|
Post by After Dawn on Dec 16, 2018 20:36:10 GMT -5
if this is any indicator of how the bigwest will do next year this is would be amazing! 6 teams in the top 65 NICE I wouldn't get to excited yet. I don't think it's that different from the 2018 season. And, as ay2013 notes, it's not great at predicting how teams will fare in competition. TBF, I don't think it was designed to do that. UCSB was 44th with 23 points last year. This year, they're 45th with 26, so maybe a slight improvement. Hawaii was in a 3-way tie for 46th with 21 points last year. This year, they're 62nd with 15.5 so they've dropped. (This does ignore Westerberg and Hellvig for Hawaii but it also ignore other foreign recruits for other teams who may also have good recruits coming in.) Cal Poly was 51st with 20 points. (You can see how crowded it gets at this level when a difference of one point drops you that many places.) This year they're 49th with 22.5 so slightly better. The Black Ink score underrated them compared to how they were rated in RPI and in the AVCA and VT polls last season. It will be interesting to see if the same thing happens in 2019. I think it only went to 60 last season. UC-Irvine and Long Beach State were below 60 in both seasons. Well not one of these two teams had players on an AA list so this basically says that UCSB has the most talent coming into next year, yet they continue to underachieve. Coach should have gotten fired long time ago.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,373
|
Post by bluepenquin on Dec 16, 2018 20:48:52 GMT -5
That is kind of why I like the 2nd list of the core 8 - so if you have a high senior ace that got injured or didn't pan out, then their score isn't included. TCU is only #21 on that list compared to #16 for Washington. Bajema and McCall have the same point value of 8.5 (most for their team). Those top 10 teams usually have at least a couple players with more than 10 points. TCU has Buckingham (top 20 SA) who cannot get healthy. They also have a couple of high Freshman recruits that are likely to be blocked from starting their 1st year. That said - there should be no mistaking the fact that TCU is putting together some really good talent. They have 3 more years of McCall and Nails or Adams as Top 20 Freshman as outside hitters. Unlike some other teams - they are accumulating the much tougher OH recruits. While a team like LSU is much more difficult to see their path. Their 3 big time players are natural MB - so unless on of them (Bannister) can transition to the pin, they are going to have some waste. And then some programs do a much better job of developing players that don't necessarily score high on HS recruit lists. Hawaii comes to mind - along with several other teams in the West and a team like Pittsburgh this past year. Well I get TCU is loading up, I’m just questioning the methodology here. Just seems like programs can get essentially unearned points applied to players that have 1- never played in college and still be the relative same value as a proven producer. All conference also negatively impacts middle pac and big teams. Does TCU get 3 players all conference in the pac 12? Oh heck no. I’m just saying that there is something very flawed when a team that was top 25, AVCA, top 25 RPI, top 25 Pablo, sweet 16, loses nobody, gets ranked below a team that didn’t even make the tournament. Those TCU freshmen are fine (and I DO really like Nalls), but it’s not like they have Megan Hodge coming in. It’s a very flawed methodology, whatever it is, especially considering for Washington, their returning opposite, setter, and 3 middles were top 30 recruits. This ranking is an objective rating of something that is somewhere between very telling to totally meaningless. Feel free to adjust or question any individual team - yeah, but this player was foreign and is badly being undervalued, this player hasn't played much because she is constantly injured, etc... In other words - it isn't an end, it isn't even my opinion of how I would rank teams - it is just something that I can objectively get a very quick number to evaluate many roster moving parts. Conference points is a very small factor - 1 point for 1st team and 1/2 point if 2nd team or honorable mention. Washington and TCU each got 1.5 points. I agree that it isn't fair for PAC/B1G teams relative to lessor conferences - but then All-American points aren't exactly 'fair'. As it relates to Washington - this 'system' heavily rewards two things; 1) T5/T10 Senior Aces and 2) All-Americans. Washington is loaded with many senior aces - but not much in superstar recruits when compared to the top programs right now. At this point - they only have Bejema as a 3rd team AA. Black Ink is showing them as a good team that is very deep - a T16 type team along with other teams (Purdue, Baylor, Illinois, Florida) that is lacking enough star power that is usually needed to be a top tier contender. Once/if a couple of these T40 Senior Ace players develop into All-American players, then Washington will have something more special. Without knowing the details of the Washington team - their Black Ink tells me a story that matches my opinion (and that isn't the case for all the teams).
|
|
|
Post by ay2013 on Dec 16, 2018 21:43:27 GMT -5
Well I get TCU is loading up, I’m just questioning the methodology here. Just seems like programs can get essentially unearned points applied to players that have 1- never played in college and still be the relative same value as a proven producer. All conference also negatively impacts middle pac and big teams. Does TCU get 3 players all conference in the pac 12? Oh heck no. I’m just saying that there is something very flawed when a team that was top 25, AVCA, top 25 RPI, top 25 Pablo, sweet 16, loses nobody, gets ranked below a team that didn’t even make the tournament. Those TCU freshmen are fine (and I DO really like Nalls), but it’s not like they have Megan Hodge coming in. It’s a very flawed methodology, whatever it is, especially considering for Washington, their returning opposite, setter, and 3 middles were top 30 recruits. This ranking is an objective rating of something that is somewhere between very telling to totally meaningless. Feel free to adjust or question any individual team - yeah, but this player was foreign and is badly being undervalued, this player hasn't played much because she is constantly injured, etc... In other words - it isn't an end, it isn't even my opinion of how I would rank teams - it is just something that I can objectively get a very quick number to evaluate many roster moving parts. Conference points is a very small factor - 1 point for 1st team and 1/2 point if 2nd team or honorable mention. Washington and TCU each got 1.5 points. I agree that it isn't fair for PAC/B1G teams relative to lessor conferences - but then All-American points aren't exactly 'fair'. As it relates to Washington - this 'system' heavily rewards two things; 1) T5/T10 Senior Aces and 2) All-Americans. Washington is loaded with many senior aces - but not much in superstar recruits when compared to the top programs right now. At this point - they only have Bejema as a 3rd team AA. Black Ink is showing them as a good team that is very deep - a T16 type team along with other teams (Purdue, Baylor, Illinois, Florida) that is lacking enough star power that is usually needed to be a top tier contender. Once/if a couple of these T40 Senior Ace players develop into All-American players, then Washington will have something more special. Without knowing the details of the Washington team - their Black Ink tells me a story that matches my opinion (and that isn't the case for all the teams). Well, I'm not saying Washington has the start power to match a Stanford or Texas, I suppose my inquiry isn't that Washington is #16, but rather where Washington is in relation to teams like TCU, UCLA, BYU, and Purdue going into next year.
