RPI Futures Week 4 (9/18/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending RPI projection based on matches played plus the win probability of matches on the schedule per Pablo rating. Projected wins and losses are rounded. 

RPI Future Rank. (Previous Week rank) Team (Projected season ending Wins-Losses) - RPI SOS.


1. (1) Nebraska (26-3) - 8

2. (4) Wisconsin (23-6) - 2

3. (2) Texas (21-5) - 1

4. (3) Minnesota (22-7) - 3

5. (8) Purdue (23-8) - 5

6. (10) Stanford (21-7) - 7

7. (5) Florida (26-3) - 40

8. (6) Michigan (23-9) - 6

9. (7) BYU (26-4) - 47

10. (17) Kansas State (21-8) - 11

11. (12) San Diego (24-5) - 42

12. (13) UCLA (23-7) - 27

13. (11) Washington (22-8) - 28

14. (9) North Carolina (25-5) - 52

15. (18) Michigan State (23-9) - 12

16. (19) Oregon (20-9) - 9

17. (25) Kentucky (21-8) - 17

18. (16) Western Kentucky (25-4) - 87

19. (21) TCU (15-11) - 4

20. (14) Washington State (22-10) - 31

21. (23) Marquette (24-6) - 80

22. (32) UNLV (24-6) - 55

23. (45) Utah (19-12) - 14

24. (15) Kansas (21-7) - 65

25. (31) Colorado (19-11) - 25

26. (40) Missouri (21-9) - 34

27. (26) Creighton (21-9) - 30

28. (28) Coastal Carolina (24-4) - 123

29. (36) USC (19-12) - 15

30. (24) Dayton (28-2) - 160

31. (34) Wichita State (22-7) - 62

32. (20) Iowa State (17-11) - 13

33. (33) Penn State (19-12) - 16

34. (39) Tulsa (24-8) - 64

35. (46) Arizona (18-14) - 10

36. (30) Florida State (22-7) - 83

37. (22) Texas A&M (18-11) - 23

38. (35) Pittsburgh (24-8) - 86

39. (29) Ohio State (19-13) - 19

40. (65) Boise State (22-9) - 50

41. (47) Hawaii (21-6) - 95

42. (41) Georgia Tech (23-9) - 73

43. (64) Cal Poly (19-8) - 84

44. (50) Illinois (17-14) - 21

45. (69) SMU (20-12) - 44

46. (63) Texas-San Antonio (20-6) - 143

47. (49) UNCW (21-7) - 121

48. (56) Cleveland State (21-7) - 124

49. (84) Baylor (18-14) - 37

50. (66) Florida Gulf Coast (26-4) - 193

51. (58) Notre Dame (23-9) - 104

52. (37) Lipscomb (20-7) - 122

53. (55) Northern Iowa (22-9) - 110

54. (54) Iowa (19-13) - 48

55. (72) Loyola Marymount (19-11) - 59

56. (60) Colorado State (18-11) - 57

57. (43) Ole Miss (20-11) - 68

58. (83) Miami-OH (21-7) - 146

59. (53) Indiana (17-16) - 22

60. (73) USF (22-10) - 106

61. (48) Towson (24-7) - 154

62. (44) Alabama (19-12) - 54

63. (51) Villanova (19-12) - 63

64. (27) Santa Clara (19-11) - 97

65. (62) Missouri State (21-11) - 107

66. (52) UConn (20-11) - 91

67. (71) Hofstra (19-10) - 99

68. (59) Tennessee (19-12) - 81

69. (67) UCF (21-12) - 89

70. (96) Rice (18-11) - 67

71. (76) Duke (19-11) - 108

72. (81) NC State (19-13) - 69

73. (70) Cincinnati (16-15) - 41

74. (77) Arkansas State (21-9) - 151

75. (68) Gonzaga (16-12) - 75

76. (61) Xavier (18-13) - 66

77. (78) Wyoming (17-14) - 51

78. (42) Texas Tech (15-16) - 36

79. (122) Bowling Green (22-7) - 190

80. (57) Southern Illinois (19-13) - 90

81. (79) Nevada (19-11) - 126

82. (87) DePaul (15-15) - 45

83. (80) South Carolina (18-12) - 116

84. (143) San Diego State (17-15) - 53

85. (86) South Dakota (25-5) - 275

86. (82) UCSB (18-11) - 125

87. (74) Portland State (20-9) - 165

88. (38) Oklahoma (15-14) - 56

89. (85) New Mexico (19-13) - 102

90. (106) Fresno State (17-12) - 96

91. (113) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (19-9) - 152

92. (129) Northern Illinois (20-8) - 191

93. (109) High Point (22-7) - 220

94. (124) Northeastern (19-11) - 127

95. (90) Illinois-Chicago (22-9) - 177

96. (94) Marshall (21-8) - 202

97. (102) Wisconsin-Green Bay (18-10) - 156

98. (92) Georgia (20-11) - 147

99. (154) Albany (16-8) - 149

100. (111) Southern Miss (21-8) - 201

101. (104) Butler (21-13) - 135

102. (88) Louisville (16-14) - 72

103. (121) Tulane (17-15) - 78

104. (139) Illinois State (19-11) - 150

105. (99) Maryland (14-18) - 38

106. (151) Princeton (17-6) - 225

