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Post by bigjohn043 on Feb 2, 2019 17:37:56 GMT -5
I think your math is wrong here. 5 teams going undefeated / 38 season means that 13% of the time the title winner is going undefeated.
Is Stanford going to win the title? They probably aren't even money but given that they were pretty clearly the best team this season and that they lost very little while getting the #1 recruiting class the odds are probably in the 30ish% range.
If they win it all will they be undefeated? History says they have a 13% change. But it is probably higher than that. This is the type of team that could go undefeated if only because they only lost one match last year and only went to 5 two other times.
I would put it overall at 10-15%ish range.
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Post by WahineFan44 on Feb 2, 2019 18:46:43 GMT -5
I think your math is wrong here. 5 teams going undefeated / 38 season means that 13% of the time the title winner is going undefeated. Is Stanford going to win the title? They probably aren't even money but given that they were pretty clearly the best team this season and that they lost very little while getting the #1 recruiting class the odds are probably in the 30ish% range. If they win it all will they be undefeated? History says they have a 13% change. But it is probably higher than that. This is the type of team that could go undefeated if only because they only lost one match last year and only went to 5 two other times. I would put it overall at 10-15%ish range. They are not dividing it by season. They are dividing it up by number of d1 teams participating per season, which IMO is more accurate than just dividing it up per season.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2019 19:10:08 GMT -5
I think your math is wrong here. 5 teams going undefeated / 38 season means that 13% of the time the title winner is going undefeated. Is Stanford going to win the title? They probably aren't even money but given that they were pretty clearly the best team this season and that they lost very little while getting the #1 recruiting class the odds are probably in the 30ish% range. If they win it all will they be undefeated? History says they have a 13% change. But it is probably higher than that. This is the type of team that could go undefeated if only because they only lost one match last year and only went to 5 two other times. I would put it overall at 10-15%ish range. Having gambled in casinos (and having won; plus, then kept playing until I hit my limit +/-) I would NEVER wager on a 13%-odds bet. Nor "at a 10-15%ish range". TRULY!
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Post by huskerjen on Feb 3, 2019 12:15:58 GMT -5
I think your math is wrong here. 5 teams going undefeated / 38 season means that 13% of the time the title winner is going undefeated. Is Stanford going to win the title? They probably aren't even money but given that they were pretty clearly the best team this season and that they lost very little while getting the #1 recruiting class the odds are probably in the 30ish% range. If they win it all will they be undefeated? History says they have a 13% change. But it is probably higher than that. This is the type of team that could go undefeated if only because they only lost one match last year and only went to 5 two other times. I would put it overall at 10-15%ish range. Having gambled in casinos (and having won; plus, then kept playing until I hit my limit +/-) I would NEVER wager on a 13%-odds bet. Nor "at a 10-15%ish range". TRULY! Never? You need to learn about expected value/ROI. You wouldn't ever wager on 13% probability of winning if you were getting better than 7.7/1 odds + vig? That might make sense if you can only afford to place one bet ever, but otherwise price always matters, not just the win probability.
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Post by stevehorn on Feb 3, 2019 12:51:40 GMT -5
From an odds standpoint, I would vote no. For starters, every team has a few games where they play below their normal capability. To go undefeated, you hope that few of those games are against top opponents and you are able to grind through those games and come out with wins.
Also you never know how well the team will gel. Coaches will tell you that each team is different even if most of the roster remains the same. Also the common problem for defending champions to not fall victim to some level of satisfaction.
Also likely need to be fortunate with injuries. Even if its not a season-ending injury to a key player or a key player(s) missing several games, two or three players in a game at less than 100% might hamper the overall performance in the game.
Even when you have the talent to win every game, it usually requires a good break or two during the season to actually accomplish it which is why there are so few undefeated teams historically.
