2019 Bracketology (10/16)
Oct 16, 2019 6:11:08 GMT -5
Barefoot In Kailua, 808, and 37 more like this
Post by trojansc on Oct 16, 2019 6:11:08 GMT -5
2019 Bracketology (10/16/2019)
Overview: Bracketology began in 2012. My goal has always been to predict which 32 teams get at-large bid into the NCAA into the tournament, to predict #1-16 seeds, and also to predict to which specific subregional (1st/2nd round) unseeded teams will be sent to. I achieve this by two main methods: (1) using the data that the NCAA handbook says it takes into consideration and (2) historical evidence/precedence set by prior committee decisions. #2 is tricky because you have to remember that the committee changes every year, and two different committees could make completely different decisions. This will be the 8th year of Bracketology.
This edition of Bracketology includes THREE parts. I probably won't be able to update this for at least a couple weeks, so I decided to go all out for ya'll in this edition.
Part 1: Most-likely to be Top 4 seed.
Part 2: Most-likely to be Top 16 seed.
Part 3: Conference Outlook. Predicted conference champion, predicted at-large bids.
Accuracy: In the previous 7 years, I've missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year. Complete history in 2nd post of this thread.
Before we get started...
Polite Request: Please do NOT quote the original post in its entirety. It's super long and clogs up the thread.
Part I - Regional Host (Top 4 Seed) Contenders
I was able to narrow it down to EIGHT teams that I think have the most likely chance of hosting a regional in December. I would think that it is almost a guarantee that three of four come from this grouping at this point, but you never know, wild things can happen!
There are the two important questions I ask myself when looking at who is in the running for a Top 4 seed:
(1) What is the team's potential path to a Top 4 seed? (i.e, winning out, beating Tougaloo, splitting with Marquette, etc)
(2) How likely is it that the team can actually follow that path, and deliver a resume that is capable of being a Top 4 seed.
I don't think one specific ranking such as RPI, RPI Futures, or Pablo is best for me to determine the best answer to those questions. I like to use all three, and my own gut feeling of how teams are playing and their potential to determine whether or not a team has a realistic shot. That being said, here we go!
Baylor Bears (#1). Baylor is 15-0, and has 6 wins against Top 25 teams, and 9 wins against Top 50 teams. Hawaii, Wisconsin, Creighton, Marquette, UCLA, and Missouri are their top wins. Wisconsin, Creighton, and Marquette are guaranteed excellent wins. UCLA and Missouri still have some questions, but they'll still most likely at worst end up T50 wins. It's gonna take multiple losses (outside of the Texas matches) to knock Baylor out of a Top 5 RPI. I think it's really hard to see Baylor not getting a Top 4 seed in December. It's pretty simple: Pack your bags, we're going to Waco, TX!
Texas Longhorns (#2). If we're talking #1 and #2 both being from the same conference, one would usually be thinkingB1G-10 or PAC-12. Nope. We're talking about the only two teams that got IN the tournament last year from the Big-12. Texas is my next favorite to host a regional, after Baylor. Hypothetically, say Texas and Baylor split their H2H matches, and to be on the safe side, give them both an additional loss, for 2 more losses on the season for both teams. I could see both getting a regional seed at that point. Baylor would be in a much better position than Texas, and probably a guarantee, but I still think Texas would have a strong case. Texas has very "good losses", both on the road, both in 5 sets, both to Top 10 teams in RPI Futures... ( 2-3 at Rice and 2-3 at Stanford). BYU and Minnesota should end up as very good wins. A&M is still a little up in the air. I think Texas has to beat Baylor at least once to really feel better. Nonetheless, I think compared to others, Texas has a pretty favorable path to a T4 seed.
