FINALIZED 2017 Bracketology (11/26)

[BeachbytheBay]

Nov 19, 2017 22:35:31 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 19, 2017 22:29:46 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

I would switch Cal Poly & Colorado State in their regional placement

Why? If you made that switch You'd have Cal Poly vs. San Diego in the 1st round (two top 20 RPI teams) and Colorado State vs. Maryland (Col-St is mid-30s RPI, Maryland mis-40's RPI).

yes, so?

they don't seed after 16. Poly is closer to LA, Colo St. is closer to Palo Alto, & Stanford will be a 4 seed, SC a 9 seed. so even if they seeded beyond 16, why would Stanford play a lower seed than USC? Colorado was sent to Palo Alto a couple years ago. I realize that makes the USC regional brutal, but that has happened a lot - UCLA or USC with Long Beach/San Diego was a yearly occurance.

besides, Maryland is the one wild card in going to Palo Alto, it could very well be another Big 10 or even a ACC team.

but yeah, it's very possible Poly will go to Stanford.....but it's not a foregone conclusion

beside, my plans are more convenient to go to LA than to Palo Alto that weekend

unfortunately I had hoped UCLA would host, so that Poly (& Torrey Van Winden) could have been sent there for a possible match-up. Maybe if UCLA can sweep next week, but I doubt it.

[ay2013]

Pitt better be in PSU's sub regional...and if Baylor gets THAT sub regional, with all of those teams flying in, good lord, that's be so unfair.

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2017 22:49:36 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Pitt better be in PSU's sub regional...and if Baylor gets THAT sub regional, with all of those teams flying in, good lord, that's be so unfair.

i accidentally flipped baylor/michigan state but didn't transfer the subregional pairings. it's MSU's sub regional thats weak

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2017 22:43:31 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

You have Illinois in your Michigan State sub-regional. Possible fix:

Illinois to Iowa State
Iowa to Creighton
Louisville to Michigan State

I was wondering how I missed that, but I flopped the 12/13 seed with Baylor/Michigan State. Michigan State was supposed to have the subregional that I listed as Baylor's above. But I made another couple changes for RPI balance.    

[trojansc]

Oct 16, 2017 17:14:05 GMT -5 trojansc said:

---------------------------------------------------------------

Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket

University Park Regional

(1) Penn State vs. Stony Brook, James Madison vs. Virginia Commonwealth
(16) Creighton vs. American, Missouri vs. Louisville
(8) Washington vs. Long Island, Hawaii vs. Michigan
(9) Southern California vs. Cal State Bakersfield, San Diego vs. Colorado State

Palo Alto Regional

(4) Stanford vs. Fairfield, Maryland vs. Cal Poly
(13) Baylor vs. Central Arkansas, Iowa vs. UCLA
(5) Texas vs. Coastal Carolina, LSU vs. Colorado
(12) Michigan State vs. Cleveland State, Miami-OH vs. Pittsburgh

Lincoln Regional

(3) Nebraska vs. Howard, Missouri State vs. Oregon State
(14) Wisconsin vs. Princeton, Marquette vs. Notre Dame
(6) Kentucky vs. East Tennessee State, Purdue vs. Western Kentucky
(11) Utah vs. Denver, BYU vs. Florida State

Gainesvillle Regional

(2) Florida vs. Alabama State, Miami-Florida vs. Kennesaw State
(15) Iowa State vs. Austin Peay, Illinois vs. Northern Iowa
(7) Minnesota vs. North Dakota, North Carolina State vs. Oregon
(10) Kansas vs. Radford, Wichita State vs. Washington State

Updated Bracket. I think this is pretty fair / balanced with RPI and trying to limit minimum number of flights

[ay2013]

going into the final week, I predict seeds of......

1- Penn State
8- Washington
9- USC
16- BYU

2- Nebraska
7- Minnesota
10- Kansas
15- Michigan State

3- Florida
6- Texas
11- Wisconsin
14- Iowa State

4- Stanford
5- Kentucky
12- Utah
13- Baylor

[Fight On!]

Nov 19, 2017 23:09:43 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

going into the final week, I predict seeds of......

1- Penn State
8- Washington
9- USC
16- BYU

2- Nebraska
7- Minnesota
10- Kansas
15- Michigan State

3- Florida
6- Texas
11- Wisconsin
14- Iowa State

4- Stanford
5- Kentucky
12- Utah
13- Baylor

Needs to be updated so Huskies go to NE.

[brybast]

I have a nitty-gritty question regarding what counts as a "top 25" or "top 50" win. Are these determined according to the modified RPI after factoring in all the bonuses?

I understand that the unmodified RPI is used to determine the bonuses for significant wins, because otherwise you end up caught in an infinite loop. But what does the committee look at simply for counting number of top-25/50 wins?

