RPI Futures Week 0 - 2019

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on the win probabilities per Pablo rating for all matches on each team's schedule.  

RPI Rank. School - Conference (Projected Wins - Losses) - RPI Percentage - SOS Rank

1. Stanford - Pac 12 (24-4) - .6891 - 2

2. Kentucky - Southeastern Conference (24-5) - .6648 - 10

3. Nebraska - Big Ten (24-5) - .6615 - 16

4. Texas - Big 12 (19-5) - .6602 - 4

5. BYU - West Coast (26-3) - .6596 - 30

6. Illinois - Big Ten (22-7) - .6558 - 6

7. Wisconsin - Big Ten (21-7) - .6469 - 7

8. Minnesota - Big Ten (21-7) - .6464 - 11

9. Penn State - Big Ten (22-7) - .6366 - 13

10. Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast (23-7) - .6262 - 33

11. Marquette - Big East (23-7) - .6250 - 42

12. Creighton - Big East (23-5) - .6199 - 56

13. Oregon - Pac 12 (19-10) - .6177 - 9

14. Florida - Southeastern Conference (21-8) - .6157 - 19

15. USC - Pac 12 (18-12) - .6100 - 3

16. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (22-10) - .6092 - 25

17. Baylor - Big 12 (16-10) - .6065 - 5

18. UCF - American Athletic (20-8) - .6026 - 40

19. Illinois State - Missouri Valley (21-9) - .5998 - 47

20. Cal Poly - Big West (21-7) - .5996 - 70

21. Pepperdine - West Coast (19-10) - .5992 - 29

22. Texas State - Sun Belt (23-7) - .5973 - 62

23. Michigan - Big Ten (20-10) - .5957 - 34

24. Rice - Conference USA (19-7) - .5951 - 60

25. Florida State - Atlantic Coast (19-10) - .5944 - 36

26. Tennessee - Southeastern Conference (19-9) - .5910 - 50

27. Washington - Pac 12 (17-13) - .5895 - 15

28. Louisville - Atlantic Coast (18-10) - .5893 - 35

29. Missouri - Southeastern Conference (19-11) - .5881 - 46

30. Washington State - Pac 12 (22-10) - .5881 - 66

31. Cincinnati - American Athletic (20-9) - .5879 - 59

32. San Diego - West Coast (19-10) - .5839 - 51

33. Utah - Pac 12 (16-15) - .5807 - 8

34. Purdue - Big Ten (18-12) - .5806 - 24

35. Colorado - Pac 12 (17-13) - .5790 - 27

36. High Point - Big South (22-9) - .5768 - 83

37. LMU - West Coast (16-14) - .5761 - 14

38. South Carolina - Southeastern Conference (17-13) - .5760 - 28

39. Iowa State - Big 12 (17-11) - .5758 - 38

40. Arizona - Pac 12 (18-14) - .5745 - 32

41. Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast (17-11) - .5738 - 48

42. Colorado State - Mountain West (21-8) - .5737 - 101

43. Texas A&M - Southeastern Conference (15-13) - .5691 - 20

44. Hawaii - Big West (18-9) - .5669 - 86

45. James Madison - Colonial (16-10) - .5663 - 52

46. Princeton - Ivy (18-5) - .5663 - 208

47. Syracuse - Atlantic Coast (15-10) - .5641 - 67

48. TCU - Big 12 (13-13) - .5637 - 21

49. Tulane - American Athletic (22-7) - .5635 - 166

50. Hofstra - Colonial (20-9) - .5635 - 112

51. Denver - The Summit (21-7) - .5634 - 176

52. East Tennessee State - Southern (23-5) - .5631 - 248

53. College of Charleston - Colonial (19-9) - .5624 - 106

54. Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun (23-7) - .5621 - 190

55. Dayton - Atlantic 10 (19-9) - .5604 - 105

56. Kansas State - Big 12 (16-12) - .5574 - 49

57. Iowa - Big Ten (13-18) - .5568 - 1

58. Oklahoma - Big 12 (16-11) - .5561 - 63

59. Arkansas-Little Rock - Sun Belt (19-9) - .5558 - 113

60. Yale - Ivy (16-7) - .5555 - 124

61. Stephen F. Austin - Southland (23-6) - .5552 - 235

62. UT Rio Grande Valley - Western Athletic (20-10) - .5546 - 120

