bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 23, 2017 2:38:39 GMT -5
Top 25 wins: 1. Kentucky (5): Florida (3), USC (9), Utah (10), Kansas (15), Louisville (23) 2. Penn State (8): Stanford/2 (4), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), Colorado (21), Illinois/2 (25) (Wisconsin & Minnesota still to play) 3. Florida (3): Kentucky (1), Texas (5), Nebraska (6) 4. Stanford (10): Washington (8), USC/2 (9), Utah (10), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24), Illinois (25) 5. Texas (7): Baylor (11), Iowa State/2 (13), Kansas/2 (15), Oregon (24), San Diego (22) (Baylor still to play) 6. Nebraska (7): Penn State (2), Minnesota (7), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), UCLA/2 (20), Illinois (25) 7. Minnesota (5): Texas (5), Wisconsin/2 (12), Louisville (23), Illinois (25) (Penn State still to play) 8. Washington (9): Stanford (4), USC (9), Utah (10), Cal Poly (19), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24) (If I missed any, let me know.) Will the Committee reward two SEC teams as regional hosts when they have only 8 top-25 wins between them? If not, which one do they dump, Kentucky or Florida? And which team jumps up to #4, Texas or Nebraska? If Florida and Kentucky both win their final match - Florida ends up with a higher RPI 62% of the time. I still think it is unlikely that both will be top 4 seeds. Seems to me that Penn State and Stanford are the most likely regional hosts - after that....
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 23, 2017 2:41:43 GMT -5
I think that USC became the 9th team to get a seed. That leaves 7 spots left and here is how I would rank the remaining contenders for those next 7 spots. Utah is pretty close to being a lock. Below is if their final game(s) result is this, then this is the % chance they will finish in the top 14 or 16 in RPI.
Utah 1L - Avg RPI - 13.4, 14th or better (83%), 16th or better (98%)
Baylor 1L - Avg RPI - 13.7, 14th pr better (68%), 16th or better (94%)
Iowa State 1W - Avg RI - 12.6, 14th or better (93%), 16th or better (99%)
Wisconsin 1L -Avg RPI - 16.3, 14th or better (22%), 16th or better (47%)
Kansas 1W - Avg RPI - 13.5; 14th or better (68%), 16th or better (89%)
Creighton BE Champs - Avg RPI - 10.5,
Michigan State 2W - Avg RPI - 13.5, 14th or better (71%), 16th or better (91%)
UCLA 1W - Avg RPI - 16.4, 14th or better (8%), 16th or better (54%), 18th or better (95%)
Colorado 1W - Avg RPI - 16.2; 14th or better (16%), 16th or better (55%), 18th or better (92%)
BYU 14th or better (24%), 16TH or better (61%)
Wichita State 1W - Avg RPI - 16.0, 14th or better (21%), 16TH or better (57%)
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 23, 2017 3:09:12 GMT -5
If we apply the 2014 FSU standard, a team that was #2 in the RPI leading up to the tournament, played in a weaker ACC conference, didn’t have nearly as many top 25 wins as other teams in consideration, was seeded 6th that year I don’t think it’s unprecedented to look at the SEC teams and not feel entirely confident about their seeding chances relative to their actually RPI. Different committee, sure, but.....
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Post by southie on Nov 23, 2017 3:30:30 GMT -5
Top 25 wins: 1. Kentucky (5): Florida (3), USC (9), Utah (10), Kansas (15), Louisville (23) 2. Penn State (8): Stanford/2 (4), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), Colorado (21), Illinois/2 (25) (Wisconsin & Minnesota still to play) 3. Florida (3): Kentucky (1), Texas (5), Nebraska (6) 4. Stanford (10): Washington (8), USC/2 (9), Utah (10), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24), Illinois (25) 5. Texas (7): Baylor (11), Iowa State/2 (13), Kansas/2 (15), Oregon (24), San Diego (22) (Baylor still to play) 6. Nebraska (7): Penn State (2), Minnesota (7), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), UCLA/2 (20), Illinois (25) 7. Minnesota (5): Texas (5), Wisconsin/2 (12), Louisville (23), Illinois (25) (Penn State still to play) 8. Washington (9): Stanford (4), USC (9), Utah (10), Cal Poly (19), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24) (If I missed any, let me know.) Will the Committee reward two SEC teams as regional hosts when they have only 8 top-25 wins between them? If not, which one do they dump, Kentucky or Florida? And which team jumps up to #4, Texas or Nebraska? So, someone answer me this. It was said that the committee bumped Nebraska up significantly in its rankings compared to RPI because of its number of Top 25 wins. Should we expect the same to be done for Washington? They will have more Top 25 wins than Nebraska and everyone else except Stanford.
