trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 18, 2018 3:03:54 GMT -5
So what do we think of Pittsburgh ? If they end up undefeated would they get a top 4 seed? BYU is pretty much guaranteed a top 4 seed with one loss or running the table, right?
I think the 4 regionals come from four of these teams: Stanford Illinois BYU Wisconsin Nebraska Texas USC Penn State Minnesota Pittsburgh
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Post by mikegarrison on Sept 18, 2018 3:07:06 GMT -5
So what do we think of Pittsburgh ? If they end up undefeated would they get a top 4 seed? I can pretty much guarantee that any team that ends up undefeated with at least a few wins over other tournament teams would get a top 4 seed.
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trojansc
Legend
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Post by trojansc on Sept 18, 2018 3:13:30 GMT -5
The ACC is such an awkward conference. 15 teams, unbalanced schedules, tough to judge the level of play.. I know rampage always uses his famous formula and it usually has success (APAACC - Always pick Against ACC) ... but Pittsburgh does have wins over Cal Poly and Washington. The RPI numbers seem to like Washington, and I think Poly can roll the Big West again.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 18, 2018 3:40:07 GMT -5
Michigan has done a great job of gaming/lucking the RPI non conference SOS. They could literally go the entire season without picking up a single win against an RPI top 25 team and still end up with a top 10 RPI.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 18, 2018 3:42:43 GMT -5
Pitt and BYU are in control of their own destiny, don’t spoil it. The thought of two top seeds coming from the lower conferences in this era isn’t something many of us would have predicted a few years ago.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 18, 2018 3:45:57 GMT -5
So what do we think of Pittsburgh ? If they end up undefeated would they get a top 4 seed? BYU is pretty much guaranteed a top 4 seed with one loss or running the table, right? I think the 4 regionals come from four of these teams: Stanford Illinois BYU Wisconsin Nebraska Texas USC Penn State Minnesota Pittsburgh I think Penn State and Minnesota would have to do very well in Big 10 play to get to the top 4, IMO. Minnesota maybe, but I think PSU is still too young to do well in the Big 10 gauntlet. USC is in the same boat in the Pac 12. Shot themselves in the foot with those 3 losses in week 2.
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trojansc
Legend
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Post by trojansc on Sept 18, 2018 4:02:17 GMT -5
So what do we think of Pittsburgh ? If they end up undefeated would they get a top 4 seed? BYU is pretty much guaranteed a top 4 seed with one loss or running the table, right? I think the 4 regionals come from four of these teams: Stanford Illinois BYU Wisconsin Nebraska Texas USC Penn State Minnesota Pittsburgh I think Penn State and Minnesota would have to do very well in Big 10 play to get to the top 4, IMO. Minnesota maybe, but I think PSU is still too young to do well in the Big 10 gauntlet. USC is in the same boat in the Pac 12. Shot themselves in the foot with those 3 losses in week 2. I don't know about that. USC played a really tough schedule, right now they have 4 wins against the top 25 in RPI futures and that's just out of conference. All three of USC's losses are against teams in the top 25 of RPI Futures.
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Post by huskerjen on Sept 18, 2018 7:45:20 GMT -5
So what do we think of Pittsburgh ? If they end up undefeated would they get a top 4 seed? BYU is pretty much guaranteed a top 4 seed with one loss or running the table, right? I think the 4 regionals come from four of these teams: Stanford Illinois BYU Wisconsin Nebraska Texas USC Penn State Minnesota Pittsburgh Pittsburgh would definitely get a top 4 seed if undefeated. However, unlike BYU, I would consider them an underdog to make it out of their regional under the assumption that the Big Ten #2 or Texas gets sent there. Maybe that's perception/bias toward traditional power programs?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 18, 2018 8:30:13 GMT -5
Some numbers relating to Pittsburgh. They have a 4% chance of going undefeated. Below is the % chance of finishing in the top 4 in RPI with associated record:
30-0 (3.6%): T4 - 97% 29-1 (14.0%): T4 - 90% 28-2 (24.7%): T4 - 62% 27-3 (24.6%): T4 - 30% 26-4 (18.1%): T4 - 8% 25-5 (9.3%): T4 - 0%
I have mentioned this before - but look at the Pittsburgh schedule in terms of home and road. I have included the most recent Pablo ranking. I listed any team in the Top 90:
Home Matches: Washington - 15 Cal Poly - 17 Louisville - 21 Florida State - 36 Pepperdine - 45 Duke 48 Notre Dame - 49 Dayton - 67 Miami - 67 Kennesaw State - 71 High Point - 80 Syracuse - 85 College of Charleston - 87
Neutral Site Match: Oklahoma - 63
Road Match: Florida State - 36 Duke 48 Miami - 67 NC State - 48
I have asked before - will or should this matter? I kind of believe it should be taken into consideration. Although the lack of RPI T25 wins will probably be a bigger issue (maybe 3 T25 wins).
