RPI Futures Week 7 (10/9/16)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI rank based on the win probabilities using Pablo rating for all remaining matches on the schedule. This doesn't include any conference tournaments until the matchups have been scheduled. Bonus points for future matches are based on the win probabilities. 

RPI Future Rank (Last Week Future Rank) Team (Projected overall Wins - Losses) - RPI Futures SOS


1. (1) Wisconsin (24-5) - 2

2. (4) Nebraska (26-3) - 9

3. (3) Texas (21-5) - 3

4. (2) Minnesota (23-6) - 5

5. (5) Stanford (20-8) - 7

6. (8) Florida (26-3) - 43

7. (10) BYU (26-4) - 41

8. (16) Michigan State (24-8) - 10

9. (11) Michigan (22-10) - 6

10. (9) Washington State (25-7) - 32

11. (7) San Diego (25-4) - 40

12. (6) Purdue (19-12) - 4

13. (15) Kansas State (22-7) - 11

14. (12) North Carolina (26-4) - 56

15. (22) Penn State (23-8) - 21

16. (18) Washington (23-7) - 28

17. (14) Kentucky (23-6) - 29

18. (13) Oregon (20-9) - 13

19. (20) Western Kentucky (26-3) - 81

20. (21) UNLV (24-6) - 44

21. (23) Missouri (23-7) - 36

22. (25) Kansas (23-5) - 68

23. (24) Creighton (23-7) - 33

24. (17) UCLA (21-9) - 24

25. (19) TCU (15-11) - 1

26. (40) Arizona (19-13) - 8

27. (33) Utah (19-12) - 14

28. (29) Dayton (28-2) - 147

29. (35) Texas A&M (20-9) - 18

30. (26) Pittsburgh (25-7) - 73

31. (37) Baylor (21-11) - 26

32. (38) Marquette (24-6) - 82

33. (36) Wichita State (22-7) - 64

34. (27) Ohio State (20-12) - 15

35. (34) Coastal Carolina (24-4) - 129

36. (28) USC (19-12) - 16

37. (32) Hawaii (21-6) - 80

38. (30) Florida State (23-6) - 92

39. (43) Colorado State (21-8) - 59

40. (41) Georgia Tech (23-9) - 72

41. (31) Colorado (17-13) - 20

42. (42) Notre Dame (25-7) - 106

43. (39) SMU (22-10) - 47

44. (47) Cincinnati (20-11) - 35

45. (44) Illinois (18-13) - 30

46. (45) Miami-OH (23-5) - 142

47. (51) Cleveland State (21-7) - 116

48. (48) Boise State (21-10) - 63

49. (61) Hofstra (21-8) - 83

50. (55) Cal Poly (19-8) - 79

51. (60) Iowa (20-12) - 53

52. (49) Iowa State (15-13) - 12

53. (73) Temple (20-10) - 77

54. (50) Loyola Marymount (19-11) - 62

55. (58) UConn (21-10) - 89

56. (54) Florida Gulf Coast (26-4) - 191

57. (57) Northern Iowa (21-10) - 105

58. (67) Southern Illinois (22-10) - 90

59. (46) Tulsa (21-11) - 67

60. (52) Texas-San Antonio (20-6) - 143

61. (56) Wyoming (19-12) - 52

62. (81) Tulane (21-11) - 78

63. (53) Alabama (18-13) - 48

64. (68) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (21-7) - 135

65. (86) Duke (21-9) - 111

66. (77) Long Beach State (21-10) - 108

67. (65) Rice (18-11) - 71

68. (64) Villanova (19-12) - 57

69. (76) Missouri State (22-10) - 112

70. (63) UCF (21-12) - 91

71. (87) San Diego State (18-14) - 46

72. (72) Northern Illinois (22-6) - 189

73. (66) Arkansas State (22-8) - 150

74. (74) College of Charleston (18-10) - 107

75. (71) Indiana (16-17) - 25

76. (59) Lipscomb (19-8) - 128

77. (70) Pacific (16-14) - 42

78. (69) Ole Miss (19-12) - 75

79. (62) Towson (23-8) - 157

80. (92) Nevada (20-10) - 126

81. (89) Northeastern (21-9) - 136

82. (99) Gonzaga (17-11) - 87

83. (75) UNCW (18-10) - 124

84. (90) UCSB (18-11) - 97

85. (85) South Dakota (26-4) - 267

86. (97) New Mexico State (23-7) - 203

87. (83) DePaul (16-14) - 51

88. (91) Princeton (19-4) - 240

89. (79) Tennessee (17-14) - 76

