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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2017 19:01:39 GMT -5
Colorado getting a seed instead of a SoCal team actually brings down the # of fly-ins to 22 in my latest bracket. If Iowa and Arkansas make it in over, say, Maryland and FSU/Wazzu, we could get down to a pretty low number of fly-ins and you wouldn't think that would be possible with only 1 Southern/Southeastern seed and so many fairly isolated hosts (Oregon, Washington, Utah, plus Minnesota/Wisconsin and the others straining the upper midwest).
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 6, 2017 20:01:58 GMT -5
Here is my bracket if the season ended today, today's RPIs in parens. I note that Minnesota is a couple of slots lower than the Committee's reveal, but my thinking is that: (1) Florida's win over Kentucky changes things substantially for everyone near the top and (2) that Minnesota has only beaten 2 seed-caliber teams will come back to bite them even if they have a very high RPI. I could be off on this, but we'll see. The bottom half of the seeds was much easier to follow RPI with, they have similar numbers except for Wisconsin, which lacks high-end wins and is why they got dinged a few spots. I had Maryland and UNI as the last two teams in. Iowa and Arkansas as the first two out - despite the UMKC loss, I'm thinking the big wins carry UNI over the hurdle. Iowa and Arkansas have plenty of chances to get back in it but Arkansas hasn't beaten a tourney team and has lost to two non-tourney teams, while Iowa has a win over Michigan, to go with a lot of losses to good teams and an unimpressive OOC - the Committee doesn't give you a ton of credit for just keeping a clean sheet. I struggled the most with the KY/Mich St. View AttachmentView Attachment subregionals. My cup would runneth over for a Washington-Notre Dame round of 32.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2017 20:08:56 GMT -5
Here is my bracket if the season ended today, today's RPIs in parens. I note that Minnesota is a couple of slots lower than the Committee's reveal, but my thinking is that: (1) Florida's win over Kentucky changes things substantially for everyone near the top and (2) that Minnesota has only beaten 2 seed-caliber teams will come back to bite them even if they have a very high RPI. I could be off on this, but we'll see. The bottom half of the seeds was much easier to follow RPI with, they have similar numbers except for Wisconsin, which lacks high-end wins and is why they got dinged a few spots. I had Maryland and UNI as the last two teams in. Iowa and Arkansas as the first two out - despite the UMKC loss, I'm thinking the big wins carry UNI over the hurdle. Iowa and Arkansas have plenty of chances to get back in it but Arkansas hasn't beaten a tourney team and has lost to two non-tourney teams, while Iowa has a win over Michigan, to go with a lot of losses to good teams and an unimpressive OOC - the Committee doesn't give you a ton of credit for just keeping a clean sheet. I struggled the most with the KY/Mich St. View AttachmentView Attachment subregionals. My cup would runneth over for a Washington-Notre Dame round of 32. I didn't even plan that. At the very end, I was just S-curving the obligate flyers with seeds needing hosts, and it lined up. But they could also send UND to Lexington and fly WKU out (who, oddly enough, can't actually drive to anyone but UK). The MSU/KY subregionals set up oddly for me... I could see the Committee treating them very differently - except for L'ville to MSU, I think that's pretty straightforward at this point.
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Post by bruinsgold on Nov 6, 2017 20:17:54 GMT -5
Dear Lord, c4ndlelight -- Purdue would have to try and survive the Ducks? Doomed.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 6, 2017 20:23:30 GMT -5
My cup would runneth over for a Washington-Notre Dame round of 32. I didn't even plan that. At the very end, I was just S-curving the obligate flyers with seeds needing hosts, and it lined up. But they could also send UND to Lexington and fly WKU out (who, oddly enough, can't actually drive to anyone but UK). The MSU/KY subregionals set up oddly for me... I could see the Committee treating them very differently - except for L'ville to MSU, I think that's pretty straightforward at this point. NO...JMAC needs to get his butt beat in Hec Ed....just because. If Washington isn't going to win the title this year, lets go out with some fun drama
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Post by lionsfan on Nov 6, 2017 20:26:09 GMT -5
I didn't even plan that. At the very end, I was just S-curving the obligate flyers with seeds needing hosts, and it lined up. But they could also send UND to Lexington and fly WKU out (who, oddly enough, can't actually drive to anyone but UK). The MSU/KY subregionals set up oddly for me... I could see the Committee treating them very differently - except for L'ville to MSU, I think that's pretty straightforward at this point. NO...JMAC needs to get his butt beat in Hec Ed....just because. If Washington isn't going to win the title this year, lets go out with some fun drama Wouldn't Notre Dame at Nebraska be so much better for all of us?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 6, 2017 20:43:28 GMT -5
Dear Lord, c4ndlelight -- Purdue would have to try and survive the Ducks? Doomed. Not a terrible draw. Oregon isn't playing great and the first round isn't too bad. Having to go to altitude to play a hot CSU team and then a CU team that can really serve and dog would be a much worse draw IMO
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
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Post by trojansc on Nov 7, 2017 2:58:22 GMT -5
updated .. don't bash me for my seeds - they're difficult to predict based on season end and the NCAA threw me off last year .. (i.e OOC RPI is crucial if your name is Kansas but not if your name is Penn State).
