|
Post by DiggUH on Oct 24, 2019 22:32:48 GMT -5
Congrats to the Gauchos. Looks like Lindsey's made a full recovery from whatever sidelined her earlier. Can't wait for the rematch in Honolulu next week. Should be a good one.
|
|
|
Post by Courtside5 on Oct 24, 2019 23:19:14 GMT -5
Congrats to the Gauchos. Looks like Lindsey's made a full recovery from whatever sidelined her earlier. Can't wait for the rematch in Honolulu next week. Should be a good one. I pray to the volleyball gods that JR will be back for that match! If not well ............
|
|
|
Post by 808empath on Oct 25, 2019 2:23:10 GMT -5
Congrats to the Gauchos. Looks like Lindsey's made a full recovery from whatever sidelined her earlier. Can't wait for the rematch in Honolulu next week. Should be a good one. I pray to the volleyball gods that JR will be back for that match! If not well ............ Weren't you the one that said she was out for the rest of the season? (I'm pretty sure you were trolling people 😅)
|
|
|
Post by Courtside5 on Oct 25, 2019 2:33:16 GMT -5
I pray to the volleyball gods that JR will be back for that match! If not well ............ Weren't you the one that said she was out for the rest of the season? (I'm pretty sure you were trolling people 😅) Lol no I just said it to provoke Kokyu for the troll thread he made. Tit for tat.
|
|
|
Post by Riviera Minestrone on Oct 25, 2019 2:38:36 GMT -5
I feel that the BW race will end up 1A/1B between UH & UCSB (which makes their match at the SSC quite the ticket!). That being said, will there be 1, 2, or 3 teams in the postseason?
|
|
|
Post by DiggUH on Oct 25, 2019 3:17:54 GMT -5
Weren't you the one that said she was out for the rest of the season? (I'm pretty sure you were trolling people 😅) Lol no I just said it to provoke Kokyu for the troll thread he made. Tit for tat. I think most people probably figured that it was something like that otherwise that thread would have exploded. Lol.
|
|
|
Post by GauchoFreg on Oct 25, 2019 10:02:11 GMT -5
I feel that the BW race will end up 1A/1B between UH & UCSB (which makes their match at the SSC quite the ticket!). That being said, will there be 1, 2, or 3 teams in the postseason? Handing Davis their first home loss of the season is a good sign that UCSB can continue their winning ways on the road but that becomes a much bigger task next weekend and when they head up to Poly later. Looking at the remaining schedules for the top 3: Hawaii (6-2) @ CSF @ UCI vs UCSB vs CP @ Davis @ UCR vs CSUN vs LB UCSB (7-1)@ UCR vs LB @ UH @ CP @ LB @ CSUN vs CSF vs UCI CP (7-1)@ Davis vs CSUN @ UH vs UCSB @ CSUN @ LB vs UCI vs CSF UCSB has the toughest stretch with roadies vs both CP and Hawaii plus CSUN who just missed beating the Gauchos in SB. The Gauchos have proven so far that they can beat the teams they're supposed to and I predict that they'll lose two of these three games mentioned above so will likely end up 13-3. UH has the easiest remaining schedule hosting both SB & CP however they have really struggled with the lower tier BW teams, going 5 games with CSF, UCI & Davis, all at home. Now they need to travel to all of these schools with Davis having only one loss at home so far this year. I think UH will lose at least two more games but acknowledge they are the most variable team in the conference, just don't know what you'll get. Projection of 12-4 CP is the best situated to take the conference. IF they can beat Davis this weekend and if they can beat UCSB @ home, they should have no problem with the rest of the BW teams outside of a projected loss at Hawaii. That would leave them at 14-2 and in lone possession of first. Lose to Davis and they'll likely be in a tie with UCSB for first but still win the conference based on the H2H results. Biggest weekend of the year next week on the rock for sure.
|
|
|
Post by staticb on Oct 25, 2019 11:47:02 GMT -5
I feel that the BW race will end up 1A/1B between UH & UCSB (which makes their match at the SSC quite the ticket!). That being said, will there be 1, 2, or 3 teams in the postseason? Barring a huge meltdown, I'm confident we'll get 3.
