bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,373
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 25, 2017 2:39:51 GMT -5
Winner of the Missouri State/UNI match will determine the better RPI between Kansas and Iowa State - assuming both win. Kansas will finish higher with a Missouri State win, Iowa State will finish higher with a UNI win.
I am guessing UCLA will be a seed with a win tomorrow - if the committee is still interested in matches completed late on Saturday. Or no chance if it matters to the committee if they lose. S/B interesting if left out with a win or getting a seed after a loss...
|
|
|
Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 25, 2017 2:45:07 GMT -5
Maryland's season is over and they're at 52 - how are they jumping 4 spots in Futures (over other idle teams)? What does Iowa look like with a loss tomorrow? Are they ahead of NC State... LSU?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2017 2:45:24 GMT -5
Here are some averages - 500 simulations on the final day games. 1. Kentucky - Avg - 2.0; 1st (23%), 2nd (57%), 3rd (20%) 2. Penn State - Avg - 1.7 W (72%), Avg - 1.1; 1st (98%) L (28%), Avg - 3.3 3. Florida - Avg - 2.8 W (80%), Avg - 2.3; 1st (11%), 2nd (44%) L (20%), Avg - 4.5 4. Stanford - Avg - 4.4 W (98%), Avg - 4.4 5. Texas - Avg - 4.7 W (57%), Avg - 3.5 L (43%), Avg - 6.1 6. Nebraska - Avg - 5.8 W (93%), Avg - 5.8 L (7%), Avg - 6.6 7. Minnesota - Avg - 6.6 W (28%), Avg - 5.8 L (72%), Avg - 7.0 8. Washington - Avg - 8.0 9. USC - Avg - 9.2 W (53%), Avg - 9.0 L (47%), Avg - 10.5 10. Utah - Avg - 10.0 11. Baylor - Avg - 10.6 W (43%), Avg - 9.5 L (57%), Avg - 13.2 12. Creighton - Avg - 13.8 W (47%), Avg - 11.4 L (53%), Avg - 15.8; 15th (26%), 16th (35%), 17th (29%) 13. Iowa State - Avg - 12.9 W (90%), Avg - 12.3 L (10%), Avg - 18.1 14. Kansas - Avg - 13.3 W (83%), Avg - 12.3 L (17%), Avg - 17.4 15. BYU - Avg - 14.6; 14th or better (48%), 15th (34%), 16th (16%) 16. Wichita State - Avg - 15.0; 14th or better (24%), 15th (46%), 16th (27%) 17. Wisconsin - Avg - 17.4 W - Avg - 17.4; 16th or better (12%), 17th (47%), 18th (34%) 18. Cal Poly - Avg - 18.2 19. UCLA - Avg - 20.2 W (47%), Avg - 16.1; 14th or better (8%), 15th (11%), 16th (42%) L (53%), Avg - 23.7 Missouri - Avg - 32.9 L (80%), Avg - 33.5 Northern Iowa - Avg - 39.3 L (51%), Avg - 42.1 Missouri State - Avg - 42.0 L (49%), Avg - 44.6 Iowa - Avg - 44.9 L (93%), Avg - 45.5 LSU - Avg - 43.8; Range (40-48) NC State - Avg - 47.0; Range (45.49) Maryland - Avg - 48.6; Range (46-51) Auburn - Avg - 48.7 W (45%), Avg - 43.2
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2017 2:50:21 GMT -5
Creighton has been laboring more often than not of late, but I’m surprised by the simulation. If I read correctly, the simulation has them losing to Marquette, which I fully expect to happen. But what does the simulator pick up on that it picks rpi 33 (I believe is where Marquette is at, or there abouts) over rpi12? Odd. Also, very interesting to me what happens if Creighton loses. I would guess no host.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,373
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 25, 2017 3:12:47 GMT -5
Maryland's season is over and they're at 52 - how are they jumping 4 spots in Futures (over other idle teams)? What does Iowa look like with a loss tomorrow? Are they ahead of NC State... LSU? I know I have an issue with Kennesaw State - I cannot figure out why that one is different than Figstats. I am going to guess that Maryland doesn't pass them. Auburn isn't idle - Maryland can pass them. James Madison and College of Charleston are close - there may be a way Maryland passes them, but I have my doubts. Looks like I can have a 1 or 3 spot variance with some of these smaller conference teams - JMU, CofC, NT, Kennesaw, High Point, and possibly Wichita State. Most of them are running a bit better with Figstats except NT. And many of them are right around that 43-53 range. The relation between p5 conference teams seems to be true. Iowa's fate for a mid 40's RPI rests with Ohio State staying in the top 50 in unadjusted RPI. This is a guarantee if Ohio State wins, but it also means that one spot has been taken away from the bubble teams. If Ohio State loses, it could go either way. Slightly better than 50% chance they stay in the top 50. I have Iowa falling behind LSU if they lose. I have them barely ahead of NC State (if Iowa loses) - but that is completely dependent on Ohio State staying in the T50.