63. Indiana - Big Ten (17-16) - .5536 - 41

64. Maryland - Big Ten (15-17) - .5535 - 23

65. Samford - Southern (17-10) - .5513 - 92

66. Wyoming - Mountain West (18-11) - .5510 - 82

67. Northern Arizona - Big Sky (23-7) - .5509 - 224

68. Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun (20-8) - .5499 - 165

69. Saint Marys - West Coast (16-12) - .5489 - 69

70. Valparaiso - Missouri Valley (22-10) - .5488 - 154

71. Stony Brook - America East (17-9) - .5480 - 123

72. New Mexico State - Western Athletic (20-8) - .5471 - 194

73. UCLA - Pac 12 (12-17) - .5455 - 22

74. North Texas - Conference USA (17-9) - .5453 - 128

75. Kansas - Big 12 (12-14) - .5453 - 37

76. LSU - Southeastern Conference (13-15) - .5450 - 39

77. Western Kentucky - Conference USA (20-9) - .5449 - 167

78. Wichita State - American Athletic (12-16) - .5441 - 12

79. Texas Tech - Big 12 (16-14) - .5440 - 61

80. South Dakota - The Summit (19-9) - .5439 - 178

81. UTSA - Conference USA (16-11) - .5434 - 89

82. Duke - Atlantic Coast (16-15) - .5431 - 53

83. Georgia - Southeastern Conference (14-15) - .5406 - 44

84. Tulsa - American Athletic (16-13) - .5402 - 76

85. Ole Miss - Southeastern Conference (12-17) - .5400 - 18

86. Missouri State - Missouri Valley (19-13) - .5400 - 109

87. VCU - Atlantic 10 (18-10) - .5391 - 153

88. Alabama - Southeastern Conference (15-14) - .5386 - 72

89. Towson - Colonial (19-10) - .5374 - 187

90. UCSB - Big West (15-12) - .5372 - 85

91. Florida Atlantic - Conference USA (15-11) - .5371 - 103

92. Northern Kentucky - Horizon (17-11) - .5368 - 122

93. Radford - Big South (18-8) - .5363 - 214

94. Murray State - Ohio Valley (19-9) - .5362 - 196

95. Northwestern - Big Ten (15-17) - .5357 - 45

96. Villanova - Big East (17-13) - .5355 - 88

97. Bradley - Missouri Valley (16-13) - .5351 - 91

98. Cal - Pac 12 (15-16) - .5346 - 54

99. Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast (13-14) - .5342 - 58

100. Ball State - Mid-American (17-11) - .5337 - 138

101. Arkansas State - Sun Belt (17-11) - .5336 - 147

102. Portland - West Coast (16-13) - .5330 - 94

103. Fresno State - Mountain West (20-10) - .5325 - 191

104. Ohio State - Big Ten (12-20) - .5323 - 17

105. St. Johns - Big East (16-15) - .5322 - 75

106. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley (17-13) - .5318 - 98

107. Eastern Michigan - Mid-American (18-10) - .5313 - 171

108. Michigan State - Big Ten (13-17) - .5312 - 43

109. Navy - Patriot (18-9) - .5311 - 192

110. Appalachian State - Sun Belt (16-13) - .5301 - 104

111. Central Arkansas - Southland (19-10) - .5300 - 207

112. SMU - American Athletic (13-14) - .5299 - 68

113. Southern Miss - Conference USA (17-12) - .5297 - 136

114. UMKC - Western Athletic (14-12) - .5283 - 102

115. Utah Valley - Western Athletic (15-13) - .5272 - 93

116. Pacific - West Coast (14-16) - .5264 - 71

117. Miami-OH - Mid-American (16-11) - .5260 - 159

118. Gonzaga - West Coast (16-14) - .5256 - 100

119. Green Bay - Horizon (18-11) - .5254 - 175

120. Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt (16-12) - .5252 - 148

121. UNCW - Colonial (18-11) - .5248 - 181

122. Florida International - Conference USA (16-11) - .5243 - 155

123. UC Davis - Big West (17-12) - .5240 - 158

124. NC State - Atlantic Coast (15-15) - .5237 - 80

125. Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun (17-11) - .5230 - 188