Washington Huskies (#3) They really even surprise me being here. I made a rough draft of this Bracketology a couple weeks ago that I wasn't able to finish, and I had Washington up here at 3rd in line. I thought I'd look at the numbers again and by now it would have been easy to move them down. But, the truth is that Washington looks really good to host a regional if they can take care of business. They do not face Stanford again, and only get California once at home. Washington has REALLY good road wins: at Wisconsin, at Stanford, at Creighton. My main concern is Washington actually winning the rest of their matches. They've lost at USC and at Washington State, and nearly lost to Oregon at home. But, when you consider the relative strength of their remaining schedule and how their RPI numbers are looking up, it is easily understandable as to why Washington is so high on this list. The at Stanford win is really what gives them the extra edge here.
Stanford Cardinal (#4). This is going to be unique, depending on how many losses Stanford ends up taking. They've had an unprecedented brutal schedule thus far, and definitely taken some punches as they've dealt some blows as well. I can't take them out of the Top 4 for now. Wins against Texas, at Florida, vs. California, at Nebraska, and at Penn State propel them. They would certainly be ahead of Washington based on most criteria, but I think it's very important to value the H2H matchup between the Huskies and the Cardinal. It was on Stanford's home court. It will be very interesting to track Stanford vs. Washington in the T4 race, and see if both can get in. And - as skeptical as I am of Washington being able to do what's expected of them the rest of PAC-12 season - I'm still just as skeptical of Stanford. Last week Stanford had the Arizona's at home, but prior to that they had dropped a match in each week for three weeks straight.
Wisconsin Badgers (#5) There's a red-hot team in the B1G, and it's not Big Red. It's the Badgers! They're my clear favorite right now from the B1G to get a Regional seed. I think if they can create some distance from Nebraska particularly, they will have a really great chance. In the past two weeks, Wisconsin took down Penn State, Nebraska, and Minnesota. They'll have to face all three again, and two of which will be on the road. Wisconsin has "good losses", Washington(x2), Baylor, and Marquette. All still have a chance to be Regional Hosts. I feel pretty confident that Wisconsin has the best chance of any B1G contender. Not just by the numbers, but also by how they are playing.
Pittsburgh Panthers (#6) Pittsburgh will likely be a very interesting case. They've got a ton of wins right now against teams 26-70 in RPI, but just the one big victory over Penn State. They have Louisville(x2), Florida State, and Notre Dame remaining for big signature wins. Louisville is probably going to finish with a really good RPI -- but how sure can we be that Pittsburgh is actually going to win those matches? And trust me, I think Pittsburgh is loaded. They a really good complete TEAM. Their numerical RPI potential alone leads me to think that I should have them higher on this list, but the truth is they have a shaky resume. Splitting the home and home with Penn State just might not cut it when regional host selection time comes around, even if Pittsburgh has an RPI that puts them well in contention.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (#7) Nebraska still has a great chance at a regional as well, but they don't have a lot of margin for error. They've only lost two matches, to teams that are already higher favorites to get a regional seed (Wisconsin and Stanford). Nebraska gets the chance to avenge their loss at Wisconsin, which could be huge to determining if they have a serious shot at a Top 4 seed in December. Nebraska would be higher, but I think they could have done more OOC. Creighton is a very good win, but I'm not sure about what's going to be made of UCLA, Arizona, and San Diego. I'm still very unsure of how well this team is going to finish in the B1G. Another struggle for them is their B1G schedule. They only get Minnesota and Penn State once. Nebraska might be lacking on T25 victories -- especially when compared to other Top Power-5 teams.
Rice Owls (#8) Rice is my last serious contender for a Top 4 seed. It is going to probably require chaos and then some, but I think they're one of the first in line if that scenario did ensue. RPI Futures has Rice at #7 and that includes losing one more game. So, if Rice wins out, that will put their RPI so high that they at least have to be recognized. Rice has some things that need to tip in their direction. WKU is just barely outside of the T25. If Rice beats them twice and they still find a way into the T25, that will really get Rice's case interesting if there are not clear favorites for a Regional Host. Rice also beat UCF, which could very easily end up as another T25 win (potentially 4). BYU as a regional host had 3 T25 wins, if I remember correctly from last year. Texas State, UTSA and LMU(x2) are borderline and could be Top 50 wins. Don't count out Ole Miss from finishing T25 if they and Stroup keep rolling in the SEC!
