TEAM-BY-TEAM PREVIEWArizonaPersonnel: The Wildcats return all starters but one – high-usage All-PAC OH Kendra Dahlke. Candice Denny, who also filled in as a slide-hitting app for much of the year, transferred out. The returning crew is led by All-PAC HMs setter Julia Patterson and middle Devyn Cross, and 3 hard-hitting pins in Paige Whipple, Elizabeth Shelton (who missed all of conference season last year), and Katie Smoot. DS Kamaile Hiapo is the most likely newcomer to contribute.
Schedule: Arizona’s non-con is highlighted by a match-up with Nebraska at the SDSU tournament, with other notable tilts against LMU at home and possible at-large teams Kansas and Syracuse in the Kansas tournament. This is a good RPI schedule with a lot of high-performing small conference teams, only 1 sub-500 team (WVU) and everything is very winnable except for Nebraska. 11-1 is possible, worse than 10-2 and something’s wrong.
They skip the LA schools in conference, which generally softens the schedule, but Cats historically do really well in that match-up so who knows.
Outlook: Arizona had incredibly poor injury luck last season and spent most of the conference season with 2-4 starters missing matches. Despite that, they clawed their way to an 11-9, 5th place conference finish before failing to show up for their first round NCAA match. Arizona is shockingly physical, with an elite setter and an improving back row corps. Their blocking ability should catch up to their physicality this year. While Dahlke is a big loss, the team easily makes up for Dahlke’s loss by merely being
moderately healthy (and, I also suspect Whipple will cleanly replace Dahlke’s production, as Dahlke replaced Mau’s, and Mau replaced Kingdon’s, and so on since the beginning of time – which is approximately when Rubio started coaching at Arizona). This is a Sweet 16 team if it clicks, with another 1st Round exit as their floor if injuries, or unforced errors, take over again.
Arizona StatePersonnel: Kill leader Alyse Ford and block leader Carmen Unzue graduate, with transfers Jada Burse from Kansas and Andrea Mitrovic from Buffalo (first team All-MAC) coming in to help out, along with a good freshman middle in Kennedy Boyd. Outside Ivana Jeremic will lead a returning crew highlighted by libero Courtney Leffel and middle Megan Beedie.
Schedule: ASU has scheduled prudently OOC, with the toughest tilts at Lousiville in Week 2 and against LSU in Week 1. Kansas, Oklahoma, WKU, and Georgia Tech are also on the docket in matches that should really tell us a lot about how much the Sun Devils have improved. They have no home matches until opening PAC-12 play at home against Arizona.
Outlook: ASU was better than their record last year, and Sanja has done a good job stabilizing the program. The team showed some good play in spurts but could not consistently put it together – and possibly lacked the horses to do so. A setter hasn’t really stepped up to own the job, which has to be the biggest concern. But I like Jeremic, and I think the transfers will help raise their level, particularly if Mitrovic is a 6-rotation player as advertised. I’m tentatively penciling them in for continued improvement but don’t think they match up position-by-position with those above them.
CalPersonnel: Cal does not lose any starters, with outside Carmen Annevelink the most notable graduation. Cal will continue to try to run its offense through prolific middles Lauren Forte and Preslie Anderson, with Mima Mirkovic doing it all in support. Pins Bailee Huizenga and Maddie Haynes return to bolster the front line as well, with two freshmen – Deniz Milli (Turkey) and Sydney Lilomaiava, coming in as freshman. They switched from a 6-2 to a 5-1 midway through conference season last year, so the pin positions will get even more crowded.
Schedule: Cal is another school that has scheduled reasonably, with tough matches in Fort Collins against CSU and Oklahoma and against UNC and UCI in Irvine. There are some potentially problematic RPI matches (home-and-home with a rebuilding St. Mary’s, Chicago St.) that may come back to bite them. Cal skips the Washington schools this year and doesn’t have to go to Pullman, which is a very good thing.
Outlook: Setting has been problematic for Cal since Lloyd’s graduation, but Potter won the job outright in the last half of PAC-12 play, and we’ll see if she can solidify things in Year 3. The back row will try to be a bit stouter defensively this year to help Cal defend and transition well enough to win rallies – something they couldn’t always do when opponents weren’t hitting at Mima. The Bears have enough offense to get it done if the first two contacts come together, especially when the middles are available. They will need to pull out a good preseason record to get their RPI in position for NCAA consideration – new coach Sam Crosson has some bellwether matches early – to top off a long rebuild the PAC has been waiting for.
