iowa State 8145 Furman 8150 Missouri State 8154 Miami-Fl 8172 Oregon 8258 Loyola Marymount 8264 New Mexico State 8276 Marquette 8324 Jackson State 8326 Northern Iowa 8329 Wichita State 8366 Harvard 8377 Kansas State 8380 San Diego 8420 Cleveland State 8454 Northern Arizona 8457 Purdue 8516 Fairfield 8533 SMU 8544 Arkansas State 8699 Michigan State 8703 Denver 8712
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 14:34:08 GMT -5
Shocking to see that the Committee gave PSU an easy draw. Who could have guessed that would happen?
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Post by volleyguy on Dec 1, 2015 14:35:06 GMT -5
Thank you.
So, Howard is horrible. What makes their chances better than those teams that follow (the competition seems to be the obvious answer)? Alternatively, if one of those other teams were in Howard's place, how would their current chances be affected (I'm just trying to get an idea of how to interpret the data)?
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:38:36 GMT -5
Analysis of SubRegionals: This is, I think, the first year since I started doing this that Penn St does not have the easiest path. And it's not even close. Minnesota's path to the sub-regionals is among the weakest you will ever see. The sad part of this is that two of the teams are at-large selections. It's one thing when Penn St gets an easy path because it has a bunch of local AQs, who aren't up to the same level as the rest of the field. But these are at-large teams. Sad.
Overall, the easiest paths are for the seeded teams, with the exception of North Carolina, who has the advantage of having one of the weaker seeded teams and is playing at home. The hardest paths for seeded teams are Stanford, Creighton and Wisconsin. Stanford is in the same bracket as Colorado St, but even their first round match against NMSU is harder than usual. Creighton doesn't get the home court advantage, and that hurts. Wisconsin has really good first round opponent, if they can get through there, the second round is easier, but that tough opponent up front makes it tougher to get through.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:40:59 GMT -5
Thank you. So, Howard is horrible. NO. Howard's OPPONENTS are terrible (hard). This has nothing to do with Howard, other than the teams they are playing. As noted, the rating is completely independent of Howard, and is solely determined by the fact that the first round opponent is Penn St, and if they win, they have to play the winner of Dayton or Villanova.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:42:34 GMT -5
Shocking to see that the Committee gave PSU an easy draw. Who could have guessed that would happen? It's actually lot harder than it has been in previous years. Minnesota's draw is an embarrassment, but that is because of their selections, not just the placement.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:44:37 GMT -5
Regional Analysis (seeded teams + a couple others) Minnesota 6957 Texas 7148 USC 7210 Washington 7381 Penn State 7397 Kansas 7484 North Carolina 7570 Nebraska 7588 Stanford 7598 Louisville 7624 Texas A&M 7641 Creighton 7645 Florida 7674 Hawaii 7712 UCLA 7717 Illinois 7758 Ohio State 7784 BYU 7801 Wisconsin 7884
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:48:18 GMT -5
Minnesota's easy subregional translates into an easier regional overall. Stanford, OTOH, if they can get through to the sweet 16, has it relatively easier (of course, nothing in the sweet 16 is easy). Wisconsin gets hammered in both, and they really have a tough path.
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Post by akbar on Dec 1, 2015 14:50:07 GMT -5
Not sure people are reading and understanding Bofa, but rather hearing what they want to hear.
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Post by akbar on Dec 1, 2015 14:52:21 GMT -5
Minnesota's easy subregional translates into an easier regional overall. Stanford, OTOH, if they can get through to the sweet 16, has it relatively easier (of course, nothing in the sweet 16 is easy). Wisconsin gets hammered in both, and they really have a tough path. So some path are easy , some are difficult all the way through, some are front loaded and some are back loaded. Correct?
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Post by HappyVolley on Dec 1, 2015 14:53:24 GMT -5
Shocking to see that the Committee gave PSU an easy draw. Who could have guessed that would happen? What easy draw? Dayton is a very good team. PSU, if they get past Dayton will play either Hawaii or TAMU. If by some miracle PSU gets past those teams, they will have to play in the regional finals a team that just swept them.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:55:48 GMT -5
Minnesota's easy subregional translates into an easier regional overall. Stanford, OTOH, if they can get through to the sweet 16, has it relatively easier (of course, nothing in the sweet 16 is easy). Wisconsin gets hammered in both, and they really have a tough path. So some path are easy , some are difficult all the way through, some are front loaded and some are back loaded. Correct? Yep. Tougher matches up front make it harder, because it is more likely you are to face them. Although good teams are most likely to get through, Pablo takes into account the possibility of an upset.
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Post by The Bofa on the Sofa on Dec 1, 2015 14:58:22 GMT -5
Shocking to see that the Committee gave PSU an easy draw. Who could have guessed that would happen? What easy draw? Read what I just wrote. The second easiest sub-regional, and 5th easiest path to the Final Four. Compared to what other teams have to face, it's relatively easy. That they aren't a great team does not affect the quality of draw.
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Post by tomclen on Dec 1, 2015 15:01:17 GMT -5
Shocking to see that the Committee gave PSU an easy draw. Who could have guessed that would happen? What easy draw? Dayton is a very good team. PSU, if they get past Dayton will play either Hawaii or TAMU. If by some miracle PSU gets past those teams, they will have to play in the regional finals a team that just swept them. So, you're saying that PSU beating Dayton and TAMU would be a miracle?
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