Part II - Top 16 Seeds Contenders
So those are my 8 favorites to end up as Top 4 seeds. These are the rest that are in best position for a Top 16 seed as a subregional host for the 1st/2nd rounds.
Marquette Golden Eagles (#9) - Marquette fell from the contending for a Top-4 seed when they lost to Creighton. I don't think it will be enough now even if they do win out. But, like Rice's scenario, if absolute chaos occurred, I imagine Marquette could be one of the first teams to benefit. Marquette has wins AT Wisconsin, AT BYU, and neutral court vs. UCF. Their best chance at a T4 obviously includes winning out and potentially two wins against Creighton. Given how weak the Big East is, and how strong Marquette is, it's really hard to see them falling from a Top 16 seed.
Kentucky Wildcats (#10) - Kentucky is always Grandma RPI's favorite granddaughter. They're going to finish with a great RPI even with some unexpected losses. I just think the committee will HAVE to punish them for losing to Georgia, Purdue, and Indiana at home. Louisville, Missouri, and Florida are great teams but I don't see how beating those teams alone should earn a Regional Host spot. Kentucky's RPI is going to be way too good to fall out of seeding territory, even if they end up with more than excpected losses.
Penn State Nittany Lions (#11) Penn State still has potential to get some big wins and hit a hot streak. Splitting with Pittsburgh was a lot more "acceptable" for them than it was for Pittsburgh. Penn State still has chances against Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Illinois(x2). Winning out would definitely put them into T4 seed contention. Penn State's only other signature OOC win besides Pitt was Iowa State. The jury is still out on how well Iowa State is going to finish, though they are expected to be the first team in line after the step down from Texas/Baylor. Penn State doesn't have a lot of room here though. If they don't win some games against the other Top teams in the B1G, it's hard to see them getting a seed, even with the big Pittsburgh win. But don't get it twisted, Penn State is definitely NOT in a position where they can breathe comfortably and get a seed. If Penn State loses 4 more games, their RPI goes into the danger zone. That's definitely not comfortable wiggle-room in the Big Ten. I would not want to face an unseeded Penn State team.
Creighton Bluejays (#12) Don't Doubt Bernstal-Booth! I seriously thought Creighton would not be in the position they are now after losing Kloth and Winters. But, they continue their dominance. They beat Marquette three times last year, and it looks like they want to do it again this year! Creighton is similar to other teams on this list in that they have really "good losses". Baylor, Nebraska, Washington. The problem is they don't have anyone else on the schedule of importance except Marquette. Beating Kentucky and Marquette (as many as 3x) will not be good enough for a T4 seed. Creighton is going to have a thin resume for a seed, but the top-heavy wins should probably be enough as long as they don't screw up in the Big East. Maybe St. John's could do it, but after that the Big East really looks awful.
BYU Cougars (#13) The WCC is down and that's really hurting BYU. They didn't do too much out of conference either, but they did notch two really big road wins, at Stanford and at Utah. Those road wins are really key for BYU to have a chance to host a subregional. There's no chance that BYU can get into the T4 seed discussion. I don't like the chances of San Diego finishing Top 25, so sadly it's merely a matter of BYU pretty much *not losing* the rest of their matches, versus winning and picking up significant victories along the way. I wouldn't be too comfortable if I was a BYU fan if they take some questionable WCC losses, but I wouldn't be too worried at the same time, given BYU's level of play.
California Golden Bears (#14) I had heard Cal was going to be much much better this season, but I imagined they would be towards bubble-team trajectory, barely making it into the tournament. They've completely turned it around under their new coach. They are still a very interesting case when it comes to RPI and where they might end up. Cal has a really bad strength of schedule. The OOC isn't doing them much favors. Colorado State beating everyone else is exactly what Cal needed. California still has potential to be a T4 seed, though. That would require winning out, winning both their rematch with Stanford and Washington. Extremely unlikely, which is why they are down here at #14. I don't expect Cal to go on that magical of a run, but I do think they will maintain a good record in the PAC. There is a reason why Pablo is in love with Cal!