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Post by Cruz'n on Feb 3, 2019 17:10:05 GMT -5
I think they will be undefeated National Champs. Why Not. They were 1 set away from doing it last year. I'm not buying the pressure of being undefeated, players choose Stanford for the pressure and expectations. Veteran Senior class who has literally been through it all..I actually think they will have fun and be loose because of their past experiences together. See you in Pittsburgh. Although it is possible, Stanford going undefeated is unlikely - and it has nothing to do with pressure. Stanford could have just as easily lost to Colorado or Nebraska just as they narrowly lost to BYU. With a little random luck, they could have lost at home against Minnesota and Oregon or Penn State in the tournament. Besides being great, Stanford will need some good fortune and luck to go undefeated.
Great teams have a way of creating their own good "luck."
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2019 19:02:26 GMT -5
Great teams have a way of creating their own good "luck." 2014? 2015? 2017? Uhhhm, '15 Was Anything BUT a 'great team'! (SO "great", Dunning and his wife decided to give his retirement plans - which Were Quite imminent - another year to occur)
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Post by After Dawn on Feb 4, 2019 1:38:30 GMT -5
if stanford loses more than 5 sets the entire year, their coach should get the boot
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dfw
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Post by dfw on Feb 4, 2019 11:26:17 GMT -5
I think they will be undefeated National Champs. Why Not. They were 1 set away from doing it last year. I'm not buying the pressure of being undefeated, players choose Stanford for the pressure and expectations. Veteran Senior class who has literally been through it all..I actually think they will have fun and be loose because of their past experiences together. See you in Pittsburgh. Should I make my reservations now? What hotels do you recommend downtown? If you are smart, yes. You may not think they'll go undefeated, but the Final Four is a lock. What else does this team have to prove to people who think that's an absurd statement? They've been to it 3 straight years. They're going to host a regional final game at home. I wouldn't bet against them. This is about experience and mental toughness. Just ask Minnesota.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Feb 4, 2019 12:31:49 GMT -5
I think your math is wrong here. 5 teams going undefeated / 38 season means that 13% of the time the title winner is going undefeated. Is Stanford going to win the title? They probably aren't even money but given that they were pretty clearly the best team this season and that they lost very little while getting the #1 recruiting class the odds are probably in the 30ish% range. If they win it all will they be undefeated? History says they have a 13% change. But it is probably higher than that. This is the type of team that could go undefeated if only because they only lost one match last year and only went to 5 two other times. I would put it overall at 10-15%ish range. Having gambled in casinos (and having won; plus, then kept playing until I hit my limit +/-) I would NEVER wager on a 13%-odds bet. Nor "at a 10-15%ish range". TRULY! Not sure exactly what you are saying here. Are you saying you just don't make long odds bets? That is fine but not really the point. Do you disagree with my estimate of the chances and what the odds might be? If so, where do you think I went wrong and what do you think are the odds?
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Post by huskerjen on Feb 4, 2019 13:24:54 GMT -5
Never? You need to learn about expected value/ROI. You wouldn't ever wager on 13% probability of winning if you were getting better than 7.7/1 odds + vig? That might make sense if you can only afford to place one bet ever, but otherwise price always matters, not just the win probability. Thanks for (projected, nonsensical, irrelevant -- plus psychotic) sharing! -- Gaahhh, only a depraved, wannabe-gambler loser could say this: yet, you are "pompous c**t". Understanding expected value doesn't require being a depraved wannabe-gambler. Do you invest? Knowing price, value, and expected return is common knowledge and necessary for making informed decisions.
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Post by stanfordvb on Feb 4, 2019 14:05:32 GMT -5
I think Minnesota Wisconsin and Stanford are the top 3 teams next year. Texas could be great as well. I’d otn see Nebraska or penn state pushing for a title
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Post by hammer on Feb 4, 2019 14:14:36 GMT -5
I think Minnesota Wisconsin and Stanford are the top 3 teams next year. Texas could be great as well. I’d otn see Nebraska or penn state pushing for a title I saw three really solid recruits for RED in the UA match ... three potential starters (or kids who should get lots of playing time) -- Kubik, Zuhn, and Knuckles. That's why I'm throwing Corn into the mix.
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