90. (104) Texas State (20-11) - 122

91. (80) NC State (18-14) - 85

92. (95) James Madison (16-13) - 69

93. (78) Wisconsin-Green Bay (19-9) - 161

94. (94) Southern Miss (22-7) - 200

95. (108) Oklahoma (15-14) - 58

96. (98) Albany (16-8) - 163

97. (105) Marshall (22-7) - 214

98. (96) Santa Clara (18-12) - 118

99. (88) USF (19-13) - 119

100. (93) Xavier (16-15) - 74

101. (106) High Point (22-7) - 228

102. (84) South Carolina (18-12) - 117

103. (82) Illinois State (18-12) - 138

104. (121) Kennesaw State (18-10) - 151

105. (109) Yale (18-6) - 241

106. (123) Oakland (19-11) - 155

107. (125) American (25-7) - 251

108. (114) Saint Louis (14-15) - 61

109. (102) Texas Tech (13-18) - 31

110. (107) UT Rio Grande Valley (20-11) - 179

111. (120) Radford (23-5) - 284

112. (118) Sacramento State (18-12) - 141

113. (100) Fresno State (15-14) - 104

114. (103) Northern Arizona (22-7) - 252

115. (101) West Virginia (13-17) - 50

116. (113) Butler (19-15) - 131

117. (116) Oregon State (11-20) - 22

118. (115) Maryland (13-19) - 38

119. (117) Bowling Green (20-9) - 207

120. (124) Denver (21-8) - 247

121. (130) East Tennessee State (19-9) - 210

122. (161) LSU (10-19) - 17

123. (134) Ohio (15-14) - 110

124. (145) Northern Kentucky (15-12) - 140

125. (122) Rhode Island (16-10) - 186

126. (128) Sam Houston State (17-12) - 146

127. (111) Pepperdine (11-19) - 37

128. (119) Toledo (15-13) - 127

129. (132) Auburn (13-18) - 49

130. (156) Chattanooga (19-10) - 205

131. (131) Northern Colorado (17-11) - 178

132. (136) Samford (19-12) - 168

133. (137) UNF (19-12) - 169

134. (151) North Dakota (21-11) - 211

135. (129) Milwaukee (15-12) - 148

136. (126) New Mexico (15-17) - 102

137. (127) Army (19-11) - 219

138. (138) Mississippi State (16-16) - 121

139. (140) Utah State (13-17) - 86

140. (110) SIUE (18-9) - 246

141. (112) Portland State (17-12) - 183

142. (133) Miami-FL (13-19) - 55

143. (154) VCU (18-13) - 188

144. (148) Cal State Northridge (11-17) - 54

145. (135) Saint Marys (12-17) - 70

146. (147) Fairfield (25-7) - 302

147. (150) UC Davis (14-15) - 114

148. (142) Arizona State (10-22) - 23

149. (146) Portland (14-16) - 99

150. (158) Georgia (16-15) - 153

151. (144) Loyola-Chicago (14-17) - 93

152. (152) Stephen F. Austin (19-10) - 255

153. (170) Austin Peay (23-10) - 272

154. (167) Utah Valley (13-15) - 125

155. (153) Howard (22-5) - 314

156. (155) UC Irvine (12-19) - 84

157. (159) St. Johns (17-14) - 166

158. (143) Seton Hall (13-18) - 98

159. (171) Murray State (17-11) - 232

160. (157) Elon (19-14) - 204

161. (149) Belmont (16-11) - 223

162. (169) Cal (10-20) - 45

163. (166) Texas-Arlington (16-15) - 165

164. (141) Louisville (11-19) - 65

165. (168) Virginia Tech (13-18) - 109

166. (160) Northwestern (9-23) - 34

167. (162) Seattle (15-13) - 171

168. (164) Delaware (9-20) - 39

169. (173) Idaho State (13-16) - 120

170. (165) Wright State (12-17) - 100

171. (139) Weber State (17-10) - 271

172. (184) New Hampshire (18-11) - 261

173. (175) Duquesne (18-11) - 265

174. (186) UMKC (15-12) - 217

175. (176) North Texas (14-17) - 145

[Millennium]

Thanks for these weekly updates!

Just out of curiosity, you said PSU would move up 2-3 spots for their win over MN.
I noticed that they moved up 6 spots, however.
Was that because of the upset losses yesterday by some teams above them?

[bluepenquin]