126. Bowling Green - Mid-American (16-12) - .5230 - 127

127. Buffalo - Mid-American (16-12) - .5227 - 140

128. Weber State - Big Sky (17-12) - .5226 - 157

129. UC Irvine - Big West (16-12) - .5226 - 137

130. American - Patriot (20-10) - .5210 - 262

131. Boise State - Mountain West (14-15) - .5199 - 74

132. Cleveland State - Horizon (14-13) - .5197 - 111

133. Sacramento State - Big Sky (16-15) - .5197 - 97

134. Clemson - Atlantic Coast (13-16) - .5196 - 73

135. Arkansas - Southeastern Conference (15-15) - .5187 - 87

136. Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt (13-16) - .5177 - 64

137. Sam Houston State - Southland (17-11) - .5177 - 210

138. Idaho - Big Sky (19-11) - .5175 - 245

139. UNLV - Mountain West (17-12) - .5167 - 169

140. UT Arlington - Sun Belt (15-13) - .5167 - 131

141. Arizona State - Pac 12 (13-18) - .5166 - 55

142. Army - Patriot (16-13) - .5164 - 134

143. South Alabama - Sun Belt (17-13) - .5164 - 182

144. Furman - Southern (14-13) - .5147 - 108

145. Temple - American Athletic (13-14) - .5142 - 84

146. Georgetown - Big East (17-15) - .5134 - 125

147. Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley (16-15) - .5131 - 118

148. Colgate - Patriot (16-12) - .5129 - 204

149. Drake - Missouri Valley (17-14) - .5121 - 160

150. USF - American Athletic (14-16) - .5116 - 81

151. Long Beach State - Big West (13-15) - .5096 - 90

152. Idaho State - Big Sky (16-14) - .5092 - 173

153. Cal Baptist - Western Athletic (16-12) - .5088 - 185

154. Auburn - Southeastern Conference (12-17) - .5079 - 78

155. Northern Colorado - Big Sky (18-12) - .5078 - 226

156. Oregon State - Pac 12 (10-21) - .5074 - 31

157. Morehead State - Ohio Valley (19-10) - .5067 - 292

158. Charlotte - Conference USA (17-14) - .5067 - 184

159. Liberty - Atlantic Sun (14-14) - .5062 - 141

160. Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley (17-11) - .5060 - 246