Florida Gators (#15) Florida is not an easy team for me to position right now for any purpose. They've only lost to very solid teams, Minnesota, Stanford, and Kentucky. But they've also just got wins over Texas A&M and Louisville. I think the RPI will set up for them to be in a good position to get a seed, so it could be as simple as Florida taking care of business against the mid and bottom teams in the SEC. One win over Kentucky/Missouri/A&M will make them feel a lot better, while two could pretty much lock up a seed for the Gators. Don't worry Gators, it's extremely unlikely that you will be sent to UCF this year. On the other hand, it is looking quite likely that UCF will be sent to Florida!
Minnesota Golden Gophers (#16) Minnesota could be way better than this. It's kind of shocking for me to place them this low when you look at them on paper now. They've only lost to Texas, Wisconsin, and Florida State. As a matter of fact, Minnesota could easily be in the Top 4 seed discussion if they win out. But, given their injury-issue at setter and how they played at Madison, I'm worried about them really going on tear the rest of the season. Minnesota's strength-of-schedule is likely not going to end up as good as you'd expect from a Top B1G team. Minnesota needs Florida and Stanford to win as much as possible. The good news is that Minnesota does have Wisconsin and Nebraska remaining, and at home. They'll have their chances, but they've shown us reasons to doubt them, like dropping a set at home to Rutgers.......
Next in line:
17. Hawaii
18. Illinois
19. Utah
20. Colorado State
21. Cincinnati
22. Purdue
23. Missouri
24. Western Kentucky
25. Notre Dame
Part III - Conference Outlook (At-Large Potential Teams)
In this section, we'll focus on At-Large bids. I separated them into four groups. I also listed a predicted Champion and predicted at-large bids so far.
(1) One-bid conferences.
(2) Most likely one-bid conferences.
(3) Most likely multi-bid conferences.
(4) Guaranteed multi-bid conferences.
(1) The following conferences will be one-bid conferences:
America East (Champion: Albany)
Big South (Champion: Winthrop)
Big Sky (Champion: Northern Colorado)
Ivy League (Champion: Cornell)
Metro Atlantic (MAAC) (Champion: Fairfield)
Mid-Eastern (MEAC) (Champion: North Carolina A&T)
Northeast (Champion: Robert Morris)
Ohio Valley (Champion: Morehead State)
Patriot (Champion: Colgate)
SoCon (Champion: Samford)
SWAC (Champion: Prairie View A&M)
Western Athletic (Champion: New Mexico State)
(2) Most likely one-bid conferences.
Atlantic-10 (Champion: Dayton)
Atlantic-Sun (Champion: Florida Gulf Coast)
Colonial (Champion: Towson)
Mid-American (Champion: Central Michigan)
Missouri Valley (Champion: Illinois State)
Mountain West (Champion: Colorado State)
Southland (Champion: Stephen F. Austin)
Summit (Champion: South Dakota)
Sun Belt (Champion: Coastal Carolina)
(3) Most likely multi-bid conferences.
AAC (Champion: Cincinnati) At-Large: UCF, Southern Methodist
Big West (Champion: Cal Poly) At-Large: Hawaii, UCSB
C-USA (Champion: Rice) At-Large: Western Kentucky
Horizon (Champion: Wright State) At-Large: Northern Kentucky
WCC (Champion: BYU) At-Large: San Diego
(4) Guaranteed multi-bid conferences.
