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Post by n00b on Nov 26, 2017 15:16:13 GMT -5
7) I think Stanford (as the #2 seed) will get one of the 'easier' #3's (Austin Peay). If you're doing a typical S-curve, wouldn't the best #1 seeds get the best #3 seeds (and the worst 2s and 4s). In theory, #2 overall Stanford would get #31 overall and #34 overall.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 26, 2017 15:19:59 GMT -5
7) I think Stanford (as the #2 seed) will get one of the 'easier' #3's (Austin Peay). If you're doing a typical S-curve, wouldn't the best #1 seeds get the best #3 seeds (and the worst 2s and 4s). In theory, #2 overall Stanford would get #31 overall and #34 overall. Yes, when doing my brackets, I tried to use this as the "ideal" balance. 1-32-33-64 2-31-34-63 3-30-35-62 4-29-36-61 5-28-37-60 6-27-38-59 7-26-39-58 8-25-40-57 9-24-41-56 10-23-42-55 11-22-43-54 12-21-44-53 13-20-45-52 14-19-46-51 15-18-47-50 16-17-48-49
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 26, 2017 15:28:46 GMT -5
7) I think Stanford (as the #2 seed) will get one of the 'easier' #3's (Austin Peay). If you're doing a typical S-curve, wouldn't the best #1 seeds get the best #3 seeds (and the worst 2s and 4s). In theory, #2 overall Stanford would get #31 overall and #34 overall. Yes - if you do a typical S-curve. The committee doesn't do this, they don't even make sure that they have 1 from 17-32, 33-48, and 49 -64. I do think they will look at the list of teams and realize that there is going to be 2 or 3 teams that have a 'much' higher RPI for a #3 in the subregional. And after they have exhausted all the drive-in's will ask the question; 'where do we send those easier teams?'. Stanford is out of the way and I have them as a #2 seed - so that was my thinking. Of course it didn't work that way with Minnesota's subregional last year (USC/Hawaii).
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Post by n00b on Nov 26, 2017 15:33:59 GMT -5
I've always thought the best selection metric was what ESPN uses for college football - their Strength of Record metric which they says "Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule." I tried to replicate that using Pablo match probabilities and I think the result is actually pretty good. Better than pure RPI, better than pure Pablo, and actually pretty close to the final bracket of trojansc . 2017 Strength of Record1 Penn State 2 Stanford 3 Florida 4 Texas 5 Nebraska 6 Minnesota 7 BYU 8 Kentucky 9 Cal Poly 10 Washington 11 San Diego 12 UCLA 13 Michigan State 14 USC 15 Utah 16 Wisconsin 17 Iowa State 18 Wichita State 19 Colorado 20 Creighton 21 Baylor 22 Louisville 23 Western Kentucky 24 Illinois 25 Kansas 26 Purdue 27 Pittsburgh 28 Oregon 29 VCU 30 Colorado State 31 Michigan 32 Miami-FL 33 Missouri State 34 Oregon State 35 North Texas 36 Hawaii 37 Marquette 38 Northern Iowa 39 Maryland 40 Missouri 41 Kennesaw State 42 Notre Dame 43 Florida State 44 Iowa*** 45 LSU***46 Washington State (Last In) ======================= 47 UC Irvine (First Out) 48 Arkansas 49 Ohio State 50 NC State
51 Butler 52 College of Charleston
53 Denver 54 North Dakota 55 West Virginia 56 Dayton 57 Radford 58 Auburn 59 Georgia 60 Austin Peay 61 Sacramento State 62 Central Arkansas 63 Towson 64 Miami-OH 65 Loyola Marymount 66 James Madison 67 Pacific 68 High Point That likes LSU and Iowa in favor of NC State and College of Charleston. It really liked UC Irvine and REALLY dislikes High Point. North Texas is also safely in the top 40.
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Post by dman on Nov 26, 2017 15:37:18 GMT -5
I've always thought the best selection metric was what ESPN uses for college football - their Strength of Record metric which they says "Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule." I tried to replicate that using Pablo match probabilities and I think the result is actually pretty good. Better than pure RPI, better than pure Pablo, and actually pretty close to the final bracket of trojansc . 2017 Strength of Record1 Penn State 2 Stanford 3 Florida 4 Texas 5 Nebraska 6 Minnesota 7 BYU 8 Kentucky 9 Cal Poly 10 Washington 11 San Diego 12 UCLA 13 Michigan State 14 USC 15 Utah 16 Wisconsin 17 Iowa State 18 Wichita State 19 Colorado 20 Creighton 21 Baylor 22 Louisville 23 Western Kentucky 24 Illinois 25 Kansas 26 Purdue 27 Pittsburgh 28 Oregon 29 VCU 30 Colorado State 31 Michigan 32 Miami-FL 33 Missouri State 34 Oregon State 35 North Texas 36 Hawaii 37 Marquette 38 Northern Iowa 39 Maryland 40 Missouri 41 Kennesaw State 42 Notre Dame 43 Florida State 44 Iowa*** 45 LSU***46 Washington State (Last In) ======================= 47 UC Irvine (First Out) 48 Arkansas 49 Ohio State 50 NC State
51 Butler 52 College of Charleston
53 Denver 54 North Dakota 55 West Virginia 56 Dayton 57 Radford 58 Auburn 59 Georgia 60 Austin Peay 61 Sacramento State 62 Central Arkansas 63 Towson 64 Miami-OH 65 Loyola Marymount 66 James Madison 67 Pacific 68 High Point That likes LSU and Iowa in favor of NC State and College of Charleston. It really liked UC Irvine and REALLY dislikes High Point. North Texas is also safely in the top 40. I just want to be the first to say that I think you are BRILLIANT, n00b!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2017 22:09:41 GMT -5
RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the current w/l record for each D1 school plus the win probabilities for each team and their opponents per Pablo rating for the remaining scheduled matches.
With so few matches left, I would put more weight on the RPI probabilities and the individual team data from those probabilities. A lot could hinge on which PAC teams are in the top 25 (unadjusted RPI) and which are not.