Oct 10, 2016 19:26:29 GMT -5 Millennium said:

Thanks for these weekly updates!

Just out of curiosity, you said PSU would move up 2-3 spots for their win over MN.
I noticed that they moved up 6 spots, however.
Was that because of the upset losses yesterday by some teams above them?

Their Pablo rating improved so that Pablo believes they are more likely to win more games going forward.  That can have a pretty big impact.  Also, there can be some 'noise' with other teams in the area moving some - but the Pablo rating was (probably) the biggest factor.

[durtpile]

Half of the top 10 are B1G teams.
USC at 36? Will wonders never cease?

[bluepenquin]

Here is this week's bracket based solely on the RPI Futures and most likely conference winner per Pablo (not necessarily conference tournament winner). The combination of Penn State and the Michigan schools will guarantee a very easy sub for Penn State. A lot of inequity among this set of teams with very little options.

* Fly-ins.

BYU (Utah, Baylor *, Chattanooga *)
Florida (Florida State, Colorado *, College of Charleston)
Kansas State (Oregon *, Missouri, South Dakota)
Michigan (Pittsburgh, Dayton, Cleveland State)
Michigan State (Kentucky, Arizona *, Cincinnati)
Minnesota (Creighton, USC *, North Dakota)
Nebraska (Kansas, Wichita State, Princeton *)
North Carolina (Coastal Carolina, Radford, Kennesaw State)
Penn State (American, Fairfield, Howard)
Purdue (Western Kentucky, Miami-OH, Murray State)
San Diego (UCLA, UNLV, New Mexico State *)
Stanford (TCU *, Illinois *, Sacred Heart *)
Texas (Texas A&M, SMU, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Washington (Ohio State *, Colorado State *, Albany *)
Washington State (Hawaii *, Georgia Tech *, Boise State)
Wisconsin (Marquette, Notre Dame, Alabama State *)

[dcvolleyball]

Hawaii, you in danger girl.

[n00b]

Oct 10, 2016 22:54:17 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Here is this week's bracket based solely on the RPI Futures and most likely conference winner per Pablo (not necessarily conference tournament winner). The combination of Penn State and the Michigan schools will guarantee a very easy sub for Penn State. A lot of inequity among this set of teams with very little options.

* Fly-ins.

BYU (Utah, Baylor *, Chattanooga *)
Florida (Florida State, Colorado *, College of Charleston)
Kansas State (Oregon *, Missouri, South Dakota)
Michigan (Pittsburgh, Dayton, Cleveland State)
Michigan State (Kentucky, Arizona *, Cincinnati)
Minnesota (Creighton, USC *, North Dakota)
Nebraska (Kansas, Wichita State, Princeton *)
North Carolina (Coastal Carolina, Radford, Kennesaw State)
Penn State (American, Fairfield, Howard)
Purdue (Western Kentucky, Miami-OH, Murray State)
San Diego (UCLA, UNLV, New Mexico State *)
Stanford (TCU *, Illinois *, Sacred Heart *)
Texas (Texas A&M, SMU, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Washington (Ohio State *, Colorado State *, Albany *)
Washington State (Hawaii *, Georgia Tech *, Boise State)
Wisconsin (Marquette, Notre Dame, Alabama State *)

If that's the exact field, I bet they fly Howard out and bring Pittsburgh to State College. While not specifically listed as a criteria, I believe they attempt to avoid sending the same teams to the same place over and over. Penn State hosted Howard last year and Dayton the past two years. I bet neither ends up there this season.