ACC (Champion: Pittsburgh) At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State
Big-10 (Champion: Wisconsin) At-Large: Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan
Big-12 (Champion: Baylor) At-Large: Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma
Big East (Champion: Creighton) At-Large: Marquette
Pac-12 (Champion: Stanford) At-Large: Washington, California, Utah, Southern California, Washington State, UCLA
SEC (Champion: Florida) At-Large: Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Teams that didn't make the cut but are being monitored closely for an at-large bid:
AAC: Tulsa, Tulane, Houston
A10: VCU
Horizon: Green Bay, Milwaukee
WCC: Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount
ACC: North Carolina, Miami-FL
Big 10: Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana
Big 12: TCU, Texas Tech
Big East: Saint John's, Villanova
Conference USA: UTSA
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, Oregon
SEC: South Carolina, LSU
Overview: Bracketology began in 2012. My goal has always been to predict which 32 teams get at-large bid into the NCAA into the tournament, to predict #1-16 seeds, and also to predict to which specific subregional (1st/2nd round) unseeded teams will be sent to. I achieve this by two main methods: (1) using the data that the NCAA handbook says it takes into consideration and (2) historical evidence/precedence set by prior committee decisions. #2 is tricky because you have to remember that the committee changes every year, and two different committees could make completely different decisions. This will be the 8th year of Bracketology.
This edition of Bracketology includes THREE parts. I probably won't be able to update this for at least a couple weeks, so I decided to go all out for ya'll in this edition.
Part 1: Most-likely to be Top 4 seed.
Part 2: Most-likely to be Top 16 seed.
Part 3: Conference Outlook. Predicted conference champion, predicted at-large bids.
Accuracy: In the previous 7 years, I've missed on 6 at-large teams, and 8 seeded teams. So, about 1 at-large and 1-seed per year. Complete history in 2nd post of this thread.
Before we get started...
Polite Request: Please do NOT quote the original post in its entirety. It's super long and clogs up the thread.
Part I - Regional Host (Top 4 Seed) Contenders
I was able to narrow it down to EIGHT teams that I think have the most likely chance of hosting a regional in December. I would think that it is almost a guarantee that three of four come from this grouping at this point, but you never know, wild things can happen!
There are the two important questions I ask myself when looking at who is in the running for a Top 4 seed:
(1) What is the team's potential path to a Top 4 seed? (i.e, winning out, beating Tougaloo, splitting with Marquette, etc)
(2) How likely is it that the team can actually follow that path, and deliver a resume that is capable of being a Top 4 seed.
I don't think one specific ranking such as RPI, RPI Futures, or Pablo is best for me to determine the best answer to those questions. I like to use all three, and my own gut feeling of how teams are playing and their potential to determine whether or not a team has a realistic shot. That being said, here we go!
Baylor Bears (#1). Baylor is 15-0, and has 6 wins against Top 25 teams, and 9 wins against Top 50 teams. Hawaii, Wisconsin, Creighton, Marquette, UCLA, and Missouri are their top wins. Wisconsin, Creighton, and Marquette are guaranteed excellent wins. UCLA and Missouri still have some questions, but they'll still most likely at worst end up T50 wins. It's gonna take multiple losses (outside of the Texas matches) to knock Baylor out of a Top 5 RPI. I think it's really hard to see Baylor not getting a Top 4 seed in December. It's pretty simple: Pack your bags, we're going to Waco, TX!
Texas Longhorns (#2). If we're talking #1 and #2 both being from the same conference, one would usually be thinking
Washington Huskies (#3) They really even surprise me being here. I made a rough draft of this Bracketology a couple weeks ago that I wasn't able to finish, and I had Washington up here at 3rd in line. I thought I'd look at the numbers again and by now it would have been easy to move them down. But, the truth is that Washington looks really good to host a regional if they can take care of business. They do not face Stanford again, and only get California once at home. Washington has REALLY good road wins: at Wisconsin, at Stanford, at Creighton. My main concern is Washington actually winning the rest of their matches. They've lost at USC and at Washington State, and nearly lost to Oregon at home. But, when you consider the relative strength of their remaining schedule and how their RPI numbers are looking up, it is easily understandable as to why Washington is so high on this list. The at Stanford win is really what gives them the extra edge here.