107. (100) James Madison (15-14) - 61

108. (95) Miami-FL (15-17) - 49

109. (135) Oregon State (12-19) - 26

110. (75) Long Beach State (17-14) - 105

111. (105) West Virginia (12-18) - 29

112. (110) Pacific (15-15) - 60

113. (98) Temple (15-15) - 74

114. (132) Yale (18-6) - 256

115. (108) New Mexico State (21-9) - 218

116. (118) Texas State (18-13) - 133

117. (174) SIUE (19-8) - 231

118. (165) Delaware (12-17) - 39

119. (146) Denver (22-7) - 264

120. (142) Saint Louis (14-15) - 58

121. (107) Pepperdine (12-18) - 35

122. (97) LSU (11-18) - 20

123. (91) Army (21-9) - 227

124. (112) College of Charleston (15-13) - 117

125. (103) Arizona State (11-21) - 24

126. (140) Belmont (18-9) - 214

127. (120) Weber State (20-7) - 268

128. (159) East Tennessee State (19-9) - 237

129. (141) UNF (19-12) - 167

130. (134) UC Irvine (15-16) - 92

131. (147) Samford (19-12) - 183

132. (164) Utah State (14-16) - 79

133. (155) Toledo (15-13) - 128

134. (115) Northern Arizona (20-9) - 244

135. (131) Sam Houston State (18-11) - 176

136. (175) Oakland (16-14) - 134

137. (150) UT Rio Grande Valley (20-11) - 210

138. (133) American (22-10) - 255

139. (191) UC Davis (15-14) - 119

140. (89) Northwestern (11-21) - 33

141. (144) East Carolina (18-12) - 171

142. (158) Navy (22-6) - 301

143. (157) Portland (13-17) - 88

144. (156) South Alabama (18-11) - 230

145. (101) Northern Kentucky (14-13) - 142

146. (123) Auburn (11-20) - 46

147. (145) Ohio (13-16) - 109

148. (137) Milwaukee (13-14) - 129

149. (128) Elon (20-13) - 199

150. (93) St. Johns (17-14) - 161

151. (119) Sacramento State (15-15) - 141

152. (183) VCU (17-14) - 175

153. (162) Seattle (15-13) - 168

154. (193) Kennesaw State (15-13) - 155

155. (152) Howard (22-5) - 315

156. (168) Campbell (16-14) - 164

157. (186) Fairfield (24-8) - 303

158. (166) Rhode Island (15-11) - 189

159. (130) Saint Marys (11-18) - 70

160. (190) Mercer (18-11) - 232

161. (114) UMKC (16-11) - 221

162. (127) Idaho State (13-16) - 118

163. (136) Cal (9-21) - 43

164. (169) Arkansas (8-22) - 18

165. (189) Western Michigan (14-15) - 139

166. (200) Stephen F. Austin (18-11) - 263

167. (181) Chattanooga (16-13) - 197

168. (177) North Dakota (18-14) - 209

169. (201) Memphis (15-17) - 131

170. (116) Seton Hall (12-19) - 93

171. (197) Northern Colorado (15-13) - 186

172. (160) Mississippi State (14-18) - 114

173. (180) William & Mary (11-18) - 85

174. (171) Radford (20-8) - 292

175. (149) Idaho (14-14) - 158

[c4ndlelight]

A lot of pressure on Hawaii - looks like they need the autobid or bust.

[BeachbytheBay]

Sept 19, 2016 18:35:56 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

It's looking like Hawaii needs the autobid.

almost, it's saying Hawaii needs only two more losses to be 'safe', albeit they are likely to have the auto-bid if that happens

I personally think if Hawaii goes 2-0 on the road this week, it's a done deal

if they get a loss, it'll at least keep it interesting...........for awhile

[c4ndlelight]

Sept 19, 2016 18:41:46 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Sept 19, 2016 18:35:56 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

It's looking like Hawaii needs the autobid.

almost, it's saying Hawaii needs only two more losses to be 'safe', albeit they are likely to have the auto-bid if that happens

I personally think if Hawaii goes 2-0 on the road this week, it's a done deal

if they get a loss, it'll at least keep it interesting...........for awhile

Hawaii already has 5 losses. Two losses would put them in a very precarious position with a high 40s RPI and no Top 25 wins (possibly no Top 50 if Arizona declines slightly). I think Hawaii is the best team in the Big West and should win it, but they are on thin ice if they mess up, or if someone like Poly gets hot.