|
|
|
Post by dman on Dec 16, 2018 21:54:08 GMT -5
Bannister has been playing opposite for most of her time at LSU. She spent some time at OH this year but hasn't played middle at all. I had heard she was playing some OH this year - but given the results from LSU I was assuming that this may have not been successful? RS I can see - by 'natural MB' I was suggesting that MB was the projected recruiting position out of HS. She did play some outside at beginning and end of season. You are correct that she is a natural middle as that was where she played in her club seasons. Guessing she will be trained at the OH slot this Spring with Armer/Foreman as the middles.
|
|
|
Post by buzinga7 on Dec 23, 2018 8:21:26 GMT -5
Looking at where some transfers would have the biggest impact. Minnesota would appear to need a setter and with Kylie Miller and Mica Allison both available, I have to think Minnesota gets one of these. Either would move Minnesota up 6.5 points in their core starter group and put them as the #3 team. Miller is such the obvious choice given that she has just one year of eligibility - which better fits Minnesota's pipeline. Kentucky could use a MB. Freshman Isabella Bell may be the likely MB - or they could pick up Leah Meyer and add experience and move them up in their BIS. USC - Black Ink Score is badly missing on setter Lazaro since she is foreign and gets no points from senior aces. BYU - I have no idea who is their setter for this coming season? The addition of Allison or Miller could have a significant impact on their team. I doubt it happens - but from the outside Allison would make a lot of sense for both the player and school. Baylor - Here is another place where Allison would make sense depending on how Baylor feels about Lockin. Baylor badly needs a RS. This team has superstars Pressley and Fanning and incoming Freshman Kara McGhee (the highest rated Baylor recruit). Gia Milano probably goes back to OH where she plays better than RS. They need someone for the RS. Illinois - I forgot they have Diana Brown. Assuming they still like her - I don't see any reason for bringing in a transfer setter. The issue with Illinois is going to be MB where they don't appear to have what they need. Bluepenguin you must be a visionary. Looks like Kentucky landed MB Meyer as 2019 transfer.
|
|
|
Post by Wiswell on Dec 23, 2018 9:04:04 GMT -5
And Miller to Minnesota.
|
|
|
Post by trainermch on Dec 24, 2018 9:17:17 GMT -5
It appears Stanford is supposed to be pretty good in 2019. hmmmm. Guess we will have to wait and see.
|
|
|
Post by hammer on Dec 24, 2018 19:37:07 GMT -5
All indications point towards Kylie Miller enrolling at Minnesota in January. She is supposedly sick of the California weather and is looking forward to ice fishing in Minnesota. It's obvious ... so many more things you can do in Minnesota in the middle of January ...
|
|
|
Post by ilalum92 on Dec 24, 2018 22:35:08 GMT -5
So ILLINOIS with Brown and now Allison must jump up dramatically??
|
|
|
Post by After Dawn on Dec 25, 2018 3:04:05 GMT -5
So ILLINOIS with Brown and now Allison must jump up dramatically?? they shouldn't even at 16 that is a little generous given how much they have lost
|
|
|
Post by badgerbill on Dec 25, 2018 9:49:47 GMT -5
If haggerty gets back to about 90% and Loberg can work on her shot-making, a number two ranking will be justifiable. I just hope we stay healthy during the off-season
|
|
|
Post by ilalum92 on Dec 25, 2018 15:55:47 GMT -5
So ILLINOIS with Brown and now Allison must jump up dramatically?? they shouldn't even at 16 that is a little generous given how much they have lost We retain 4 of 5 attackers. Setting was an issue with a red shirt frosh taking over but now with Mica coming in and training for spring and summer, your statement makes no sense
|
|
|
Post by tallguy86 on Dec 25, 2018 17:26:05 GMT -5
they shouldn't even at 16 that is a little generous given how much they have lost We retain 4 of 5 attackers. Setting was an issue with a red shirt frosh taking over but now with Mica coming in and training for spring and summer, your statement makes no sense No one can replace JP.
|
|
|
Post by After Dawn on Dec 25, 2018 18:16:53 GMT -5
they shouldn't even at 16 that is a little generous given how much they have lost We retain 4 of 5 attackers. Setting was an issue with a red shirt frosh taking over but now with Mica coming in and training for spring and summer, your statement makes no sense mb i thought prince was a senior
|
|
|
Post by hammer on Dec 25, 2018 19:14:17 GMT -5
BTW, is Black Ink related to Pablo?
|
|