|
|
|
Post by BeachbytheBay on Oct 25, 2019 16:22:54 GMT -5
the problem with the 3 team scenario is that it is very unlikely that UH, SB, & Poly do not get upset - if they were all in the top 25, then yeah
#1), the upsets will lower the RPI for all 3 #2), it's likely to be at least 2-3 upsets (not guaranteed of course), especially with all the SB/Poly road games left. the Poly-Davis match Saturday is pretty big for all 3 top teams, Poly winning obviously helps their RPI/resume, and it goes to keep Poly as a top 50 win for SB (or Hawaii if Hawaii beats them later)
I think the Big West is a virtual lock to 2 bids right now, and 3 is about a 50-50 proposition.
the good news is for the first time in forever, there are 3 teams that put together good non-conference resumes, albeit SB's SOS is pretty bad and home heavy. And if all 3 go 1-1 in their round robin with each other, that's ok for their resume, since they are all top 50 teams. Whoever goes 2-0 in that Round Robin is a lock to get in, regardless of who wins the title, because that 2-0 in top 50 matches will be huge on the resume.
basically, among Poly-SB-Hawaii, they have 3 losses left to share between them, if they don't get upset. 3 upsets would take that to 6 losses to share between them, and that would make the resumes more iffy with that. Extremely unlikely that there are no more upsets the rest of the way. The projection is for 5 losses among the 3 teams
|
|
|
Post by Riviera Minestrone on Oct 25, 2019 16:37:04 GMT -5
(Random: another thread was going on about it.) Early guess, BWC Coach of the Year: Robyn Ah Mow.
|
|
|
Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Oct 25, 2019 16:39:51 GMT -5
Hawaii's RPI is in the Top 10, they're not missing the NCAA tourney.
|
|
|
Post by Courtside5 on Oct 25, 2019 17:04:45 GMT -5
Hawaii's RPI is in the Top 10, they're not missing the NCAA tourney. Welcome back from sitting in the corner.
|
|
|
Post by Riviera Minestrone on Oct 25, 2019 17:07:40 GMT -5
Hawaii's RPI is in the Top 10, they're not missing the NCAA tourney. Welcome back from sitting in the corner. Yeah, I knew something/someone came out of nowhere!
|
|
|
Post by baytree on Oct 25, 2019 17:24:54 GMT -5
the problem with the 3 team scenario is that it is very unlikely that UH, SB, & Poly do not get upset - if they were all in the top 25, then yeah #1), the upsets will lower the RPI for all 3#2), it's likely to be at least 2-3 upsets (not guaranteed of course), especially with all the SB/Poly road games left. the Poly-Davis match Saturday is pretty big for all 3 top teams, Poly winning obviously helps their RPI/resume, and it goes to keep Poly as a top 50 win for SB (or Hawaii if Hawaii beats them later) I think the Big West is a virtual lock to 2 bids right now, and 3 is about a 50-50 proposition. the good news is for the first time in forever, there are 3 teams that put together good non-conference resumes, albeit SB's SOS is pretty bad and home heavy. And if all 3 go 1-1 in their round robin with each other, that's ok for their resume, since they are all top 50 teams. Whoever goes 2-0 in that Round Robin is a lock to get in, regardless of who wins the title, because that 2-0 in top 50 matches will be huge on the resume. basically, among Poly-SB-Hawaii, they have 3 losses left to share between them, if they don't get upset. 3 upsets would take that to 6 losses to share between them, and that would make the resumes more iffy with that. Extremely unlikely that there are no more upsets the rest of the way. The projection is for 5 losses among the 3 teams I disgree with #1. That would be true if they'd played each other out of conference or if the Big West had unbalanced schedules (like the B1G) but, when calculating your RPI, the only thing that matters is (1) if you won or lost (25%), (2) if your opponents won or lost (50%), or (3) if you opponents' opponents won or lost. In a balanced conference, (2) will be close to 50% for the conference portion bc you play all the teams but yourself and, overall, teams in the conference will win 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time. You'll take just as big of a hit from CSUN losing as from Cal Poly losing (unless you're CP). RPI is adjusted for things like whether the win/loss was home or away and if the opponent was Top 25 but those only affect the first part of the formula (your