D3 Bracketology ver 3 through 10/11 matches

[ned3vball]

As before, not the bracket but a region rank and pool A/B/C projection based on "quality" wins as the criteria. A "quality" win is a win over a top 100 Pablo team. QWI = Quality Win Index

More focus needs to be placed on beating good teams to get a pool C bid. While the NCAA specifically says in the criteria they do not consider Pablo or other "polls" any committee person who is not using it is ignoring proven data that can help them. there is no committee member who can speak to the details of 74 NCAA ranked teams.

The region rankings below account for all pool B(2) and 19 of 19 C teams. 

NOTE: this is NOT an NCAA criteria but a good way to point out worthy teams. I am going to start getting into some tangents like the opportunity to play quality opponents, and how you take advantage of the chances you have. Still a long way to go.

(QWI points formula: 4 points = win over Pablo 1 - 25, 3 pts = win over 26 - 50, 2 pts = win over 51 -75, 1 pt = win over 76-100, -1 pt = lose to >100)

The school with the most points in their league got the A bid.
You needed 10 points to make it. first 4 out: La Verne(9), Baldwin-Wallace(9), Chapman(9), (6 schools tied with 8)

The first actual rankings are out on October 17th (they are doing unpublished practice rankings this week)

School	Region rank	League	QWI points	Top 100 Matches	ranked wins	ranked losses	A/B/C	Pablo Rank
CE Region (6 bids)
Gustavus Adolphus	CE1	MINN	30	15	7	2	A	10
Washington University (MO)	CE2	UAA	25	13	6	4	C	6
St. Thomas-MN	CE3	MINN	15	14	4	6	C	23
St. Benedict	CE4	MINN	14	9	4	2	C	28
Bethel University	CE5	MINN	14	14	3	4	C	29
Augsburg	CE6	MINN	12	10	2	2	C	25
Wartburg	CE7	AMRIV	10	12	2	5	A	54
Coe	CE8	AMRIV	10	11	1	3	C	68
GL Region (4 bids)
Thomas More	GL1	ACAA	34	15	8	1	B	3
Wittenberg	GL2	NOCST	30	12	8	2	A	1
Calvin	GL3	MICH	26	9	7	0	A	2
Hope	GL4	MICH	20	14	5	3	C	16
Ohio Northern	GL5	OHIO	19	12	4	3	A	13
DePauw	GL6	NOCST	15	12	2	5	C	34
Otterbein	GL7	OHIO	13	9	1	3	C	32
Heidelberg	GL8	OHIO	10	11	2	5	C	37
MA Region (1 bid)
Juniata	MA1	LANDM	23	12	9	3	A	7
Carnegie Mellon	MA2	UAA	11	10	5	5	C	30
Christopher Newport	MA3	CAPITL	10	6	5	3	A	63
Muhlenberg	MA4	CENTN	6	9	3	5	A	81
Susquehanna	MA5	LANDM	4	9	4	7	X	66
Mary Washington	MA6	CAPITL	4	11	3	7	X	58
Swarthmore	MA7	CENTN	4	5	0	4	X	72
Cabrini	MA8	ATLEAS	3	7	3	6	B	87
Salisbury	MA9	CAPITL	3	6	2	3	X	102
Marymount University	MA10	ATLEAS	2	4	2	3	X	56
Franklin & Marshall	MA11	CENTN	2	6	2	2	X	81
School	Region rank	League	QWI points	Top 100 Matches	ranked wins	ranked losses	A/B/C	Pablo Rank
MW Region (4 bids)
Chicago	MW1	UAA	28	13	5	2	A	9
Illinois Wesleyan	MW2	ILLWIS	26	15	5	4	A	18
