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Post by trollhunter on Feb 15, 2019 18:34:26 GMT -5
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 15, 2019 18:45:05 GMT -5
FIU is ranked 2 spots better in AVCA versus DiG
Stetson is ranked 2 spots worse in AVCA
Grand Canyon is ranked 2 spots better in AVCA
I did not note differences of 1 spot in the polls.
The polls are nearly identical, which is normal for such a small number of teams, I guess.
Will work on over-rated and under-rated lists this weekend.
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Post by johnbar on Feb 15, 2019 23:46:50 GMT -5
I'm repeating myself, but Stanford is a big question mark. No Plummer, and five freshmen on a roster of 13. Bowen is the only senior. One junior (Mohl) only played exhibitions last year, and another (Richardson) did not play at all. So it is a very young squad.
Added: Hentz and Anderson are the experienced juniors, and the sophomores, Villapando and Smith, played consistently last year.
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Post by bayarea on Feb 16, 2019 3:41:14 GMT -5
I'm repeating myself, but Stanford is a big question mark. No Plummer, and five freshmen on a roster of 13. Bowen is the only senior. One junior (Mohl) only played exhibitions last year, and another (Richardson) did not play at all. So it is a very young squad. Added: Hentz and Anderson are the experienced juniors, and the sophomores, Villapando and Smith, played consistently last year. FWIW, Richardson played 12 official matches and 8 exhibitions with partner Blake Sharp last season, according to the statistics. And 2 regular matches with Raquel. |
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Post by johnbar on Feb 16, 2019 12:37:27 GMT -5
I'm repeating myself, but Stanford is a big question mark. No Plummer, and five freshmen on a roster of 13. Bowen is the only senior. One junior (Mohl) only played exhibitions last year, and another (Richardson) did not play at all. So it is a very young squad. Added: Hentz and Anderson are the experienced juniors, and the sophomores, Villapando and Smith, played consistently last year. FWIW, Richardson played 12 official matches and 8 exhibitions with partner Blake Sharp last season, according to the statistics. And 2 regular matches with Raquel. You are quite right. I was sloppy in my research. I just looked at Richardson's bio, which didn't list anything for her sophomore year. I should have checked the stats, as you did. |
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 17, 2019 21:50:52 GMT -5
My OVER/UNDER ranked lists follow. This is just my humble opinion based on last season, graduation, schedule, etc. I have not seen any teams play this spring. If anyone has news on impact recruits/transfers, please share.
OVER-RANKED
#5/#6 Cal Poly. Where did this come from, have they ever been ranked this high? They lose 3 of top 6 players, and play a tougher schedule. Also, someone needs to teach Todd how to schedule for NCAA. Scheduling many teams with historic bad records will likely destroy their SOS/RPI.
#10/#12 Florida International. While usually a contender, they lose half their starters and play a tougher schedule (but missing SCarolina). I don't see them in the mix for a regional bid or at-large.
#11/#10 Stanford. Again, not sure where this ranking comes from. They should do ok, even without Plummer, but have no shot at a NCAA bid. Maybe in the #16-#20 if they have a good season.
#13/#14 Georgia State. Graduated 3 of top 6 players without adding much. Rebuilding year with a soft schedule. Not in contention.
#14/#13 Arizona. They lost most of their good players. Have a weak schedule so their record may be ok, but will not compete with good teams.
UNDER-RANKED
#15/16 LMU. They lost some talent but seem to have replaced it. Solid schedule and good coaching. Don't expect a huge move, but upwards over a few teams.
#16/#18 Grand Canyon. Play a weird schedule, but if they peak late they could earn an at-large bid. Capable of upsets and playing top teams close.
#17/#15 Stetson - They finally upgraded their schedule and return a veteran squad (everyone). If they can't earn a NCAA bid this year, it won't happen again until conference auto-bids are implemented.
#19/#20 TCU - Hard to justify a team that was 10-22 at #20, but I predict they will finish higher and maybe contend for East #3 bid. They return their top players, playing an appropriate schedule, added depth and more experienced. I overlooked them a couple years ago, it will not happen again.
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Post by badbunny on Feb 17, 2019 22:51:43 GMT -5
trollhunter ... good initial assessment of the preseason rankings. Going to be an interesting season!
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Post by travismewhirter on Feb 18, 2019 15:26:12 GMT -5
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 18, 2019 15:54:57 GMT -5
Travis, Thanks for sharing! Your team profiles are great and I agree about Cal moving up slightly into contention possibly. One minor point is that 3 East region teams (at least) will make the NCAA tournament and 5 West region teams (at most). So if you are basing the top 8 on NCAA bids (which I concur) it is likely that South Carolina or Stetson will move up. Maybe do a top 10 weekly to include the bubble team from each region? |
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Post by travismewhirter on Feb 18, 2019 18:19:18 GMT -5
Good thoughts there...I think I'll still probably do a top 8 but in the "First Four Out" asterisk which team would slip in based on the regions
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Post by wang pu on Feb 19, 2019 10:55:47 GMT -5
travismewhirter you mention this about Florida State "There are only two programs in the country that have competed in every AVCA and NCAA National Tournament: Pepperdine, and Florida State.", but then this about Hawaii, "a coaching staff that has yet to miss an AVCA or NCAA playoff." Curious, is there a difference between competing in vs yet to miss?
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Post by trollhunter on Feb 19, 2019 12:50:55 GMT -5
travismewhirter you mention this about Florida State "There are only two programs in the country that have competed in every AVCA and NCAA National Tournament: Pepperdine, and Florida State.", but then this about Hawaii, "a coaching staff that has yet to miss an AVCA or NCAA playoff." Curious, is there a difference between competing in vs yet to miss? I think the reference is that Hall has made playoffs every year. Before Hall's time, Hawaii under Wong did not make the AVCA team tournament the first couple years, just the AVCA pairs event with their top flight. |
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Post by wang pu on Feb 19, 2019 13:11:37 GMT -5
travismewhirter you mention this about Florida State "There are only two programs in the country that have competed in every AVCA and NCAA National Tournament: Pepperdine, and Florida State.", but then this about Hawaii, "a coaching staff that has yet to miss an AVCA or NCAA playoff." Curious, is there a difference between competing in vs yet to miss? I think the reference is that Hall has made playoffs every year. Before Hall's time, Hawaii under Wong did not make the AVCA team tournament the first couple years, just the AVCA pairs event with their top flight. Got it! I forgot that Hall was not the original coach. |
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Post by travismewhirter on Feb 19, 2019 16:02:08 GMT -5
405lax is on the ball there
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Post by wonderwarthog79 on Feb 19, 2019 16:48:17 GMT -5
I'm repeating myself, but Stanford is a big question mark. No Plummer, and five freshmen on a roster of 13. Bowen is the only senior. One junior (Mohl) only played exhibitions last year, and another (Richardson) did not play at all. So it is a very young squad. Added: Hentz and Anderson are the experienced juniors, and the sophomores, Villapando and Smith, played consistently last year. I mostly agree with Trollhunter. (Damn, I hate that!) Stanford probably is more like 16-20, meaning not worth mentioning. They have a couple of interesting frosh, however. Charlie (something) looks like a keeper. |
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