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Post by Millennium on Nov 23, 2017 15:04:18 GMT -5
So, someone answer me this. It was said that the committee bumped Nebraska up significantly in its rankings compared to RPI because of its number of Top 25 wins. Should we expect the same to be done for Washington? They will have more Top 25 wins than Nebraska and everyone else except Stanford. I count 10 T25 wins for Nebraska. Missing a 2nd win against Michigan State and 2 wins against Purdue. Texas is at 6 (unless Oregon gets back into the T25) with Baylor still o/s. The 3 for Florida is much lower than I would have thought - but then they are all against the 3 very teams they will be fighting with for a seed. Nebraska, Texas, Florida, and Kentucky will be interesting (assuming each wins out). Also, Nebraska was #4 at the time and was 'bumped' up to #2. I don't consider this to necessarily be significant... So, if Nebraska's final RPI is 6, what seed do you think the committee would give them? Do they drop to 4? I can't see them staying at 2.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 23, 2017 16:05:44 GMT -5
So, someone answer me this. It was said that the committee bumped Nebraska up significantly in its rankings compared to RPI because of its number of Top 25 wins. Should we expect the same to be done for Washington? They will have more Top 25 wins than Nebraska and everyone else except Stanford. I count 10 T25 wins for Nebraska. Missing a 2nd win against Michigan State and 2 wins against Purdue. Texas is at 6 (unless Oregon gets back into the T25) with Baylor still o/s. The 3 for Florida is much lower than I would have thought - but then they are all against the 3 very teams they will be fighting with for a seed. Nebraska, Texas, Florida, and Kentucky will be interesting (assuming each wins out). Also, Nebraska was #4 at the time and was 'bumped' up to #2. I don't consider this to necessarily be significant... Was going by this: After Wednesday matches.
1. Kentucky 2. Penn State 3. Florida 4. Stanford 5. Texas 6. Nebraska 7. Minnesota 8. Washington 9. USC 10. Utah 11. Baylor 12. Wisconsin 13. Iowa State 14. Creighton 15. Kansas 16. BYU 17. Wichita State 18. Michigan State 19. Cal Poly 20. UCLA 21. Colorado 22. San Diego 23. Louisville 24. Oregon 25. Illinois
Purdue is #26. I understand that lots can happen at the margin: 23. Louisville (Kentucky), 24. Oregon (Stanford/2, Texas, Washington/2), 25. Illinois (Penn State/2, Stanford, Nebraska, Minnesota), and 26. Purdue (Penn State, Nebraska/2, Minnesota) could end up in or out. Consider this as a hypothetical snapshot, rather than a prediction. My understanding is that for significant wins teams are credited for top-25 RPI wins, but aren't debited for top-25 RPI losses, except in deciding a head-to-head. Thus Kentucky would not be debited for being swept by Kansas (already included in RPI), except in a head-to-head with Texas (which beat Kansas twice). Am I right? I fixed the Michigan State error.
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Post by bucky415 on Nov 23, 2017 16:34:06 GMT -5
I am sure of one thing: no matter the RPI, there is no way with so many of them on the edge that Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, and Wichita State are hosting, especially with Nebraska and Minnesota locks. No way the NCAA is paying for that many flights.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 23, 2017 16:54:09 GMT -5
Top 25 wins: 1. Kentucky (5): Florida (3), USC (9), Utah (10), Kansas (15), Louisville (23) 2. Penn State (8): Stanford/2 (4), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St (18), Colorado (21), Illinois/2 (25) (Wisconsin & Minnesota still to play) 3. Florida (3): Kentucky (1), Texas (5), Nebraska (6) 4. Stanford (10): Washington (8), USC/2 (9), Utah (10), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24), Illinois (25) 5. Texas (7): Baylor (11), Iowa State/2 (13), Kansas/2 (15), Oregon (24), San Diego (22) (Baylor still to play) 6. Nebraska ( 78): Penn State (2), Minnesota (7), Wisconsin (12), Michigan St /2 (18), UCLA/2 (20), Illinois (25) 7. Minnesota (5): Texas (5), Wisconsin/2 (12), Louisville (23), Illinois (25) (Penn State still to play) 8. Washington (9): Stanford (4), USC (9), Utah (10), Cal Poly (19), UCLA/2 (20), Colorado (21), Oregon/2 (24) (If I missed any, let me know.) Will the Committee reward two SEC teams as regional hosts when they have only 8 top-25 wins between them? If not, which one do they dump, Kentucky or Florida? And which team jumps up to #4, Texas or Nebraska? So, someone answer me this. It was said that the committee bumped Nebraska up significantly in its rankings compared to RPI because of its number of Top 25 wins. Should we expect the same to be done for Washington? They will have more Top 25 wins than Nebraska and everyone else except Stanford. I corrected Nebraska's total to 8 - if Purdue jumps back in, and Illinois doesn't fall back out, that would give them 10. Stanford's and Washington's totals would fall by two, if Oregon falls out. The thought did cross my mind whether the Committee might leap-frog Washington over Minnesota, especially if Louisville and/or Illinois fall out of the top-25. It would get them off the #8/#9 schneid.