[southie]

Oct 16, 2017 17:14:05 GMT -5 trojansc said:

2017 Bracketology (11/20)


Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket

University Park Regional

(1) Penn State vs. Stony Brook, James Madison vs. Virginia Commonwealth
(16) Creighton vs. American, Missouri vs. Louisville
(8) Washington vs. Long Island, Hawaii vs. Michigan
(9) Southern California vs. Cal State Bakersfield, San Diego vs. Colorado State

Palo Alto Regional

(4) Stanford vs. Fairfield, Maryland vs. Cal Poly
(13) Baylor vs. Cleveland State, Miami-OH vs. Pittsburgh
(5) Texas vs. Coastal Carolina, LSU vs. Colorado
(12) Michigan State vs. Central Arkansas, Washington State vs. Illinois

Lincoln Regional

(3) Nebraska vs. Howard, Missouri State vs. Oregon State
(14) Wisconsin vs. Princeton, Marquette vs. Notre Dame
(6) Kentucky vs. East Tennessee State, Purdue vs. Western Kentucky
(11) Utah vs. Denver, BYU vs. Florida State

Gainesvillle Regional

(2) Florida vs. Alabama State, Miami-Florida vs. Kennesaw State
(15) Iowa State vs. Austin Peay, Iowa vs. Northern Iowa
(7) Minnesota vs. North Dakota, North Carolina State vs. Oregon
(10) Kansas vs. Radford, Wichita State vs. UCLA

Great job, as always.

That looks like a very soft set of teams at #16 Creighton's sub-regional. Maybe place Wichita State at Creighton and switch Mizzou to Kansas?

[Cruz'n]

Thanks for your good work as always, trojansc

[ay2013]

Nov 19, 2017 23:14:56 GMT -5 brybast said:

I have a nitty-gritty question regarding what counts as a "top 25" or "top 50" win. Are these determined according to the modified RPI after factoring in all the bonuses?

I understand that the unmodified RPI is used to determine the bonuses for significant wins, because otherwise you end up caught in an infinite loop. But what does the committee look at simply for counting number of top-25/50 wins?

They use the unadjusted RPI to determine bonus points (scheduling bonus, top 50 and top 25 wins...also penalties). The RPI is then adjusted. The nitty gritty team sheets are as of the modified RPI. So if a team is top 25 in the unadjusted RPI, but not top 25 in the modified RPI, that team will count as a top 50 win on a given team sheet, not a top 25 win.

[brybast]

Nov 19, 2017 23:21:00 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Nov 19, 2017 23:14:56 GMT -5 brybast said:

I have a nitty-gritty question regarding what counts as a "top 25" or "top 50" win. Are these determined according to the modified RPI after factoring in all the bonuses?

I understand that the unmodified RPI is used to determine the bonuses for significant wins, because otherwise you end up caught in an infinite loop. But what does the committee look at simply for counting number of top-25/50 wins?

They use the unadjusted RPI to determine bonus points (scheduling bonus, top 50 and top 25 wins...also penalties). The RPI is then adjusted. The nitty gritty team sheets are as of the modified RPI. So if a team is top 25 in the unadjusted RPI, but not top 25 in the modified RPI, that team will count as a top 50 win on a given team sheet, not a top 25 win.

Thanks for this. It's pretty wacky to me that so much ends up riding on whether a given team finished #25 or #26, or #50 or #51.

[tomclen]

Nov 19, 2017 23:05:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 16, 2017 17:14:05 GMT -5 trojansc said:

---------------------------------------------------------------

Predicted NCAA Tournament Bracket

University Park Regional

(1) Penn State vs. Stony Brook, James Madison vs. Virginia Commonwealth
(16) Creighton vs. American, Missouri vs. Louisville
(8) Washington vs. Long Island, Hawaii vs. Michigan
(9) Southern California vs. Cal State Bakersfield, San Diego vs. Colorado State

Palo Alto Regional

(4) Stanford vs. Fairfield, Maryland vs. Cal Poly
(13) Baylor vs. Central Arkansas, Iowa vs. UCLA
(5) Texas vs. Coastal Carolina, LSU vs. Colorado
(12) Michigan State vs. Cleveland State, Miami-OH vs. Pittsburgh

Lincoln Regional

(3) Nebraska vs. Howard, Missouri State vs. Oregon State
(14) Wisconsin vs. Princeton, Marquette vs. Notre Dame
(6) Kentucky vs. East Tennessee State, Purdue vs. Western Kentucky
(11) Utah vs. Denver, BYU vs. Florida State

Gainesvillle Regional

(2) Florida vs. Alabama State, Miami-Florida vs. Kennesaw State
(15) Iowa State vs. Austin Peay, Illinois vs. Northern Iowa
(7) Minnesota vs. North Dakota, North Carolina State vs. Oregon
(10) Kansas vs. Radford, Wichita State vs. Washington State

Updated Bracket. I think this is pretty fair / balanced with RPI and trying to limit minimum number of flights

Looks good. I'd just love to see Hawaii and Notre Dame switch places so that JMac can visit Seattle

[azsker]

I'm still hoping maybe a #2 for Nebraska and a #15 for Creighton...that'd be a fun one in Lincoln. I'd take MSU over Texas. Oregon and Minnesota would also be a fun match. Penn State sub-regional is so weak. Thanks for doing this trojansc. looks really good.

[trojansc]

Nov 19, 2017 23:15:40 GMT -5 southie said:

Great job, as always.

That looks like a very soft set of teams at #16 Creighton's sub-regional. Maybe place Wichita State at Creighton and switch Mizzou to Kansas?

Agree with you there. But Louisville might be closer to Wichita State in final RPI, and same with Mizzou and UCLA so it could be a wash. UCLA might lose both matches this week.

Also, weird that Texas has no drive-ins. Still kind of hoping that the numbers fall in the way of North Texas, would be nice to see them in the tournament.