1. Florida - SEC (25-1) - .7118, LW - 2, SOS - 11 2. Penn State - Big Ten (28-2) - .7113, LW - 1, SOS - 33 3. Kentucky - SEC (26-3) - .7092, LW - 3, SOS - 4 4. Texas - Big 12 (24-2) - .7020, LW - 4, SOS - 12 5. Stanford - Pac 12 (26-3) - .6998, LW - 6, SOS - 20 6. Nebraska - Big Ten (26-4) - .6982, LW - 5, SOS - 18 7. Minnesota - Big Ten (26-5) - .6896, LW - 7, SOS - 14 8. Washington - Pac 12 (24-7) - .6827, LW - 8, SOS - 7 9. Utah - Pac 12 (22-9) - .6601, LW - 12, SOS - 8 10. USC - Pac 12 (22-9) - .6589, LW - 9, SOS - 10 11. Baylor - Big 12 (23-6) - .6575, LW - 14, SOS - 34 12. Wisconsin - Big Ten (20-9) - .6563, LW - 16, SOS - 6 13. Kansas - Big 12 (23-6) - .6553, LW - 10, SOS - 28 14. Iowa State - Big 12 (21-6) - .6525, LW - 17, SOS - 23 15. Creighton - Big East (24-7) - .6505, LW - 13, SOS - 29 16. Wichita State - American Athletic (28-3) - .6502, LW - 18, SOS - 53 17. Michigan State - Big Ten (21-8) - .6491, LW - 11, SOS - 25 18. BYU - West Coast (28-2) - .6483, LW - 20, SOS - 72 19. Cal Poly - Big West (26-2) - .6454, LW - 21, SOS - 78 20. San Diego - West Coast (24-4) - .6422, LW - 24, SOS - 52 21. Colorado - Pac 12 (22-9) - .6413, LW - 22, SOS - 26 22. Oregon - Pac 12 (17-11) - .6408, LW - 15, SOS - 2 23. Louisville - ACC (24-6) - .6398, LW - 25, SOS - 47 24. UCLA - Pac 12 (18-11) - .6390, LW - 23, SOS - 3 25. Purdue - Big Ten (22-9) - .6383, LW - 19, SOS - 24 26. Oregon State - Pac 12 (22-10) - .6295, LW - 28, SOS - 27 27. Illinois - Big Ten (20-11) - .6295, LW - 27, SOS - 16 28. Pittsburgh - ACC (25-6) - .6269, LW - 29, SOS - 60 29. Western Kentucky - Conference USA (30-3) - .6266, LW - 26, SOS - 100 30. Marquette - Big East (22-9) - .6180, LW - 30, SOS - 38 31. Michigan - Big Ten (20-12) - .6161, LW - 32, SOS - 21 32. Colorado State - Mountain West (28-3) - .6130, LW - 31, SOS - 124 33. Missouri - SEC (20-11) - .6106, LW - 35, SOS - 22 34. Miami-FL - ACC (21-5) - .6090, LW - 38, SOS - 79 35. VCU - Atlantic 10 (30-2) - .6077, LW - 36, SOS - 184 36. Notre Dame - ACC (23-8) - .6035, LW - 41, SOS - 65 37. Washington State - Pac 12 (17-15) - .5998, LW - 42, SOS - 9 38. Hawaii - Big West (20-7) - .5988, LW - 46, SOS - 67 39. Ohio State - Big Ten (15-16) - .5977, LW - 34, SOS - 5 40. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (26-8) - .5971, LW - 45, SOS - 101 41. NC State - ACC (20-11) - .5968, LW - 37, SOS - 50 42. Missouri State - Missouri Valley (27-6) - .5966, LW - 43, SOS - 117 43. LSU - SEC (20-9) - .5960, LW - 39, SOS - 59 44. High Point - Big South (24-7) - .5946, LW - 40, SOS - 87 45. Auburn - SEC (16-11) - .5936, LW - 33, SOS - 19 46. Florida State - ACC (18-10) - .5933, LW - 49, SOS - 41 47. North Texas - Conference USA (28-3) - .5932, LW - 44, SOS - 207 48. Iowa - Big Ten (18-15) - .5918, LW - 47, SOS - 15 49. Maryland - Big Ten (18-14) - .5917, LW - 50, SOS - 30 50. Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun (21-4) - .5893, LW - 53, SOS - 149 51. College of Charleston - Colonial (27-5) - .5891, LW - 52, SOS - 169 52. James Madison - Colonial (23-5) - .5875, LW - 55, SOS - 135 53. Dayton - Atlantic 10 (23-8) - .5873, LW - 48, SOS - 88 54. Butler - Big East (23-8) - .5849, LW - 54, SOS - 99 55. Arkansas - SEC (19-11) - .5847, LW - 51, SOS - 49 56. Denver - The Summit (23-5) - .5807, LW - 59, SOS - 159 57. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley (30-5) - .5807, LW - 60, SOS - 201 58. Georgia - SEC (20-11) - .5800, LW - 56, SOS - 57 59. Alabama - SEC (19-13) - .5785, LW - 57, SOS - 45 60. Texas A&M - SEC (9-16) - .5772, LW - 61, SOS - 1 61. Radford - Big South (25-4) - .5759, LW - 62, SOS - 226 62. North Carolina - ACC (15-13) - .5750, LW - 58, SOS - 37 63. Princeton - Ivy (18-7) - .5726, LW - 66, SOS - 105 64. Miami-OH - Mid-American (23-8) - .5725, LW - 65, SOS - 122 65. American - Patriot (26-7) - .5701, LW - 68, SOS - 166 66. Towson - Colonial (26-5) - .5691, LW - 64, SOS - 234 67. Central Arkansas - Southland (27-4) - .5683, LW - 67, SOS - 250 68. Villanova - Big East (18-12) - .5672, LW - 78, SOS - 68 69. North Dakota - Big Sky (30-7) - .5635, LW - 79, SOS - 214 70. Texas State - Sun Belt (24-9) - .5628, LW - 70, SOS - 139 71. Rice - Conference USA (21-8) - .5615, LW - 63, SOS - 141 72. Cleveland State - Horizon (22-7) - .5613, LW - 74, SOS - 175 73. SMU - American Athletic (21-10) - .5601, LW - 69, SOS - 121 74. Navy - Patriot (23-8) - .5583, LW - 75, SOS - 167 75. Sacramento State - Big Sky (26-9) - .5576, LW - 77, SOS - 174 76. Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt (20-7) - .5573, LW - 88, SOS - 173 77. UC Irvine - Big West (22-7) - .5557, LW - 76, SOS - 192 78. Temple - American Athletic (19-9) - .5540, LW - 71, SOS - 118 79. Tennessee - SEC (12-15) - .5539, LW - 84, SOS - 36 80. Northwestern - Big Ten (14-18) - .5521, LW - 81, SOS - 35 81. Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun (16-13) - .5516, LW - 86, SOS - 64 82. TCU - Big 12 (11-17) - .5516, LW - 73, SOS - 17 83. Santa Clara - West Coast (15-15) - .5511, LW - 83, SOS - 56 84. Yale - Ivy (16-8) - .5508, LW - 82, SOS - 131 85. West Virginia - Big 12 (17-13) - .5503, LW - 85, SOS - 66 86. Boise State - Mountain West (17-13) - .5497, LW - 95, SOS - 74 87. Ole Miss - SEC (17-14) - .5493, LW - 91, SOS - 61 88. East Tennessee State - Southern (19-11) - .5483, LW - 98, SOS - 115 89. Wyoming - Mountain West (17-13) - .5481, LW - 89, SOS - 75 90. Duke - ACC (18-13) - .5474, LW - 90, SOS - 92 91. SIUE - Ohio Valley (23-6) - .5466, LW - 72, SOS - 257 92. Illinois State - Missouri Valley (21-12) - .5458, LW - 94, SOS - 129 93. Florida Atlantic - Conference USA (18-9) - .5458, LW - 80, SOS - 150 94. UCF - American Athletic (19-13) - .5449, LW - 100, SOS - 90 95. Loyola Marymount - West Coast (16-13) - .5431, LW - 99, SOS - 80 96. Arkansas State - Sun Belt (20-11) - .5409, LW - 92, SOS - 148 97. Stephen F. Austin - Southland (26-7) - .5393, LW - 87, SOS - 279 98. Pacific - West Coast (16-13) - .5388, LW - 105, SOS - 86 99. Texas-San Antonio - Conference USA (12-16) - .5387, LW - 111, SOS - 40 100. Cal - Pac 12 (13-18) - .5383, LW - 96, SOS - 46 101. Arizona - Pac 12 (11-18) - .5378, LW - 97, SOS - 31 102. Seton Hall - Big East (16-15) - .5367, LW - 93, SOS - 71 103. Hofstra - Colonial (18-14) - .5365, LW - 107, SOS - 97 104. Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun (22-10) - .5362, LW - 101, SOS - 205 105. Georgia Tech - ACC (14-17) - .5353, LW - 115, SOS - 58 106. Murray State - Ohio Valley (22-9) - .5353, LW - 110, SOS - 228 107. Green Bay - Horizon (15-15) - .5352, LW - 124, SOS - 69 108. Syracuse - ACC (19-14) - .5332, LW - 126, SOS - 130 109. Colgate - Patriot (18-10) - .5330, LW - 104, SOS - 172 110. Portland State - Big Sky (21-9) - .5327, LW - 103, SOS - 229 111. Pepperdine - West Coast (16-15) - .5325, LW - 102, SOS - 82 112. Kansas State - Big 12 (11-18) - .5323, LW - 118, SOS - 32 113. Texas Tech - Big 12 (15-14) - .5320, LW - 120, SOS - 91 114. Cincinnati - American Athletic (14-18) - .5319, LW - 130, SOS - 54 115. Oral Roberts - The Summit (15-13) - .5315, LW - 116, SOS - 94 116. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland (15-14) - .5315, LW - 109, SOS - 83 117. IUPUI - Horizon (16-14) - .5304, LW - 108, SOS - 96 118. Furman - Southern (21-10) - .5295, LW - 114, SOS - 220 119. LIU Brooklyn - Northeast (20-9) - .5290, LW - 132, SOS - 235 120. Drake - Missouri Valley (24-10) - .5279, LW - 119, SOS - 244 121. New Mexico State - WAC (21-8) - .5274, LW - 106, SOS - 266 122. Southern Miss - Conference USA (20-12) - .5268, LW - 136, SOS - 185 123. Oakland - Horizon (17-12) - .5264, LW - 113, SOS - 145 124. Indiana - Big Ten (12-20) - .5264, LW - 125, SOS - 44 125. Idaho - Big Sky (18-11) - .5260, LW - 121, SOS - 180 126. Ball State - Mid-American (19-11) - .5257, LW - 117, SOS - 190 127. Bowling Green - Mid-American (17-11) - .5252, LW - 112, SOS - 164 128. UC Davis - Big West (16-14) - .5249, LW - 122, SOS - 114 129. Northeastern - Colonial (17-13) - .5236, LW - 123, SOS - 140 130. Portland - West Coast (16-14) - .5230, LW - 138, SOS - 103 131. Cornell - Ivy (12-11) - .5217, LW - 133, SOS - 110 132. UNC Greensboro - Southern (19-11) - .5217, LW - 134, SOS - 210 133. Oklahoma - Big 12 (8-21) - .5196, LW - 128, SOS - 13 134. St. Johns - Big East (15-18) - .5186, LW - 127, SOS - 77 135. Ohio - Mid-American (17-15) - .5183, LW - 142, SOS - 125 136. Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun (18-10) - .5180, LW - 137, SOS - 236 137. South Alabama - Sun Belt (17-10) - .5166, LW - 141, SOS - 224 138. San Jose State - Mountain West (17-12) - .5164, LW - 129, SOS - 187 139. Arizona State - Pac 12 (11-21) - .5156, LW - 140, SOS - 39 140. Houston Baptist - Southland (21-10) - .5152, LW - 135, SOS - 268 141. Xavier - Big East (13-19) - .5150, LW - 155, SOS - 63 142. Tulsa - American Athletic (15-17) - .5142, LW - 131, SOS - 89 143. San Diego State - Mountain West (16-15) - .5137, LW - 139, SOS - 128 144. Western Michigan - Mid-American (18-13) - .5129, LW - 167, SOS - 188 145. South Carolina - SEC (13-17) - .5126, LW - 146, SOS - 85 146. North Dakota State - The Summit (19-9) - .5117, LW - 147, SOS - 280 147. South Dakota - The Summit (17-11) - .5113, LW - 144, SOS - 223 148. Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt (21-11) - .5088, LW - 145, SOS - 272 149. Wofford - Southern (22-11) - .5084, LW - 159, SOS - 281 150. Central Connecticut State - Northeast (19-8) - .5082, LW - 152, SOS - 288 151. Saint Marys - West Coast (9-19) - .5069, LW - 148, SOS - 42 152. Harvard - Ivy (13-10) - .5061, LW - 154, SOS - 194 153. Gonzaga - West Coast (13-17) - .5059, LW - 150, SOS - 104 154. Fairfield - Metro Atlantic (25-6) - .5058, LW - 156, SOS - 314 155. UT Rio Grande Valley - WAC (17-12) - .5055, LW - 151, SOS - 227 156. Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 (13-15) - .5047, LW - 143, SOS - 116 157. Campbell - Big South (20-11) - .5020, LW - 149, SOS - 276 158. Elon - Colonial (16-16) - .5018, LW - 158, SOS - 156 159. Northern Kentucky - Horizon (12-15) - .5016, LW - 172, SOS - 113 160. Belmont - Ohio Valley (14-15) - .5004, LW - 153, SOS - 147 161. East Carolina - American Athletic (21-12) - .4993, LW - 166, SOS - 271 162. Utah State - Mountain West (16-14) - .4990, LW - 170, SOS - 197 163. Stony Brook - American East (18-12) - .4987, LW - 187, SOS - 256 164. Lehigh - Patriot (18-13) - .4984, LW - 164, SOS - 242 165. Albany - American East (11-14) - .4977, LW - 157, SOS - 120 166. Illinois-Chicago - Horizon (17-13) - .4973, LW - 161, SOS - 237 167. Tulane - American Athletic (15-18) - .4968, LW - 168, SOS - 133 168. Army - Patriot (18-12) - .4965, LW - 163, SOS - 264 169. Northern Arizona - Big Sky (13-15) - .4959, LW - 171, SOS - 143 170. Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley (15-15) - .4955, LW - 183, SOS - 165 171. Bryant - Northeast (21-12) - .4955, LW - 165, SOS - 285 172. Central Michigan - Mid-American (15-14) - .4951, LW - 169, SOS - 196 173. Valparaiso - Missouri Valley (17-16) - .4946, LW - 162, SOS - 206 174. UCSB - Big West (8-20) - .4936, LW - 174, SOS - 55 175. Charlotte - Conference USA (19-12) - .4929, LW - 176, SOS - 274 176. USF - American Athletic (12-18) - .4924, LW - 185, SOS - 119 177. Northern Colorado - Big Sky (14-16) - .4923, LW - 178, SOS - 158 178. Providence - Big East (17-16) - .4918, LW - 184, SOS - 204 179. McNeese State - Southland (19-13) - .4916, LW - 177, SOS - 277 180. Duquesne - Atlantic 10 (13-16) - .4907, LW - 160, SOS - 151 181. Penn - Ivy (12-11) - .4907, LW - 179, SOS - 218 182. UNCW - Colonial (11-17) - .4906, LW - 182, SOS - 107 183. Buffalo - Mid-American (15-13) - .4902, LW - 173, SOS - 230 184. New Mexico - Mountain West (16-16) - .4898, LW - 181, SOS - 202 185. Wake Forest - ACC (12-20) - .4890, LW - 175, SOS - 106 186. Virginia Tech - ACC (10-21) - .4886, LW - 180, SOS - 70 187. Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (12-16) - .4884, LW - 199, SOS - 137 188. Northern Illinois - Mid-American (8-23) - .4879, LW - 186, SOS - 51 189. CSU Bakersfield - WAC (19-13) - .4871, LW - 208, SOS - 286 190. Virginia - ACC (7-24) - .4871, LW - 189, SOS - 48 191. Abilene Christian - Southland (13-18) - .4842, LW - 219, SOS - 136 192. Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley (13-19) - .4826, LW - 196, SOS - 138 193. Cal State Northridge - Big West (13-15) - .4823, LW - 188, SOS - 182 194. Marshall - Conference USA (11-19) - .4823, LW - 190, SOS - 112 195. Utah Valley - WAC (15-16) - .4815, LW - 191, SOS - 215 196. Eastern Michigan - Mid-American (16-18) - .4813, LW - 197, SOS - 200 197. Seattle - WAC (11-17) - .4806, LW - 192, SOS - 134 198. Air Force - Mountain West (14-18) - .4789, LW - 216, SOS - 179 199. Alabama State - SWAC (28-10) - .4784, LW - 206, SOS - 319 200. Long Beach State - Big West (10-19) - .4777, LW - 207, SOS - 109
The NCAA website doesn't have the most recent RPI posted....Do you have the current RPI handy?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 26, 2017 22:14:57 GMT -5
RPI Futures is a projected season ending RPI based on the current w/l record for each D1 school plus the win probabilities for each team and their opponents per Pablo rating for the remaining scheduled matches.
With so few matches left, I would put more weight on the RPI probabilities and the individual team data from those probabilities. A lot could hinge on which PAC teams are in the top 25 (unadjusted RPI) and which are not.
1. Florida - SEC (25-1) - .7118, LW - 2, SOS - 11 2. Penn State - Big Ten (28-2) - .7113, LW - 1, SOS - 33 3. Kentucky - SEC (26-3) - .7092, LW - 3, SOS - 4 4. Texas - Big 12 (24-2) - .7020, LW - 4, SOS - 12 5. Stanford - Pac 12 (26-3) - .6998, LW - 6, SOS - 20 6. Nebraska - Big Ten (26-4) - .6982, LW - 5, SOS - 18 7. Minnesota - Big Ten (26-5) - .6896, LW - 7, SOS - 14 8. Washington - Pac 12 (24-7) - .6827, LW - 8, SOS - 7 9. Utah - Pac 12 (22-9) - .6601, LW - 12, SOS - 8 10. USC - Pac 12 (22-9) - .6589, LW - 9, SOS - 10 11. Baylor - Big 12 (23-6) - .6575, LW - 14, SOS - 34 12. Wisconsin - Big Ten (20-9) - .6563, LW - 16, SOS - 6 13. Kansas - Big 12 (23-6) - .6553, LW - 10, SOS - 28 14. Iowa State - Big 12 (21-6) - .6525, LW - 17, SOS - 23 15. Creighton - Big East (24-7) - .6505, LW - 13, SOS - 29 16. Wichita State - American Athletic (28-3) - .6502, LW - 18, SOS - 53 17. Michigan State - Big Ten (21-8) - .6491, LW - 11, SOS - 25 18. BYU - West Coast (28-2) - .6483, LW - 20, SOS - 72 19. Cal Poly - Big West (26-2) - .6454, LW - 21, SOS - 78 20. San Diego - West Coast (24-4) - .6422, LW - 24, SOS - 52 21. Colorado - Pac 12 (22-9) - .6413, LW - 22, SOS - 26 22. Oregon - Pac 12 (17-11) - .6408, LW - 15, SOS - 2 23. Louisville - ACC (24-6) - .6398, LW - 25, SOS - 47 24. UCLA - Pac 12 (18-11) - .6390, LW - 23, SOS - 3 25. Purdue - Big Ten (22-9) - .6383, LW - 19, SOS - 24 26. Oregon State - Pac 12 (22-10) - .6295, LW - 28, SOS - 27 27. Illinois - Big Ten (20-11) - .6295, LW - 27, SOS - 16 28. Pittsburgh - ACC (25-6) - .6269, LW - 29, SOS - 60 29. Western Kentucky - Conference USA (30-3) - .6266, LW - 26, SOS - 100 30. Marquette - Big East (22-9) - .6180, LW - 30, SOS - 38 31. Michigan - Big Ten (20-12) - .6161, LW - 32, SOS - 21 32. Colorado State - Mountain West (28-3) - .6130, LW - 31, SOS - 124 33. Missouri - SEC (20-11) - .6106, LW - 35, SOS - 22 34. Miami-FL - ACC (21-5) - .6090, LW - 38, SOS - 79 35. VCU - Atlantic 10 (30-2) - .6077, LW - 36, SOS - 184 36. Notre Dame - ACC (23-8) - .6035, LW - 41, SOS - 65 37. Washington State - Pac 12 (17-15) - .5998, LW - 42, SOS - 9 38. Hawaii - Big West (20-7) - .5988, LW - 46, SOS - 67 39. Ohio State - Big Ten (15-16) - .5977, LW - 34, SOS - 5 40. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (26-8) - .5971, LW - 45, SOS - 101 41. NC State - ACC (20-11) - .5968, LW - 37, SOS - 50 42. Missouri State - Missouri Valley (27-6) - .5966, LW - 43, SOS - 117 43. LSU - SEC (20-9) - .5960, LW - 39, SOS - 59 44. High Point - Big South (24-7) - .5946, LW - 40, SOS - 87 45. Auburn - SEC (16-11) - .5936, LW - 33, SOS - 19 46. Florida State - ACC (18-10) - .5933, LW - 49, SOS - 41 47. North Texas - Conference USA (28-3) - .5932, LW - 44, SOS - 207 48. Iowa - Big Ten (18-15) - .5918, LW - 47, SOS - 15 49. Maryland - Big Ten (18-14) - .5917, LW - 50, SOS - 30 50. Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun (21-4) - .5893, LW - 53, SOS - 149 51. College of Charleston - Colonial (27-5) - .5891, LW - 52, SOS - 169 52. James Madison - Colonial (23-5) - .5875, LW - 55, SOS - 135 53. Dayton - Atlantic 10 (23-8) - .5873, LW - 48, SOS - 88 54. Butler - Big East (23-8) - .5849, LW - 54, SOS - 99 55. Arkansas - SEC (19-11) - .5847, LW - 51, SOS - 49 56. Denver - The Summit (23-5) - .5807, LW - 59, SOS - 159 57. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley (30-5) - .5807, LW - 60, SOS - 201 58. Georgia - SEC (20-11) - .5800, LW - 56, SOS - 57 59. Alabama - SEC (19-13) - .5785, LW - 57, SOS - 45 60. Texas A&M - SEC (9-16) - .5772, LW - 61, SOS - 1 61. Radford - Big South (25-4) - .5759, LW - 62, SOS - 226 62. North Carolina - ACC (15-13) - .5750, LW - 58, SOS - 37 63. Princeton - Ivy (18-7) - .5726, LW - 66, SOS - 105 64. Miami-OH - Mid-American (23-8) - .5725, LW - 65, SOS - 122 65. American - Patriot (26-7) - .5701, LW - 68, SOS - 166 66. Towson - Colonial (26-5) - .5691, LW - 64, SOS - 234 67. Central Arkansas - Southland (27-4) - .5683, LW - 67, SOS - 250 68. Villanova - Big East (18-12) - .5672, LW - 78, SOS - 68 69. North Dakota - Big Sky (30-7) - .5635, LW - 79, SOS - 214 70. Texas State - Sun Belt (24-9) - .5628, LW - 70, SOS - 139 71. Rice - Conference USA (21-8) - .5615, LW - 63, SOS - 141 72. Cleveland State - Horizon (22-7) - .5613, LW - 74, SOS - 175 73. SMU - American Athletic (21-10) - .5601, LW - 69, SOS - 121 74. Navy - Patriot (23-8) - .5583, LW - 75, SOS - 167 75. Sacramento State - Big Sky (26-9) - .5576, LW - 77, SOS - 174 76. Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt (20-7) - .5573, LW - 88, SOS - 173 77. UC Irvine - Big West (22-7) - .5557, LW - 76, SOS - 192 78. Temple - American Athletic (19-9) - .5540, LW - 71, SOS - 118 79. Tennessee - SEC (12-15) - .5539, LW - 84, SOS - 36 80. Northwestern - Big Ten (14-18) - .5521, LW - 81, SOS - 35 81. Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun (16-13) - .5516, LW - 86, SOS - 64 82. TCU - Big 12 (11-17) - .5516, LW - 73, SOS - 17 83. Santa Clara - West Coast (15-15) - .5511, LW - 83, SOS - 56 84. Yale - Ivy (16-8) - .5508, LW - 82, SOS - 131 85. West Virginia - Big 12 (17-13) - .5503, LW - 85, SOS - 66 86. Boise State - Mountain West (17-13) - .5497, LW - 95, SOS - 74 87. Ole Miss - SEC (17-14) - .5493, LW - 91, SOS - 61 88. East Tennessee State - Southern (19-11) - .5483, LW - 98, SOS - 115 89. Wyoming - Mountain West (17-13) - .5481, LW - 89, SOS - 75 90. Duke - ACC (18-13) - .5474, LW - 90, SOS - 92 91. SIUE - Ohio Valley (23-6) - .5466, LW - 72, SOS - 257 92. Illinois State - Missouri Valley (21-12) - .5458, LW - 94, SOS - 129 93. Florida Atlantic - Conference USA (18-9) - .5458, LW - 80, SOS - 150 94. UCF - American Athletic (19-13) - .5449, LW - 100, SOS - 90 95. Loyola Marymount - West Coast (16-13) - .5431, LW - 99, SOS - 80 96. Arkansas State - Sun Belt (20-11) - .5409, LW - 92, SOS - 148 97. Stephen F. Austin - Southland (26-7) - .5393, LW - 87, SOS - 279 98. Pacific - West Coast (16-13) - .5388, LW - 105, SOS - 86 99. Texas-San Antonio - Conference USA (12-16) - .5387, LW - 111, SOS - 40 100. Cal - Pac 12 (13-18) - .5383, LW - 96, SOS - 46 101. Arizona - Pac 12 (11-18) - .5378, LW - 97, SOS - 31 102. Seton Hall - Big East (16-15) - .5367, LW - 93, SOS - 71 103. Hofstra - Colonial (18-14) - .5365, LW - 107, SOS - 97 104. Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun (22-10) - .5362, LW - 101, SOS - 205 105. Georgia Tech - ACC (14-17) - .5353, LW - 115, SOS - 58 106. Murray State - Ohio Valley (22-9) - .5353, LW - 110, SOS - 228 107. Green Bay - Horizon (15-15) - .5352, LW - 124, SOS - 69 108. Syracuse - ACC (19-14) - .5332, LW - 126, SOS - 130 109. Colgate - Patriot (18-10) - .5330, LW - 104, SOS - 172 110. Portland State - Big Sky (21-9) - .5327, LW - 103, SOS - 229 111. Pepperdine - West Coast (16-15) - .5325, LW - 102, SOS - 82 112. Kansas State - Big 12 (11-18) - .5323, LW - 118, SOS - 32 113. Texas Tech - Big 12 (15-14) - .5320, LW - 120, SOS - 91 114. Cincinnati - American Athletic (14-18) - .5319, LW - 130, SOS - 54 115. Oral Roberts - The Summit (15-13) - .5315, LW - 116, SOS - 94 116. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland (15-14) - .5315, LW - 109, SOS - 83 117. IUPUI - Horizon (16-14) - .5304, LW - 108, SOS - 96 118. Furman - Southern (21-10) - .5295, LW - 114, SOS - 220 119. LIU Brooklyn - Northeast (20-9) - .5290, LW - 132, SOS - 235 120. Drake - Missouri Valley (24-10) - .5279, LW - 119, SOS - 244 121. New Mexico State - WAC (21-8) - .5274, LW - 106, SOS - 266 122. Southern Miss - Conference USA (20-12) - .5268, LW - 136, SOS - 185 123. Oakland - Horizon (17-12) - .5264, LW - 113, SOS - 145 124. Indiana - Big Ten (12-20) - .5264, LW - 125, SOS - 44 125. Idaho - Big Sky (18-11) - .5260, LW - 121, SOS - 180 126. Ball State - Mid-American (19-11) - .5257, LW - 117, SOS - 190 127. Bowling Green - Mid-American (17-11) - .5252, LW - 112, SOS - 164 128. UC Davis - Big West (16-14) - .5249, LW - 122, SOS - 114 129. Northeastern - Colonial (17-13) - .5236, LW - 123, SOS - 140 130. Portland - West Coast (16-14) - .5230, LW - 138, SOS - 103 131. Cornell - Ivy (12-11) - .5217, LW - 133, SOS - 110 132. UNC Greensboro - Southern (19-11) - .5217, LW - 134, SOS - 210 133. Oklahoma - Big 12 (8-21) - .5196, LW - 128, SOS - 13 134. St. Johns - Big East (15-18) - .5186, LW - 127, SOS - 77 135. Ohio - Mid-American (17-15) - .5183, LW - 142, SOS - 125 136. Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun (18-10) - .5180, LW - 137, SOS - 236 137. South Alabama - Sun Belt (17-10) - .5166, LW - 141, SOS - 224 138. San Jose State - Mountain West (17-12) - .5164, LW - 129, SOS - 187 139. Arizona State - Pac 12 (11-21) - .5156, LW - 140, SOS - 39 140. Houston Baptist - Southland (21-10) - .5152, LW - 135, SOS - 268 141. Xavier - Big East (13-19) - .5150, LW - 155, SOS - 63 142. Tulsa - American Athletic (15-17) - .5142, LW - 131, SOS - 89 143. San Diego State - Mountain West (16-15) - .5137, LW - 139, SOS - 128 144. Western Michigan - Mid-American (18-13) - .5129, LW - 167, SOS - 188 145. South Carolina - SEC (13-17) - .5126, LW - 146, SOS - 85 146. North Dakota State - The Summit (19-9) - .5117, LW - 147, SOS - 280 147. South Dakota - The Summit (17-11) - .5113, LW - 144, SOS - 223 148. Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt (21-11) - .5088, LW - 145, SOS - 272 149. Wofford - Southern (22-11) - .5084, LW - 159, SOS - 281 150. Central Connecticut State - Northeast (19-8) - .5082, LW - 152, SOS - 288 151. Saint Marys - West Coast (9-19) - .5069, LW - 148, SOS - 42 152. Harvard - Ivy (13-10) - .5061, LW - 154, SOS - 194 153. Gonzaga - West Coast (13-17) - .5059, LW - 150, SOS - 104 154. Fairfield - Metro Atlantic (25-6) - .5058, LW - 156, SOS - 314 155. UT Rio Grande Valley - WAC (17-12) - .5055, LW - 151, SOS - 227 156. Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 (13-15) - .5047, LW - 143, SOS - 116 157. Campbell - Big South (20-11) - .5020, LW - 149, SOS - 276 158. Elon - Colonial (16-16) - .5018, LW - 158, SOS - 156 159. Northern Kentucky - Horizon (12-15) - .5016, LW - 172, SOS - 113 160. Belmont - Ohio Valley (14-15) - .5004, LW - 153, SOS - 147 161. East Carolina - American Athletic (21-12) - .4993, LW - 166, SOS - 271 162. Utah State - Mountain West (16-14) - .4990, LW - 170, SOS - 197 163. Stony Brook - American East (18-12) - .4987, LW - 187, SOS - 256 164. Lehigh - Patriot (18-13) - .4984, LW - 164, SOS - 242 165. Albany - American East (11-14) - .4977, LW - 157, SOS - 120 166. Illinois-Chicago - Horizon (17-13) - .4973, LW - 161, SOS - 237 167. Tulane - American Athletic (15-18) - .4968, LW - 168, SOS - 133 168. Army - Patriot (18-12) - .4965, LW - 163, SOS - 264 169. Northern Arizona - Big Sky (13-15) - .4959, LW - 171, SOS - 143 170. Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley (15-15) - .4955, LW - 183, SOS - 165 171. Bryant - Northeast (21-12) - .4955, LW - 165, SOS - 285 172. Central Michigan - Mid-American (15-14) - .4951, LW - 169, SOS - 196 173. Valparaiso - Missouri Valley (17-16) - .4946, LW - 162, SOS - 206 174. UCSB - Big West (8-20) - .4936, LW - 174, SOS - 55 175. Charlotte - Conference USA (19-12) - .4929, LW - 176, SOS - 274 176. USF - American Athletic (12-18) - .4924, LW - 185, SOS - 119 177. Northern Colorado - Big Sky (14-16) - .4923, LW - 178, SOS - 158 178. Providence - Big East (17-16) - .4918, LW - 184, SOS - 204 179. McNeese State - Southland (19-13) - .4916, LW - 177, SOS - 277 180. Duquesne - Atlantic 10 (13-16) - .4907, LW - 160, SOS - 151 181. Penn - Ivy (12-11) - .4907, LW - 179, SOS - 218 182. UNCW - Colonial (11-17) - .4906, LW - 182, SOS - 107 183. Buffalo - Mid-American (15-13) - .4902, LW - 173, SOS - 230 184. New Mexico - Mountain West (16-16) - .4898, LW - 181, SOS - 202 185. Wake Forest - ACC (12-20) - .4890, LW - 175, SOS - 106 186. Virginia Tech - ACC (10-21) - .4886, LW - 180, SOS - 70 187. Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (12-16) - .4884, LW - 199, SOS - 137 188. Northern Illinois - Mid-American (8-23) - .4879, LW - 186, SOS - 51 189. CSU Bakersfield - WAC (19-13) - .4871, LW - 208, SOS - 286 190. Virginia - ACC (7-24) - .4871, LW - 189, SOS - 48 191. Abilene Christian - Southland (13-18) - .4842, LW - 219, SOS - 136 192. Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley (13-19) - .4826, LW - 196, SOS - 138 193. Cal State Northridge - Big West (13-15) - .4823, LW - 188, SOS - 182 194. Marshall - Conference USA (11-19) - .4823, LW - 190, SOS - 112 195. Utah Valley - WAC (15-16) - .4815, LW - 191, SOS - 215 196. Eastern Michigan - Mid-American (16-18) - .4813, LW - 197, SOS - 200 197. Seattle - WAC (11-17) - .4806, LW - 192, SOS - 134 198. Air Force - Mountain West (14-18) - .4789, LW - 216, SOS - 179 199. Alabama State - SWAC (28-10) - .4784, LW - 206, SOS - 319 200. Long Beach State - Big West (10-19) - .4777, LW - 207, SOS - 109
The NCAA website doesn't have the most recent RPI posted....Do you have the current RPI handy? This is site tracks the best at up to date RPI and what most of us are assuming will be the final RPI. ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,381
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Post by bluepenquin on Feb 13, 2018 15:19:18 GMT -5
I was doing a quick RPI Futures for Men's volleyball and trying to research how the Men's side handles bonus points and such. I was on the 4th page of a Google search and came across this; extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/sitepages/Home.aspxThis has way more RPI detail from the NCAA than I had ever seen before - didn't know it existed. Which led me to this search, which was much more detail on the final RPI before the tournament - and for me it allowed me to figure out why my RPI calculation was different from the official NCAA. extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/VB%20Team-by-Team%20League%20(all%20games)%20thru%20Nov%2025%202017.pdfSo the mistakes I was making: 1) Bonus Points - It appears the 1 place bonus is .0013 and not .0014. I thought for sure I read somewhere that it was .0014? This has little difference in the final results. 2) Opponent W/L% - I was under the impression that this was specific to the match being played. Nebraska beats Northwestern who was 14-18 on the season would get credit for beating a 14-17 team (the record of NW not counting that game). However, the NCAA takes into account all games between the 2 teams. Since Nebraska beat NW twice - then Nebraska gets credit for 2 matches against a 14-16 team. You then average all the opponent w/l% together (not the sum of opponents wins divided by wins + losses) - which I was doing correctly. This is the one that was causing the problem. Kennesaw State won 3 times against good record teams Lipscomb and Florida Gulf Coast - which caused me understate their RPI. I haven't validated the final component (Opponents/Opponents W/L%) - but I think this difference will be pretty minimal (if any). Now I will have to write my program to take into account multiple matches against the same opponent - not sure how to do that one. I guess I got a handful of months to figure it out.