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Post by n00b on Nov 23, 2017 17:32:20 GMT -5
I am sure of one thing: no matter the RPI, there is no way with so many of them on the edge that Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, and Wichita State are hosting, especially with Nebraska and Minnesota locks. No way the NCAA is paying for that many flights. There is a zero percent chance that that matters. The administrators on the selection committee have a very specific rubric that they follow very strictly. They first pick and seed the top 16 teams. THEN they place teams at those 16 subregionals to minimize flights. Last year there was "NO WAY" that they would have all four regionals in the central time zone. Well that wasn't true either. Now, to be fair chances are that you'll be correct. The odds of all four of those teams hosting is very small but it has nothing to do with numbers of flights.
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Post by southie on Nov 23, 2017 19:20:03 GMT -5
Does anyone recall if last season's committee provided their rationale for bumping Penn State all they way up to the #16 national seed? That might have been the biggest surprise of all the seedings. Is there a team out there this season who could get bumped all the way up to #16 that no one is considering a candidate right now?
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Post by dd2000 on Nov 23, 2017 19:26:01 GMT -5
Does anyone recall if last season's committee provided their rationale for bumping Penn State all they way up to the #16 national seed? That might have been the biggest surprise of all the seedings. Is there a team out there this season who could get bumped all they up to #16 that no one is considering a candidate right now? I'm pretty sure the next time we see that huge of an upgrade happen, will be in a year when Penn State is once again far on the outside looking in.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 23, 2017 19:40:06 GMT -5
I'm hoping PSU was credited for the strength of their conference, and weren't motivated by an uncontrolled urge to kiss Russ Rose's behind. On the other hand, it gave Pitt, Dayton, and LIU Brooklyn a place to drive to. Maybe it was all-three...
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Post by southie on Nov 23, 2017 19:44:55 GMT -5
I'm hoping PSU was credited for the strength of their conference, and weren't motivated by an uncontrolled urge to kiss Russ Rose's behind. On the other hand, it gave Pitt, Dayton, and LIU Brooklyn a place to drive to. Maybe it was all-three... Was just wondering if one specific criteria (wins over Top 25 teams, games played against Top 25 teams, etc.) was valued by the committee and it worked in PSU's favor.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Nov 23, 2017 19:57:46 GMT -5
All I remember was that it was much debated at the time, with equal measures of indignation and excuses proffered. My thinking is that it made travel easier and that every other excuse was a cover. If that is the case, then why not simply allot PSU an automatic seed every year?
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Post by southie on Nov 23, 2017 20:29:37 GMT -5
So, someone answer me this. It was said that the committee bumped Nebraska up significantly in its rankings compared to RPI because of its number of Top 25 wins. Should we expect the same to be done for Washington? They will have more Top 25 wins than Nebraska and everyone else except Stanford. I count 10 T25 wins for Nebraska. Missing a 2nd win against Michigan State and 2 wins against Purdue. Texas is at 6 (unless Oregon gets back into the T25) with Baylor still o/s. The 3 for Florida is much lower than I would have thought - but then they are all against the 3 very teams they will be fighting with for a seed. Nebraska, Texas, Florida, and Kentucky will be interesting (assuming each wins out). Also, Nebraska was #4 at the time and was 'bumped' up to #2. I don't consider this to necessarily be significant... You are correct; NU was #4 in RPI on 10/30: 1 Penn St. Big Ten 21-1 7-0 5-0 9-1 0-0 2 Minnesota Big Ten 21-2 7-1 6-0 8-1 0-0 3 Kentucky Southeastern 19-2 6-2 3-0 10-0 0-0 4 Nebraska Big Ten 18-4 7-2 1-2 10-0 0-0 5 Florida Southeastern 18-1 5-0 2-0 11-1 0-0 6 Texas Big 12 17-2 8-1 3-0 6-1 0-0 7 Stanford Pac-12 19-2 11-0 2-2 6-0 0-0 8 Wisconsin Big Ten 15-6 3-4 2-0 10-2 0-0 9 Washington Pac-12 18-5 6-2 3-0 9-3 0-0 10 Oregon Pac-12 14-6 2-3 1-1 11-2 0-0 So that translated to Top 10 committee rankings of: 1 Penn State 2 Nebraska 3 Minnesota 4 Stanford 5 Kentucky 6 Florida 7 Texas 8 Washington 9 Oregon 10 Wisconsin RPI futures (through 11/22) looks like: 1. Kentucky (despite losing a match at home to Florida; their RPI has moved from #3 to #1; committee ranked them #5; just seems to me that committee won't drop them all way down to #5) 2. Penn State (no reason to believe they aren't still #1 in the committee's eyes at this moment) 3. Florida (won a match at Kentucky; their RPI has moved from #5 to #3; committee ranked them #6; just seems to me that committee won't drop them all way down to #5) 4. Stanford (their RPI has moved from #7 to #4; committee ranked them #4; seems logical to me that committee would bump them up to like #2) 5. Texas (their RPI has moved from #6 to #5; committee ranked them #7; seems logical that the committee will move them up, but tough to go higher than #5) 6. Nebraska (their RPI has moved from #4 to #6; committee ranked them #2; don't know what the committee will do but a drop seems logical as their schedule was more front-loaded than back-loaded; wouldn't imagine a drop to lower than #4) 7. Minnesota 8. Washington 9. USC 10. Utah So, as of Thanksgiving Day, I have (with very low confidence as it pertains to #3 - 6): 1. Penn State 2. Stanford 3. Florida 4. Kentucky 5. Nebraska 6. Texas Will try to re-do on Saturday night (for my own peace of mind) to see if things become more cut and dry.