[secgator4]

Just curious, but if Florida goes undefeated in the SEC, like they should, will that give them a shot at a Top 4 RPI?

Am I allowed to ask who the 2 potential losses on Florida's schedule are? Texas A&M and Kentucky I presume.

[Barefoot In Kailua]

Sept 19, 2016 19:08:42 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Sept 19, 2016 18:41:46 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

almost, it's saying Hawaii needs only two more losses to be 'safe', albeit they are likely to have the auto-bid if that happens

I personally think if Hawaii goes 2-0 on the road this week, it's a done deal

if they get a loss, it'll at least keep it interesting...........for awhile

Hawaii already has 5 losses. Two losses would put them in a very precarious position with a high 40s RPI and no Top 25 wins (possibly no Top 50 if Arizona declines slightly). I think Hawaii is the best team in the Big West and should win it, but they are on thin ice if they mess up, or if someone like Poly gets hot.

Hawai'i only has 4 losses:
Wisconsin (1-3)
Kansas State (1-3)
UCLA (0-3)
Washington(2-3)

Hawai'i needs to focus on getting (and staying) healthy and taking care of business in the Big West. Mitchem is back, which helps a lot. I'm not even thinking about an at-large, Hawaii needs to win the Big West and the automatic bid.

[Deleted]

Sept 19, 2016 19:08:42 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Sept 19, 2016 18:41:46 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

almost, it's saying Hawaii needs only two more losses to be 'safe', albeit they are likely to have the auto-bid if that happens

I personally think if Hawaii goes 2-0 on the road this week, it's a done deal

if they get a loss, it'll at least keep it interesting...........for awhile

Hawaii already has 5 losses. Two losses would put them in a very precarious position with a high 40s RPI and no Top 25 wins (possibly no Top 50 if Arizona declines slightly). I think Hawaii is the best team in the Big West and should win it, but they are on thin ice if they mess up, or if someone like Poly gets hot.

Hawaii has 4 losses to highly ranked teams. I don't see them losing anymore this regular season. They are getting their starters back and had a good pre-conference against very good teams and each loss was close with their backups starting in place of injured players (which gave them invaluable experience.) Even if they were to drop a match, they will still win the BW AND be safely within the bid zone.

[Cubicle No More ...]

Sept 19, 2016 19:14:07 GMT -5 secgator4 said:

Just curious, but if Florida goes undefeated in the SEC, like they should, will that give them a shot at a Top 4 RPI?

Am I allowed to ask who the 2 potential losses on Florida's schedule are? Texas A&M and Kentucky I presume.

i'll let blue explain it better ... but my understanding is that the losses reflected above aren't based on predicted losses to specific teams. rather, it's the probability that florida could lose 2 in sec play... take your pick of opponent. some teams will have better odds of upsetting florida than others (based on their pablo rating).

[secgator4]

Sept 19, 2016 19:27:25 GMT -5 Cubicle No More ... said:

Sept 19, 2016 19:14:07 GMT -5 secgator4 said:

Just curious, but if Florida goes undefeated in the SEC, like they should, will that give them a shot at a Top 4 RPI?

Am I allowed to ask who the 2 potential losses on Florida's schedule are? Texas A&M and Kentucky I presume.

i'll let blue explain it better ... but my understanding is that the losses reflected above aren't based on predicted losses to specific teams. rather, it's the probability that florida could lose 2 in sec play... take your pick of opponent. some teams will have better odds of upsetting florida than others (based on their pablo rating).

Got ya, thanks for the explanation. I figured it was something along those lines, but haven't taken the time to research it. 

[bluepenquin]

Sept 19, 2016 19:27:25 GMT -5 Cubicle No More ... said:

Sept 19, 2016 19:14:07 GMT -5 secgator4 said:

Just curious, but if Florida goes undefeated in the SEC, like they should, will that give them a shot at a Top 4 RPI?

Am I allowed to ask who the 2 potential losses on Florida's schedule are? Texas A&M and Kentucky I presume.

i'll let blue explain it better ... but my understanding is that the losses reflected above aren't based on predicted losses to specific teams. rather, it's the probability that florida could lose 2 in sec play... take your pick of opponent. some teams will have better odds of upsetting florida than others (based on their pablo rating).

This is correct.  Florida is favored in all 18 conference matches with only home against Kentucky and at Missouri and TAM are they worse than 80% chance of winning.  But 18 small chances of losing yields 1.6  projected losses.  Florida really has a pretty easy SEC (unbalanced) schedule which hurts their RPI upside if they win out. 

As to the 1st question - If I plug in 18 wins in conference then Florida would finish #5.  I suspect that they are more likely to finish #6 than #4 - but this depends on how the B1G and PAC play out.  I don't like their chances of being a regional host - but then we are not sure what the actual criteria will be from the committee?

[FreeBall]

I thought there was a facilities issue that would keep Florida from hosting a regional this year in any event.