161. Wofford - Southern (16-14) - .5053 - 172

162. UConn - American Athletic (13-15) - .5053 - 95

163. North Carolina - Atlantic Coast (11-17) - .5049 - 57

164. Illinois-Chicago - Horizon (19-11) - .5045 - 281

165. Air Force - Mountain West (14-16) - .5044 - 107

166. Ohio - Mid-American (14-15) - .5042 - 110

167. UAB - Conference USA (14-13) - .5035 - 161

168. Western Michigan - Mid-American (16-12) - .5021 - 218

169. Boston College - Atlantic Coast (14-17) - .5013 - 117

170. Georgia Tech - Atlantic Coast (13-16) - .5010 - 114

171. Northeastern - Colonial (13-15) - .5009 - 142

172. Iona - Metro Atlantic (19-10) - .5008 - 295

173. Canisius - Metro Atlantic (19-11) - .5000 - 288

174. Cornell - Ivy (14-9) - .4998 - 257

175. LIU Brooklyn - Northeast (16-12) - .4988 - 228

176. Houston Baptist - Southland (15-16) - .4988 - 145

177. Winthrop - Big South (14-12) - .4987 - 206

178. Omaha - The Summit (14-16) - .4986 - 116

179. Albany - America East (13-11) - .4979 - 211

180. Central Connecticut State - Northeast (18-10) - .4972 - 298

181. Mercer - Southern (15-14) - .4970 - 217

182. Xavier - Big East (13-15) - .4955 - 139

183. Butler - Big East (14-16) - .4955 - 132

184. Loyola University Maryland - Patriot (15-15) - .4951 - 186

185. San Jose State - Mountain West (14-15) - .4940 - 162

186. New Hampshire - America East (14-11) - .4938 - 269

187. Abilene Christian - Southland (15-11) - .4924 - 274

188. Houston - American Athletic (13-18) - .4919 - 119

189. Purdue Fort Wayne - The Summit (17-13) - .4917 - 251

190. Sacred Heart - Northeast (17-12) - .4916 - 282

191. West Virginia - Big 12 (11-18) - .4907 - 79

192. Virginia Tech - Atlantic Coast (13-18) - .4904 - 135

193. Bryant - Northeast (19-13) - .4903 - 294

194. Troy University - Sun Belt (13-16) - .4901 - 163

195. San Francisco - West Coast (10-19) - .4883 - 65

196. La Salle - Atlantic 10 (12-14) - .4882 - 164

197. Seton Hall - Big East (16-16) - .4880 - 200

198. Harvard - Ivy (10-13) - .4880 - 133

199. Lehigh - Patriot (16-14) - .4855 - 270

200. Virginia - Atlantic Coast (12-19) - .4843 - 121

201. San Diego State - Mountain West (12-17) - .4837 - 152

202. New Mexico - Mountain West (14-16) - .4836 - 193

203. Santa Clara - West Coast (10-21) - .4834 - 77

204. Howard - Mid-Eastern (18-11) - .4833 - 304

205. Northwestern State - Southland (16-14) - .4824 - 273

206. UNC Greensboro - Southern (14-16) - .4824 - 213

207. Rider - Metro Atlantic (17-13) - .4818 - 285

208. CSU Bakersfield - Western Athletic (12-16) - .4800 - 170

209. Wright State - Horizon (14-14) - .4798 - 258

210. Cal State Northridge - Big West (12-16) - .4796 - 156

211. Stetson - Atlantic Sun (14-14) - .4787 - 232

212. UNC Asheville - Big South (15-10) - .4782 - 309

213. East Carolina - American Athletic (15-16) - .4780 - 229

214. Seattle - Western Athletic (14-16) - .4765 - 236

215. Evansville - Missouri Valley (13-18) - .4761 - 174

216. Rutgers - Big Ten (6-25) - .4760 - 26

217. Delaware - Colonial (12-15) - .4757 - 222

218. UMBC - America East (11-12) - .4754 - 261

219. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland (11-18) - .4753 - 144