[bluepenquin]

Agree that it would not likely be Howard (I didn't look at the history) - but there are something like 3 other teams that could take their place: Albany, Princeton, or Sacred Heart.

With this slate of teams - there is no possible way for Pittsburgh (or Dayton) to be in the PSU sub-regional and still maintain the fewest number of fly-ins. American and Fairfield are probably the best teams possible as long as Michigan and Michigan State are seeds.

[TCMullet]

I was going to upload a .doc file attachment, 21kb, but the system gave me an error: "Error: This forum has exceeded its attachment space limit. Your file cannot be uploaded." So FWIW, I give you what I did to your RPI Futures list. Took the top 50, stripped out all but names, then manually sorted alphabetically (of a sort). I have it in a doc file w/2 columns and the font causes the 50 to just fill up the 1st column. Between the 2 columns, I can have on one sheet an alpha list of up to 100 teams. Then as I have the sheet, I can quickly find out whether a particular team is in this quasi-forecast list. As I think I said earlier, I will (if carried out as planned) review each weekly RPI-forecast, looking within the top 50 to see who's not in my own list. I'll add them to mine by pencil at first (then re-type, re-print when it gets ugly). I suppose I could go back and add anyone who was ever in the top 50, but that would bloat it needlessly. If they're good, they'll get bumped back into the top 50. I think this will be helpful to me.

Arizona
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Cincinnati
Colorado State
Coastal Carolina
Colorado
Creighton
Dayton
Florida
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kentucky
Loyola Marymount
Marquette
Miami-OH
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
San Diego
SMU
Stanford
TCU
Texas
Texas A&M
Tulsa
UCLA
UNLV
USC
Utah
Washington
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Wichita State
Wisconsin

[TCMullet]

I continue to grow in my new-found amazement that the big networks don't seem to consider any of this (team quality) when choosing which teams to broadcast. Of course Bit10 and Pac12 are necessarily biased toward their own conference. And ESPN favors ACC over many conferences. Yet ESPN and/or SEC shows LOTS of games of teams that no-way will they get into the tournament. I speculate it's probably do with contracts. "We agree to broadcast X of your conference teams matches." Of course, they have to plan in advance and RPI Futures probably doesn't exist that far back.

[Gilmoy]

All of it is based on contracts/deals with those conferences.

- Power 5, and some Group of 5, conferences have mostly (or entirely) gone to their own TV deals. Some have the clout/leverage to create completely new distribution networks (BBTN, Pac-12, The-W). Others have signed deals with existing platforms, including ESPN (SEC, ACC, etc.).

- Some conferences still use YouTube. (Maybe only for streaming, and they also have TV deals?) A few have just started to use Twitter's new video streaming, which is itself a 2016(?) innovation not previously extant.

- ESPN3's national free coverage is left with low mid-major and lesser conferences. Even here, they don't broadcast every match, but more like a Match of the Week per conference, probably rotating through the schools. ESPN3/ESPNU also sporadically get matches that fall outside the above deals, e.g. top-10 Kansas or Florida, or a couple of Pac-12 matches.

"Big" networks ignore wvb completely. ESPN3/ESPNU are not free to choose. They might have had more flexibility several years ago, but their success was also their downfall, as conferences have gradually taken over the TV pie.

[TCMullet]

Yeah, visa vi, the disgusting LHN. Hey, great info, Gilmoy!

Uh, why do you refer to ESPN3's national coverage being "free". You can't view it thru WatchESPN.com unless you subscribe to a cable service (or similar) that has a contract with ESPN.

By "Big" networks I assumed you meant Big10, Pac12, BigWest, but obviously they're not ignoring WVB. I see you must mean ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. But I thought they bowed out (whether cheerfully or not) when the espns, et al, came in.