own win/loss%), not parts 2 or 3 (OWP or OOWP). You want as many of your opponents as possible to be in the Top 25/Top 50 bc you get a bonus for beating them, so an upset that knocked CP, Hawaii, or UCSB out of the Top 25/Top 50 could matter for your own RPI but otherwise, your RPI will be the same if you're UCSB no matter if CP or Hawaii wins when they play. One of your opponents will win and one will lose so 50% overall to your component (2). Same if you're CP; it won't matter to your RPI whether Hawaii or UCSB wins when they play (or if you're Hawaii, it won't matter whether CP or UCSB wins). Whether teams you play are Top 25/50 can affect your nitty gritty if your team is on a border (e.g., regional host, in/out of NCAAs), esp if you're on the border for getting into the tournament. So an upset could matter if it knocked a team out of being in the Top 25 or, to a lesser extent, the Top 50 (or elevated them to Top 25/Top 50) but I don't understand why it would matter otherwise
|
|
|
Post by Riviera Minestrone on Oct 25, 2019 17:36:44 GMT -5
the problem with the 3 team scenario is that it is very unlikely that UH, SB, & Poly do not get upset - if they were all in the top 25, then yeah #1), the upsets will lower the RPI for all 3#2), it's likely to be at least 2-3 upsets (not guaranteed of course), especially with all the SB/Poly road games left. the Poly-Davis match Saturday is pretty big for all 3 top teams, Poly winning obviously helps their RPI/resume, and it goes to keep Poly as a top 50 win for SB (or Hawaii if Hawaii beats them later) I think the Big West is a virtual lock to 2 bids right now, and 3 is about a 50-50 proposition. the good news is for the first time in forever, there are 3 teams that put together good non-conference resumes, albeit SB's SOS is pretty bad and home heavy. And if all 3 go 1-1 in their round robin with each other, that's ok for their resume, since they are all top 50 teams. Whoever goes 2-0 in that Round Robin is a lock to get in, regardless of who wins the title, because that 2-0 in top 50 matches will be huge on the resume. basically, among Poly-SB-Hawaii, they have 3 losses left to share between them, if they don't get upset. 3 upsets would take that to 6 losses to share between them, and that would make the resumes more iffy with that. Extremely unlikely that there are no more upsets the rest of the way. The projection is for 5 losses among the 3 teams I disgree with #1. That would be true if they'd played each other out of conference or if the Big West had unbalanced schedules (like the B1G) but, when calculating your RPI, the only thing that matters is (1) if you won or lost (25%), (2) if your opponents won or lost (50%), or (3) if you opponents' opponents won or lost. In a balanced conference, (2) will be close to 50% for the conference portion bc you play all the teams but yourself and, overall, teams in the conference will win 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time. You'll take just as big of a hit from CSUN losing as from Cal Poly losing. RPI is adjusted for things like whether the win/loss was home or away and if the opponent was Top 25 but those only affect the first part of the formula (your own win/loss%), not parts 2 or 3 (OWP or OOWP). You want as many of your opponents as possible to be in the Top 25/Top 50 bc you get a bonus for beating them, so an upset that knocked CP, Hawaii, or UCSB out of the Top 25/Top 50 could matter for your own RPI but otherwise, your RPI will be the same if you're UCSB no matter if CP or Hawaii wins when they play. One of your opponents will win and one will lose so 50% overall to your component (2). Same if you're CP; it won't matter to your RPI whether Hawaii or UCSB wins when they play (or if you're Hawaii, it won't matter whether CP or UCSB wins). Whether teams you play are Top 25/50 can affect your nitty gritty if your team is on a border (e.g., regional host, in/out of NCAAs), esp if you're on the border for getting into the tournament. So an upset could matter if it knocked a team out of being in the Top 25 or, to a lesser extent, the Top 50 (or elevated them to Top 25/Top 50) but I don't understand why it would matter otherwise Whew: gotta uncross my eyes after reading all that! I know that your info is spot-on; you've researched +/or just know your stuff. I think the BWC is at 2-3 spots.
|
|