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Post by txnut on Nov 23, 2017 8:00:42 GMT -5
Top 25 wins: 1. Kentucky (5): Florida (3), USC (9), Utah (10), Kansas (15), Louisville (23) 2. Penn State (8): Stanford/2 (4), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), Colorado (21), Illinois/2 (25) (Wisconsin & Minnesota still to play) 3. Florida (3): Kentucky (1), Texas (5), Nebraska (6) 4. Stanford (10): Washington (8), USC/2 (9), Utah (10), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24), Illinois (25) 5. Texas (7): Baylor (11), Iowa State/2 (13), Kansas/2 (15), Oregon (24), San Diego (22) (Baylor still to play) 6. Nebraska (7): Penn State (2), Minnesota (7), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), UCLA/2 (20), Illinois (25) 7. Minnesota (5): Texas (5), Wisconsin/2 (12), Louisville (23), Illinois (25) (Penn State still to play) 8. Washington (9): Stanford (4), USC (9), Utah (10), Cal Poly (19), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24) (If I missed any, let me know.) Will the Committee reward two SEC teams as regional hosts when they have only 8 top-25 wins between them? If not, which one do they dump, Kentucky or Florida? And which team jumps up to #4, Texas or Nebraska? Kentucky was swept by Kansas which makes their (SEC) totals worse.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Nov 23, 2017 9:06:20 GMT -5
Iowa as high as 44 with a loss to Nebraska? Iowa's RPI Future improved from .5918 to .5927 from the start of the week due to Ohio State winning and moving into the unadjusted Top 50. Iowa beat Ohio State twice. These movements between inside and outside the T50 for teams that beat them twice is rather huge. RPI Futures Probabilities (1000 simulations) does a good job of picking this stuff up. The regular RPI Futures doesn't do a good job of this. Huh... I mean... not complaining. I did not expect that.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 23, 2017 9:18:12 GMT -5
Iowa's RPI Future improved from .5918 to .5927 from the start of the week due to Ohio State winning and moving into the unadjusted Top 50. Iowa beat Ohio State twice. These movements between inside and outside the T50 for teams that beat them twice is rather huge. RPI Futures Probabilities (1000 simulations) does a good job of picking this stuff up. The regular RPI Futures doesn't do a good job of this. Huh... I mean... not complaining. I did not expect that. Looks like things fell into place and they have increased that 9% chance they had earlier in the week. I certainly didn't expect it, but then I wasn't looking for it... 48. Iowa - Big Ten, Avg RPI Rank - 45.718 (48) T4 - 0% T16 - 0% T45 - 37% T90 - 100% 8W (29%), Avg Rank - 40.2; 45th or better (99%) 7W (69%), Avg Rank - 48.4; 45th or better (9%), 50th or better (77%)
Curious as to their odds now of making the tournament - assuming they lose their last one? Current Figstat RPI is now 46. RPI Futures gives them a 61% chance of finishing in the top 45 (assuming they lose to Nebraska). However my Kennesaw State problem makes that 46 and not 45 and a 38% chance of top 44/45.