[mikegarrison]

Oct 11, 2016 15:47:05 GMT -5 TCMullet said:

Yeah, visa vi, the disgusting LHN. Hey, great info, Gilmoy!

Uh, why do you refer to ESPN3's national coverage being "free". You can't view it thru WatchESPN.com unless you subscribe to a cable service (or similar) that has a contract with ESPN.

By "Big" networks I assumed you meant Big10, Pac12, BigWest, but obviously they're not ignoring WVB. I see you must mean ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. But I thought they bowed out (whether cheerfully or not) when the espns, et al, came in.

ABC owns ESPN, by the way. (Or at least it used to. Now they are both owned by Disney.)

[n00b]

Oct 11, 2016 11:18:58 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Agree that it would not likely be Howard (I didn't look at the history) - but there are something like 3 other teams that could take their place: Albany, Princeton, or Sacred Heart.

With this slate of teams - there is no possible way for Pittsburgh (or Dayton) to be in the PSU sub-regional and still maintain the fewest number of fly-ins. American and Fairfield are probably the best teams possible as long as Michigan and Michigan State are seeds.

They did fly in Utah a couple of years ago while flying Fairfield, Hampton, and Radford out of region. So it wouldn't be unprecedented to add a flight for bracket balance.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 11, 2016 19:25:10 GMT -5 n00b said:

Oct 11, 2016 11:18:58 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Agree that it would not likely be Howard (I didn't look at the history) - but there are something like 3 other teams that could take their place: Albany, Princeton, or Sacred Heart.

With this slate of teams - there is no possible way for Pittsburgh (or Dayton) to be in the PSU sub-regional and still maintain the fewest number of fly-ins. American and Fairfield are probably the best teams possible as long as Michigan and Michigan State are seeds.

They did fly in Utah a couple of years ago while flying Fairfield, Hampton, and Radford out of region. So it wouldn't be unprecedented to add a flight for bracket balance.

Ah - 2013.  Just took the slate of teams and ran it through the program, and the NCAA actually did have the fewest fly-ins possible (while not having 2 teams from the same conference in the same sub-regional).  I couldn't believe it - but there was almost a perfect storm that Required a Pac 12 team to be flown into Penn State.

#1 Texas (Texas State, UTSA, TAM) - no fly-ins
#3 Washington (Alabama State, LSU, Michigan) 3 fly-ins
#4 Missouri (Purdue, IUPUI, Central Arkansas) 0 fly-ins
#5 Florida (Jacksonville, Georgia Southern, Florida State) 0 fly-ins
#6 USC (New Hampshire, Colorado State, CSU Northridge) - 2 fly-ins
#7 Stanford (Hampton, Alabama, Oklahoma) - 3 fly-ins
#8 Nebraska (Oregon, Miami, Fairfield) - 3 fly-ins, takes 1st unseeded PAC team
#9 San Diego (UCSB, New Mexico State, Arizona) 2 fly-ins, takes 2nd unseeded PAC team
#10 Minnesota (Radford, Colorado, Iowa State) 2 fly-ins, takes 3rd unseeded PAC team
#11 Hawaii (Idaho State, Arizona State, BYU) 3 fly-ins, takes 4th unseeded PAC team
#12 Wisconsin (Milwaukee, UNC, Cal) 2 fly-ins, takes 5th unseeded PAC team
#13 Illinois (Morehead State, Louisville, Marquette) 0 fly-ins
#14 Kansas (Wichita State, Creighton, Arkansas) 0 fly-ins
#15 Kentucky (Duquesne, Ohio, Michigan State) 0 fly-ins
#16 Duke (Charleston, Georgia, American) 0 fly-ins

#2 Penn State (Utah, LIU Brooklyn, Yale) 1 fly-in, takes 6th unseeded PAC team

The committee was required to fly-in Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Arizona State, Cal, and Utah to one of 6 spots (Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, San Diego, Hawaii, & Nebraska) - actually, they could have switched some stuff up where Kansas got a PAC team instead of Nebraska/Minnesota/Wisconsin - but they had to send one to Penn State.