Wisconsin-Eau Claire	MW3	WISC	24	12	6	2	A	12
Wisconsin-Whitewater	MW4	WISC	24	16	6	4	C	19
Wisconsin-Stevens Point	MW5	WISC	17	17	5	7	C	47
Carthage	MW6	ILLWIS	15	16	2	7	C	26
Concordia University (WI)	MW7	NORTHN	11	7	3	2	A	38
Aurora	MW8	NORTHN	10	10	3	4	C	40
NE Region (0 bids)
Johnson and Wales	NE1	GRNORE	24	10	8	1	A	4
Springfield	NE2	NEWMAC	8	5	6	2	A	43
Wesleyan University (CT)	NE3	NESCAC	7	6	3	2	A	35
Bowdoin	NE4	NESCAC	6	4	2	1	X	31
Endicott	NE5	COMCST	5	8	4	6	A	83
Wellesley	NE6	NEWMAC	5	5	3	3	X	40
Wheaton College (MA)	NE7	NEWMAC	5	5	2	2	X	115
Amherst	NE8	NESCAC	5	5	1	3	X	54
Tufts	NE9	NESCAC	4	9	1	7	X	33
MIT	NE10	NEWMAC	3	4	4	2	X	39
Babson	NE11	NEWMAC	3	4	4	2	X	51
Williams	NE12	NESCAC	0	7	1	6	X	97
NY Region (0 bids)
Ithaca	NY1	LIBRTY	12	10	8	5	A	50
Stevens Institute of Technology	NY2	EMP8	4	6	5	4	A	62
Clarkson	NY3	LIBRTY	3	7	2	5	X	116
Stockton	NY4	NEWJER	1	3	2	3	A	102
New Paltz	NY5	SUNYAC	0	3	0	2	A	130
RIT	NY6	LIBRTY	-1	2	4	1	X	92
Morrisville State College	NY7	NOEASN	-1	4	0	4	A	192
Skidmore	NY8	LIBRTY	-2	5	1	4	X	145
Geneseo	NY9	SUNYAC	-2	4	0	4	X	117
Rochester	NY10	UAA	-2	4	2	4	X	117
Vassar	NY11	LIBRTY	-3	3	2	3	X	110
School	Region rank	League	QWI points	Top 100 Matches	ranked wins	ranked losses	A/B/C	Pablo Rank
SO Region (1 bid)
Berry	SO1	SOATHL	21	11	7	2	A	20
Emory	SO2	UAA	21	13	6	5	C	11
Hendrix	SO3	SOATHL	4	4	2	2	X	89
Birmingham-Southern	SO4	SOATHL	3	8	2	4	X	44
Washington and Lee	SO5	OLDDOM	0	7	2	2	A	124
Bridgewater College	SO6	OLDDOM	0	3	1	3	X	130
Sewanee	SO7	SOATHL	0	6	1	5	X	92
Virginia Wesleyan	SO8	OLDDOM	-1	4	1	3	X	181
WE Region (3 bids)
CMS	WE1	SOCAL	36	13	7	2	A	21
Trinity University (TX)	WE2	SOCOLL	24	14	5	4	A	8
Mary Hardin-Baylor	WE3	AMSW	18	9	4	0	A	15
Colorado College	WE4	SOCOLL	16	10	2	2	C	5
Texas-Dallas	WE5	AMSW	13	13	3	4	C	17
Cal Lutheran	WE6	SOCAL	12	12	3	7	C	48
Pacific Lutheran	WE7	NOWEST	10	8	0	1	A	14
La Verne	WE8	SOCAL	9	11	3	6	X	45

[bigfan]

You would think la Verne would get in.......................SCIAC produced the National Champion last season. SCIAC is a very good conference at the top and pretty bad at the bottom (redlands+caltech).

[bigfan]

Does Wellesley have a chance of getting in? I am not sure from what you have presented.

[ned3vball]

Oct 12, 2018 13:05:33 GMT -5 bigfan said:

Does Wellesley have a chance of getting in? I am not sure from what you have presented.

They do, but they have work left. Amherst, Bowdoin, MIT, and Babson on remaining schedule, then playoffs. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

Oh boy, my Otterbein Cardinals are moving on up. Here's hoping that they can knock Heidelberg off of this list tomorrow.

Who did the Berg replace, btw? Mt Union? Or were they on here last week?