ColoradoPersonnel: Colorado was absolutely ravaged by loss in the offseason. 3 of their 4 pins (incl. All-American Alexa Smith and the very dangerous Anyse Smith), and their All-American middle Naghede Abu are gone. To top it off, one of their setters, Brynna DeLuzio, is out for the year. Jenna Ewert looks to lead the Buffs in a 5-1 role with Justine Spann on the outside and Danielle Price in the middle coming back to help out offensively, plus libero Rachel Whipple. The Buffs have a Top 10 recruiting class coming in, with needed depth on the pins, as well as Meegan Hart, an Iowa St. transfer in the middle.
Schedule: The Buffs have three marquee match-ups – Illinois in Iowa City, as well as a home-and-home with CSU. They will hope to take a match or two there, but they can’t really afford any slip-ups against the rest of the slate, which is a bit softer (toughest match will likely be UCSB @wyo). They underperformed in the non-conference last year (due to some injury problems) and definitely don't want a repeat in 2019. They skip the Oregon schools in conference.
Outlook: I am probably a bit higher than most on the Buffs (as evidenced by today’s coaches’ poll). IMO, Ewert is an elite setter and their freshman outside corps is underrated. There will be bumps along the way, and probably quite a few matches where it doesn’t come together, but I trust in Ewert (plus the usual 2-3 Boulder matches they win but shouldn’t) to scrape this team into the tourney. There will be a lot of new faces on the front line, and it will be key to get them rolled into not just the offense but CU’s high-risk blocking scheme ASAP. Passing is also a bit of a question mark at this point, but you could say that about a lot of teams.
Oregon
Personnel: Oregon loses two All-Americans – setter August Raskie and outside Lindsey Vander Weide – along with Lauren Page and Sumeet Gill who combined for the hold down the M2 spot. The depth also took a hit with 4 transfers in the off-season, particularly hitting the defensive specialist ranks. The Ducks still have copious talent left and will rely on Ronika Stone and Willow Johnson to lead the attack, with sophomore Brooke Nuneviller sliding over to outside hitter and crushing balls. A bevy of freshmen (10!) will compete to fill in the other spots, with redshirst Kylie Robinson and Karson Bacon having a leg up with a full year in the system. Early enrollee Georgia Murphy looks locked in at the libero position, and Taylor Williams, Elise Ferreira, Abby Hansen, and Morgan Lewis are among the other freshmen trying to battle their way into the line-up. A majority of the freshmen came early for Spring season (and all went on the foreign tour).
Schedule: The Ducks’ schedule is highlighted by a Week 3 trip to Pennsylvania with Top 10 match-ups against Pitt, Minnesota, and Penn St. The rest of the schedule features some very RPI-beneficial opponents (mostly Eastern) who should also provide solid competition, but that the young Ducks would hope to handle. They skip the Mountain schools in conference and avoid a trip to SLC.
Outlook: Despite youth, expectations are high for Oregon, coming off an Elite 8 appearance and 2nd place finish in the PAC-12 last year. Oregon has high-end talent in both the front and back row and will again have one of the most dangerous offenses in the country, and the combination of Murphy and Nuneviller in for 6 rotations behind an even stouter block will make the Ducks tougher to score on. The roster is thin in spots due to the transfers, so the Ducks will need to stay healthy, and, oh yeah, PLAY BETTER AT HOME (ferchrisssakes) – where they have a propensity to take some befuddling losses. Despite the physical talent, the Ducks can struggle with match-to-match consistency. If this team gets dialed in and focused, the Ducks will be just as dangerous as last year, and more consistently so. If not, my liver will weep.
Oregon StatePersonnel: The Beavers lose two middles but rotated the position liberally and return 3 (Lindsey Schell, Kory Cheshire, and Serena Bruin) who have played a lot. The key newcomer is transfer outside Chloe Brown (from Miami), who joins a now-deep set of pin hitters including Amy Underdown, Maddie Goings, Haylie Bennett, and Canuck frosh Cecilee Max-Brown. Grace Massey is solidly in the orange jersey.
Schedule: The Beavers schedule is a bit ambitious, led by matches against Cal Poly and Colorado St., with UCI, Indiana, and Oklahoma as potentially interesting outings for them. The PAC-12 is going to hope the Beavers take no more than 2 losses here just for the conference’s RPI fate. Fortunately for OSU, they don’t have to play in Boulder this year.
Outlook: Last season, without MK Marshall, went as expected, and OSU is hoping for a rebound from their 1-19 campaign. It will be difficult as the bottom of the PAC has improved in recent years and the Beavers are a bit undersized compared to their competitors. I would expect this to continue to be a pin dominant offense that will try to grind out a lot of long rallies. They have 3 setters, and who will win the job remains a mystery, though the personnel seems to lend itself to a 6-2. This is a stout team that will be markedly better than last year, and I’m curious to see how the H2H with lower-half Big 10 team Indiana goes, but I still think they may not be quite into tourney contention yet.