[Deleted]

Pablo says there are going to be a lot of losses by top 20 B1G teams this year. Heck, it has Minnesota with 6 and Wisconsin with 5.

Nebraska wins it at 17-3 ...

[bluepenquin]

Here are the RPI Future Strength of Schedule. Glancing - there seems to be very little change. I still believe that SOS stabilizes very early in the season.

This is my opinion - so it may be wrong. I believe that what your team's non conference opponents do the rest of the year will have much less impact on your team's final RPI then you think (if you do think about it. As an example - I care greatly what Kansas's final RPI will be, but I will not spend anytime looking at what Kansas non-conference opponents do - it is likely to have NO material impact. At this point, Kansas final RPI will be determined by what they do in their games, which frankly is more fun to follow. I will pay attention to what teams close to them in the rankings do.

Texas - Big 12 (3, 3, 3, 1, 1)
Wisconsin - Big Ten (1, 1, 1, 2, 2)
Minnesota - Big Ten (2, 2, 2, 3, 3)
TCU - Big 12 (6, 5, 4, 4, 4)
Purdue - Big Ten (11, 8, 5, 5, 5)
Michigan - Big Ten (9, 9, 7, 7, 6)
Stanford - Pac 12 (12, 16, 8, 8, 7)
Nebraska - Big Ten (5, 4, 6, 6, 8)
Oregon - Pac 12 (14, 20, 9, 19, 9)
Arizona - Pac 12 (8, 11, 12, 11, 10)
Kansas State - Big 12 (16, 12, 10, 9, 11)
Michigan State - Big Ten (17, 14, 13, 13, 12)
Iowa State - Big 12 (18, 17, 18, 10, 13)
Utah - Pac 12 (21, 25, 21, 25, 14)
USC - Pac 12 (38, 49, 19, 17, 15)
Penn State - Big Ten (15, 13, 14, 14, 16)
Kentucky - SEC (26, 19, 26, 16, 17)
Arkansas - SEC (58, 45, 22, 15, 18)
Ohio State - Big Ten (4, 6, 16, 12, 19)
LSU - SEC (37, 24, 29, 20, 20)
Illinois - Big Ten (13, 15, 15, 24, 21)
Indiana - Big Ten (19, 18, 23, 28, 22)
Texas A&M - SEC (27, 27, 24, 18, 23)
Arizona State - Pac 12 (25, 41, 20, 26, 24)
Colorado - Pac 12 (29, 52, 32, 27, 25)
Oregon State - Pac 12 (24, 39, 25, 30, 26)
UCLA - Pac 12 (23, 48, 38, 37, 27)
Washington - Pac 12 (30, 50, 17, 29, 28)
West Virginia - Big 12 (47, 47, 28, 23, 29)
Creighton - Big East (35, 26, 31, 21, 30)
Washington State - Pac 12 (33, 54, 39, 38, 31)
Rutgers - Big Ten (22, 23, 33, 40, 32)
Northwestern - Big Ten (7, 7, 11, 22, 33)
Missouri - SEC (41, 38, 42, 42, 34)
Pepperdine - West Coast (10, 10, 27, 35, 35)
Texas Tech - Big 12 (50, 57, 53, 32, 36)
Baylor - Big 12 (44, 46, 40, 31, 37)
Maryland - Big Ten (20, 21, 30, 41, 38)
Delaware - Colonial (77, 69, 78, 47, 39)
Florida - SEC (86, 87, 52, 34, 40)
Cincinnati - American Athletic (55, 33, 36, 39, 41)
San Diego - West Coast (28, 22, 34, 33, 42)
Cal - Pac 12 (85, 73, 35, 36, 43)
SMU - American Athletic (92, 72, 45, 52, 44)
DePaul - Big East (115, 95, 55, 43, 45)
Auburn - SEC (57, 40, 44, 45, 46)
BYU - West Coast (42, 31, 51, 58, 47)
Iowa - Big Ten (45, 56, 37, 55, 48)
Miami-FL - ACC (52, 28, 50, 57, 49)
Boise State - Mountain West (104, 103, 63, 54, 50)
Wyoming - Mountain West (105, 104, 71, 61, 51)
North Carolina - ACC (48, 35, 43, 48, 52)
San Diego State - Mountain West (97, 105, 100, 68, 53)
Alabama - SEC (79, 84, 48, 46, 54)
UNLV - Mountain West (70, 80, 66, 67, 55)
Oklahoma - Big 12 (39, 51, 49, 49, 56)
Colorado State - Mountain West (144, 142, 108, 80, 57)
Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 (62, 76, 67, 69, 58)
Loyola Marymount - West Coast (49, 34, 47, 50, 59)
Pacific - West Coast (46, 32, 41, 44, 60)
James Madison - Colonial (127, 108, 101, 78, 61)
Wichita State - Missouri Valley (82, 68, 81, 56, 62)
Villanova - Big East (65, 63, 61, 64, 63)
Tulsa - American Athletic (94, 83, 72, 73, 64)
Kansas - Big 12 (81, 77, 74, 63, 65)
Xavier - Big East (71, 70, 68, 53, 66)
Rice - Conference USA (75, 91, 94, 88, 67)
Ole Miss - SEC (40, 37, 59, 70, 68)
NC State - ACC (43, 43, 54, 81, 69)
Saint Marys - West Coast (34, 30, 57, 60, 70)
Houston - American Athletic (114, 109, 87, 74, 71)
Louisville - ACC (36, 36, 46, 59, 72)
Georgia Tech - ACC (73, 59, 58, 71, 73)
Temple - American Athletic (89, 75, 60, 82, 74)
Gonzaga - West Coast (60, 58, 73, 66, 75)
Cal State Northridge - Big West (91, 86, 80, 62, 76)
Clemson - ACC (72, 62, 69, 65, 77)
Tulane - American Athletic (107, 102, 76, 86, 78)
Utah State - Mountain West (135, 128, 105, 99, 79)
Marquette - Big East (61, 64, 62, 51, 80)
Tennessee - SEC (64, 61, 64, 76, 81)
Syracuse - ACC (68, 55, 77, 84, 82)
Florida State - ACC (31, 42, 70, 75, 83)
Cal Poly - Big West (83, 90, 82, 83, 84)
William & Mary - Colonial (173, 147, 111, 103, 85)