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Post by Millennium on Nov 23, 2017 20:57:29 GMT -5
Cannot see two SEC teams getting top 4 seeds. In fact I'd bet on it and I'm not a betting man. The committee loves Nebraska, I don't see them dropping out of top 4 with their remaining schedule. Stanford is in, if they don't drop another. Penn State is definitely in, even if they drop one more. That leaves one spot, which I think goes to Florida. Sorry Kentucky, but I think Texas would get a crack at it before KY.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 23, 2017 21:07:11 GMT -5
bluepenquin can you predict Michigan's final rank? Maybe what bracket they will be in? Michigan will obviously not be hosting a subregional. Thee only site within 400 miles I believe is Kentucky, which there is a good chance that is going to happen. Right now I have Purdue playing Western Kentucky in Kentucky's place. Michigan could get paired with WKU in Lexington. Michigan can easily be placed in any regional because you don't know which of the 16 seeds they're going to get sent to. Right now I have Michigan playing Hawaii the first round in 8th-seeded Washington's subregional. I think Cal Poly/San Diego are going to Stanford/USC respectively, so I don't think the commiteee would send Michigan there (RPI a little too good). Hawaii could easily be shipped to USC or somewhere else. There's a good chance Hawaii gets shipped to Texas or Baylor. I agree with this. Michigan could end up just about anywhere. I am thinking that only one of Purdue, Michigan, Western Kentucky ends up in Kentucky this year. I think Michigan has played their way up to the point they will not be facing a team like WKU in the 1st round - my hunch.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 23, 2017 21:11:15 GMT -5
I think that USC became the 9th team to get a seed. That leaves 7 spots left and here is how I would rank the remaining contenders for those next 7 spots. Utah is pretty close to being a lock. Below is if their final game(s) result is this, then this is the % chance they will finish in the top 14 or 16 in RPI. Utah 1L - Avg RPI - 13.4, 14th or better (83%), 16th or better (98%) Baylor 1L - Avg RPI - 13.7, 14th pr better (68%), 16th or better (94%) Iowa State 1W - Avg RI - 12.6, 14th or better (93%), 16th or better (99%) Wisconsin 1L -Avg RPI - 16.3, 14th or better (22%), 16th or better (47%) Kansas 1W - Avg RPI - 13.5; 14th or better (68%), 16th or better (89%) Creighton BE Champs - Avg RPI - 10.5, Michigan State 2W - Avg RPI - 13.5, 14th or better (71%), 16th or better (91%) UCLA 1W - Avg RPI - 16.4, 14th or better (8%), 16th or better (54%), 18th or better (95%) Colorado 1W - Avg RPI - 16.2; 14th or better (16%), 16th or better (55%), 18th or better (92%) BYU 14th or better (24%), 16TH or better (61%) Wichita State 1W - Avg RPI - 16.0, 14th or better (21%), 16TH or better (57%) CAL POLY seeded before Ucla and Colorado. Today, yes. Although none of them is getting seeded as of today. If either UCLA or Colorado win their final match - they will have a much better chance of being seeded than Cal Poly.
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Post by badgerbreath on Nov 23, 2017 21:23:10 GMT -5
I think that USC became the 9th team to get a seed. That leaves 7 spots left and here is how I would rank the remaining contenders for those next 7 spots. Utah is pretty close to being a lock. Below is if their final game(s) result is this, then this is the % chance they will finish in the top 14 or 16 in RPI. Utah 1L - Avg RPI - 13.4, 14th or better (83%), 16th or better (98%) Baylor 1L - Avg RPI - 13.7, 14th pr better (68%), 16th or better (94%) Iowa State 1W - Avg RI - 12.6, 14th or better (93%), 16th or better (99%) Wisconsin 1L -Avg RPI - 16.3, 14th or better (22%), 16th or better (47%) Kansas 1W - Avg RPI - 13.5; 14th or better (68%), 16th or better (89%) Creighton BE Champs - Avg RPI - 10.5, Michigan State 2W - Avg RPI - 13.5, 14th or better (71%), 16th or better (91%) UCLA 1W - Avg RPI - 16.4, 14th or better (8%), 16th or better (54%), 18th or better (95%) Colorado 1W - Avg RPI - 16.2; 14th or better (16%), 16th or better (55%), 18th or better (92%) BYU 14th or better (24%), 16TH or better (61%) Wichita State 1W - Avg RPI - 16.0, 14th or better (21%), 16TH or better (57%) So why is Wisconsin so high up on this ranking given their projected RPI? Bonus points?
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