This will be the first time in a while (the past two OG) where USA goes into the OG not the favorites to win. I would group the qualified teams like this:
Favorites:
China - Looked the best to me during this IOQT. Playing 4 weeks of the VNL prelims with most of the same roster has paid off.
Italy - Solid as ever but is more inexperienced at the OG with it's current roster. Plus it depends on what kind of day Egonu has.
Serbia - Still a threat but doesn't have the depth of China/Italy and is missing several key players that make them stronger.
Outside Shot:
USA - I am definitely ready to be at full strength (whatever that is) and to stop shuffling rosters.
Brazil - If everyone is healthy and Fe Garay, Sheilla and Fabiana rejoin the team and are in good shape anything is possible.
Japan (due to being hosts....that can cause a team to surge for sure)
Netherlands/Turkey (Probable CEV winners) I am really bummed only one of them will even be there. Both show streaks of top level play but when it counts they just can't seem to deliver.
Cannon Fodder:
Russia - They just look terrible. Still physical but not really going to push the tougher teams
Korea/Thailand (Probable AVC winners)
Cameroon/Kenya (Probable CAVB winners)
Dominican Republic/Canada/Puerto Rico (Probable NORCECA winners)
Argentina/Peru/Colombia (Probably CSV winners)