Stanford Cardinal (#4). This is going to be unique, depending on how many losses Stanford ends up taking. They've had an unprecedented brutal schedule thus far, and definitely taken some punches as they've dealt some blows as well. I can't take them out of the Top 4 for now. Wins against Texas, at Florida, vs. California, at Nebraska, and at Penn State propel them. They would certainly be ahead of Washington based on most criteria, but I think it's very important to value the H2H matchup between the Huskies and the Cardinal. It was on Stanford's home court. It will be very interesting to track Stanford vs. Washington in the T4 race, and see if both can get in. And - as skeptical as I am of Washington being able to do what's expected of them the rest of PAC-12 season - I'm still just as skeptical of Stanford. Last week Stanford had the Arizona's at home, but prior to that they had dropped a match in each week for three weeks straight.
Wisconsin Badgers (#5) There's a red-hot team in the B1G, and it's not Big Red. It's the Badgers! They're my clear favorite right now from the B1G to get a Regional seed. I think if they can create some distance from Nebraska particularly, they will have a really great chance. In the past two weeks, Wisconsin took down Penn State, Nebraska, and Minnesota. They'll have to face all three again, and two of which will be on the road. Wisconsin has "good losses", Washington(x2), Baylor, and Marquette. All still have a chance to be Regional Hosts. I feel pretty confident that Wisconsin has the best chance of any B1G contender. Not just by the numbers, but also by how they are playing.
Pittsburgh Panthers (#6) Pittsburgh will likely be a very interesting case. They've got a ton of wins right now against teams 26-70 in RPI, but just the one big victory over Penn State. They have Louisville(x2), Florida State, and Notre Dame remaining for big signature wins. Louisville is probably going to finish with a really good RPI -- but how sure can we be that Pittsburgh is actually going to win those matches? And trust me, I think Pittsburgh is loaded. They a really good complete TEAM. Their numerical RPI potential alone leads me to think that I should have them higher on this list, but the truth is they have a shaky resume. Splitting the home and home with Penn State just might not cut it when regional host selection time comes around, even if Pittsburgh has an RPI that puts them well in contention.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (#7) Nebraska still has a great chance at a regional as well, but they don't have a lot of margin for error. They've only lost two matches, to teams that are already higher favorites to get a regional seed (Wisconsin and Stanford). Nebraska gets the chance to avenge their loss at Wisconsin, which could be huge to determining if they have a serious shot at a Top 4 seed in December. Nebraska would be higher, but I think they could have done more OOC. Creighton is a very good win, but I'm not sure about what's going to be made of UCLA, Arizona, and San Diego. I'm still very unsure of how well this team is going to finish in the B1G. Another struggle for them is their B1G schedule. They only get Minnesota and Penn State once. Nebraska might be lacking on T25 victories -- especially when compared to other Top Power-5 teams.
Rice Owls (#8) Rice is my last serious contender for a Top 4 seed. It is going to probably require chaos and then some, but I think they're one of the first in line if that scenario did ensue. RPI Futures has Rice at #7 and that includes losing one more game. So, if Rice wins out, that will put their RPI so high that they at least have to be recognized. Rice has some things that need to tip in their direction. WKU is just barely outside of the T25. If Rice beats them twice and they still find a way into the T25, that will really get Rice's case interesting if there are not clear favorites for a Regional Host. Rice also beat UCF, which could very easily end up as another T25 win (potentially 4). BYU as a regional host had 3 T25 wins, if I remember correctly from last year. Texas State, UTSA and LMU(x2) are borderline and could be Top 50 wins. Don't count out Ole Miss from finishing T25 if they and Stroup keep rolling in the SEC!
Part II - Top 16 Seeds Contenders
So those are my 8 favorites to end up as Top 4 seeds. These are the rest that are in best position for a Top 16 seed as a subregional host for the 1st/2nd rounds.