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Post by pavsec5row10 on Nov 23, 2017 11:25:21 GMT -5
Top 25 wins: 1. Kentucky (5): Florida (3), USC (9), Utah (10), Kansas (15), Louisville (23) 2. Penn State (8): Stanford/2 (4), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), Colorado (21), Illinois/2 (25) (Wisconsin & Minnesota still to play) 3. Florida (3): Kentucky (1), Texas (5), Nebraska (6) 4. Stanford (10): Washington (8), USC/2 (9), Utah (10), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24), Illinois (25) 5. Texas (7): Baylor (11), Iowa State/2 (13), Kansas/2 (15), Oregon (24), San Diego (22) (Baylor still to play) 6. Nebraska (7): Penn State (2), Minnesota (7), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), UCLA/2 (20), Illinois (25) 7. Minnesota (5): Texas (5), Wisconsin/2 (12), Louisville (23), Illinois (25) (Penn State still to play) 8. Washington (9): Stanford (4), USC (9), Utah (10), Cal Poly (19), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24) (If I missed any, let me know.) Will the Committee reward two SEC teams as regional hosts when they have only 8 top-25 wins between them? If not, which one do they dump, Kentucky or Florida? And which team jumps up to #4, Texas or Nebraska? Is this AVCA top 25? What are these numbers with RPI unadjusted top 25, or RPI futures top 25?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 23, 2017 12:27:33 GMT -5
Top 25 wins: 1. Kentucky (5): Florida (3), USC (9), Utah (10), Kansas (15), Louisville (23) 2. Penn State (8): Stanford/2 (4), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), Colorado (21), Illinois/2 (25) (Wisconsin & Minnesota still to play) 3. Florida (3): Kentucky (1), Texas (5), Nebraska (6) 4. Stanford (10): Washington (8), USC/2 (9), Utah (10), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24), Illinois (25) 5. Texas (7): Baylor (11), Iowa State/2 (13), Kansas/2 (15), Oregon (24), San Diego (22) (Baylor still to play) 6. Nebraska (7): Penn State (2), Minnesota (7), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), UCLA/2 (20), Illinois (25) 7. Minnesota (5): Texas (5), Wisconsin/2 (12), Louisville (23), Illinois (25) (Penn State still to play) 8. Washington (9): Stanford (4), USC (9), Utah (10), Cal Poly (19), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24) (If I missed any, let me know.) Will the Committee reward two SEC teams as regional hosts when they have only 8 top-25 wins between them? If not, which one do they dump, Kentucky or Florida? And which team jumps up to #4, Texas or Nebraska? So, someone answer me this. It was said that the committee bumped Nebraska up significantly in its rankings compared to RPI because of its number of Top 25 wins. Should we expect the same to be done for Washington? They will have more Top 25 wins than Nebraska and everyone else except Stanford. I count 10 T25 wins for Nebraska. Missing a 2nd win against Michigan State and 2 wins against Purdue. Texas is at 6 (unless Oregon gets back into the T25) with Baylor still o/s. The 3 for Florida is much lower than I would have thought - but then they are all against the 3 very teams they will be fighting with for a seed. Nebraska, Texas, Florida, and Kentucky will be interesting (assuming each wins out). Also, Nebraska was #4 at the time and was 'bumped' up to #2. I don't consider this to necessarily be significant...
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Post by jake on Nov 23, 2017 13:17:28 GMT -5
I think that USC became the 9th team to get a seed. That leaves 7 spots left and here is how I would rank the remaining contenders for those next 7 spots. Utah is pretty close to being a lock. Below is if their final game(s) result is this, then this is the % chance they will finish in the top 14 or 16 in RPI. Utah 1L - Avg RPI - 13.4, 14th or better (83%), 16th or better (98%) Baylor 1L - Avg RPI - 13.7, 14th pr better (68%), 16th or better (94%) Iowa State 1W - Avg RI - 12.6, 14th or better (93%), 16th or better (99%) Wisconsin 1L -Avg RPI - 16.3, 14th or better (22%), 16th or better (47%) Kansas 1W - Avg RPI - 13.5; 14th or better (68%), 16th or better (89%) Creighton BE Champs - Avg RPI - 10.5, Michigan State 2W - Avg RPI - 13.5, 14th or better (71%), 16th or better (91%) UCLA 1W - Avg RPI - 16.4, 14th or better (8%), 16th or better (54%), 18th or better (95%) Colorado 1W - Avg RPI - 16.2; 14th or better (16%), 16th or better (55%), 18th or better (92%) BYU 14th or better (24%), 16TH or better (61%) Wichita State 1W - Avg RPI - 16.0, 14th or better (21%), 16TH or better (57%) CAL POLY seeded before Ucla and Colorado.
