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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 1, 2015 23:04:04 GMT -5
I have replicated the page on the Rich Kern site that gives the pablo odds for each team making it to the Final Four. The numbers are not exactly the same because of reasons(*) but they are close enough that I'm pretty sure I didn't make any bad mistakes. This gives me the possibility of updating those odds daily, as results come in.
Washington Current FF odds -- OUT Toughest expected match -- Regional Final Next match: none Results: 3-0 Denver 3-1 Michigan State 3-2 Ohio State 1-3 Nebraska
USC Current FF odds -- OUT Toughest expected match -- Regional Final Next match: none Results: 3-1 Cleveland State 3-0 San Diego 3-1 Creighton 2-3 Kansas
Stanford Current FF odds -- OUT Toughest expected match -- Regional Final Next match: none Results: 3-0 New Mexico St 0-3 Loyola Marymount
UCLA Current FF odds -- OUT Toughest expected match -- Regional Semi-Final Next match: none Results: 3-0 Lipscomb 3-2 Michigan 1-3 Texas
Oregon Current FF odds -- OUT Toughest expected match -- First Round Next match: none Results: 1-3 Wisconsin
ASU Current FF odds -- OUT Toughest expected match -- Regional Final Next match: none Results: 0-3 FSU
Arizona Current FF odds -- OUT Toughest expected match -- Regional Final Next match: none Results: 0-3 Western Kentucky
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W/L by round:
R1: 4-3 R2: 3-1 R3: 2-1 R4: 0-2 R5: --- R6: ---
Total: 9-7
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* reasons: I'm using an approximation of the pablo probability equation instead of whatever pablo is actually using. It's pretty close.
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Post by vbct3 on Dec 2, 2015 1:03:33 GMT -5
Ouch.
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Post by dawgnerd on Dec 2, 2015 1:09:54 GMT -5
The bright side is that those odds go way up if the beat Wisconsin
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 2, 2015 1:58:35 GMT -5
There are several schools that could say this. Denver, for instance.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Dec 2, 2015 2:47:16 GMT -5
There are several schools that could say this. Denver, for instance. Except they're dreaming. Oregon actually might have a chance.
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Post by scottysocc on Dec 2, 2015 4:25:33 GMT -5
Surprised Stanford only has a 17% chance. If USC and Stanford make it to the regional final, is USC the clear favorite? Or could it go either way? Thoughts?
In other news, right now I honestly see Nebraska beating Washington. They're peaking at the right time.
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Post by volleyfan24 on Dec 2, 2015 4:59:56 GMT -5
Surprised Stanford only has a 17% chance. If USC and Stanford make it to the regional final, is USC the clear favorite? Or could it go either way? Thoughts? In other news, right now I honestly see Nebraska beating Washington. They're peaking at the right time. Stanford's chances of making the Final Four are low because their potential opponents have high RPI or AVCA ranks. The path for Stanford is a lot tougher than it looks. NMSU took ASU to 5 with Macey and took a set off Arizona and Texas to start the season. Then a potential match up with LMU who beat UCLA or CSU who is ranked in the top 16 o the country. Then a potential match with 9th seeded and ranked Kansas a very good team. With all that said I can see Stanford beating all these opponents. On the other side I can see USC dominating and getting through with little trouble. If both make it, I think it will be a good match. I don't like both these teams are in the same regional. USC barely edged Stanford in a deuce set in the 5th earlier this season. The problem with common opponents is you know each other. This match can be a toss up USC and Stanford have a long history and rivalry. Can Stanford play spoiler to USCs season absolutely they just need to get there first? As for UW I have them over Nebraska. I think UW is also peaking at the right time. I like Washington's chances it really could go either way.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 2, 2015 12:01:27 GMT -5
Surprised Stanford only has a 17% chance. If USC and Stanford make it to the regional final, is USC the clear favorite? Or could it go either way? Thoughts? Yes, USC is a clear pablo favorite over Stanford on a neutral court. (This can't be surprising -- USC beat Stanford at Stanford.)
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Post by redbeard2008 on Dec 2, 2015 13:18:17 GMT -5
In other news, right now I honestly see Nebraska beating Washington. They're peaking at the right time. You mean the team that went 0-3 against Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Yeah, they beat Penn State twice, but who else? Sorry, I'm not buying the "big bad Huskers" myth. They're beatable.
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Post by tomclen on Dec 2, 2015 13:59:25 GMT -5
I'm having an 'Orange Crush' deja vu moment.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 3, 2015 18:16:36 GMT -5
ASU is out
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Post by Pirate VB Fan on Dec 3, 2015 21:35:02 GMT -5
To quote the inimitable Gomer Pyle, "Well surprise! Surprise!"
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 3, 2015 22:25:26 GMT -5
Oregon is out.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 3, 2015 23:36:36 GMT -5
Stanford wins.
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Post by mikegarrison on Dec 4, 2015 0:36:09 GMT -5
USC wins.
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