bluepenquin
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Posts: 12,367
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 21, 2017 12:16:41 GMT -5
Here is the last of them for this week. Big East and Missouri Valley. Difficult to get to the probability stuff, so have to mostly use the old way and look at averages.
15. Creighton - Big East, Avg RPI Rank - 14.673 (15) T4 - 0% T16 - 65% T45 - 100% T90 - 100% Win BE Tournament (41%), Avg Rank - 11.1; 12th or better (86%), 14th or better (99.8%) Lose in 1st round of BE Tournament (20%), RPI Avearge ~ 24 Lose in BE final to Marquette - RPI Average ~ 18 Lose in BE final to Butler - RPI Average ~ 15
30. Marquette - Big East, Avg RPI Rank - 30.449 (30) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 100% T90 - 100% Win BE Tournament (33%), Avg Rank - 28.5; Lose in 1st round of BE Tournament (29%), RPI Average ~ 36 Lose in BE Final (38%), PI Average ~ 30
54. Butler - Big East, Avg RPI Rank - 53.498 (54) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 7% T90 - 100% Win BE Tournament, Avg Rank - ~ 37 Lose in BE final to Creighton, Avg Rank ~ 50 Lose in BE final to Villanova, Avg Rank ~ 53 Lose in 1st round (72%), Avg Rank - 56.1;
39. Missouri State - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 41.205 (42) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 82% T90 - 100% Win MVC Tournament (38%), Avg Rank - 36.8; 40th or better (99%) Lose 1st match in tournament (21%), Avg Rank ~ 47 Lose in MVC final to UNI, Avg Rank ~ 40 Lose in MVC final to Illinois State, Avg Rank ~ 45
41. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley, Avg RPI Rank - 42.236 (40) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 78% T90 - 100% Win MVC Tournament (31%), Avg Rank - 36.3; 40th or better (99%) Lose 1st match of tournament (35%), Avg Rank ~ 50 Lose in MVC final to Missouri State, Avg Rank ~ 43 Lose in MVC final to Drake, Avg Rank ~ 43
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Post by toomuchvb on Nov 21, 2017 12:21:05 GMT -5
So is this to imply the Final Four could most likely be PSU, Texas, Kentucky, and Florida, based on results through Week 13? Thank you. Nope - just that they are most likely to be the top 4 in the final RPI at the end of the season. I don't think this will even translate to the top 4 seeds, let alone the 4 teams that make the FF. Thanks for explaining. Obviously, needed help following the P5 RPI Futures posted.
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Post by badgerbreath on Nov 21, 2017 12:34:22 GMT -5
13. Wisconsin - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 13.16 (12) T4 - 0% T16 - 85% T45 - 100% T90 - 100% 12W (32%), Avg Rank - 9.8; 9th (46%), 10th (34%), 11th (14%), 12th (5%), 13h (1%) 11W (67%), Avg Rank - 14.8; 14th or better (46%), 15th (17%), 16th (15%), 17th (10%), 18th (6%), 19th or more (6%) Hmmmm. Two matches left, and Wisconsin could fall anywhere between 9 and 19 in RPI. And that's with one of those matches being a gimme! Basically, if Wisconsin loses to PSU, they might have a problem re RPI -- there is 22% chance of falling out of the top 16. Not high, but not zero by any stretch. I guess depending on what happens elsewhere. Is that because they are depending on the opponent RPI, or on other teams losing? If they win, they are pretty solidly 9th or 10th. That PSU match will be fraught with implications.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 21, 2017 13:28:50 GMT -5
13. Wisconsin - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 13.16 (12) T4 - 0% T16 - 85% T45 - 100% T90 - 100% 12W (32%), Avg Rank - 9.8; 9th (46%), 10th (34%), 11th (14%), 12th (5%), 13h (1%) 11W (67%), Avg Rank - 14.8; 14th or better (46%), 15th (17%), 16th (15%), 17th (10%), 18th (6%), 19th or more (6%) Hmmmm. Two matches left, and Wisconsin could fall anywhere between 9 and 19 in RPI. And that's with one of those matches being a gimme! Basically, if Wisconsin loses to PSU, they might have a problem re RPI -- there is 22% chance of falling out of the top 16. Not high, but not zero by any stretch. I guess depending on what happens elsewhere. Is that because they are depending on the opponent RPI, or on other teams losing? If they win, they are pretty solidly 9th or 10th. That PSU match will be fraught with implications. If Wisconsin loses to PSU, then their RPI will rest in the hands of how other teams finish up. This mostly includes how teams in the area around 16 will finish, but also some bonus point stuff that can change. Probably the biggest for Wisconsin will be if Maryland stays in the top 50 in unadjusted RPI (I currently have them at 50). And then Iowa. That is 2 wins against Maryland and 1 against Iowa. Ohio State dropping out of the T50 or Purdue out of the top 25 will not directly impact Wisconsin since they don't have any wins against those teams. And too many PAC bonus implications related to who and how many are in the top 25.
All in all - I think Wisconsin is in good shape (even if they lose to PSU). 17th and 18th RPI rank probably includes teams in front of them that they will likely pass when the committee looks at full resumes. Not that this gives much comfort with lack of certainty.