Pittsburgh - ACC (32, 29, 56, 91, 86)
Western Kentucky - Conference USA (63, 81, 86, 87, 87)
Portland - West Coast (108, 99, 96, 95, 88)
UCF - American Athletic (69, 65, 79, 90, 89)
Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley (90, 85, 99, 72, 90)
UConn - American Athletic (88, 88, 75, 94, 91)
UC Irvine - Big West (98, 106, 93, 101, 92)
Seton Hall - Big East (117, 96, 91, 79, 93)
Wright State - Horizon (130, 114, 106, 100, 94)
Hawaii - Big West (102, 97, 85, 107, 95)
Fresno State - Mountain West (142, 146, 121, 116, 96)
Santa Clara - West Coast (59, 60, 92, 108, 97)
San Francisco - West Coast (111, 92, 83, 85, 98)
Hofstra - Colonial (78, 78, 95, 96, 99)
Virginia - ACC (84, 74, 89, 92, 100)
Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley (163, 130, 117, 98, 101)
New Mexico - Mountain West (100, 118, 104, 113, 102)
Georgetown - Big East (87, 94, 88, 77, 103)
Notre Dame - ACC (56, 66, 90, 105, 104)
Long Beach State - Big West (140, 135, 102, 109, 105)
USF - American Athletic (129, 125, 114, 112, 106)
Missouri State - Missouri Valley (96, 82, 97, 114, 107)
Duke - ACC (51, 53, 84, 89, 108)
Ohio - Mid-American (80, 89, 116, 121, 109)
Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (54, 67, 98, 102, 110)
Youngstown State - Horizon (116, 113, 115, 93, 111)
Evansville - Missouri Valley (158, 139, 132, 110, 112)
Virginia Tech - ACC (53, 44, 65, 97, 113)
Mississippi State - SEC (74, 79, 110, 111, 114)
UTEP - Conference USA (93, 107, 109, 106, 115)
South Carolina - SEC (128, 124, 133, 115, 116)
College of Charleston - Colonial (153, 133, 131, 123, 117)
Idaho State - Big Sky (125, 126, 128, 117, 118)
UC Davis - Big West (124, 123, 107, 104, 119)
Utah Valley - WAC (143, 145, 103, 128, 120)
UNCW - Colonial (109, 98, 112, 119, 121)
Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun (67, 71, 113, 120, 122)
Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt (106, 112, 120, 122, 123)
Cleveland State - Horizon (122, 115, 124, 118, 124)
UCSB - Big West (95, 111, 119, 138, 125)
Nevada - Mountain West (126, 127, 123, 125, 126)
Northeastern - Colonial (154, 137, 130, 126, 127)
Toledo - Mid-American (151, 169, 196, 151, 128)
Milwaukee - Horizon (187, 153, 146, 124, 129)
Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun (149, 165, 171, 135, 130)
Memphis - American Athletic (139, 121, 126, 139, 131)
San Jose State - Mountain West (148, 162, 136, 132, 132)
Texas State - Sun Belt (99, 117, 149, 156, 133)
Oakland - Horizon (168, 160, 144, 134, 134)
Butler - Big East (121, 119, 125, 130, 135)
Boston College - ACC (103, 101, 127, 133, 136)
Montana State - Big Sky (119, 122, 134, 136, 137)
IUPUI - The Summit (112, 136, 148, 141, 138)
Western Michigan - Mid-American (175, 157, 163, 148, 139)
CSU Bakersfield - WAC (161, 151, 122, 129, 140)
Sacramento State - Big Sky (165, 156, 135, 142, 141)
Northern Kentucky - Horizon (180, 161, 142, 137, 142)
Texas-San Antonio - Conference USA (66, 100, 129, 131, 143)
Indiana State - Missouri Valley (197, 182, 167, 145, 144)
North Texas - Conference USA (113, 144, 152, 144, 145)
Miami-OH - Mid-American (76, 93, 143, 166, 146)
Georgia - SEC (134, 129, 147, 143, 147)
Wake Forest - ACC (101, 110, 118, 127, 148)
Albany - American East (270, 264, 172, 154, 149)
Illinois State - Missouri Valley (138, 132, 141, 140, 150)
Arkansas State - Sun Belt (120, 134, 145, 152, 151)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland (219, 225, 214, 164, 152)
Harvard - Ivy (159, 155, 156, 175, 153)
Towson - Colonial (190, 185, 179, 170, 154)
Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun (188, 177, 177, 157, 155)
Wisconsin-Green Bay - Horizon (184, 175, 186, 160, 156)
Florida International - Conference USA (160, 180, 157, 161, 157)
Idaho - Big Sky (118, 116, 137, 147, 158)
Furman - Southern (177, 172, 161, 171, 159)
Dayton - Atlantic 10 (147, 167, 150, 150, 160)
St. Johns - Big East (196, 184, 162, 158, 161)
Brown - Ivy (179, 176, 165, 173, 162)
Valparaiso - Horizon (206, 196, 195, 159, 163)
Campbell - Big South (239, 228, 169, 178, 164)
Portland State - Big Sky (133, 131, 138, 149, 165)
Southern Utah - Big Sky (146, 138, 140, 146, 166)
UNF - Atlantic Sun (226, 218, 229, 174, 167)
Seattle - WAC (213, 209, 154, 162, 168)
Davidson - Atlantic 10 (110, 141, 151, 153, 169)
Air Force - Mountain West (275, 261, 197, 184, 170)
East Carolina - American Athletic (189, 173, 158, 180, 171)
Stony Brook - American East (200, 217, 222, 212, 172)
