1. China, Puerto Rico, Germany, Cuba/Peru
2. Serbia, Turkey, Thailand, Kazakhstan
3. USA, DR, Bulgaria, Colombia
4. Russia, Argentina, Poland, Canada
5. Brazil, Italy/Korea, Cameroon, Azerbaijan/Mexico
6. Netherlands, Italy/Korea, Belgium, Azerbaijan/Mexico
My Calculations are very similar. Now that the WCH is concluded here is how I think it will all fall into place.
NOTE* The FIVB will surely change up the point system so some of these teams that are tied will be broken apart by who ranked higher at the WCH.
My scores apply the 2017 WGP scoring to the 2018 VNL and uses the 2014 scoring for this 2018 WCH. It's all I have to go on.
WorldRank/Country/Points/Pool/Confederation
6. Japan - 182 (HOSTS) - AVC
1. China - 322 - Pool A - AVC
2. Serbia - 318 - Pool B - CEV
3. U.S.A. - 272 - Pool C - NOR
4. Brazil - 200 - Pool D - CSV
5. Russia - 200 - Pool E - CEV
7. Nether. - 178 - Pool F - CEV
8. Italy - 152 - Pool F - CEV
9. Korea - 142 - Pool E - AVC
10. Argent. - 101 - Pool D - CSV
11. Dom. Rep. - 96 - Pool C - NOR
12. Turkey - 93 - Pool B - CEV
13. Puerto R. - 69 - Pool A - NOR
14. Germany - 66 - Pool A - CEV
15. Thailand - 56 - Pool B - AVC
16. Bulgaria - 55 - Pool C - CEV
17. Cameroon - 45 - Pool D - CAVB
18. Poland - 38 - Pool E - CEV
19. Belgium - 37 - Pool F - CEV
20. Azerbaijan - 33 Pool F - CEV
21. Mexico - 33 Pool E - NOR
22. Canada - 32 Pool D - NOR
23. Kenya - 32 Pool C - CAVB
24. Cuba - 30 Pool B - NOR
25. Peru - 29 Pool A - CSV
So if we break it down:
Bolded Teams will be pool winners. Underlined Teams will be Continental Champs and book the last 5 tickets to the games.
Hosts: Japan
Pool A: China will win. Period. This pool is cake.
Pool B: Serbia should win. Dark horse Turkey at full strength (Naz, Kubra, Erdem, Boz and a few other vets in with the youngsters) could upset Serbia who is solid but isn't perfect. With Thailand in this pool it should be really fun to watch.
Pool C: U.S.A. will win. We got lucky...probably have the second easiest pool after Pool A.
Pool D: Brazil will win. Canada, Argentina and Cameroon are all at roughly the same level so the pool should be interesting to watch.
Pool E: Russia should win. This depends on the health of their players and if Kosheleva and Goncharova are back and in good form. Korea with KYK and Poland with Smarzek are evenly matched. If Russia don't show up this pool gets interesting.
Pool F: This is a tragedy for CEV. All four teams are from the same confederation. And all of them are decent. Italy should win. Egonu is just monstrous. Netherlands will fight for the win. Having De Kruijf and Daalderop back will solidify their roster. I still don't know why Bongaerts got the nod over Stoltenborg at setter at the worlds. Azerbaijan will put up a good fight but Rahimova won't be enough to tip the scale just like we saw when they played all the big guns in the WCH.
Onward to Continental Qualifiers:
NORCECA:
11. Dom. Rep.
13. Puerto R.
20. Mexico
22. Canada
24. Cuba
Canada would be the ultimate upset here. They beat the Dominicans AT home in the pool stage of the Pan-Am Cup. Served them right off the court. And both teams were playing the rosters they took to the WCH. I however think the Dominicans after being absent in Rio will go the distance.
CSV:
10. Argentina
25. Peru
26. Colombia
Argentina are on the decline but usually deliver in Continental Qualifiers. Colombia's time is now! They played well in the Pan-Am Cup and it would really be neat to see them get a shot. They get my vote.
AVC:
9. Korea
15. Thailand
I am not as familiar with AVC teams other than the big guns so I didn't list any others. Thailand have been beating Korea as of late and that is WITH KYK who is starting to slow down as she probably will retire after this quad. I really hope Thailand gets the ticket. Would be so awesome!
CAVB:
17. Cameroon
22. Kenya
30. Algeria
34. Tunisia
Cameroon and Kenya both won matches at the WCH. Cameroon is sending a lot of it's players to Europe and beyond to play professionally. This will only strengthen their team. They get my vote.
CEV:
7. Netherlands
12. Turkey
14. Germany
16. Bulgaria
18. Poland
19. Belgium
20. Azerbaijan
Any of these too?
29. Hungary
31. Croatia
32. Czech Republic
Yikes. Aaaannnndd here is where the buck stops. I feel like Netherlands takes it and Turkey doesn't make it. I really wish Russia had a harder pool and got chopped so both NED and TUR got nods. Alas this is a beast of a pool all for 1 ticket. Still that puts CEV with 1/3 of the teams in the Olympics. Granting them one more slot at the expense of an AVC team (in a year that an AVC team is hosting the games) wasn't bound to happen. Thailand/Korea take that spot in place of Turkey/Poland/Germany/Azerbaijan. Alas I have come to love the Turkish team but they would have to pull out all of the stops in an all out brawl with the Dutch to get the ticket. Maybe in the future if this format is used again the second best teams in all 6 pools can play a little mini-tournament in two pools of 3 teams and then do a semi-final match-up with the winners both getting tickets REGARDLESS of geographic location? Just a thought.
After that we have the World Cup to slightly re-align the rankings before the games. As it stands (with my estimated rankings) the Tokyo pools would look something like this:
(Subject to change post WCup 2019).....(Also a crazy early prediction).....why not?
2020 Olympic Pools
Pool A (Easier)
6. Japan
3. U.S.A.
4. Brazil
8. Italy
11. Dom. Rep.
26. Colombia
Pool B (Always Tough)
1. China
2. Serbia
5. Russia
7. Netherlands
15. Thailand
17. Cameroon
Pool B though not as deadly as in Rio....is still the spot to be. All of those teams that make it to the quarterfinals will be battle hardened and ready.
I would almost rather USA fight to get back into the top two in the World and have to struggle in Pool B to face a far more relaxed opponent in the quarters than have it be the other way around and coast through Pool A (like Brazil did in Rio) only to be sent home early....again.....but...that might be the destiny of this quad.....I can only hope for the best.
I plan to be there in Tokyo so it will be exciting to see it all live...the Men's tournament as well :-)
Long. Ass. Post......thanks for staying with me.