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Post by badgerbreath on Feb 14, 2016 11:15:43 GMT -5
CDC and WHO being very risk averse with their warnings, because if there is a link, it's a real public health disaster, no doubt about it. There is some other information muddying the waters a bit, though. Columbia, for example, says they saw no brain defects in 3000 pregnant women infected with zika, although a lot of people wonder if they have looked carefully enough. Lots of ways they could have screwed up looking for such a connection post hoc. It could be there is also some weird interaction, possibly with pesticides used to kill mosquitos, or there may be a unique variant of the virus causing the problems in Brazil but not elsewhere. WHO seems pretty confident though.
I've been seeing emergency email calls from NSF and NIH for research proposals on Zika all week - which happens only once in a blue moon, so they are scrambling to catch up. I hope we will have some more clarity on the situation before summer so that people can make more grounded decisions.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2016 11:22:29 GMT -5
What are the symptoms and effects of this infection in Africa? Or is there more immunity/resistance there?
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mrad
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Post by mrad on Feb 14, 2016 12:25:26 GMT -5
Besides Zika scare, the watter down there is toxic. My friend's daughter is on the women 8 rowing boat and they will have a great great chance to repeat as Olympics Champs but her mom is telling her to pull out now. IOC is so greedy and corrupt they won't change.
They should select 5 or 6 countries and rotate them every 4 yrs. It is the best way to have a safe competition and reduce costs too.
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Post by badgerbreath on Feb 14, 2016 12:41:13 GMT -5
From what I understand it hasn't received much attention because the effects associated with infection are pretty mild compared to other co-occurring diseases in the tropics. There has been no push to find a vaccine as a result. It belongs to the same group of viruses that produce yellow fever, dengue and viral encephalitis, so most of what we know about it comes incidentally from studying in conjunction with those other related viruses. Basically, it has flown under the radar.
I think a lot of the effort by WHO since the first report in October has been trying to establish links between infection and these neurological birth defects in Africa and the Indo-Pacific. It takes a lot of testing and fieldwork to do that but you should get a better picture after a few months work. I think that this sudden call for more lab research suggests they are seeing a real link in the field data and that they alarmed enough to ask for more help, but I'm only guessing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2016 14:39:53 GMT -5
Have there been birth defects in Africa? Especially the microcephaly. www.cdc.gov/zika/
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Post by coloradokidd on Feb 14, 2016 15:20:14 GMT -5
I'm curious, how long does the zika virus stay in a person's system? Do they carry it for a time or is it permanent? My thoughts exactly! From the CDC:"Zika virus usually remains in the blood of an infected person for about a week but it can be found longer in some people." *"but it can be found longer in some people"
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Post by badgerbreath on Feb 14, 2016 15:25:41 GMT -5
Have there been birth defects in Africa? Especially the microcephaly. www.cdc.gov/zika/They don't know yet. There wouldn't be an obvious signal (like a sudden increase) because it is endemic to Africa, whereas Zika broke out recently in Brazil so the coincidence tipped people off. It may be just a coincidence. They need to isolate infected mothers and assess rates of defects relative to a control population. As records and testing aren't great in much of Africa, that means they have to track that information down post hoc, or test mothers who are giving birth now until they get enough information. There is some chatter in the scientific social media that they will release some findings soon. I imagine that most countries' Olympic committees will wait for better info before over the coming 2-3 months before deciding what to do.
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Post by goingtotask on Feb 14, 2016 17:51:20 GMT -5
From what I understand it hasn't received much attention because the effects associated with infection are pretty mild compared to other co-occurring diseases in the tropics. There has been no push to find a vaccine as a result. It belongs to the same group of viruses that produce yellow fever, dengue and viral encephalitis, so most of what we know about it comes incidentally from studying in conjunction with those other related viruses. Basically, it has flown under the radar. I think a lot of the effort by WHO since the first report in October has been trying to establish links between infection and these neurological birth defects in Africa and the Indo-Pacific. It takes a lot of testing and fieldwork to do that but you should get a better picture after a few months work. I think that this sudden call for more lab research suggests they are seeing a real link in the field data and that they alarmed enough to ask for more help, but I'm only guessing. The reason it is receiving so much attention now is a numbers game. Prior to the current outbreak in Brazil, the largest reported outbreak was 28,000 in French Polynesia in 2013. The current estimates from the Brazil government is 1.5 million, although this is a very difficult number to lock down. 4 in 5 people infected with the Zika virus are asymptomatic, so this number is a projection only. The other alarming concern is microcephaly rates in infants. For the period Oct 2015 through January 2016, the number of infants born with microcephaly number greater than 3,500. In a normal year, there are typically about 150. That's a 2,300% increase in microcephaly cases in Brazil. Whether or not there was an elevated rates in microcephaly cases with other outbreaks may be difficult to assess, due to the regions where the outbreaks have occurred in the past. Most of the counties do not have the types of government health agencies that Brazil brings to the table.
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Post by goingtotask on Feb 14, 2016 17:58:32 GMT -5
I'm curious, how long does the zika virus stay in a person's system? Do they carry it for a time or is it permanent? The data right now is varied with respect to how long Zika stays in the blood stream, as well as other bodily fluids. Current estimates is that it can live in the bloodstream for 7-14 days. However, other bodily fluids is an area where there just is enough data to know. There is a documented case from 2008 where a physician, working on an outbreak in Micronesia, returned to the United States and later infected his wife. He did not have a detectable level in his bloodstream, however, it was detectable in his semen, meaning it could possibly survive longer in other bodily fluids. Unfortunately, it's just too early to know. Once infected, patients will carry the antibodies that provides immunity against infection occurring again. However, as of now, it is not know if this is life-long immunity, or for a period of time. It should be noted, that prior to the current outbreak in Brazil that started in April 2015, it had not been locally transmitted anywhere within South or North America. The timing of the outbreak points to the possibly that the virus was brought to Brazil in 2014 when the world cup was played. This possibly makes the upcoming Olympics in 2016 a potentially frightening scenario.
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