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Post by ned3vball on Mar 30, 2019 8:43:30 GMT -5
Here's a Saturday morning, off season one. I was looking at some 2018 numbers and noticed this. The NESCAC is an 11 team league, which means you need to play 55 matches to do the full round robin. They came within ONE match of a perfect result where no team lost to a team that finished lower in the standings. Colby beat Trinity to mess it up. Feels like, if it had happened, it would have been a pretty rare occurrence.
What is the "upset" rate (favorite loses) in sports in general, or volleyball in a particular? I realize after the fact it is easier to say who the favorite was, but still.
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Post by BitterOldDude on Mar 30, 2019 8:56:27 GMT -5
Back last century, when I was a D-I coach, I asked Rich Kern the same question. I was of the opinion that volleyball was the toughest sport to get an upset win; that is, a lower seed beating a higher seed. Soccer is easy. Underdog scores early, and plays defense for the rest of the match. The 3-point shot equalized basketball to a degree. Volleyball is different. Five sets is a long time. You might surprise somebody early, but you have to maintain it through the rest of the match.
Rick Kern explained it to me by looking at rankings. He said that if two teams were separated by more than 20 RPI positions, there was virtually no chance for an upset statistically. It DOES happen, but the probability is that slim.
For whatever it's worth, I've lost several of those matches, but I don't think I ever won any.
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Post by Not Me on Mar 30, 2019 10:57:43 GMT -5
Happens in my high school league with 12 teams fairly common
Happened this past year.
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Post by Not Me on Apr 1, 2019 8:57:07 GMT -5
Oh, and if you want consistent chalk, look at the ncaa women’s basketball bracket
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Post by n00b on Apr 1, 2019 10:07:49 GMT -5
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