Marquette Golden Eagles (#9) - Marquette fell from the contending for a Top-4 seed when they lost to Creighton. I don't think it will be enough now even if they do win out. But, like Rice's scenario, if absolute chaos occurred, I imagine Marquette could be one of the first teams to benefit. Marquette has wins AT Wisconsin, AT BYU, and neutral court vs. UCF. Their best chance at a T4 obviously includes winning out and potentially two wins against Creighton. Given how weak the Big East is, and how strong Marquette is, it's really hard to see them falling from a Top 16 seed.
Kentucky Wildcats (#10) - Kentucky is always Grandma RPI's favorite granddaughter. They're going to finish with a great RPI even with some unexpected losses. I just think the committee will HAVE to punish them for losing to Georgia, Purdue, and Indiana at home. Louisville, Missouri, and Florida are great teams but I don't see how beating those teams alone should earn a Regional Host spot. Kentucky's RPI is going to be way too good to fall out of seeding territory, even if they end up with more than excpected losses.
Penn State Nittany Lions (#11) Penn State still has potential to get some big wins and hit a hot streak. Splitting with Pittsburgh was a lot more "acceptable" for them than it was for Pittsburgh. Penn State still has chances against Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Illinois(x2). Winning out would definitely put them into T4 seed contention. Penn State's only other signature OOC win besides Pitt was Iowa State. The jury is still out on how well Iowa State is going to finish, though they are expected to be the first team in line after the step down from Texas/Baylor. Penn State doesn't have a lot of room here though. If they don't win some games against the other Top teams in the B1G, it's hard to see them getting a seed, even with the big Pittsburgh win. But don't get it twisted, Penn State is definitely NOT in a position where they can breathe comfortably and get a seed. If Penn State loses 4 more games, their RPI goes into the danger zone. That's definitely not comfortable wiggle-room in the Big Ten. I would not want to face an unseeded Penn State team.
Creighton Bluejays (#12) Don't Doubt Bernstal-Booth! I seriously thought Creighton would not be in the position they are now after losing Kloth and Winters. But, they continue their dominance. They beat Marquette three times last year, and it looks like they want to do it again this year! Creighton is similar to other teams on this list in that they have really "good losses". Baylor, Nebraska, Washington. The problem is they don't have anyone else on the schedule of importance except Marquette. Beating Kentucky and Marquette (as many as 3x) will not be good enough for a T4 seed. Creighton is going to have a thin resume for a seed, but the top-heavy wins should probably be enough as long as they don't screw up in the Big East. Maybe St. John's could do it, but after that the Big East really looks awful.
BYU Cougars (#13) The WCC is down and that's really hurting BYU. They didn't do too much out of conference either, but they did notch two really big road wins, at Stanford and at Utah. Those road wins are really key for BYU to have a chance to host a subregional. There's no chance that BYU can get into the T4 seed discussion. I don't like the chances of San Diego finishing Top 25, so sadly it's merely a matter of BYU pretty much *not losing* the rest of their matches, versus winning and picking up significant victories along the way. I wouldn't be too comfortable if I was a BYU fan if they take some questionable WCC losses, but I wouldn't be too worried at the same time, given BYU's level of play.
California Golden Bears (#14) I had heard Cal was going to be much much better this season, but I imagined they would be towards bubble-team trajectory, barely making it into the tournament. They've completely turned it around under their new coach. They are still a very interesting case when it comes to RPI and where they might end up. Cal has a really bad strength of schedule. The OOC isn't doing them much favors. Colorado State beating everyone else is exactly what Cal needed. California still has potential to be a T4 seed, though. That would require winning out, winning both their rematch with Stanford and Washington. Extremely unlikely, which is why they are down here at #14. I don't expect Cal to go on that magical of a run, but I do think they will maintain a good record in the PAC. There is a reason why Pablo is in love with Cal!