StanfordPersonnel: So the defending national champions return 4 All-Americans (Plummer, Gray, Hentz, Fitz), plus HM McClure and starting middle Campbell. They did lose one starter but are bringing in All-American transfer Madeleine Gates from UCLA to cover the gap. You’d think this would be enough….
The Cardinal bring in the nation’s #1 recruiting class, with high-impact players at every offensive position. Such blatant monopolization of talent must violate at least one federal or state unfair competition law; someone should look into that.
Schedule: One of the toughest non-conference slates ever assembled, after a warm-up against CofC and Duke, Stanford goes for 6 straight matches against Top 10-type teams over the next 3 weeks. So yeah, they’re doing that. In conference, they don’t have to play in Seattle, which has been one of the few venues in conference to trouble them.
Outlook: I could say a lot, but Stanford’s already been analyzed to death (whither Kipp goeth?) and it’s only early August. It’s national title or bust for the Cardinal – don’t sink the Titanic, Kev!
UCLAPersonnel: The Bruins lost a starting middle and prolific libero Zana Muno to graduation, and then starting setter Kylie Miller and AA middle Madeleine Gates transferred. Sealy brought in transfer setter Cali Thompson from Portland and two quality freshmen in middle Dodson and libero Hinkle. The pins remain intact, with Mac May, Jenny Mosser, Alexis Light returning, and Devon Chang & Hawley Harrer as potential setters.
Schedule: It’s going to be rough out of the gate with Baylor and Nebraska in Week 1, and after that @ Hawaii in Week 3 is the toughest match-up. The rest of the schedule should be fairly manageable, as long as they don’t repeat their November tailspin from last year. Bruins skip the Arizona schools.
Outlook: Coming off the FIRST LOSING SEASON IN BRUIN HISTORY, UCLA is the ultimate wild-card. Sealy once again has a mid-major transfer setter, which seems to be his comfort zone, and the offense Thompson ran at UP (mostly just shoot it quick to the left, from virtually everywhere) aligns really well with what Sealy likes. The middles will be raw, and I expect blocking to be a liability for them, especially if they run a 5-1 with Thompson. I don’t know who their 3 primary passers will be at this point, and that should probably also be a concern. But UCLA never should have been as bad as they were last year. Mac May is too good to miss the tournament 2 years in a row and is the type of athlete who can carry a team, and I’m curious to see if Mosser or Light or Harrer or someone else emerges as a complementary threat. I’m keeping them out of my Top 25 until they show it on the court, but I am also still kind of expecting a bounceback year.
USCPersonnel: The Trojans return the core of their engine – All-American OHs Khalia Lanier and Brooke Botkin, talented setter Raquel Lazáro, and Emily Baptista who put in yeoman’s work on the right last year. They did lose their libero and top DS but have recruited Abril Bustamante from the beach team to cover. The two players who split the M2 position are similarly gone, but they have most likely upgraded with top 10 recruit Madison Horin or transfers Chandlar Duff and Candice Denny to play across from Jasmine Gross – addressing a significant liability.
Schedule: The Trojans will be tested, with a trip to Texas in Week 1 and the annual slugfest with Kentucky, UNI, and Creighton in Week 2. A trip to San Diego in Week 3 is another potential stumbling block. The RPI should be stellar if they can come out with 2 or fewer losses.
Outlook: You can count on one hand the number of teams with a 1-2 punch on the outside that rivals a healthy Lanier and Botkin. They’re going to be even more frightening if Lazaro can make the middle attack more of a threat this year. The Women were derailed down the stretch by concussions to Lanier and Botkin, which had both of them out at the same time, and never got back into a groove once they came back into the lineup. It will be Crouch’s challenge to get this team humming again, but the Trojans have all the tools to make a deep run in December if they can pass the damn ball.
UtahPersonnel: With Megan Yett winning the L2 job to close the 2018 season, the Utes were set to bring back their entire starting lineup – until senior-to-be setter Bailey Choy exited. Setter Saige Ka’aha’aina-Torres does come back to dish the ball to everyone else including All-American Dani Drews on the OH and Kenzie Koerber on the right. Bri Doehrmann is one of the better liberos in conference and will anchor the defense behind a more experienced set of middles this year – most notably redshirt senior Berkeley Oblad, whose absence last season dealt a big blow to the Utes, and Phoebe Grace and Kennedi Evans, who put in good work as freshmen last year. Launiere brings in 5 freshmen, the highest-ranked of whom is pin hitter Zoe Weatherington.