Eastern Michigan - Mid-American (203, 215, 242, 214, 173)
Montana - Big Sky (132, 120, 164, 169, 174)
VCU - Atlantic 10 (131, 143, 159, 167, 175)
Sam Houston State - Southland (137, 148, 219, 198, 176)
Illinois-Chicago - Horizon (251, 229, 189, 181, 177)
Florida Atlantic - Conference USA (227, 214, 218, 177, 178)
Texas-Arlington - Sun Belt (150, 168, 173, 168, 179)
Lamar - Southland (136, 163, 170, 155, 180)
Charlotte - Conference USA (198, 210, 202, 179, 181)
Stetson - Atlantic Sun (162, 170, 183, 186, 182)
Samford - Southern (194, 191, 153, 172, 183)
Penn - Ivy (178, 166, 155, 188, 184)
Drake - Missouri Valley (221, 202, 211, 192, 185)
Northern Colorado - Big Sky (170, 159, 184, 176, 186)
Middle Tennessee - Conference USA (191, 199, 180, 183, 187)
UNC Greensboro - Southern (192, 179, 176, 189, 188)
Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (216, 208, 166, 163, 189)
Bowling Green - Mid-American (186, 195, 231, 215, 190)
Northern Illinois - Mid-American (166, 174, 210, 200, 191)
Bradley - Missouri Valley (199, 190, 181, 191, 192)
Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun (141, 152, 221, 204, 193)
Ball State - Mid-American (152, 150, 200, 182, 194)
UMass-Lowell - American East (298, 295, 288, 262, 195)
Central Michigan - Mid-American (123, 140, 199, 207, 196)
Chattanooga - Southern (164, 149, 160, 208, 197)
South Carolina Upstate - Atlantic Sun (208, 192, 207, 211, 198)
Elon - Colonial (277, 250, 246, 201, 199)
Cal State Fullerton - Big West (243, 216, 193, 206, 200)
Southern Miss - Conference USA (223, 213, 228, 190, 201)
Marshall - Conference USA (224, 236, 208, 185, 202)
UC Riverside - Big West (232, 219, 188, 197, 203)
Chicago State - WAC (174, 186, 168, 210, 204)
Providence - Big East (276, 251, 209, 199, 205)
North Dakota State - The Summit (201, 201, 212, 213, 206)
George Washington - Atlantic 10 (157, 158, 139, 165, 207)
Arkansas-Little Rock - Sun Belt (145, 154, 185, 221, 208)
North Dakota - Big Sky (242, 211, 213, 205, 209)
UT Rio Grande Valley - WAC (204, 222, 225, 218, 210)
Columbia - Ivy (229, 221, 217, 237, 211)
George Mason - Atlantic 10 (181, 198, 178, 187, 212)
Abilene Christian - Southland (230, 238, 232, 195, 213)
Belmont - Ohio Valley (240, 220, 243, 230, 214)
Hartford - American East (253, 255, 255, 258, 215)
Appalachian State - Sun Belt (155, 164, 174, 203, 216)
Georgia State - Sun Belt (210, 203, 190, 209, 217)
New Mexico State - WAC (249, 234, 192, 202, 218)
Kent State - Mid-American (209, 231, 256, 247, 219)
High Point - Big South (257, 248, 223, 220, 220)
UMKC - WAC (267, 262, 194, 217, 221)
Buffalo - Mid-American (167, 197, 206, 227, 222)
Grand Canyon - WAC (259, 242, 203, 196, 223)
Presbyterian - Big South (266, 256, 227, 225, 224)
Princeton - Ivy (183, 189, 191, 222, 225)
Nebraska-Omaha - The Summit (222, 224, 250, 229, 226)
Army - Patriot (176, 183, 175, 193, 227)
Dartmouth - Ivy (263, 252, 254, 261, 228)
Tennessee State - Ohio Valley (205, 187, 220, 233, 229)
South Alabama - Sun Belt (171, 194, 182, 219, 230)
SIUE - Ohio Valley (271, 249, 272, 264, 231)
Mercer - Southern (217, 204, 224, 239, 232)
IPFW - The Summit (207, 223, 249, 231, 233)
UT Martin - Ohio Valley (193, 193, 239, 241, 234)
Northwestern State - Southland (220, 243, 248, 236, 235)
Incarnate Word - Southland (246, 253, 267, 235, 236)
East Tennessee State - Southern (254, 246, 269, 256, 237)
Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley (290, 276, 257, 234, 238)
Murray State - Ohio Valley (231, 237, 271, 263, 239)
Eastern Washington - Big Sky (212, 200, 215, 223, 240)
South Dakota State - The Summit (228, 232, 237, 224, 241)
Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley (281, 269, 268, 266, 242)
Liberty - Big South (225, 235, 230, 243, 243)
Northern Arizona - Big Sky (172, 171, 204, 216, 244)
Cornell - Ivy (169, 178, 216, 265, 245)
Louisiana Tech - Conference USA (218, 241, 247, 245, 246)
LIU Brooklyn - Northeast (244, 260, 252, 252, 247)
Lehigh - Patriot (214, 239, 187, 194, 248)
Marist - Metro Atlantic (283, 274, 264, 272, 249)
New Hampshire - American East (285, 279, 283, 282, 250)
Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt (195, 212, 238, 240, 251)
Binghamton - American East (301, 290, 261, 269, 252)
Western Carolina - Southern (185, 188, 201, 246, 253)
La Salle - Atlantic 10 (258, 266, 245, 238, 254)
American - Patriot (233, 244, 236, 232, 255)
Yale - Ivy (237, 240, 244, 253, 256)