|
|
|
Post by brybast on Nov 25, 2017 4:38:07 GMT -5
Can someone explain the mathematics of RPI that results in Kentucky at #1. At a minimum, hard to understand the logic that has them ahead of Penn State and Florida. Quite simple: strength of schedule, which is 75% of the RPI. Kentucky is SOS #3. Florida is #13, Penn State is #35 currently. (Penn State's will go up slightly after playing Minnesota tomorrow, but not that much.)
|
|
|
Post by jayj79 on Nov 25, 2017 9:17:47 GMT -5
Creighton has been laboring more often than not of late, but I’m surprised by the simulation. If I read correctly, the simulation has them losing to Marquette, which I fully expect to happen. But what does the simulator pick up on that it picks rpi 33 (I believe is where Marquette is at, or there abouts) over rpi12? Odd. Also, very interesting to me what happens if Creighton loses. I would guess no host. I believe the RPI Futures utlizes Pablo to predict/simulate future matches, not RPI (which makes sense, since Pablo was designed to calculate probability of match results, while RPI was not). Creighton has a slightly better Pablo rating than Marquette, but the match is being played at Marquette, and the rating difference between the two teams is within the "home court advantage" threshhold, so Marquette would be favored in that match in a Pablo simulation.
|
|
|
Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 25, 2017 9:24:21 GMT -5
looking at the seeds, it seems UCLA is the big fly in the ointment with such a potential wild swing
the seeds could be the top 17
all the committee has to do is pair Wisconsin with UCLA, and then have UCLA host if UCLA wins, otherwise Wisconsin hosts - if UCLA hosts have to bring in a bunch of teams to LA anyway - although praying UCLA hosts and Poly goes to UCLA for a potential Van Winden match-up with her former teammates
the committee can also pair Creighton & Wichita, and then have Creighton host, unless they lose, in which case Wichita hosts
|
|
|
Post by minncoach on Nov 25, 2017 9:29:41 GMT -5
Penn State might be the quietest 27-1 team in the history of sports. Yes, still tied with Nebraska at the top of the BIG, but 27-1 people. Russ deserves more credit. And, if the Gophers beat them today it will give the Huskers the title but I still say both Minnesota and PSU have a better shot to win the national championship.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2017 9:42:29 GMT -5
Penn State might be the quietest 27-1 team in the history of sports. Yes, still tied with Nebraska at the top of the BIG, but 27-1 people. Russ deserves more credit. And, if the Gophers beat them today it will give the Huskers the title but I still say both Minnesota and PSU have a better shot to win the national championship. I agree on the coaching job by Rose and his staff this year. They deserve alot of credit
|
|
|
Post by tomclen on Nov 25, 2017 10:13:13 GMT -5
Penn State might be the quietest 27-1 team in the history of sports. Yes, still tied with Nebraska at the top of the BIG, but 27-1 people. Russ deserves more credit. And, if the Gophers beat them today it will give the Huskers the title but I still say both Minnesota and PSU have a better shot to win the national championship. I agree on the coaching job by Rose and his staff this year. They deserve alot of credit That moment when you have to acknowledge, yes, Russ Rose is a damn legend.
|
|
|
Post by Boof1224 on Nov 25, 2017 10:22:32 GMT -5
Penn State might be the quietest 27-1 team in the history of sports. Yes, still tied with Nebraska at the top of the BIG, but 27-1 people. Russ deserves more credit. And, if the Gophers beat them today it will give the Huskers the title but I still say both Minnesota and PSU have a better shot to win the national championship. 28-1 after last nights win at wisky.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,373
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 25, 2017 10:34:41 GMT -5
Just 20 more matches - and I am amazed that I cannot get definite projections for some basic scenarios.
If, Florida, Penn State, Stanford, Texas, and Nebraska win today, then: it will be Texas (4), Stanford (5), Nebraska (6), Minnesota (7), Washington (8). But the order for the top 3 is up in the air. The likely order would be Penn State (1), Kentucky (2), and Florida (3), but I cannot figure out (yet) which other matches would trigger a difference.
If we change it so that Texas loses - then Stanford will be 4 and Nebraska likely will be 5 with Texas 6th.
6 of the top 7 teams in RPI play today - yet some other matches (there are only 15 other matches) will help determine the final order.
|
|
|
Post by gnu2vball on Nov 25, 2017 10:41:53 GMT -5
Penn State might be the quietest 27-1 team in the history of sports. Yes, still tied with Nebraska at the top of the BIG, but 27-1 people. Russ deserves more credit. And, if the Gophers beat them today it will give the Huskers the title but I still say both Minnesota and PSU have a better shot to win the national championship. In terms of Volleytalk discussion, it's been an exceptionally quiet PSU team. An upside? Along with fewer PSU-driven posts and threads there has been a lot less venom directed at PSU. Making Volleytalk a kinder gentler place? Let's not get carried away.
|
|
|
Post by gnu2vball on Nov 25, 2017 10:43:27 GMT -5
I agree on the coaching job by Rose and his staff this year. They deserve alot of credit That moment when you have to acknowledge, yes, Russ Rose is a damn legend. This is the tomclen I know and love.
|
|