plugging in RPI numbers now
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Post by gobruins on Nov 7, 2017 6:28:18 GMT -5
updated .. don't bash me for my seeds - they're difficult to predict based on season end and the NCAA threw me off last year .. (i.e OOC RPI is crucial if your name is Kansas but not if your name is Penn State). plugging in RPI numbers now When do you start putting all the teams into brackets?
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Post by sisyphus on Nov 7, 2017 11:39:02 GMT -5
Dear Lord, c4ndlelight -- Purdue would have to try and survive the Ducks? Doomed. Not a terrible draw. Oregon isn't playing great and the first round isn't too bad. Having to go to altitude to play a hot CSU team and then a CU team that can really serve and dog would be a much worse draw IMO Do you think that CSU is hot or just running away from an oddly weaker-than-usual MWC?
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Post by vbcoach06 on Nov 7, 2017 11:50:23 GMT -5
Not a terrible draw. Oregon isn't playing great and the first round isn't too bad. Having to go to altitude to play a hot CSU team and then a CU team that can really serve and dog would be a much worse draw IMO Do you think that CSU is hot or just running away from an oddly weaker-than-usual MWC? I know you didn't ask me lol but...I personally think it's both. The MWC is definitely down, and CSU was really only challenged in two matches all conference season (@ Boise, @ New Mexico), but I also think they have the balance to compete with any team in the country. Offensively, they don't have a weakness. Any of their hitters can get it done on any given night. Where they will struggle in the tournament is the serve/pass game and defensively. They don't pass exceptionally well, and they miss a TON of serves. If their block is not on, they struggle to defend behind it. This will have to improve if they want to make a deep run in the tourney.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,153
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Post by trojansc on Nov 7, 2017 13:03:54 GMT -5
updated .. don't bash me for my seeds - they're difficult to predict based on season end and the NCAA threw me off last year .. (i.e OOC RPI is crucial if your name is Kansas but not if your name is Penn State). plugging in RPI numbers now When do you start putting all the teams into brackets? Most of the Conference Tournaments are next week. A lot of the AQ teams are determined by then and it makes it easier to build a bracket.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 7, 2017 13:10:23 GMT -5
Not a terrible draw. Oregon isn't playing great and the first round isn't too bad. Having to go to altitude to play a hot CSU team and then a CU team that can really serve and dog would be a much worse draw IMO Do you think that CSU is hot or just running away from an oddly weaker-than-usual MWC? Why not both? They've won 14 in a row and have been pretty good since the first couple of weeks. CSU playing near home at altitude is a much tougher first round than one of the lower ACC or SEC teams who are also traveling, is what my point is.
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Post by sisyphus on Nov 7, 2017 14:20:50 GMT -5
Do you think that CSU is hot or just running away from an oddly weaker-than-usual MWC? Why not both? They've won 14 in a row and have been pretty good since the first couple of weeks. CSU playing near home at altitude is a much tougher first round than one of the lower ACC or SEC teams who are also traveling, is what my point is. Hot or not, I agree with the assessment about playing them in Colorado vs. lower ACC or SEC teams.
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Post by brybast on Nov 7, 2017 17:58:49 GMT -5
Update coming in a few hours. Will predict 16 seeded teams and post bubble profiles. I like c4's bracket for right now Thanks for doing all this great work. I love this thread. The bubble profiles are great to see, but to be honest I also enjoy the individual conference summaries. If you didn't save that material, no worries; but if you still have it, could you paste it back into a new message? If it's too much trouble, please don't bother.
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