UNC Asheville - Big South (293, 283, 266, 267, 257)
Duquesne - Atlantic 10 (156, 181, 198, 226, 258)
Holy Cross - Patriot (256, 258, 205, 242, 259)
Akron - Mid-American (264, 263, 273, 260, 260)
Morehead State - Ohio Valley (245, 227, 253, 257, 261)
Western Illinois - The Summit (252, 247, 265, 259, 262)
Stephen F. Austin - Southland (234, 257, 274, 254, 263)
Denver - The Summit (235, 270, 277, 276, 264)
Wofford - Southern (247, 245, 259, 275, 265)
Loyola University Maryland - Patriot (265, 254, 251, 248, 266)
Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley (272, 268, 258, 255, 267)
Weber State - Big Sky (238, 233, 240, 228, 268)
Georgia Southern - Sun Belt (241, 230, 233, 249, 269)
Troy University - Sun Belt (211, 207, 241, 270, 270)
Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt (182, 205, 234, 250, 271)
Houston Baptist - Southland (255, 267, 284, 278, 272)
Winthrop - Big South (269, 273, 235, 251, 273)
Austin Peay - Ohio Valley (215, 206, 260, 268, 274)
South Dakota - The Summit (236, 259, 280, 279, 275)
Southeastern Louisiana - Southland (261, 275, 279, 271, 276)
Colgate - Patriot (202, 226, 226, 244, 277)
The Citadel - Southern (292, 289, 285, 280, 278)
McNeese State - Southland (288, 291, 293, 281, 279)
UAB - Conference USA (248, 265, 262, 274, 280)
Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley (289, 281, 286, 284, 281)
Central Arkansas - Southland (273, 280, 282, 277, 282)
Bethune-Cookman - Mid-Eastern A (310, 310, 304, 291, 283)
Bucknell - Patriot (250, 271, 263, 273, 284)
Morgan State - Mid-Eastern B (307, 303, 290, 289, 285)
Fordham - Atlantic 10 (296, 297, 278, 283, 286)
Oral Roberts - The Summit (274, 286, 287, 285, 287)
Sacred Heart - Northeast (260, 278, 275, 287, 288)
Delaware State - Mid-Eastern B (300, 300, 289, 290, 289)
Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern B (294, 302, 301, 298, 290)
Florida A&M - Mid-Eastern A (286, 292, 302, 295, 291)
Radford - Big South (278, 277, 270, 286, 292)
Lafayette - Patriot (280, 288, 276, 288, 293)
Niagara - Metro Atlantic (291, 284, 291, 294, 294)
Charleston Southern - Big South (313, 309, 295, 293, 295)
New Orleans - Southland (284, 294, 299, 297, 296)
Iona - Metro Atlantic (308, 301, 296, 302, 297)
St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast (314, 315, 308, 304, 298)
UMBC - American East (306, 312, 307, 306, 299)
Robert Morris - Northeast (282, 293, 297, 299, 300)
Navy - Patriot (279, 287, 281, 292, 301)
St. Francis-PA - Northeast (312, 314, 312, 300, 302)
Fairfield - Metro Atlantic (295, 282, 298, 301, 303)
Gardner-Webb - Big South (309, 308, 294, 296, 304)
Central Connecticut State - Northeast (268, 296, 303, 308, 305)
Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern B (305, 305, 305, 311, 306)
Siena - Metro Atlantic (262, 272, 292, 309, 307)
NJIT - Atlantic Sun (302, 298, 311, 307, 308)
Canisius - Metro Atlantic (303, 299, 313, 310, 309)
Hampton - Mid-Eastern B (287, 285, 309, 315, 310)
Prairie View A&M - SWAC (322, 323, 319, 312, 311)
Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast (311, 311, 306, 303, 312)
Bryant - Northeast (316, 321, 310, 305, 313)
Nicholls State - Southland (299, 304, 315, 313, 314)
Howard - Mid-Eastern B (304, 306, 314, 316, 315)
Coppin State - Mid-Eastern B (297, 307, 300, 314, 316)
Alabama A&M - SWAC (321, 320, 322, 321, 317)
Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic (323, 322, 316, 317, 318)
Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic (315, 313, 317, 323, 319)
Jackson State - SWAC (324, 324, 325, 322, 320)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff - SWAC (319, 318, 323, 320, 321)
Texas Southern - SWAC (320, 319, 324, 319, 322)
Grambling State - SWAC (332, 329, 332, 331, 323)
Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley (318, 316, 318, 318, 324)
Rider - Metro Atlantic (317, 317, 320, 327, 325)
Alcorn State - SWAC (326, 327, 329, 325, 326)
South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern A (333, 331, 327, 328, 327)
Alabama State - SWAC (330, 326, 328, 326, 328)
Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic (325, 325, 321, 330, 329)
Savannah State - Mid-Eastern A (331, 333, 330, 324, 330)
North Carolina A&T - Mid-Eastern A (327, 334, 333, 333, 331)
Southern - SWAC (328, 328, 326, 332, 332)
North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern A (329, 330, 331, 329, 333)
Mississippi Valley State - SWAC (334, 332, 334, 334, 334)