220. UT Martin - Ohio Valley (16-15) - .4752 - 283

221. Marshall - Conference USA (11-16) - .4751 - 149

222. Oral Roberts - The Summit (11-18) - .4738 - 143

223. Northern Illinois - Mid-American (13-17) - .4727 - 197

224. Georgia Southern - Sun Belt (10-19) - .4691 - 129

225. Florida A&M - Mid-Eastern (17-14) - .4688 - 306

226. Western Carolina - Southern (12-17) - .4684 - 189

227. Oakland - Horizon (12-16) - .4683 - 209

228. Davidson - Atlantic 10 (12-15) - .4683 - 250

229. Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 (13-14) - .4681 - 278

230. Nevada - Mountain West (12-18) - .4681 - 205

231. Wake Forest - Atlantic Coast (12-17) - .4674 - 225

232. Grand Canyon - Western Athletic (11-17) - .4671 - 195

233. Elon - Colonial (12-18) - .4670 - 198

234. Mississippi State - Southeastern Conference (10-20) - .4666 - 126

235. Dartmouth - Ivy (12-13) - .4654 - 267

236. Columbia - Ivy (8-16) - .4654 - 115

237. Georgia State - Sun Belt (11-17) - .4653 - 179

238. Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 (10-16) - .4653 - 180

239. Presbyterian - Big South (11-17) - .4645 - 220

240. Campbell - Big South (12-15) - .4638 - 256

241. Indiana State - Missouri Valley (8-20) - .4637 - 99

242. McNeese State - Southland (14-14) - .4634 - 286

243. UTEP - Conference USA (9-18) - .4634 - 151

244. North Dakota State - The Summit (10-18) - .4633 - 150

245. SIUE - Ohio Valley (12-16) - .4624 - 242

246. UNF - Atlantic Sun (15-17) - .4620 - 266

247. New Orleans - Southland (13-17) - .4615 - 239

248. Charleston Southern - Big South (13-16) - .4610 - 253

249. Brown - Ivy (10-14) - .4603 - 241

250. Milwaukee - Horizon (13-17) - .4600 - 244

251. South Carolina Upstate - Big South (13-13) - .4598 - 296

252. Utah State - Mountain West (8-22) - .4581 - 96

253. Memphis - American Athletic (12-16) - .4561 - 249

254. Incarnate Word - Southland (11-18) - .4559 - 202

255. Chicago State - Western Athletic (10-21) - .4559 - 168

256. Central Michigan - Mid-American (13-15) - .4556 - 275

257. George Washington - Atlantic 10 (10-18) - .4552 - 199

258. Kent State - Mid-American (11-17) - .4541 - 238

259. George Mason - Atlantic 10 (10-17) - .4538 - 227

260. Montana State - Big Sky (9-18) - .4531 - 201

261. Duquesne - Atlantic 10 (11-16) - .4529 - 252

262. North Dakota - The Summit (17-14) - .4527 - 312

263. Fairfield - Metro Atlantic (13-14) - .4522 - 301

264. Akron - Mid-American (11-17) - .4519 - 240

265. Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley (14-16) - .4517 - 297

266. Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic (22-13) - .4509 - 330

267. Robert Morris - Northeast (14-15) - .4509 - 300

268. Holy Cross - Patriot (11-19) - .4495 - 221

269. Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley (12-17) - .4491 - 277

270. Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt (14-18) - .4482 - 293

271. Montana - Big Sky (10-19) - .4481 - 203

272. Chattanooga - Southern (12-17) - .4477 - 268

273. Providence - Big East (10-21) - .4461 - 212

274. Marist - Metro Atlantic (11-17) - .4455 - 272

275. Louisiana Tech - Conference USA (10-18) - .4449 - 216

276. UC Riverside - Big West (10-17) - .4444 - 259

277. Southern Utah - Big Sky (11-19) - .4428 - 260

278. Tennessee State - Ohio Valley (12-17) - .4422 - 289

279. IUPUI - Horizon (8-21) - .4420 - 177

280. Fordham - Atlantic 10 (10-16) - .4410 - 276

281. Hartford - America East (10-17) - .4399 - 263

282. South Dakota State - The Summit (9-19) - .4387 - 215

283. Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley (10-22) - .4370 - 223

284. DePaul - Big East (7-23) - .4350 - 146

285. Bethune-Cookman - Mid-Eastern (15-17) - .4350 - 311

286. Portland State - Big Sky (8-21) - .4346 - 219

287. Toledo - Mid-American (9-19) - .4339 - 230

288. Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern (17-13) - .4337 - 325

289. Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley (10-19) - .4333 - 271

290. Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley (10-20) - .4330 - 265