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Nov 21, 2017 14:18:35 GMT -5
How do you think that the fact that the UCLA-USC match won't end until around midnight, eastern time on Saturday night; will effect the committee's deliberations? I just don't see both UCLA & USC hosting - if it comes down to that match and UCLA has already won earlier in the week, I can see the committee penciling in the winner, just making UCLA a lower seed than USC would be
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 21, 2017 14:21:32 GMT -5
USC is already 15 spots higher than UCLA in RPI, and already beat the Bruins. Even 0-2 this week and USC could still be seeded. But if USC even beats Oregon and loses to UCLA, they'll still be higher than USC.
I think UCLA has the tougher Oregon matchup actually. Wouldn't want to travel to Corvalis for a 1pm match. Oregon has been struggling
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Post by Hawk Attack on Nov 21, 2017 14:22:47 GMT -5
So on the list, Iowa and Maryland are adjacent. If you pick one you pick....Maryland right? I think the only real scenario where it’s one or the other is if Iowa loses both matches this week and Maryland only wins one. In which case Maryland makes it in over Iowa. If Iowa wins a match this week they’re locked in. If Maryland wins both matches this week they’re locked in. If Maryland loses both matches they’re out. If Iowa loses both matches they’re almost certainly out.
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Post by mln59 on Nov 21, 2017 15:40:05 GMT -5
what does "LW" mean?
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Post by dman on Nov 21, 2017 15:41:59 GMT -5
LW=Last Week
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Post by mln59 on Nov 21, 2017 15:43:32 GMT -5
thanks and i now feel super dumb
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Post by trollhunter on Nov 21, 2017 18:44:04 GMT -5
TrojanSC beat me to the predictions this week, it is hard to add to his excellent analysis, but here are my thoughts on bubble teams based on latest RPI Futures and NCAA Nitty Gritty:
*NEED TO WIN 1 OF LAST 2 to EARN A NCAA AT-LARGE BID, OTHERWISE ON BUBBLE*
(33) Missouri - beat Alabama or Florida. Great SOS, RPI and a pair of T50 wins puts them in good position.
(34) Miami-Florida - relatively easy to win 1 match versus Georgia Tech and Clemson. 1 T25 and 3x t50 wins is solid.
(36) Notre Dame - whip Syracuse or Boston College to dance. Probably do not even need another win, their resume is so strong with 1x t25 and 5x t50 wins.
(37) Washington State - beat Arizona State or Washington. 2x t25 wins + 1x t50 and a great SOS.
(40) Northern Iowa - 3x t25 wins + 1x t50 put UNI in even if they lose MVC semi-final I think. May depend on how far they fall in RPI in that case.
(41) North Carolina State - beat Duke or Wake Forest. 4 top 50 wins is plenty this year.
(42) Missouri State - have 4x t50 wins but could lose 1. Just win MVC semi.
(47) Maryland - 2x t25 + 1x t50 and a strong SOS. Beat Ohio State or Northwestern to be one of last teams in.
(48) Iowa - if they can beat Illinois or Nebraska that will be 4x t50 wins plus strong SOS and should get them dancing.
**MUST WIN 2 MATCHES THIS WEEK TO EARN NCAA BID**
(39) Ohio State - beat Maryland and Illinois. Would give them 6x t50 and good SOS. Must win both to be +.500 win %
(43) LSU - beat Georgia + Tennessee, then hope Auburn stays t50 giving LSU 3x t50.
(45) Auburn - beat Florida and Arkansas. Only 1x t50 win now, but Florida would be a t25 win.
(46) Florida State - beat Georgia Tech and Clemson. They have wins over Baylor, Miami-FL, and Auburn, plus good SOS.
(58) Georgia - beat LSU and Kentucky. Only have 1 t50 win, but these would boost resume and RPI greatly.
***TEAMS RIGHT ON EDGE OF BUBBLE***
(38) Hawaii- Their RPI will move depending on how other teams finish. Probably a few teams in list above falter, so they squeeze in on bubble. Just 1x t25 win, 0x 50 wins, and ok SOS leaves them waiting and hoping.
(45) High Point - will get passed by teams with significant wins and better SOS.
(47) North Texas - If Oregon State or WKU finish top 25, that would put UNT resume similar to Hawaii. Could be interesting.
(50) College of Charleston - beat Baylor. If James Madison would finish top 50, COFC would get 2x t50 wins and be in bubble discussion.
(53) Dayton - nope.
(54) Butler - Must win BE tournament. Would steal an at-large bid probably.
(68) Villanova - must win BE tournament. Would steal an at-large bid probably.
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Post by Millennium on Nov 21, 2017 19:15:14 GMT -5
thanks and i now feel super dumb Don't! I asked the same exact question LW. No joke!
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Post by holakula on Nov 21, 2017 20:46:07 GMT -5
What is SOS?
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Post by dd2000 on Nov 21, 2017 20:55:33 GMT -5
I think she's a setter for a B1G team.
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Post by sunsuphornsup on Nov 21, 2017 20:59:17 GMT -5
I think she's a setter for a B1G team. Lol
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