[secgator4]

Sept 19, 2016 20:08:42 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

I thought there was a facilities issue that would keep Florida from hosting a regional this year in any event.

Haven't got any confirmation if the Lem doesn't meet the standards. I figured someone on here would know what the NCAA bid specs were for hosting the tournament.

If Florida earns that 4 seed I'm hoping that the O'Dome will be done Dec 9-11, which would be Regional weekend. Right now it's scheduled for "mid-December", but definitely December 21st for the basketball home opener. Would be interesting to see Florida go on the road for the 1st and 2nd rounds then potentially host the Regionals.

[bluepenquin]

Sept 19, 2016 20:46:00 GMT -5 @ruffda said:

Pablo says there are going to be a lot of losses by top 20 B1G teams this year. Heck, it has Minnesota with 6 and Wisconsin with 5.

Nebraska wins it at 17-3 ...

This is a bit of a nitpick on my part - but I don't necessarily believe this is what Pablo is saying or predicting.  There is likely to be much more separation at the top than this prediction implies. 

History shows that the top 3 teams in the B1G/PAC will lose 8-10 conference matches (this is my perception w/o looking it up) - not 13-14 as this projection implies.  But the conference has so many good teams that there isn't enough information to be certain which 3 teams will finish on top (although Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Minnesota look very good right now).  In other words, there is a >0% chance that another team(s) will finish in the top 3 of the conference - and for the top 5 and top 8.  There is still too much uncertainty in the B1G final order.

BTW, the Minnesota probability is 14.4 wins and 5.6 losses - so very close to a 15-5 rounded projection (if that helps).