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 18, 2018 8:42:53 GMT -5
Here is a similar analysis for BYU. They are almost 3X more likely to go undefeated.
28-0 (10.4%): T4 - 100% 27-1 (28.8%): T4 - 92% 26-2 (26.8%): T4 - 71% 25-3 (20.0%): T4 - 39% 24-4 (9.0%): T4 - 12%
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 18, 2018 9:10:48 GMT -5
Michigan has done a great job of gaming/lucking the RPI non conference SOS. They could literally go the entire season without picking up a single win against an RPI top 25 team and still end up with a top 10 RPI. This is probably true. If Michigan goes 12-8 in conference (losing only to Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska 2X, Penn State 2X, and Wisconsin 2X) they would have an RPI Futures of #9. Add in Purdue and they go 11-9 and their RPI Futures is #11. Add in losses to Michigan State (2X) and they are 9-11 in conference - their RPI Futures is #15. This is why they currently have a 97% chance of finishing in the top 16 in RPI.
They have a chance of being a seed with their best wins being Iowa/Colorado State/Ohio State/Auburn/Notre Dame (2X), Indiana (2X). They are likely to have better wins - but this is possible.
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Post by Hawk Attack on Sept 18, 2018 9:14:41 GMT -5
So what do we think of Pittsburgh ? If they end up undefeated would they get a top 4 seed? BYU is pretty much guaranteed a top 4 seed with one loss or running the table, right? I think the 4 regionals come from four of these teams: Stanford Illinois BYU Wisconsin Nebraska Texas USC Penn State Minnesota Pittsburgh Pittsburgh would definitely get a top 4 seed if undefeated. However, unlike BYU, I would consider them an underdog to make it out of their regional under the assumption that the Big Ten #2 or Texas gets sent there. Maybe that's perception/bias toward traditional power programs? i.e. Missouri 2013
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Post by n00b on Sept 18, 2018 9:46:51 GMT -5
The ACC is such an awkward conference. 15 teams, unbalanced schedules, tough to judge the level of play.. I know rampage always uses his famous formula and it usually has success (APAACC - Always pick Against ACC) ... but Pittsburgh does have wins over Cal Poly and Washington. The RPI numbers seem to like Washington, and I think Poly can roll the Big West again. Dayton could end up as a top 25 win as well.
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Post by 642fiddi on Sept 18, 2018 9:57:01 GMT -5
The ACC is such an awkward conference. 15 teams, unbalanced schedules, tough to judge the level of play.. I know rampage always uses his famous formula and it usually has success (APAACC - Always pick Against ACC) ... but Pittsburgh does have wins over Cal Poly and Washington. The RPI numbers seem to like Washington, and I think Poly can roll the Big West again. Pittsburgh is legit but One victory (3-0)comes against a Washington team that was starting a freshman setter in her 1st couple of weeks of college volleyball and the Cal Poly win (3-1)came against a setter playing her 2nd college match.
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Post by mikegarrison on Sept 18, 2018 10:10:23 GMT -5
The ACC is such an awkward conference. 15 teams, unbalanced schedules, tough to judge the level of play.. I know rampage always uses his famous formula and it usually has success (APAACC - Always pick Against ACC) ... but Pittsburgh does have wins over Cal Poly and Washington. The RPI numbers seem to like Washington, and I think Poly can roll the Big West again. Pittsburgh is legit but One victory (3-0)comes against a Washington team that was starting a freshman setter in her 1st couple of weeks of college volleyball and the Cal Poly win (3-1)came against a setter playing her 2nd college match.
If they are "legit" then so what? Legit is legit. Why try to quibble?
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