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Post by sisyphus on Nov 23, 2017 13:29:06 GMT -5
I think that USC became the 9th team to get a seed. That leaves 7 spots left and here is how I would rank the remaining contenders for those next 7 spots. Utah is pretty close to being a lock. Below is if their final game(s) result is this, then this is the % chance they will finish in the top 14 or 16 in RPI. CAL POLY seeded before Ucla and Colorado. Is your reasoning based on the seed selection criteria?
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Post by Northern lights on Nov 23, 2017 13:33:49 GMT -5
So, someone answer me this. It was said that the committee bumped Nebraska up significantly in its rankings compared to RPI because of its number of Top 25 wins. Should we expect the same to be done for Washington? They will have more Top 25 wins than Nebraska and everyone else except Stanford. I count 10 T25 wins for Nebraska. Missing a 2nd win against Michigan State and 2 wins against Purdue. Texas is at 6 (unless Oregon gets back into the T25) with Baylor still o/s. The 3 for Florida is much lower than I would have thought - but then they are all against the 3 very teams they will be fighting with for a seed. Nebraska, Texas, Florida, and Kentucky will be interesting (assuming each wins out). Also, Nebraska was #4 at the time and was 'bumped' up to #2. I don't consider this to necessarily be significant... bluepenquin can you predict Michigan's final rank? Maybe what bracket they will be in?
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Post by sisyphus on Nov 23, 2017 13:52:10 GMT -5
I count 10 T25 wins for Nebraska. Missing a 2nd win against Michigan State and 2 wins against Purdue. Texas is at 6 (unless Oregon gets back into the T25) with Baylor still o/s. The 3 for Florida is much lower than I would have thought - but then they are all against the 3 very teams they will be fighting with for a seed. Nebraska, Texas, Florida, and Kentucky will be interesting (assuming each wins out). Also, Nebraska was #4 at the time and was 'bumped' up to #2. I don't consider this to necessarily be significant... bluepenquin can you predict Michigan's final rank? Maybe what bracket they will be in? Check the bracketology thread for bracket predictions. That's trojansc territory.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 23, 2017 14:11:30 GMT -5
I count 10 T25 wins for Nebraska. Missing a 2nd win against Michigan State and 2 wins against Purdue. Texas is at 6 (unless Oregon gets back into the T25) with Baylor still o/s. The 3 for Florida is much lower than I would have thought - but then they are all against the 3 very teams they will be fighting with for a seed. Nebraska, Texas, Florida, and Kentucky will be interesting (assuming each wins out). Also, Nebraska was #4 at the time and was 'bumped' up to #2. I don't consider this to necessarily be significant... bluepenquin can you predict Michigan's final rank? Maybe what bracket they will be in? Michigan will obviously not be hosting a subregional. Thee only site within 400 miles I believe is Kentucky, which there is a good chance that is going to happen. Right now I have Purdue playing Western Kentucky in Kentucky's place. Michigan could get paired with WKU in Lexington. Michigan can easily be placed in any regional because you don't know which of the 16 seeds they're going to get sent to. Right now I have Michigan playing Hawaii the first round in 8th-seeded Washington's subregional. I think Cal Poly/San Diego are going to Stanford/USC respectively, so I don't think the commiteee would send Michigan there (RPI a little too good). Hawaii could easily be shipped to USC or somewhere else. There's a good chance Hawaii gets shipped to Texas or Baylor.
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Post by flyingMoose on Nov 23, 2017 14:45:50 GMT -5
Are OOC rematches common? Wichita State v Oregon in this case?
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