291. Hampton - Big South (10-15) - .4327 - 287

292. St. Francis-PA - Northeast (11-17) - .4319 - 299

293. William & Mary - Colonial (5-22) - .4286 - 130

294. Alabama A&M - Southwestern Athletic (21-11) - .4286 - 335

295. North Carolina A&T - Mid-Eastern (11-17) - .4258 - 307

296. The Citadel - Southern (10-19) - .4258 - 284

297. Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun (9-22) - .4255 - 233

298. Penn - Ivy (7-16) - .4248 - 264

299. Middle Tennessee - Conference USA (8-21) - .4245 - 231

300. Bucknell - Patriot (11-17) - .4221 - 302

301. Morgan State - Mid-Eastern (14-14) - .4200 - 331

302. Belmont - Ohio Valley (9-22) - .4200 - 243

303. Gardner-Webb - Big South (6-19) - .4178 - 237

304. Binghamton - America East (6-17) - .4168 - 234

305. Cal State Fullerton - Big West (5-22) - .4157 - 183

306. St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast (14-18) - .4149 - 319

307. Youngstown State - Horizon (8-21) - .4143 - 255

308. Southeastern Louisiana - Southland (8-22) - .4139 - 247

309. Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic (11-16) - .4132 - 314

310. Lamar - Southland (9-20) - .4103 - 290

311. North Alabama - Atlantic Sun (8-21) - .4077 - 280

312. Western Illinois - The Summit (9-20) - .4059 - 303

313. Nicholls State - Southland (9-18) - .4043 - 310

314. Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic (11-20) - .3981 - 313

315. Eastern Washington - Big Sky (6-25) - .3978 - 279

316. Niagara - Metro Atlantic (9-20) - .3956 - 308

317. Coppin State - Mid-Eastern (11-19) - .3946 - 322

318. Southern - Southwestern Athletic (12-19) - .3908 - 328

319. Lafayette - Patriot (9-23) - .3895 - 305

320. Texas Southern - Southwestern Athletic (11-16) - .3881 - 327

321. NJIT - Atlantic Sun (6-26) - .3847 - 254

322. North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern (9-22) - .3839 - 316

323. Jackson State - Southwestern Athletic (12-21) - .3725 - 333

324. Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern (6-19) - .3680 - 317

325. Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Southwestern Athletic (8-23) - .3616 - 318

326. Grambling State - Southwestern Athletic (8-20) - .3603 - 324

327. Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic (8-23) - .3554 - 323

328. Siena - Metro Atlantic (8-21) - .3546 - 326

329. Prairie View A&M - Southwestern Athletic (8-26) - .3509 - 321

330. Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast (7-23) - .3507 - 320

331. South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern (2-26) - .3428 - 291

332. Alcorn State - Southwestern Athletic (6-20) - .3411 - 329

333. Merrimack College - Northeast (2-20) - .3263 - 315

334. Delaware State - Mid-Eastern (7-23) - .3233 - 332

335. Mississippi Valley State - Southwestern Athletic (4-25) - .2976 - 334

[tnp101]

IOWA has SOS #1, Really? Is this right?
and Stanford has SOS #2?

[bluepenquin]

Iowa's projected opponents w/l% is 60.7% and Stanford's is 60.4%. SOS is more than this, but...

[jayj79]

I'm guessing this is all based on last season's final Pablo plugged into the composite schedule for the upcoming season.

[noblesol]

If the past season is prologue for the start of the current season, this looks like a good ordering. But, future results will vary, as team compositions have changed, venues will change, the unpredictable nature of injuries and hiring and firing will change things, and some of these variables will impact more than a little. I'd guess you have to get about four weeks of results into the current season before this ordering begins to reflect the actual strength of teams this season. For now it's probably a good approximation of what tier a team has scheduled itself into based on last seasons results, but how big those tiers are at the beginning of the season to make this a good projection, I'm not sure. It would be interesting to know how accurate it is at the beginning of the season in assigning teams to a Tier, and how precisely can those Tiers be broken down into acceptable usable sizes. For instance, if the Tiers were assigned as Top 16, 25, 50, 100, 150, etc., than how good is this ordering at each week of the season in its ability to correctly project what Tier a team will finish in at the end of the season?

[bluepenquin]

I wouldn't put too much into this ranking. Take Washington at #27. I will bet they finish better than #27 - as I will take the over on a 17-13 record. If they go 17-13, then #27 sounds pretty reasonable.

This does tell us some general themes. I think we are going to be talking about Texas State and Rice this year much like we talked about UCF last year.