Schedule: The Utes have one of the more difficult non-conference slates, with Kentucky and Cal Poly on opening weekend, before a really interesting tournament in Malibu with Pitt, Cal Poly (yes, again) and Pepperdine. And oh yeah, they have the annual showdown with BYU to boot, who they haven’t beaten at home in quite some time. Lots of opportunities for the Utes to make a statement early. They skip the Oregon schools in PAC-12 play.
Outlook: Utah starts 2 lefty hitters – what’s not to love! I predict Dani Drews serves up some Regla Bell realness and dominates on the left this year, with a nicely balanced team around her both offensively and defensively. Koerber and Yett/Sproule will continue to increase their production, and I look for Oblad to repeat – or better - her HM AA showing from 2017 and reestablish the “Block U” defensive net presence. This is a very solid team, and the only real question mark is at the setting position. While I love Choy’s hands, it does seem like Beth was never really comfortable handing her the reins in a 5-1, so it remains to be seen what that loss actually looks like on the court. This is solidly a Sweet 16 team, which can threaten to go deeper, provided they avoid a Provo subregional.
WashingtonPersonnel: Washington is another team that returns almost everybody, with only DS Destiny Julye graduating among major contributors. All-American Kara Bajema will hold down the left pin, and Sam Drechsel emerged as a secondary threat on the right over the course of last season for setter Ella May Powell. The third pin position was less settled, with Claire Hoffman taking over at L2 down the stretch, but Shannon Crenshaw and Dani Cole (coming off a redshirt year) will look to fill that spot. The middle is similarly deep, with Avie Niece and Lauren Sanders as incumbents fighting off Marin Grote and heralded recruit Sophie Summers. Senior Shayne McPherson leads a crew of 4 defensive specialists.
Schedule: You can tell JMac is no longer in charge of the schedule. A home-and-home with Wisconsin, neutral court match-up with Illinois, and trip to a surging Hawaii will put the Huskies to the test early. San Diego and Creighton may be rebuilding but will also offer good tests (though ones the Huskies hopefully pass). These are big opportunities for a team with big aspirations to position themselves for a post-season seed. They skip the Bay Area schools in conference and don’t get a shot at Stanford in HecEd.
Outlook: Husky nation is salivating at the production they return, after a nice run to the Sweet 16 in a “rebuilding” year in 2018. While they may miss Julye’s devastating serve (and leadership), they should remain an elite serving team. Combined with relatively weak passing, Husky matches often involve dueling runs of points and some erratic scores from set to set, relying on Bajema to bail them out of long rallies. The Huskies have a lot of potential contributors but will continue to search for the “Goldliocks” combination that helps balance serve receive with offensive and defensive production - though I'm not sure there's an obvious answer yet. UW fans will hope that continuity and experience bring them even further this year.
Washington StatePersonnel: Washington St. is similar to Colorado in that their offense just flew away in the offseason. With 4 of their 5 primary attackers graduated, including all 3 pins (who were also the heart of the Cougars’ fearsome block), the Greeny’s have a lot of questions going into 2019. But the skill players all return – setter Ashley Brown, libero Alexis Dirige (both among the better ones at their position in conference) and utility player Penn Tusa – and Mexican national team middle Jocelyn Urias is a very effective point-scorer. WSU will rely on some players who have been stashed on the bench redshirting – Charity Bradley, Kalyah Williams – and 7 true freshman (incl. several foreigners and should-have-been-a-Top-100-senior-aces Mykayla Myers and Alexcis Lusby) to step up and replace the lost production.
Schedule: WSU’s schedule is VERY modest, perhaps befitting a rebuilding year, with James Madison or UTRGV as maybe the toughest contest, and a reeling Iowa as the only Power 5 opponent. This is a slate that will help build confidence and chemistry, and I would be surprised if they dropped a match (which also wouldn’t be very good for their post-season hopes). They skip the Bay Area schools and don’t have to play Stanford at Maples, which I guess makes for one of the better draws for PAC-12 play, esp. if Cal has rebounded.
Outlook: I imagine most predict a drop for WSU given what they graduated, and how key the players were to the consecutive NCAA appearances and Sweet 16 run. But those predicting too dramatic of a drop underestimate how well the Greenys have been recruiting, and there are still the pieces here to make them a tough out – Bradley et al. should be able to score and Dirige and Tusa in particular are just pure fighters, which combined with their HCA in Boehler should lead to some unexpected wins. They will miss Martin’s shut-down blocking ability and Mims’ ability to manufacture kills, but on the flip side I seem them as a better ball control team this year. They won’t be as good as last year, but it will be exciting to see the season play out and see if they can end up on the right side of the bubble – though the OOC SOS will place them at risk if they are firmly on it.