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Post by n00b on Feb 13, 2018 18:36:26 GMT -5
I was doing a quick RPI Futures for Men's volleyball and trying to research how the Men's side handles bonus points and such. I was on the 4th page of a Google search and came across this; extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/sitepages/Home.aspxThis has way more RPI detail from the NCAA than I had ever seen before - didn't know it existed. Which led me to this search, which was much more detail on the final RPI before the tournament - and for me it allowed me to figure out why my RPI calculation was different from the official NCAA. extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/VB%20Team-by-Team%20League%20(all%20games)%20thru%20Nov%2025%202017.pdfSo the mistakes I was making: 1) Bonus Points - It appears the 1 place bonus is .0013 and not .0014. I thought for sure I read somewhere that it was .0014? This has little difference in the final results. 2) Opponent W/L% - I was under the impression that this was specific to the match being played. Nebraska beats Northwestern who was 14-18 on the season would get credit for beating a 14-17 team (the record of NW not counting that game). However, the NCAA takes into account all games between the 2 teams. Since Nebraska beat NW twice - then Nebraska gets credit for 2 matches against a 14-16 team. You then average all the opponent w/l% together (not the sum of opponents wins divided by wins + losses) - which I was doing correctly. This is the one that was causing the problem. Kennesaw State won 3 times against good record teams Lipscomb and Florida Gulf Coast - which caused me understate their RPI. I haven't validated the final component (Opponents/Opponents W/L%) - but I think this difference will be pretty minimal (if any). Now I will have to write my program to take into account multiple matches against the same opponent - not sure how to do that one. I guess I got a handful of months to figure it out. They must’ve changed that .0014 number. I used that nitty gritty a couple years back to derive .0014 and it was consistent. However, the championship handbook just says a bonus of x number of spots. I suppose it’s poissble they take the previous year’s RPI and calculate what the value of a 1-ranking difference actually is but that seems like a lot of work.
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 13, 2018 23:07:51 GMT -5
I was doing a quick RPI Futures for Men's volleyball and trying to research how the Men's side handles bonus points and such. I was on the 4th page of a Google search and came across this; extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/sitepages/Home.aspxThis has way more RPI detail from the NCAA than I had ever seen before - didn't know it existed. Which led me to this search, which was much more detail on the final RPI before the tournament - and for me it allowed me to figure out why my RPI calculation was different from the official NCAA. extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/VB%20Team-by-Team%20League%20(all%20games)%20thru%20Nov%2025%202017.pdfSo the mistakes I was making: 1) Bonus Points - It appears the 1 place bonus is .0013 and not .0014. I thought for sure I read somewhere that it was .0014? This has little difference in the final results. 2) Opponent W/L% - I was under the impression that this was specific to the match being played. Nebraska beats Northwestern who was 14-18 on the season would get credit for beating a 14-17 team (the record of NW not counting that game). However, the NCAA takes into account all games between the 2 teams. Since Nebraska beat NW twice - then Nebraska gets credit for 2 matches against a 14-16 team. You then average all the opponent w/l% together (not the sum of opponents wins divided by wins + losses) - which I was doing correctly. This is the one that was causing the problem. Kennesaw State won 3 times against good record teams Lipscomb and Florida Gulf Coast - which caused me understate their RPI. I haven't validated the final component (Opponents/Opponents W/L%) - but I think this difference will be pretty minimal (if any). Now I will have to write my program to take into account multiple matches against the same opponent - not sure how to do that one. I guess I got a handful of months to figure it out. I could have told you about #2 - actually if you look earlier in the Mens Bracketology thread I mentioned it. The way you have been doing it is close enough for most measurements. I have an algorithm for calculating that, let me look thru my old posts.
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 13, 2018 23:10:22 GMT -5
I was doing a quick RPI Futures for Men's volleyball and trying to research how the Men's side handles bonus points and such. I was on the 4th page of a Google search and came across this; extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/sitepages/Home.aspxThis has way more RPI detail from the NCAA than I had ever seen before - didn't know it existed. Which led me to this search, which was much more detail on the final RPI before the tournament - and for me it allowed me to figure out why my RPI calculation was different from the official NCAA. extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/VB%20Team-by-Team%20League%20(all%20games)%20thru%20Nov%2025%202017.pdfSo the mistakes I was making: 1) Bonus Points - It appears the 1 place bonus is .0013 and not .0014. I thought for sure I read somewhere that it was .0014? This has little difference in the final results. 2) Opponent W/L% - I was under the impression that this was specific to the match being played. Nebraska beats Northwestern who was 14-18 on the season would get credit for beating a 14-17 team (the record of NW not counting that game). However, the NCAA takes into account all games between the 2 teams. Since Nebraska beat NW twice - then Nebraska gets credit for 2 matches against a 14-16 team. You then average all the opponent w/l% together (not the sum of opponents wins divided by wins + losses) - which I was doing correctly. This is the one that was causing the problem. Kennesaw State won 3 times against good record teams Lipscomb and Florida Gulf Coast - which caused me understate their RPI. I haven't validated the final component (Opponents/Opponents W/L%) - but I think this difference will be pretty minimal (if any). Now I will have to write my program to take into account multiple matches against the same opponent - not sure how to do that one. I guess I got a handful of months to figure it out. They must’ve changed that .0014 number. I used that nitty gritty a couple years back to derive .0014 and it was consistent. However, the championship handbook just says a bonus of x number of spots. I suppose it’s poissble they take the previous year’s RPI and calculate what the value of a 1-ranking difference actually is but that seems like a lot of work. I think they actually use the current years unadjusted RPI and calculate the 1 ranking slot difference. But not positive.