[ned3vball]

Oct 12, 2018 14:00:25 GMT -5 Brutus Buckeye said:

Oh boy, my Otterbein Cardinals are moving on up. Here's hoping that they can knock Heidelberg off of this list tomorrow.

Who did the Berg replace, btw? Mt Union? Or were they on here last week?

They were listed last week. They picked up 4 points in ver 3 for beating now Pablo top 25 Baldwin-Wallace.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Heidelberg lost to Baldwin Wallace last week, actually. I know Otterbein was on there, they are the ones that beat BW last week. So I must have worded my question poorly. My apologies.

At any rate, the Otterbein @ Heidelberg match starts at 11 today.
live stream: boxcast.tv/view/volleyball-vs-otterbein-802388
Last year Otterbein's only OAC loss was at home against Heidelberg, a loss which they avenged in the Conference Tourney.

[jcvball22]

We all know some of those Pool C bids are going to end up going to some undeserving teams in New England and NY Regions. Happens every year. Leaving teams like LaVerne out, unfortunately.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Otterbein takes a five set slug match from Heidelberg on the road!

[Brutus Buckeye]

...and then they are promptly run off the court by Albion in straight sets in the second leg of the tri-match. 

Oh well, at least they won the Conference game. 

[ned3vball]

Oct 13, 2018 10:58:52 GMT -5 jcvball22 said:

We all know some of those Pool C bids are going to end up going to some undeserving teams in New England and NY Regions. Happens every year. Leaving teams like LaVerne out, unfortunately.

I am feeling a shutout for NY this year. After Ithaca There is not much going on. Next weekend is a big NESCAC vs NEWMAC head to head showdown. After that a few schools should be in position for consideration. Tufts went out and tried and failed, Wesleyan and Bowdoin have already clinched the #1 and #2 seeds in the tournament, whoever doesn't win is probably in line for a bid if they play well next weekend in non-conference play.

For the NEWMAC, MIT has played no one, going 1-3 against Pablo top 100.  One of those teams was Springfield who went to the Stockton tournament and lost to the 2 good teams they played, Stockton and Cabrini. Wellesley is again playing no one out of region. Babson has played no one D3 wise, and went 1-3 in a D2 tournament, what the heck was that about? 

The wildcard for the NEWMAC is the way coach Long from Springfield has ruled the committee with an iron fist (too dramatic?) the last 2 years and brought home the bids for the NEWMAC. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

Oct 13, 2018 13:58:13 GMT -5 Brutus Buckeye said:

...and then they are promptly run off the court by Albion in straight sets in the second leg of the tri-match. 

Oh well, at least they won the Conference game. 

And of course Heidelberg beats Albion in straight sets, making it one of those Rock Paper Scissors tri-matches whereby all three teams go 1-1 against each other. 

Nevertheless, my Otterbein Cardinals won the one that matters most. 

[tmb]

Oct 12, 2018 13:59:34 GMT -5 ned3vball said:

Oct 12, 2018 13:05:33 GMT -5 bigfan said:

Does Wellesley have a chance of getting in? I am not sure from what you have presented.

They do, but they have work left. Amherst, Bowdoin, MIT, and Babson on remaining schedule, then playoffs. 

Does this grid include the Wellesley loss to Wheaton from the "wet floor" suspension?

[bigfan]

Oct 13, 2018 10:58:52 GMT -5 jcvball22 said:

We all know some of those Pool C bids are going to end up going to some undeserving teams in New England and NY Regions. Happens every year. Leaving teams like LaVerne out, unfortunately.

Foeget about la Verne......................what about Chapman?

[ned3vball]

Oct 13, 2018 18:37:25 GMT -5 tmb said:

Oct 12, 2018 13:59:34 GMT -5 ned3vball said:

They do, but they have work left. Amherst, Bowdoin, MIT, and Babson on remaining schedule, then playoffs. 

Does this grid include the Wellesley loss to Wheaton from the "wet floor" suspension?

Yes, that's a +3 for Wheaton (Pablo 115) and -1 for Wellesley (Pablo 40)