Florida Gators (#15) Florida is not an easy team for me to position right now for any purpose. They've only lost to very solid teams, Minnesota, Stanford, and Kentucky. But they've also just got wins over Texas A&M and Louisville. I think the RPI will set up for them to be in a good position to get a seed, so it could be as simple as Florida taking care of business against the mid and bottom teams in the SEC. One win over Kentucky/Missouri/A&M will make them feel a lot better, while two could pretty much lock up a seed for the Gators. Don't worry Gators, it's extremely unlikely that you will be sent to UCF this year. On the other hand, it is looking quite likely that UCF will be sent to Florida!
Minnesota Golden Gophers (#16) Minnesota could be way better than this. It's kind of shocking for me to place them this low when you look at them on paper now. They've only lost to Texas, Wisconsin, and Florida State. As a matter of fact, Minnesota could easily be in the Top 4 seed discussion if they win out. But, given their injury-issue at setter and how they played at Madison, I'm worried about them really going on tear the rest of the season. Minnesota's strength-of-schedule is likely not going to end up as good as you'd expect from a Top B1G team. Minnesota needs Florida and Stanford to win as much as possible. The good news is that Minnesota does have Wisconsin and Nebraska remaining, and at home. They'll have their chances, but they've shown us reasons to doubt them, like dropping a set at home to Rutgers.......
Next in line:
17. Hawaii
18. Illinois
19. Utah
20. Colorado State
21. Cincinnati
22. Purdue
23. Missouri
24. Western Kentucky
25. Notre Dame
Part III - Conference Outlook (At-Large Potential Teams)
In this section, we'll focus on At-Large bids. I separated them into four groups. I also listed a predicted Champion and predicted at-large bids so far.
(1) One-bid conferences.
(2) Most likely one-bid conferences.
(3) Most likely multi-bid conferences.
(4) Guaranteed multi-bid conferences.
(1) The following conferences will be one-bid conferences:
America East (Champion: Albany)
Big South (Champion: Winthrop)
Big Sky (Champion: Northern Colorado)
Ivy League (Champion: Cornell)
Metro Atlantic (MAAC) (Champion: Fairfield)
Mid-Eastern (MEAC) (Champion: North Carolina A&T)
Northeast (Champion: Robert Morris)
Ohio Valley (Champion: Morehead State)
Patriot (Champion: Colgate)
SoCon (Champion: Samford)
SWAC (Champion: Prairie View A&M)
Western Athletic (Champion: New Mexico State)
(2) Most likely one-bid conferences.
Atlantic-10 (Champion: Dayton)
Atlantic-Sun (Champion: Florida Gulf Coast)
Colonial (Champion: Towson)
Mid-American (Champion: Central Michigan)
Missouri Valley (Champion: Illinois State)
Mountain West (Champion: Colorado State)
Southland (Champion: Stephen F. Austin)
Summit (Champion: South Dakota)
Sun Belt (Champion: Coastal Carolina)
(3) Most likely multi-bid conferences.
AAC (Champion: Cincinnati) At-Large: UCF, Southern Methodist
Big West (Champion: Cal Poly) At-Large: Hawaii, UCSB
C-USA (Champion: Rice) At-Large: Western Kentucky
Horizon (Champion: Wright State) At-Large: Northern Kentucky
WCC (Champion: BYU) At-Large: San Diego
(4) Guaranteed multi-bid conferences.
ACC (Champion: Pittsburgh) At-Large: Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State
Big-10 (Champion: Wisconsin) At-Large: Nebraska, Minnesota, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan
Big-12 (Champion: Baylor) At-Large: Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma
Big East (Champion: Creighton) At-Large: Marquette
Pac-12 (Champion: Stanford) At-Large: Washington, California, Utah, Southern California, Washington State, UCLA
SEC (Champion: Florida) At-Large: Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Teams that didn't make the cut but are being monitored closely for an at-large bid:
AAC: Tulsa, Tulane, Houston
A10: VCU
Horizon: Green Bay, Milwaukee
WCC: Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount
ACC: North Carolina, Miami-FL
Big 10: Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana
Big 12: TCU, Texas Tech
Big East: Saint John's, Villanova
Conference USA: UTSA
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Pac-12: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, Oregon
SEC: South Carolina, LSU