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 14, 2018 0:11:19 GMT -5
I was doing a quick RPI Futures for Men's volleyball and trying to research how the Men's side handles bonus points and such. I was on the 4th page of a Google search and came across this; extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/sitepages/Home.aspxThis has way more RPI detail from the NCAA than I had ever seen before - didn't know it existed. Which led me to this search, which was much more detail on the final RPI before the tournament - and for me it allowed me to figure out why my RPI calculation was different from the official NCAA. extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/VB%20Team-by-Team%20League%20(all%20games)%20thru%20Nov%2025%202017.pdfSo the mistakes I was making: 1) Bonus Points - It appears the 1 place bonus is .0013 and not .0014. I thought for sure I read somewhere that it was .0014? This has little difference in the final results. 2) Opponent W/L% - I was under the impression that this was specific to the match being played. Nebraska beats Northwestern who was 14-18 on the season would get credit for beating a 14-17 team (the record of NW not counting that game). However, the NCAA takes into account all games between the 2 teams. Since Nebraska beat NW twice - then Nebraska gets credit for 2 matches against a 14-16 team. You then average all the opponent w/l% together (not the sum of opponents wins divided by wins + losses) - which I was doing correctly. This is the one that was causing the problem. Kennesaw State won 3 times against good record teams Lipscomb and Florida Gulf Coast - which caused me understate their RPI. I haven't validated the final component (Opponents/Opponents W/L%) - but I think this difference will be pretty minimal (if any). Now I will have to write my program to take into account multiple matches against the same opponent - not sure how to do that one. I guess I got a handful of months to figure it out. Here is the formula for #2, please double check as I couldn't find my old posting of it: You can do it by average of opp win % but it becomes very tricky when taking into account playing same team multiple times and removing your results versus them. You actually DO want to use sum of opp wins / (opp wins + opp losses ) but WITH A MODIFICATION. Modifications are: 1. subtract your own teams total losses from TOTAL OPP WINS (so OWP is not inflated by beating you) 2. subtract your own teams total wins from TOTAL OPP LOSSES (so OWP is not deflated cuz you beat them) So you basically just remove your teams W/L record from the equation, by subtracting from opposite total. Note that if you play a team twice you must add in their W/L twice. PM me if you have questions.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,381
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Post by bluepenquin on Feb 14, 2018 8:16:36 GMT -5
I was doing a quick RPI Futures for Men's volleyball and trying to research how the Men's side handles bonus points and such. I was on the 4th page of a Google search and came across this; extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/sitepages/Home.aspxThis has way more RPI detail from the NCAA than I had ever seen before - didn't know it existed. Which led me to this search, which was much more detail on the final RPI before the tournament - and for me it allowed me to figure out why my RPI calculation was different from the official NCAA. extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/VB%20Team-by-Team%20League%20(all%20games)%20thru%20Nov%2025%202017.pdfSo the mistakes I was making: 1) Bonus Points - It appears the 1 place bonus is .0013 and not .0014. I thought for sure I read somewhere that it was .0014? This has little difference in the final results. 2) Opponent W/L% - I was under the impression that this was specific to the match being played. Nebraska beats Northwestern who was 14-18 on the season would get credit for beating a 14-17 team (the record of NW not counting that game). However, the NCAA takes into account all games between the 2 teams. Since Nebraska beat NW twice - then Nebraska gets credit for 2 matches against a 14-16 team. You then average all the opponent w/l% together (not the sum of opponents wins divided by wins + losses) - which I was doing correctly. This is the one that was causing the problem. Kennesaw State won 3 times against good record teams Lipscomb and Florida Gulf Coast - which caused me understate their RPI. I haven't validated the final component (Opponents/Opponents W/L%) - but I think this difference will be pretty minimal (if any). Now I will have to write my program to take into account multiple matches against the same opponent - not sure how to do that one. I guess I got a handful of months to figure it out. Here is the formula for #2, please double check as I couldn't find my old posting of it: You can do it by average of opp win % but it becomes very tricky when taking into account playing same team multiple times and removing your results versus them. You actually DO want to use sum of opp wins / (opp wins + opp losses ) but WITH A MODIFICATION. Modifications are: 1. subtract your own teams total losses from TOTAL OPP WINS (so OWP is not inflated by beating you) 2. subtract your own teams total wins from TOTAL OPP LOSSES (so OWP is not deflated cuz you beat them) So you basically just remove your teams W/L record from the equation, by subtracting from opposite total. Note that if you play a team twice you must add in their W/L twice. PM me if you have questions. Thanks for the input. I used to do it by summing with the modifications mentioned - although I didn't account the additional adjustment for multiple matches against the same team. Somewhere along the line I was under the impression it was the average of the w/l% (which I believe makes more sense). The difference between average and the sum is minimal - however doing the sum is Way easier during the season. Not accounting for the multiple common matches can be significant - like Kennesaw State. With this ncaa site - I can now validate which one is accurate. Kennesaw matched with the opponent average when accounting for multiple common matches - I didn't check the sum (it is very possible they are the same in some circumstances). I will know check multiple teams and validate. Also, it looks like they produce this same detail each time they update and RPI - which means we can calculate the 1 place bonus/penalty value during the season in case they change from .0013.
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 14, 2018 16:51:35 GMT -5
Here is the formula for #2, please double check as I couldn't find my old posting of it: You can do it by average of opp win % but it becomes very tricky when taking into account playing same team multiple times and removing your results versus them. You actually DO want to use sum of opp wins / (opp wins + opp losses ) but WITH A MODIFICATION. Modifications are: 1. subtract your own teams total losses from TOTAL OPP WINS (so OWP is not inflated by beating you) 2. subtract your own teams total wins from TOTAL OPP LOSSES (so OWP is not deflated cuz you beat them) So you basically just remove your teams W/L record from the equation, by subtracting from opposite total. Note that if you play a team twice you must add in their W/L twice. PM me if you have questions. Thanks for the input. I used to do it by summing with the modifications mentioned - although I didn't account the additional adjustment for multiple matches against the same team. Somewhere along the line I was under the impression it was the average of the w/l% (which I believe makes more sense). The difference between average and the sum is minimal - however doing the sum is Way easier during the season. Not accounting for the multiple common matches can be significant - like Kennesaw State. With this ncaa site - I can now validate which one is accurate. Kennesaw matched with the opponent average when accounting for multiple common matches - I didn't check the sum (it is very possible they are the same in some circumstances). I will know check multiple teams and validate. Also, it looks like they produce this same detail each time they update and RPI - which means we can calculate the 1 place bonus/penalty value during the season in case they change from .0013. Please let me know results of your validation. I'm guessing that both methods should come up with same result, if modifications are done uniformly.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Feb 15, 2018 14:11:33 GMT -5
Please let me know results of your validation. I'm guessing that both methods should come up with same result, if modifications are done uniformly. It is the average of the opponents w/l% after modifications for #2. It is clearly different than the sum of the modified wins and losses - but usually not by much. Playing a team like Texas who has a good record, but doesn't play a lot of matches is a better opponent using average compared to sum.
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