Conference bias is shrinking - especially among the big conferences. Being in the middle of the PAC or B1G can stink and always will because the conference record is going to drive the RPI down. It doesn't look like the West Coast or Big West are at the same RPI disadvantage as in the past - nor the Big 12 and SEC with an offsetting advantage. The 2nd tier 'Eastern' conference schools are were the RPI advantages are coming - Missouri Valley, Conference USA, Colonial, AAC, Sun Belt.

SOS is pretty real right now - and this will become very firm around week 3 and 4. Because of the nature of D1 scheduling with 95% of the remaining schedule being conference matches after week 4 - virtually every team's SOS becomes very predictable. Essentially 75% of each team's RPI gets mostly locked in after just 30% of the season completed. And then RPI Futures becomes a goal setting engine. It can tell us how many wins are needed to receive various RPI goals (T4, T16, T40, T45, etc...).

[jayj79]

Aug 16, 2019 0:47:46 GMT -5 @sbvb said:

Aug 15, 2019 22:55:19 GMT -5 tnp101 said:

IOWA has SOS #1, Really? Is this right?
and Stanford has SOS #2?

Stanford doesn't ever get to play Stanford.

Iowa doesn't play Stanford either.
In fact, Iowa's OOC schedule doesn't look particularly challenging. I'm not saying that they NEED to schedule tough OOC, since they have their BIG schedule, but I just don't see how that merits "#1 SOS"

[bluepenquin]

Stanford OOC opponent W/L% - 75.8%
Iowa OOC opponent W/L% - 62.2%

Stanford conference opponent W/L% - 54.5%
Iowa conference opponent W/L% - 59.9%

People may be underestimating 1) how many more conference games teams play then non conference, 2) The impact of being an averagish team in a great conference compared to a top team in a great conference.

I bet it is pretty rare for the best team to have the toughest schedule since by definition they cannot play the best team.

And we are talking about RPI SOS - not Pablo SOS. There is still a difference. I think Iowa scheduled smart for the OOC. That said - Iowa's conference schedule is absolutely brutal. Look at the teams they play twice vs. those they play once - and I don't know how it could be more difficult.

[davebrake38]

Again, Awesome work Blue.

[tomclen]

So, you're saying Mississippi Valley State will open tournament play in State College? Am I reading this right?

[FreeBall]

Aug 16, 2019 7:12:50 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I wouldn't put too much into this ranking.

Remind us again. When do these rankings become more meaningful? After the 3rd or 4th week of the season?

[n00b]

Is this your expectation version or your simulation version?

I'd be interested in seeing the simulated numbers of what we expect to be the raw RPI value needed to be T4, T16, and T50.

[bluepenquin]

Aug 16, 2019 9:58:22 GMT -5 n00b said:

Is this your expectation version or your simulation version?

I'd be interested in seeing the simulated numbers of what we expect to be the raw RPI value needed to be T4, T16, and T50.

This is basic and not a simulation.  I didn't plan on doing simulations until ~ week 4 as I don't like working with 100% 2018 Pablo ratings - there is too much noise.  If it wasn't so time consuming - I might run it to see what it would look like...

[bluepenquin]

Aug 16, 2019 9:46:19 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

Aug 16, 2019 7:12:50 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I wouldn't put too much into this ranking.

Remind us again. When do these rankings become more meaningful? After the 3rd or 4th week of the season?

Difficult to answer. My take:

The projected rank right now holds virtually no meaning. Can be fun to look at, but just doesn't mean anything given that no games have been played and the projected records are based on '18 performance.

The projected rank starts to have more meaning from a predictive standpoint ~ Week 3 and 4.  

SOS gets pretty much locked down by Week 3 or 4 and the current SOS rank right now is pretty predictive of where it is likely to end.

Usually by Week 4 - simulation models become very useful in determining 'If team A wins X games, then there is a 90% chance the final RPI will be around Y'.

[Deleted]

Thank you for putting the work in on this. It's always interesting to see.